wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
This is a dome game? Thought the total was high for an evening game in Idaho. From what I’ve read sounds like the Albany D could cause problems for Idaho’s oline. GL
Playoffs in the FCS
- Thread starter s--k
- Start date
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
| Time | Gm# | Team | Score | Opener | Bookmaker | Pincle | 5Dimes | Bovada | BOnline | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15 07:00 pm | 308921 308922 | Albany South Dakota St |
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| 12/16 12:00 pm | 308901 308902 | Howard Florida A&M |
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| 12/16 04:30 pm | 308923 308924 | No Dakota State Montana |
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I won't be around this week. Things get less interesting for me anyway at the end of the season - that is one thing that is the same from FBS to FCS for me. I will update the pick'em games midweek or by Thursday.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
NDSU head coach is going to USC as an assistant/LB coach, will coach through the playoffs
Was going to be on Montana this week regardless, great spot catching NDSU on their 3rd straight roadie possibly their best performance of the year. Should be a high scoring game but I'd rather have the Griz side, think if either team is sharp it will be the Griz off the one score victory.
Other game is impossible to bet for me, slight lean to under. SDSU defense will show up, think Albany defense will do well enough to keep SDSU from reeling off chunk plays but they should be able to run and move the chains for some sustained drives.
Was going to be on Montana this week regardless, great spot catching NDSU on their 3rd straight roadie possibly their best performance of the year. Should be a high scoring game but I'd rather have the Griz side, think if either team is sharp it will be the Griz off the one score victory.
Other game is impossible to bet for me, slight lean to under. SDSU defense will show up, think Albany defense will do well enough to keep SDSU from reeling off chunk plays but they should be able to run and move the chains for some sustained drives.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
SDST -22 vs UAlbany? Where are the big lines coming from? SDST luck to advance last week as a 20pt favorite.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Any thoughts on tonight?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
It was so windy that holding on to a snap was a victory. I put 0 weight into that game
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Why why why did they put this game on Sunday? I’ve seen some bizarre decision making but whoever thought this was a good idea instead of placing this on Saturday before the NFL gets started needs their head examined. Or how about tonight? Friday night isn’t a good ratings night but putting this on Sunday vs the NFL the ratings will be zero
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
And honestly I don't know what ABC/ESPN is doing with anything. They only put the FBS playoffs on ESPN but put the FCS on ABC?
Why not play it and noon Texas time on Saturday? That gives you 3.5 hours to play it before your NFL game starts. Do we really care if it goes over your BS countdown show?
Why not play it and noon Texas time on Saturday? That gives you 3.5 hours to play it before your NFL game starts. Do we really care if it goes over your BS countdown show?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
The time slot for this has been criticized a lot. I feel like ESPN puts it where they need the "inventory", as in some day and some time they simply have a void of programming = Sunday afternoon. Having it on network TV is nice exposure, but it comes at the price of going head-to-head with NFL Sunday. I don't know what their Friday and Saturday shows are, but they must feel those are more important than the FCS Tile.
For those playing our small pick'em ... I saw they locked the picks this afternoon. I changed that for tomorrow by kickoff, so a couple people don't have picks, but can enter them now. The leader and the winner will be "tpierce625" - who I'm not sure who that is here. But well done! 17 wins vs second place which is a tie with 13. So with a side and total, tpierce can not be passed. 2nd-5th can all change. And "mikelogg" certainly won the winning % race, if there was one, 8-1. That deserves mention, but unfortunately that was the only week they played.
I've shifted gears in life as I normally do. Might formulate some kind of opinion before kickoff tomorrow, maybe. I do want to say that FCS totally revitalized my handicapping this year. I loved so much about it. I had gotten stale and predictable, I spent more time and effort than I ever have and it was very rewarding. Thanks to everyone here that also follows along the lower division. I look forward to next season. If only we could get some win totals or conference odds.
For those playing our small pick'em ... I saw they locked the picks this afternoon. I changed that for tomorrow by kickoff, so a couple people don't have picks, but can enter them now. The leader and the winner will be "tpierce625" - who I'm not sure who that is here. But well done! 17 wins vs second place which is a tie with 13. So with a side and total, tpierce can not be passed. 2nd-5th can all change. And "mikelogg" certainly won the winning % race, if there was one, 8-1. That deserves mention, but unfortunately that was the only week they played.
I've shifted gears in life as I normally do. Might formulate some kind of opinion before kickoff tomorrow, maybe. I do want to say that FCS totally revitalized my handicapping this year. I loved so much about it. I had gotten stale and predictable, I spent more time and effort than I ever have and it was very rewarding. Thanks to everyone here that also follows along the lower division. I look forward to next season. If only we could get some win totals or conference odds.
As fcs teams move up to fbs do u plan to still handicap them giving you have a first mover advantage or just drop them since they will be fbs.....sam Houston and Jax state and James Madison recently...I believe there is more teams moving up you would have an edge on
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Thanks for doing the Pick em, s--k. I'm tpierce625 on it. I've been on OfficeFootballPool forever and didn't feel like switching my name.
