Playoffs in the FCS

It is interesting to see that Bookmaker is last each week with their playoff lines. 5 of my 6 all have FCS playoff lines up by now, but BM does not - yet on a normal gameday Saturday they are always first and the others lag behind, sometimes lag behind by a lot!
 
Another theory on the YSU-Villanova matchup, YSU did go to a very heavy run and TOP game last week. They don't break many big runs vs the better teams, but they can grind out yards and keep drives going. I wonder if them knowing how some of their games have gone this year...the UNI game, the USD game, the Illinois St game - how the offenses for both teams went wild in those and knowing they have some issues in their pass coverage - either the players or their scheme or the players can't effectively run what they want or the system isn't crafted around what their players are capable of - however you look at it, their pass D is a liability. So knowing this, I wonder if YSU's game plan would be to get a time of possession edge, and by doing so maybe take a possession or two away from Villanova and thereby limiting their risk on the defense. Saying this with respect to the total, these teams look like they are each going to be in the 30s, but if YSU's gameplan is such to protect their defense then I'd be unhappy with an Over.
 
UT-Chattanooga and Furman is rematch from 11/4 where Furman won 17-14 as a small 1.5 pt road fav with a total of 52.5.

You know, Furman has gone Under now 7 straight since their bye week, prior to their bye their first 4 games all went Over (3 non-con and a league game).

Furman is only scoring 23.8 ppg their last 7. Two were with the backup QB, so 13 last time vs Wofford, but 37 vs VMI with the same backup - so it all averages out. Good for them the D has allowed just 13.7 over that same span.

UTC outgained them by 113y the last time, 357-244 (5.1-3.8). It was the Furman ST and D that came up with big plays to set up their own O while stopping the Mocs. They blocked a punt, but could only advance 5y and kicked a FG. Furman's next score was set up by an INT in the EZ which the Paladins ran out to midfield and a couple passes later had a 10-7 lead. UTC punted from their own EZ and starting at midfield, Furman converted a couple 3rd downs and was able to score the final pts. The 3 Furman scoring drives started at the C25, F46 and the 50. UTC scored on a 67 and 70 yard pass plays. The 70 yarder was a total fluke, the QB was hit, the ball wobbled into the air, but a receiver perfectly tracked it and ran for about 60y after catching it for the TD. Artopoeus was off on connecting for several other passes. That game saw Tyler Huff leave in the 2Q with injury and backup Carson Jones led the win. 2nd Tm SoCon DB Ryan Huff was edjected for targeting in the 1H. This week both Huffs will be back as well as leading rusher Roberto who missed the season finale. On the other side, UTC's Artopoeus who had a really good season, he will again be out (still holds on kicks) and Luke Schomberg will again get the start. Schomberg also started for the Mocs at Bama and in the upset win over Austin Peay last week. Bad news for UTC this week is two-time back-to-back SoCon D POY DE Jay Person was injured last week. As of mid-week he had not been ruled out for this game, one of the podcast guys said he was "out for year", but sometimes those things just get thrown around. I would think if he was out for the year, the coach wouldn't have said "we'll see" about him playing at his press conference this week. Mocs are also without their top RB, but are pretty deep there. WR group is really good unit (Mayes and Whatley both made 1st / 2nd Tm all conference media). UTC also has an outstanding OL. Furman placed more guys on the all conference list (3 to 2 media and 3 to 1 coaches) - however the UTC game notes are saying that PFF ranks them the top Div l OL in the nation (89.4 grade, Oregon is 89.3 grade) - if true that is a wow stat.

So Furman is healthier than they have been and obviously with the bye. Chattanooga is just plugging along with who they got. Last week I had said that their D can struggle vs strong offensive teams that are really good at one thing or balanced at both. That did not prove to be the case vs Austin Peay. UTC is a good D, I just thought that maybe they weren't as good as some of their numbers suggested. Vs Furman, Furman does not have a real daunting offense, I would think this is a good O for UTC to matchup against. They matched up well with them the first time, just the field position made it tough. Furman only ran it for 68y and 2.3ypc on them last time (half their yardage avg and almost 2 yards below their normal ypc). Furman only averaged 349 ypg for the year (5.2) and UTC held them 100y below that. Huff going out could've played a role there, but backup Jones played pretty well. Furman can get by with somewhat of a pedestrian offense because their D is so good. The D had some holes the first go around, like I said, UTC just missed on connecting for several plays. The Mocs moved it on them - they had three drives to the F35 or better result in 0 pts. Furman leads the SoCon in most D categories: scoring D (17.7), total D (323y 5.0), run D (90.5, 2.8), sacks (36), 3rd down D (32%). They do lead with 15 INTs, but also allow 61% and the SoCon has some strong passing teams (WCU and Samford and Chattanooga) bad passing teams (pretty much everyone else). UTC was 51% last time, but plays were there to be made. Furman allows 7.22 yards per pass, which is fairly weak.

