For my first post............
0.625/0.50 NYR to win.
Basically I believe the following:
- Henrik Lundqvist will rebound at home. He let in some poor goals last game.
- Marc Staal will be about as effective as he was in his first game back, as he will tonight. Dramatic improvement is probably being unrealistic.
- Brian Boyle, Ryan Clowe, and Derek Dorsett make this team completely different. Washington doesn't have an overly rugged team. They also have no grind line. I feel they can be worn down. The three players listed can do this.
- Torts plays the hell out of his best players. Always has, look at Tampa. At some point Nash is going to have a multi goal game. I think he scores tonight (based purely on shooting percentages).
-Earlier in the year this line was -170. Now I think it should be more expensive than it is, but considerably less than -170. Either way, there is value here imo, though the exact amount is debatable.
-Caps are ahead on aggregate goals in the series by 2. TSN analyst Scott Cullen provides a great resource before each round guessing at the total number of aggregate goals for / against. He's usually in the ballpark more than he's not (I tried to link reference but it won't let me) and I wouldn't be surprised if today was the day some of those averages even out (Nash, aggregate goals ect.)
Downfall to this bet, is it's a bet. Best laid plans can go to shit real fast, especially with Tortorella coaching. I feel he's more of an emotional liability than anything, particularly behind closed doors. Also, Ovechkin is "due" by Ovechkin standards this year. Still, you're getting a NYR team that only lost 6 times in regulation at home in the shortened season against a .500 team on the road and the juice isn't overly bad to do so.
Haven't looked up refs yet, and doubt I will bother. On a side note I was told that Kelly Sutherland, guy who reffed the Canucks game last night grew up in Richmond BC. In 19 of the last 20 Canucks games Sutherland has reffed, he has called more total penalty minutes on the Canucks than the other team. Assuming that total minor PIMS in a game is a 50/50 prop, 19+/20 is running you at around 55,000 to 1. Mix in a make up call someone there eh Kelly.
0.625/0.50 NYR to win.
Basically I believe the following:
- Henrik Lundqvist will rebound at home. He let in some poor goals last game.
- Marc Staal will be about as effective as he was in his first game back, as he will tonight. Dramatic improvement is probably being unrealistic.
- Brian Boyle, Ryan Clowe, and Derek Dorsett make this team completely different. Washington doesn't have an overly rugged team. They also have no grind line. I feel they can be worn down. The three players listed can do this.
- Torts plays the hell out of his best players. Always has, look at Tampa. At some point Nash is going to have a multi goal game. I think he scores tonight (based purely on shooting percentages).
-Earlier in the year this line was -170. Now I think it should be more expensive than it is, but considerably less than -170. Either way, there is value here imo, though the exact amount is debatable.
-Caps are ahead on aggregate goals in the series by 2. TSN analyst Scott Cullen provides a great resource before each round guessing at the total number of aggregate goals for / against. He's usually in the ballpark more than he's not (I tried to link reference but it won't let me) and I wouldn't be surprised if today was the day some of those averages even out (Nash, aggregate goals ect.)
Downfall to this bet, is it's a bet. Best laid plans can go to shit real fast, especially with Tortorella coaching. I feel he's more of an emotional liability than anything, particularly behind closed doors. Also, Ovechkin is "due" by Ovechkin standards this year. Still, you're getting a NYR team that only lost 6 times in regulation at home in the shortened season against a .500 team on the road and the juice isn't overly bad to do so.
Haven't looked up refs yet, and doubt I will bother. On a side note I was told that Kelly Sutherland, guy who reffed the Canucks game last night grew up in Richmond BC. In 19 of the last 20 Canucks games Sutherland has reffed, he has called more total penalty minutes on the Canucks than the other team. Assuming that total minor PIMS in a game is a 50/50 prop, 19+/20 is running you at around 55,000 to 1. Mix in a make up call someone there eh Kelly.