And also thanks for the tireless efforts on FCS this year. FCS really saved my ass this year.
GL today.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Assuming thing stay the same with opening lines coming out day of game for FCS I plan to do the same thing I did this year. That really fits me. I literally need all week to digest and understand what happened the previous game, even though I might've watched it live, I watched it live with 6 or 7 other games at the same time all while trying to live bet and while also trying to catch opening lines for games that haven't started yet ... it takes me all week to figure out who I want to bet and I LOVE betting opening numbers. When they come out on Saturday morning. That just fits me so well. Opening lines coming out on Sunday or Monday like FBS, I have no chance, my mind is just not ready for that. Getting value on opening numbers is the number one thing that led to me being able to play so many favorites. Maybe it was just my nature, but when I don't know, let's just say Ole Miss for example, by the time I come around to looking at their current matchup and the line is let's say 17, well shit if it got bet up from 13.5 and that is the team I would've liked, it almost played mind tricks on me and thinking, well why not their opponent at that current number?
A lot of things really worked out for how I want to operate and everything. One other thing I loved was hearing less 'noise' about picks and games. Turn on any radio or TV show in the fall and every Tom Dick and Harry are making college picks. It polluted my mind because I hadn't yet decided who I liked now I have all this other stuff floating around in my head that may or may not be helpful.
I created my own spread sheet of the key weekly game statistics for every team. If I printed it off it would be well over 100 pages. That is my compiling my data every week and it was largely what I formed decisions on. I never did that before, because I could find some version of it on whatever websites, but not for FCS, so I did my own. Updating that alone took 2-3 days each week. I honestly don't have time for FBS games or teams if I am going to do things the same as I did this year. I would rather learn about and follow any Dll teams that may be moving up to FCS than keep tracking any FCS teams that might be going to FBS.
It was good, it was like a whole new world and less coverage on the sport, the way the lines come out, the whole process I have, the more crude TV broadcasts, schools from towns I've never heard of, diamonds in the rough on some of these players - that is exactly what I want again next year.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Frisco is like the Mecca for the FCS junkies and when the season was going I was like, "maybe I will go there some day", but now that it is here it is the same as it always is. I like college football in terms of watching it for what is next. When nothing is next, it's over. I don't want to go to the FCS Title game because I just don't care at this point in the year.
I haven't updated the spreadsheet since round 2 of the playoffs and I have almost forgotten so much of what happened this year.
South Dakota State is so hard to go against, they've been there, done it, so much experience, so good at what they do. They aren't the most explosive team, just execute their style so well, get great smart QB play, they can wear teams out with how sharp they are. So it kind of slowly, I say they can walk away with games. Or they can just jump on teams, but vs the better competition it is kind of a slow walk away with it, possession by possession, quarter by quarter.
Montana, I do worry, what if they offense doesn't come out the way it should or has. They've gotten past a couple good teams this year, NDSU, Montana St, Idaho, but nobody the level of SDSU and the Griz O hasn't had to try and go against a D like this. I think Montana can do it, but there is equal chance that SDSU puts the clamps on them.
I think for me Montana 1H+7.5 is what I would take. I like not having to commit full game on a team that I'm not 100% sure can or will hang for 4Q. Both these teams have been very good 1H teams and this is the best that both have faced, over a TD there. If I'm wrong then Montana will be like +20 at HT or maybe if Montana covers I can take SDSU at some kind of discount for the 2H. That is what I do when I really don't know what to expect but want to play a game and I really have not looked into the numbers or matchups.
I haven't updated the spreadsheet since round 2 of the playoffs and I have almost forgotten so much of what happened this year.
South Dakota State is so hard to go against, they've been there, done it, so much experience, so good at what they do. They aren't the most explosive team, just execute their style so well, get great smart QB play, they can wear teams out with how sharp they are. So it kind of slowly, I say they can walk away with games. Or they can just jump on teams, but vs the better competition it is kind of a slow walk away with it, possession by possession, quarter by quarter.
Montana, I do worry, what if they offense doesn't come out the way it should or has. They've gotten past a couple good teams this year, NDSU, Montana St, Idaho, but nobody the level of SDSU and the Griz O hasn't had to try and go against a D like this. I think Montana can do it, but there is equal chance that SDSU puts the clamps on them.
I think for me Montana 1H+7.5 is what I would take. I like not having to commit full game on a team that I'm not 100% sure can or will hang for 4Q. Both these teams have been very good 1H teams and this is the best that both have faced, over a TD there. If I'm wrong then Montana will be like +20 at HT or maybe if Montana covers I can take SDSU at some kind of discount for the 2H. That is what I do when I really don't know what to expect but want to play a game and I really have not looked into the numbers or matchups.