Furman's D is statistically better, but Chattanooga is right there and vs a fairly conventional O - really I think both Ds should matchup pretty good. The total is currently sitting 11 pts lower than their November game and it is trending lower, so that sucks if you wanted the Under.

I'm sure this is a game that UTC felt they let get away from them at home. It's playoffs, so talk of motivation at this point doesn't work. For a conference opponent with revenge, maybe it matters just a little. Furman has been in the playoffs a lot, most recently 2022, 2019 and 2017. This is just their second home playoff game over the last dozen games. They hosted and beat Elon last year in Greenville, but before that you have to go back to 2004 for a home playoff game - they had 9 straight road playoff games before last year. So they beat Elon last year by 25 as 4.5 pt home fav, then lost but covered at UIW 41-38 catching 9.5. These two have never met in the playoffs. Furman's HC Hendrix is 5-2 vs UTC overall, while Wright the UTC HC is 2-3. This season is UTC's first playoff appearance since 2016 when they lost in the second round. Furman has won the last two in the series and UTC won the last two before that - 3 of 4 have been one score games:

2023 - 17-14 Furman (-1.5)
2022 - 24-20 Furman (+6)
2021 fall - 13-3 UTC (-10)
2021 spring 20-18 UTC (-6.5)

5 of the last 8 have been one score games.

If the injuries aren't too much for the Mocs, and their QB keeps up his play, this is going to be a game. Furman style of play wise is the weakest seeded team and I think would be the most likely of the 8 to lose out the gate of all of them. Vs a familiar in-conference foe that makes it tough as well. Kind of like the +7 here. Wish UTC was at full strength - will be a big deal if Person can't play.
 
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Going to wait it out and see if the South Dakota line drops more. Sac State O was on fire last week, but that was vs UND who is not a good defensive team. I think USD will offer considerable more resistance to the Hornet O and the biggest thing is USD's style will stress and break the Sac State D.

The SDSU line has gone up. I see Mercer scoring between 3 and 10 pts. Mercer D is decent and should make the Jacks earn what they get. Could see like a 34-7, 37-10 type game. So could see them hanging in this bloated line. And if Mercer scores one legitimate score, then SDSU would have to be up a ton to not be vulnerable to a late game backdoor score.

I like Montana State vs the Bison. NDSU has hammered them the last 4 in the series and as recently as 2021. NDSU doesn't have much experience playing outside in the postseason and this year, they haven't been as dominant away as they have at home this year and this is only guaranteed home game for the Cats. Think they find some answers in the bye and NDSU has shown vulnerable this year being beat by all 3 of the other Dakota schools, beat bad in 2 of 3. Montana State has lost their 3 biggest games, but they were right there at Idaho and SDSU. PR had them favored by 6 at Montana, now that was obviously wrong, but if their last game had them that much better than the #2 seed on the road, this line seems short home vs a good, but lesser team. This total seems high. I would think when these two play against each other that the defenses will be controlling most of the game, that would make getting Over 58.5 tough.

Don't like the line on the Delaware - Montana game.

I like Idaho to win. A couple head scratchers to close the year vs UNC and Weber, but SIU has their own head scratching games - like no O vs playoff teams (before last week that is). SIU just couldn't score vs playoff teams like NDSU (10 pts 206y), USD (7 pts 332y), SDSU (10 pts, 308y), YSU (3 pts 100y). Their best game of the year vs the highest quality opponent was all the way back in week 1 vs AP. Maybe Idaho seems hard to trust, but SIU is equally hard to trust. With the pts, sure I can see a close game, but Idaho wins I would be pretty sure.

Seems like I like all the favorites on the ML and most dogs with the pts. That is a tightrope walk on these TD and less spreads. Time to figure out how I set everything up.
 
