I've been pretty torn on Yale - YSU. I actually feel like I should go to the game out of obligation to being local, but then I would miss every single other playoff game. I want to support the team and show up so the stands look fuller...I'm just one person though, would me being there really make a difference? Really tough here because game is the same time as Ohio State - Michigan and while I don't care about that game, pretty much 90% of every other football fan in this area does. One of the prior YSU games, YSU asked...the NCAA I guess, to move the start time of their playoff game to after the Ohio State - Michigan game. Not this year.
So I'm afraid there might not be a really great crowd for this one.
Yale was awesome last week and they could ride that momentum and toughness into this game, they out "toughed" Harvard for sure in that one. That mentality will help them here. But also, Yale is just 1-2 straight up vs playoff and bubble playoff teams. Beat Harvard, but lost to Dartmouth (very close) and lost to Lehigh in what was their week 3 (not very close to start but they played better 2H). Would assume they are more like last week rolling in here then at any point earlier in the season. But there is also something about that game that I don't know if they can duplicate. The run a lot, and honestly, the run game was effective, but it was just average. Pitsenberger is a strong RB, 143y last week, but it took him 38 attempts to get there (3.76ypc). And that is kind of typical. It is a grinding run game, not an explosive one. What was different for Yale last week? 14.4 yards per pass attempt - wow. That is nearly double their season average. Lots of big plays passing, Reno was great, their receivers were great, but not typical. YSU's D has shown vulnerable vs the pass especially the last 2 games, so that is a concern. But given what Yale did last week isn't what they normally have done vs anyone else this year, I question if we get a Yale O from their first 9 games, which is very good, but not great. Or we get the Yale O from last week which was great.
I don't know what was wrong with the Harvard O last week, they only had 31y on their first 4 drives. They did get it going mid-game but the hole had already been dug because Yale was so hot with their O. Yale D has 34 sacks in 10 games this year, but I think it is important to note that 13 came in 2 games vs Brown and Princeton, but still they good pressure team. Brungard is so difficult to sack - top 3 sacking Ds in the Valley: NDSU only got him 1, UND got him 2 and SDSU did get him 3x. But he escapes pressure and is willing to run, but has also shown some excellent passing ability this year (12-11 ratio last year 178.4ypg, 23-3 ratio this year 243ypg). It's mostly him running, but they have got Gilbert more involed too and he's been good this second half of the season. Tomczak is the leader at WR, but some good other options exist. It will be the best O Yale has played and better than Harvard's.
Yale is not an easy team to want to sell short, but I do believe in this YSU O and Brungard is possibly the best player in FCS this year. Their O could be held in check at times last year, but it has grown so much and Beau has gotten so much better, I must believe the Penguin O finds success as they have every game except for at UND in terms of points. Just 17 pts on UND, but Penguins moved it on them 377y and 6.0ypp - just 1 TD on 4 RZ trips however and drives stalled (5 of 19 3rd/4th down). That was in the Allerus Center though. Yale doing that in Youngstown would be quite a feat. YSU D makes me nervous, but I am kind of expecting the Yale pass O to revert back toward their average after what they did last week and the run game can be leaned on to grind out yards and clock if they want, but YSU should matchup fairly well vs that style. It is the pass D I'm most worried about.
I'm comfortable with YSU to win this one. PR shows the line will be lower than I thought, I would've guessed closer to 7, but it is looking more like 3/4? Total probably depends what Yale's gameplan is and I don't have a feel for how the score goes.
