Dylanphan playoffs

dylanphan

dylanphan

Pretty much a regular
Good thing all my invaluable posts in this forum have been purged :rolleyes: I take quite a bit of time, albeit work time, to give you the qualify information for which I am severely undercompensated.
That said, its the playoffs and I've decided to grace you all with my playoff picks.
I'm going to start with a $1,000 bankroll for this thread only and post all picks, prices and profits. I anticipate at least doubling my money over the next few months, more than likely 2.5x+ profit. Be back in a bit.
 
Bruins/Leafs

I was a bit disappointed at this one as I was really looking forward to a Leafs/Panthers first round matchup, but this one will suffice. Two very good teams, in what should be a long series. Both rank in the top 3 in hits per game, so I expect a lot of physicality. And while the refs usually swallow the whistle in the playoffs, especially deeper in the series, I think a penalty call here and there will be the difference. I have this basically a 50/50 matchup, but I’m going to play the Leafs here for a few reasons. First, Bruins lost a ton in the offseason and you just don’t replace a Bergeron who is a difference maker on defense, offense and the face off circle. Leafs have not won the cup in my lifetime and have a better pp1, so a dodgy call can make all the difference. Boston will certainly be salty after losing in the first round last year, but again, this is a coin flip series and I’m taking +odds here

Maple Leafs +105 ($75 to make $78.75)
 
Panthers/Lightning

TB has lost so many players over the past 3-4 years it’s ridiculous and yet, they still make the playoffs. That's remarkable, but at this point, this is a one line team. It’s a great line with Kuch and Point and I guess Duclair now, but you shut them down and I don’t think any of the other lines can make enough hay at even strength to be a bother. The defense took a hit earlier this year with Sergachev out, but is serviceable, and certainly Vassy is one of the premier goalies in the world. So, you’re going to see Kuch and Point and Hedman 25mpg. But this Panther team grinds, grinds, grinds and lead the league in hits. They roll out all four lines and all four lines bang. Their defense is unheralded, I mean Forslov leads the league in +/- and they could be getting back some huge contributors like Ekblad and OEL. And it’s not like Bobrosky is a chump in the net. This, to me, is the biggest mismatch of the first round in the East. I honestly think the Panthers could sweep this one.

Panthers -1.5 games (+120) $100 to make $120
 
Isles/Carolina

I think this series is going to be a bit tighter than anticipated. I have Carolina ranked #1 in my personal power rankings, as I think they are the best 5v5 team, have the deepest defense and are very good on lines 1-4 getting good scoring and defense on each line, but….there are two things that give me pause that Carolina is just going to steam roll through this series. First is gk. That is always an x-factor in the playoffs and I just don’t trust whomever the Canes throw out there. Sure, they will probably face fewer high chance opportunities, but I’d rather go with either of the Isles goalies, both are good. The other thing is the Canes don’t really have that killer 1st line, where they can take advantage of home ice line changes and create massive mismatches. Sure the Aho line is very good, but not great. And the Isles don’t really have a killer first line either, but like the Canes they roll out 4 good lines and are solid defensively (Although their defense can’t hold a candle the Carolina). I think Carolina wins, maybe in 6 here, but I don’t like any of the lines out there well enough to play a series bet. Maybe hope Carolina loses game one and then come back with them to win the series? Any bets I make on this one will just be game to game unders – I see a lot of 2-1, 3-2 type games here.
 
Rangers/Caps

On paper, looks pretty clear cut that the Rangers are the better team. Better offense. Better defense. Much better goaltending. Caps do have some size to them, in particular on defense and their wingers. Key players for Caps, imho are Oshie and Wilson. Oshie can do a lot for this team on both ends and is a dynamic player. Wilson can cause trouble in front of the net or with his hits, but he needs to stay disciplined. Rangers aren’t going to forget the cheap shot he put on Panarin a few years ago. Rangers do have some size as well, and they can dress Rempe if need be. But, I think the Rangers will just play it pretty straight forward because if the Caps take penalties, this will be a short series. Rangers I think are top 3 in both pp and pk, and I don’t think the Caps have the tools needed to take advantage of the Rangers deficiencies or mistakes. Rangers lost in the first round last year and it cost their coach his job. Much higher expectations this year, and this is a must win series for them and I do think they win comfortably. But, the vig is way to high for me to play anything other than single games or in-game in this series.