Lull in the action here....

couple bad beats. Lost the SWAC title 1H Under in the final minute on PV's first and only TD of the 1H - offense sucked all 1H and then all of sudden FAMU just lets them go down the field like a knife through butter. I think I may give up on totals. Will have to look back over this year, but I'm pretty weak on totals. Was live betting 1H Albany, kept betting them and had a 1H -21.5. They were up 27-0 when they mishandled a punt muffed a punt with like :17 left and Richmond got a TD with :01 left to lose that one. I guess I could say that the Montana State was a bad beat on the blk'd xpt, but it was fitting they lost that game that way I suppose. Montana State had two opponents today, NDSU and their own ST unit. Missed two FGs on their first two possessions of the game, could've led 6-0, instead 0-0 and then got behind 0-7 instead of it being 6-7. That was their 4th game of the year that they missed 2 FGs. Weak!

Tried something today, took favorite ML and dog + pts in every game except for SDSU because there was no ML in that one. Hoped to hit both in atleast one of them. I like doing that in the 1H of NFL games, you can push the ML if they tie and hit the dog, or hit both, can't lose both. Juice at BM was advantageous on 3 of the 4 dogs. Think the SIU-Idaho game could hit fav win and dog cover. I didn't put anything in on Delaware - Montana St, probably should. Probably better that nobody offered NDSU-MTST live as I would've had all kinds of bets on MTST probably. I don't understand, DK and MGM offered live bets on every FCS game today, but neither ever offered NDSU-MTST. Offshores never offered shit live except for SWAC
 
Definitely no reason for me to have a BOL account next year. I will probably keep Bovada as they have some options. Got to keep BM if they are going to be first out with lines still. I like the DK platform the best of the US books I use, but don't like what they offer for FCS. I;ve been fairly happy with MGM except they stopped doing FCS MLs the last two weeks of the season, but they made up for it with all the live they offered today. BR is good to keep for some different lines and odds, but I have been using them less and less. I only put one bet in at BR today and none at Bovada and one at BOL. MGM got a shit ton of my action today, 30+ bets with MGM. That's what I like
 
DK defintely has limitations with bet selection in general & specifically FCS. Sucks that they only offer straight plays & won't allow point buying, parlays or teasers of any kind.
 
Special teams again, Montana State misses two FGs and blk'd xpt leading to loss and SIU allows punt ret TD and then allows penetration on potential game winning FG and that kick gets blk'd, then they lose in OT. Man I had a shit ton of live on Idaho, glad that worked out, but feel really lucky. I've never been able to out quick the live plays on NFL but every now and then you get them in the college games. Submitted an Idaho ML play as the Vandal punt returner was running it back. Of course a lot still needed to go right after that, but odds were really good at that time.
 
s--k said:
Special teams again, Montana State misses two FGs and blk'd xpt leading to loss and SIU allows punt ret TD and then allows penetration on potential game winning FG and that kick gets blk'd, then they lose in OT. Man I had a shit ton of live on Idaho, glad that worked out, but feel really lucky. I've never been able to out quick the live plays on NFL but every now and then you get them in the college games. Submitted an Idaho ML play as the Vandal punt returner was running it back. Of course a lot still needed to go right after that, but odds were really good at that time.
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I as well had the Vandals live ML & +pts. You don't mind staying up late when it works in your favor
 
1701654303631.png

12/08
09:00 pm		308903
308904		Furman
Montana
46
-16½
12/09
12:00 pm		308905
308906		Villanova
South Dakota St
47
-21½
12/09
02:30 pm		308907
308908		No Dakota State
South Dakota
-6½
45½
12/09
10:00 pm		308909
308910		Albany
Idaho
48½
-6½
 

Attachments

1701800862871.png

2023 Second Round saw 6 favs cover, 2 dogs with 1 upset. Home teams were 6-2 ATS. 5 Overs, 3 Unders. That brings the last 3 year second round totals to:

2021-2023 Second round:

Favorites 15 (62.5%) / Dogs 9 (2 upsets, 8.3% upset wins)
Overs 15 / Unders 9
Home teams 17-7 ATS, 22-2 SU
Home favs 15-7 ATS, 21-1 SU -or- said another way Favored seeded teams 15-7 ATS, 21-1 SU
Home dogs 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU -or- said another way Dogged seeded teams 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU

Favorites 1-7.5 : 7-5 ATS & 10-2 SU
Favorites 8-13.5 : 3-3 ATS & 6-0 SU
Favorites 14-20.5 : 3-1 ATS & 4-0 SU
Favorites 21+ : 2-0 ATS & SU

*note one of the "upsets" was a dogged seeded team at home knocking off an at-large road fav (#7 ETSU+3 beat Kennesaw 2021). The other upset was an atlarge road dog beating a seeded home team (NDSU+3 beat #6 MTST 2023). One home team that lost (dogged) was 2021 #4 Sac State, SDSU won 24-19 as a 7pt road fav and the other was home fav 2023 MTSU.