So you were more profitable in fcs ? ....do u feel it is easier with softer lines on the whole ? If so any idea how much example fcs turns a 56 percent handicapper into a 60 percent handicapper ?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I used to be what I considered a larger player, nickles and dimes, but for probably 15 years now it is 50s and bucks I'm trying to win. With that said, this has to have been the best year I've had in college. The bonuses at the 3 offshores I got certainly helped. I was able to meet all the rollovers and kept a little in each and came out way ahead on those. And my one MGM account, that would have some NFL action too, which is mostly live, but from what I put in and where it is pretty crazy. Oddly I am down with my local a few hundred on the year becaue of probably a total of 3 or 4 games that I played pregame NFL MLs and it didn't work out.
A lot of my success this year has been favorite money lines, which is odd because the underdog ML thing used to bring me a lot of excitement hitting those. Knowing certain college teams and playing favorite MLs on MGM and Bet Rivers were very profitable for me. Sure, I might lay like 3 or 4 to 1 in some cases, sometimes higher, but there is really only once in college FCS it bit me. Dartmouth loss at Colgate. It takes several wins to make up for a loss of that magnitude, but if you think about it, if you have a good feel on the underdogs who really shouldn't compete for wins, the favorite is going to win straight up more often than not. So I probably had maybe 3 to 6 favorite MLs per Saturday. And only the two domestic books I named offered them. Bovada would sometimes, but by kickoff they took them down. And I'd say I maybe got lucky on several live NFL MLs I did when I'd lay even 7 or 8 to 1 - those were live. I had to sweat some games, but the only ones I have lost were pregame ML favorite NFL MLs I did with my local.
That is the difference for me this year and what has led to the success.
In terms of point spreads...yes opening FCS point spreads are soft and if you have a good expectation of what teams should be able to do what, you get that opening number as quick as you can. This did not always win, crazy that some of the best sides and totals I got, like 7 pts better than the close would sometimes lose. This is where I should be smart and do more middling. I occasionally middle, but more would've been good. Especially the totals, a ton of movement and if you get the early open and they buy the other side on the close, that would've been a good strategy on many games.
For me it is all about the early opens on Saturday, the first opens. I really feel that I had a good idea what should happen and with some idea on what the opening line is compared to an early 5dimes line or maybe some of the sagarin or massey PR, when you see a line come out that you think is really good and is going to move, I would put my full amount on that. This is just basic handicapping stuff, but I had never done that before. I was always a 30 minutes before kickoff bettor with lines that had been out for 6 days. If it was a line I wasn't sure of or which way it might go, I'd take some at open and take a little more here or there as it moves, even if it moved against me, I would take some. Sometimes it moved with me and I got better lines than at open.
I was never able to get into Heritage. When this season started I did not know who would have the opening line. I assumed maybe it would be BOL or Heritage. In August I opened an account at BOL, Bovada and Bookmaker. Turns out Bookmaker was first and the best book for opening numbers. If I didn't have an account there I would not have been as successful. There were times that I had my entire balance gone at BM already and only half the lines were out. Thankfully the balance grew and by the end of the year I only had 1/2 or 1/3 out in bets when all the lines had been released.
That is the best I can explain it. My local missed me on Saturday I think, so he offered to take some FCS. I said, really you can't. Because of the openers. But he did let me play some 1H and 2Hs with him on lines I got off of maddux sports. I'd just screen shot it, and he was cool with that. I generally did well with those, maybe a couple days I lost overall on those for one reason or another.
It was a total different experience on Saturdays. Normally I'd put my entire day in, mostly by noon and watch the FBS games and maybe add a little here or there. With the FCS I was betting and watching for lines to roll out from what, 9am until probably 2 or 3 in the afternoon. I barely had time to do anything else except for watch for lines, anticipate which way they will move and spread my bets around to 6 books I used. It was so much fun. I'd have 8 games on TV and barely even look at them because I'm watching spreads. I had to tell some friends who used to come over on Saturday to skip it because I wouldn't be able to talk until probably mid afternoon. It might sound like a drag, but it was awesome.
And to add, still a sizable helping of good old situational handicapping. We all know this. But getting it right, sure team A should crush team B, but team A is in a sandwich or off a big game - not like I hit the dog in those situations, but it kept me off some of the favorites who should do whatever, but something just seems like they would be flat. The SoCon was a prime example of the ups and downs for teams this year in terms of situational handicapping. Still have to use all the tools in the tool box, but the favorite ML thing and getting the best opening numbers were the two big things that worked for me.
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Always want add, thanks for posting this. I sometimes bet these leagues(only upon advice here usually).
Always a good read brother and it’s appreciated that you post.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Thanks everyone. It feels strange when it’s over but I’ll be back again probably in August. I hope you all will too. I usually had a lot of the posts but the input of others is critical - I value it and more opinions are necessary. And I really want to thank those of you that joined in as the lines got released and we posted about them. Too bad carolinablue choose to stop but I’m happy he stopped for positive reasons of hitting a goal. I felt like he was a partner in crime as we grabbed early opens. He was really good…I’d be watching but sometimes I wouldn’t know a line opened until I saw him post it here and I’d be like ‘damn how’d he do that’
A lot of player movement is going to happen so will be a lot to sort out this summer.
A lot of player movement is going to happen so will be a lot to sort out this summer.