2021-2023 First Round:

Favorites 13 (56.5%) / Dogs 10 (6 upsets, 26% upset wins)
Overs 14 / Unders 10
Home teams 15-9 ATS & 19-5 SU
Home favs 13-9 ATS & 17-5 SU
Home dogs 1-0 ATS & SU

Favorites 1-7.5 : 6-4 ATS & 8-2 SU
Favorites 8-13.5 : 2-2 ATS & 4-0 SU
Favorites 14-20.5 : 1-2 ATS & 2-1 SU
Favorites 21+ : 6-0 ATS & SU
*note one game was pick'em that is why some records only add to 23 rather than 24

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2021-2022 Quarter finals:

Favorites 4 (50%) / Dogs 4 (2 upset, 25% upset wins)
Overs 4 / Unders 4
Home teams 3-5 ATS, 5-3 SU
Home favs 3-4 ATS, 5-2 SU
Home dogs 0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU
Favored seeded teams vs unseeded teams 0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU
Favored unseeded teams or seeded teams 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU


Favorites 1-7.5 : 1-1 ATS & 1-1 SU
Favorites 8-13.5 : 2-1 ATS & 2-1 SU
Favorites 14-20.5 : 1-2 ATS & 3-0 SU
Favorites 21+ : 0-0

The upsets were #8 MTST+9.5 winning at #1 SHSU 2021 and #7 UIW+6 winning at #2 Sac State 2022. There was only 1 unseeded team make it to the quarters the 2021-2022 and that favored unseeded team was SDSU -7 winning at #5 Villanova in 2021.

One take away from those numbers, home field advantage may mean less as the quality of road teams increases as the rounds go on, home teams just 3-5 ATS in the quarter-final round the last two years, 37.5% vs 17-7 ATS, 70.8% in the second round the last 3 years. If I include the semis, home teams are 3-1 ATS the last two years, that would bring the quarters and semi home team record to 6-6 ATS '21-22.
 
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KJ said:
Man tough to call the FCS quarters degen, not like we're talking ping pong here. These games are more important than 90% of the bowl games.
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If you have any info on these teams feel free to share. Degen in a way that on a Friday night it’ll be tough to stay home to watch Furman and Montana, especially when this spread is 18.
 
Leans for now

Furman
SDSU
NDSU
Albany/Idaho over

DK has Furman +17 but I'm seeing 17.5 everywhere else so might as well wait for the hook. If not I'll just use MGM but don't enjoy their live betting as much. SDSU defense should be able to hold Nova down to 10 or less at home I think so -21 isn't much a concern. A little concerning that NDSU opened at 7 and dropped to 6.5 but I'll pay to see USD stay within a TD of the bullies. A bit concerning that USD only put up 31 on Sac St at home and NDSU sits in a pretty good spot having gotten that massive game at Mont St off their back. Hangover is possible but NDSU should have years of confidence to use in this matchup. Final match, I do like Albany at +6 but now that it's down to 4.5 I lean over. Tough one for me because both defenses played well last week and with Idaho skating by in OT, think the home field makes a ton of difference here. Indoors on a fast track, game sets up for scoring I believe. Albany defense isn't SIU, I believe the Vandals should have some success after dealing with that last week.

None played of yet but Furman will be. The Grizz obviously turned it around from when they had no identity earlier in the year but I have a feeling there's still some of that mentality in there at times, simply think 17 is too many in this one. Haven't checked the forecast yet.
 
KJ said:
Leans for now

Furman
SDSU
NDSU
Albany/Idaho over

DK has Furman +17 but I'm seeing 17.5 everywhere else so might as well wait for the hook. If not I'll just use MGM but don't enjoy their live betting as much. SDSU defense should be able to hold Nova down to 10 or less at home I think so -21 isn't much a concern. A little concerning that NDSU opened at 7 and dropped to 6.5 but I'll pay to see USD stay within a TD of the bullies. A bit concerning that USD only put up 31 on Sac St at home and NDSU sits in a pretty good spot having gotten that massive game at Mont St off their back. Hangover is possible but NDSU should have years of confidence to use in this matchup. Final match, I do like Albany at +6 but now that it's down to 4.5 I lean over. Tough one for me because both defenses played well last week and with Idaho skating by in OT, think the home field makes a ton of difference here. Indoors on a fast track, game sets up for scoring I believe. Albany defense isn't SIU, I believe the Vandals should have some success after dealing with that last week.

None played of yet but Furman will be. The Grizz obviously turned it around from when they had no identity earlier in the year but I have a feeling there's still some of that mentality in there at times, simply think 17 is too many in this one. Haven't checked the forecast yet.
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I saw BOL had it at 18.5 this morning and now it’s back down to 17.
 
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Reactions: KJ
TahoeLegend said:
Got any feel for Montana/Furman on Friday night, S--K?
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I haven't thought about it, but will now.

First of all, weather. Rain and snow currently in Missoula, but shows that should stop by game time, but cold around freezing. Furman is of course in South Carolina.

Furman is a grind out offense, stay on the field, own time of possession and play to their defense. They do not score much and even when they are good at gaining yards on their drives/games, they have failed to maximize their scoring opportunities. When the season started, in their first 4 games they scored 15 TDs on 19 RZ trips (79%). Since their bye week, in the 8 games to follow, Furman has scored just 16 TDs on 33 RZ trips (48%). Even last week in the playoffs vs UTC, just 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips. Also since that bye, the last 8 games, Unders a pefect 8-0 (avg total 50.8 - avg total the last 3 games 42.5 and those last 3 went Under by an avg of a little more than 7 ppg). Of course they have not played offensive teams like Montana. Their game vs Samford was 27-21 (total was 60), game vs WCU was 29-17 (total was 63.5). Games vs UTC were 17-14 and 26-7 with totals of 52.5 and 40.5. Furman gets away with less than impressive offensive explosiveness and scoring because of a top D - especially run D and outstanding turnover margin (24 gained TOs, only 8 lost). It really is complimentary offense-defense. O doesn't turn it over and the D turns the opponents over which helps set up their O in good field position.

Furman is 1-0 ATS/SU as a dog vs FCS this year (WCU), 1-1 ATS/SU overall with their other dog role coming at USCe. Last year in the playoffs they won their first round home game 31-6 vs Elon then they covered as 9.5 pt dogs at UIW, losing 38-41. Furman has not played a Big Sky team since 2006.

Montana has been massacring teams. They either jump on them quick (led at HT 35-12 last week vs Delaware, 20-0 vs MTST, 24-3 vs Portland St, 20-7 vs Idaho), or they play a little closer in the 1H and then just smoother in the 2H (only led Sac St 21-7 HT, but won 34-7 - only led UNC 14-0 HT, won 40-0). Griz can do it by ground (avg 245 ypg rushing last 5 games) or air (217ypg passing last 5 with good 14.96ypc in those). While the Griz D held Sac State and Montana State well below their per game yardage avg and limited them to just 7 pts each! Delaware was actually better than expected I think last week - after Montana jumped out to a 16-0 1Q lead, Delaware started getting some plays on them.

This game, I think it might go a little like the Furman at South Carolina game. In that game, Furman was pretty competitive early. That game was 7-7, 14-14 and it was just 20-14 SC with under 1min left in the 1H. SC got a 53y pass to start a final minute drive and they scored a TD in the final seconds of the 1H and then Furman struggled in the 2H of that one and lost big.

Huff is put the team on his shoulders type QB. He'll run it, might run it a lot and he's a good enough passer. I might think that he can will the Furman O to be in this game for a bit. After that Montana D should be good enough to restrict this limited offense. Question is how good will Furman D be vs the Montana O? Don't know. Not many defenses have faired well vs this balanced Montana O the last 7 games. Idaho probably did the best job, but that was in the Kibbie dome. Hard to see Furman in the cold keep the Griz O down for 4Q in Wa-Griz stadium.

I will play Furman +10 1H
 
Pick'em players at officefootballpool - the games and lines are up. I did them Wednesday night if you haven't got your picks in yet.
 
Lines are crashing! Down to 14. BOL moved 1H from 10 to 9, now 8.5. Bovada still has 9.5 1H and under Bovada's alt lines Furman is +17 even, +17.5 -110 whereas their normal Furman line is +14 -110
 
s--k said:
I haven't thought about it, but will now.

First of all, weather. Rain and snow currently in Missoula, but shows that should stop by game time, but cold around freezing. Furman is of course in South Carolina.

Furman is a grind out offense, stay on the field, own time of possession and play to their defense. They do not score much and even when they are good at gaining yards on their drives/games, they have failed to maximize their scoring opportunities. When the season started, in their first 4 games they scored 15 TDs on 19 RZ trips (79%). Since their bye week, in the 8 games to follow, Furman has scored just 16 TDs on 33 RZ trips (48%). Even last week in the playoffs vs UTC, just 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips. Also since that bye, the last 8 games, Unders a pefect 8-0 (avg total 50.8 - avg total the last 3 games 42.5 and those last 3 went Under by an avg of a little more than 7 ppg). Of course they have not played offensive teams like Montana. Their game vs Samford was 27-21 (total was 60), game vs WCU was 29-17 (total was 63.5). Games vs UTC were 17-14 and 26-7 with totals of 52.5 and 40.5. Furman gets away with less than impressive offensive explosiveness and scoring because of a top D - especially run D and outstanding turnover margin (24 gained TOs, only 8 lost). It really is complimentary offense-defense. O doesn't turn it over and the D turns the opponents over which helps set up their O in good field position.

Furman is 1-0 ATS/SU as a dog vs FCS this year (WCU), 1-1 ATS/SU overall with their other dog role coming at USCe. Last year in the playoffs they won their first round home game 31-6 vs Elon then they covered as 9.5 pt dogs at UIW, losing 38-41. Furman has not played a Big Sky team since 2006.

Montana has been massacring teams. They either jump on them quick (led at HT 35-12 last week vs Delaware, 20-0 vs MTST, 24-3 vs Portland St, 20-7 vs Idaho), or they play a little closer in the 1H and then just smoother in the 2H (only led Sac St 21-7 HT, but won 34-7 - only led UNC 14-0 HT, won 40-0). Griz can do it by ground (avg 245 ypg rushing last 5 games) or air (217ypg passing last 5 with good 14.96ypc in those). While the Griz D held Sac State and Montana State well below their per game yardage avg and limited them to just 7 pts each! Delaware was actually better than expected I think last week - after Montana jumped out to a 16-0 1Q lead, Delaware started getting some plays on them.

This game, I think it might go a little like the Furman at South Carolina game. In that game, Furman was pretty competitive early. That game was 7-7, 14-14 and it was just 20-14 SC with under 1min left in the 1H. SC got a 53y pass to start a final minute drive and they scored a TD in the final seconds of the 1H and then Furman struggled in the 2H of that one and lost big.

Huff is put the team on his shoulders type QB. He'll run it, might run it a lot and he's a good enough passer. I might think that he can will the Furman O to be in this game for a bit. After that Montana D should be good enough to restrict this limited offense. Question is how good will Furman D be vs the Montana O? Don't know. Not many defenses have faired well vs this balanced Montana O the last 7 games. Idaho probably did the best job, but that was in the Kibbie dome. Hard to see Furman in the cold keep the Griz O down for 4Q in Wa-Griz stadium.

I will play Furman +10 1H
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Excellent assessment!

What about the two games South Dakota teams are playing tomorrow? I see Stanford Steve made South Dakota his number one play tomorrow
 
anyone looking at the Jack Legs today? They seem to be so superior at all phases. Seems like suicide to take the 20'
 
s--k said:
I haven't thought about it, but will now.

First of all, weather. Rain and snow currently in Missoula, but shows that should stop by game time, but cold around freezing. Furman is of course in South Carolina.

Furman is a grind out offense, stay on the field, own time of possession and play to their defense. They do not score much and even when they are good at gaining yards on their drives/games, they have failed to maximize their scoring opportunities. When the season started, in their first 4 games they scored 15 TDs on 19 RZ trips (79%). Since their bye week, in the 8 games to follow, Furman has scored just 16 TDs on 33 RZ trips (48%). Even last week in the playoffs vs UTC, just 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips. Also since that bye, the last 8 games, Unders a pefect 8-0 (avg total 50.8 - avg total the last 3 games 42.5 and those last 3 went Under by an avg of a little more than 7 ppg). Of course they have not played offensive teams like Montana. Their game vs Samford was 27-21 (total was 60), game vs WCU was 29-17 (total was 63.5). Games vs UTC were 17-14 and 26-7 with totals of 52.5 and 40.5. Furman gets away with less than impressive offensive explosiveness and scoring because of a top D - especially run D and outstanding turnover margin (24 gained TOs, only 8 lost). It really is complimentary offense-defense. O doesn't turn it over and the D turns the opponents over which helps set up their O in good field position.

Furman is 1-0 ATS/SU as a dog vs FCS this year (WCU), 1-1 ATS/SU overall with their other dog role coming at USCe. Last year in the playoffs they won their first round home game 31-6 vs Elon then they covered as 9.5 pt dogs at UIW, losing 38-41. Furman has not played a Big Sky team since 2006.

Montana has been massacring teams. They either jump on them quick (led at HT 35-12 last week vs Delaware, 20-0 vs MTST, 24-3 vs Portland St, 20-7 vs Idaho), or they play a little closer in the 1H and then just smoother in the 2H (only led Sac St 21-7 HT, but won 34-7 - only led UNC 14-0 HT, won 40-0). Griz can do it by ground (avg 245 ypg rushing last 5 games) or air (217ypg passing last 5 with good 14.96ypc in those). While the Griz D held Sac State and Montana State well below their per game yardage avg and limited them to just 7 pts each! Delaware was actually better than expected I think last week - after Montana jumped out to a 16-0 1Q lead, Delaware started getting some plays on them.

This game, I think it might go a little like the Furman at South Carolina game. In that game, Furman was pretty competitive early. That game was 7-7, 14-14 and it was just 20-14 SC with under 1min left in the 1H. SC got a 53y pass to start a final minute drive and they scored a TD in the final seconds of the 1H and then Furman struggled in the 2H of that one and lost big.

Huff is put the team on his shoulders type QB. He'll run it, might run it a lot and he's a good enough passer. I might think that he can will the Furman O to be in this game for a bit. After that Montana D should be good enough to restrict this limited offense. Question is how good will Furman D be vs the Montana O? Don't know. Not many defenses have faired well vs this balanced Montana O the last 7 games. Idaho probably did the best job, but that was in the Kibbie dome. Hard to see Furman in the cold keep the Griz O down for 4Q in Wa-Griz stadium.

I will play Furman +10 1H
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Great call
 
Good game last night. I was happy how everything went...although I could've done without the last Furman as it cost me two live Unders. If that 2pt conversion would've failed instead of being stopped by penalty I would've split the live Unders, xpt made one go Over. But was good. Thought the highest scoring period wager could be in jeopardy in OT, I paid the steep odds at BOL and took the 1Q during that 28 pt 1Q, but then they scored 22 in the 4Q and OT and had Furman scored again and if BOL groups 4Q+OT together it would've lost. I've actually rarely play any prop bets like that. A bad 4Q of offense out of the Griz nearly cost them, really the entire 2H - but credit to Furman D for doing what few have been able to do vs them.

TahoeLegend said:
What about the two games South Dakota teams are playing tomorrow? I see Stanford Steve made South Dakota his number one play tomorrow
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That is interesting it is his favorite play, although there is not much to choose from. Takes a contrarian belief to take USD there, for as hot as NDSU is and the hype and attention they are receiving right now. But I like USD. It's not a great series for USD vs the Bison. Before their upset win in Fargo this year, NDSU had beaten the Yotes by atleast 17 pts the last 5 games. NDSU is good, not quite the same this year and obvisously USD is very much different than their typical years.

One thing that surprised me last week in the NDSU - MTST game was the offense by both teams. I thought the Ds would have an edge, but that wasn't the case at all. In fact MTST's 509 ttl yards (8.6ypp) - that exceeds their season average and it was their best passing day vs a quality team all year. MTST has a hard time making plays passing vs good teams, but not last week. I thought MTST kept NDSU in that game early with the stalled drives and missed kicks. That is what NDSU is awful at this year, getting in a hole and trying to play catch up. USD led 21-3 HT vs Bison the first time. UND got out 21-7 and 24-10 in the 1H vs them. And somewhat predicatably SDSU led 20-9 HT. Maybe not defensively, but the MTST O was positioning themselves to get out ahead similarly, but all their first three possessions of that game should've led to pts, but they only got 7 out of those and it was a back-and-forth game from there.

So the fact that MTST had all those yards (they outgained NDSU by 135y) and failed to capitalize on their possessions was a concern I think for the Bison D. On the other hand you could say their D prevented those scores and it reflects well on them. One area the Ds did do well last week was on 3rd down, both of them only combined to convert 5-of-19 on 3rd down - it was just so many big plays. 3rd down conversion O has been a problem for NDSU in their road games. True away games 37.5% 3rd down, home 56%. Their overall yardage is down on the road too. Just 374 last week, on the year away from home Bison avg 399 (a 534 game at Mizzou St helps the avg - 365.5 in the other 4) - while at home Bison avg 469 and it was these South Dakota Coyotes who held them to a Fargo Dome ssn low 348 ttl yards last time they played (5.4ypp).

So I think NDSU is a little weaker on the road, have some 3rd down issues and face a D that performed well vs them earlier this year. USD is a better D in limiting yards and points, NDSU is a better D in creating havoc, but they give up some plays at times.

USD O is really unpredictable. They have been held under 200y twice this year, won and lost one there. But then they also put up 475 on YSU. NDSU did limit them to just 269 ttl yards last time - but it was good enough for 7.1ypp!

I certainly would not be surprised if NDSU wins, but I see the line at 7, it is hard for me to pass up taking those points. History says favorite in this series, but this year tells a different story I believe. USD is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year with 2 of 3 outright upset dog wins vs FCS. NDSU is 8-3 ATS as a fav, lost straight up in 2 of their 3 spread losses. NDSU has had two totals closed in the 40s this year, they both went Under. Just about all USD totals are lined in the 40s, Unders are 6-2-2 on my count. I thought last week would be an Under for Bison-Cats, that was in the upper 50s. This one in the upper 40s feels like an Under as well, but totals are tough for me.

I would take the +7 and expect a tight game, but I would not want to ML the Yotes.
 
Not much time to say much about the Nova - SDSU game. I have been a fan of Villanova a lot this year. They have a QB who can run for 100 or pass for 300 any given game. Pretty balanced O. I think their O might be able to score more than 10. I know SDSU is off shutouts two of their last 3 - but they also won by just 17 and 18 in two of their last 4. 7-4 is a good ATS record, but half of their games have fallen in the 21 pt or less margin as well ... and this line is 20.5/21. I don't know. I've made no bets today and it's time to get some things figured out.
 
s--k said:
Definitely no reason for me to have a BOL account next year. I will probably keep Bovada as they have some options. Got to keep BM if they are going to be first out with lines still. I like the DK platform the best of the US books I use, but don't like what they offer for FCS. I;ve been fairly happy with MGM except they stopped doing FCS MLs the last two weeks of the season, but they made up for it with all the live they offered today. BR is good to keep for some different lines and odds, but I have been using them less and less. I only put one bet in at BR today and none at Bovada and one at BOL. MGM got a shit ton of my action today, 30+ bets with MGM. That's what I like
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I’m trying to figure out why I’m still using BOL. They have very few alternate lines, especially half lines. Their teasers are pricier. If you push a game in a teaser you lose.
 
wiseplayer said:
I’m trying to figure out why I’m still using BOL. They have very few alternate lines, especially half lines. Their teasers are pricier. If you push a game in a teaser you lose.
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I don't really understand some of the offshore books. Yesterday Bovada had all kinds of offers on the Furman - Montana game maybe an hour or more before the game. I bet alternate lines and totals pregame. Then as the game got closer, maybe 30 minutes, they took all that down and just had normal sides, totals and MLs. I have seen Bovada put up MLs earlier on a Saturday for the FCS games, but then they remove them. And BOL, you are offering a 1H side and total, why not offer a 1H ML too? I know FCS is a limited market and I guess they don't want the exposure, but it comes off as weak and timid I think. I never really noticed how BOL does in-game, they did have some interesting offers in-game.
 
I think back in the day 5dimes would let you pay more in vig for a "ties push" teaser than the normal vig
 
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TD Nova. Missed PAT. With this wind and watching, I don't see much difference in the two right now.
 
Oh wow. Punt block scoop and score for SDSU. Wow that just changed the whole game.
 
Special teams plays have been critical in determining the outcome of several playoff games this year. Last week the SIU-Idaho game (punt ret, missed potential game winning FG), NDSU-MTST (two missed FGs and blk'd xpt on tying try), Furman-Montana (kick and punt return TDs) and today (blk'd punt for TD, missed xpt so far)
 
North Dakota State restored the order in that series.

Think I'm going to be lazy and just live bet the Albany - Idaho game. Idaho had a lot of trouble with the SIU DL and Albany has two outstanding DEs, so that is going to be an important area for either team to have success vs the other. Albany's OL when they played their two FBS schools showed to be pretty overmatched themselves, but they haven't seen that kind of group in the CAA. Earlier in the season I even thought the Danes OL may be a weakness, just hasn't shown to be vs the FCS however. So I guess line play is where I'm going to watch. Difficult travel and away stadiums should not be too much trouble for Albany, maybe the dome aspect, not sure. I think Idaho has played better competition in terms of league play Big Sky vs CAA. Idaho has not always played especially well however. Tough game really. Home teams are 0-3 ATS in this round...2-1 SU.
 
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