Small play Rangers series win 4-1 +300 ($25 to make $75)

Will be back with the Western conference tomorrow as there are still a few series to be parsed out.

:cheers3:
 
Canucks/Preds

I saw this line pop last night as Vancouver -150 and thought this was a bit light as I had Vancouver at closer to -200. But I slept on it, and saw the same price this morning and I’m going to go ahead and pull the trigger. Vancouver been pretty great all year long and they are a good, young, 4 line team. Seems to me the whole team is being undervalued. If I wanted to nitpick, maybe I’m not so fond of their 5-6 dmen, but honestly, all of the forwards are great 2-ways, in particular Rangers legend JT Miller. Demko may not be a top 3-4 goalie in the league, but I’d say he’s in the next 4-5 right behind them. Canucks have a pretty good record at home, and if it goes to 7, I’d still line Vancouver at lower than the series odds are here. I know the Preds been one of the best teams over the second half of the season, but they are older, and not nearly as deep. Yeah, Josi still good, their first line is real good, but in a series, you can’t really on your top line only. Josi/McDonagh may see close to 30mpg, they will wear down. I’ll take the team that can roll out all of their lines – especially when a lot of travel comes into play.

Vancouver $150 to make $100 here strong play
 
Avs/Jets

Jets coming into this series on fire, winners of 8 straight and grabbed home ice advantage in the first round. But, I really don’t think it will matter. Avs I have ranked 2nd in my power rankings, they are getting healthier and I don’t see any clear cut advantage the Jets may have, other than if Hellebuyck stands on his head all series long (very very possible). Jets are deep, sure, but they only have 4 players with more than 40 points this year, and only 3 forwards. They are not the biggest team either with Ehlers and Connor both soft and injury prone. Jets top 4 dmen solid, bottom 2 can be exploited. Avs just a superior team top to bottom, and getting healthier as Rantannen missed a few games. They made a trade for Mittlestadt and at this point can really be dangers on all of their lines and their PP is great, with the second most PP goals this year whereas Jets languishing near the bottom with the man advantage. I see a clear Avs win, but maybe 6-7 games, so no play on the handicap.

Avs -135 ($100.00 to win $74.10)
 
dylanphan said:
Good thing all my invaluable posts in this forum have been purged :rolleyes: I take quite a bit of time, albeit work time, to give you the qualify information for which I am severely undercompensated.
That said, its the playoffs and I've decided to grace you all with my playoff picks.
I'm going to start with a $1,000 bankroll for this thread only and post all picks, prices and profits. I anticipate at least doubling my money over the next few months, more than likely 2.5x+ profit. Be back in a bit.
Click to expand...
Not quite sure what you mean by purged.

The only thing we cleaned up was some in-games and pre 2020 attachments before the move to a new host.

Otherwise, we haven't done any cleaning in a few years.
 
I will have no plays on the other two series, but will give quick leans

Stars/VGK just too close to call, imho. I watch more Stars games and they are really really good. But Vegas was doing just fine with a lot of guys absent with injuries and it seems they conveniently come off LTIR just in time for the playoffs. A full Vegas team should be in the top 3-4 teams to win the cup. They play all kinds of salary cap acrobatics, and this may be their last chance for another cup as they will lose some players to attrition and salary demands. But don’t sleep on the Stars. Sure, their old guard are older, but Seguin and Benn can still play a little. And Robertson didn’t have a stellar year, but he’s still very good. And this Stars team had 10 guys with over 40 points, they get contributions up and down the line up. Grabbed Tanev to sure up the defense as well, this one is just a toss up to me. Very slight lean to the Stars, but nowhere close enough to bet them.

Oilers/Kings you would think that the Oilers jump off the page to you, but the Kings fall to me in a similar vein as the Canucks as just very underrated. Kings have very good two way forwards up and down the lineup, their defenseman are good enough and if they get a hot hand in Talbot or Rittich, they can steal a few games and win the series for sure. Oilers made coaching change earlier and that really turned their season around as they tapped on the Rangers for a coach. Everyone knows about the Oilers star firepower, but if the Kings can stay disciplined and stay out of the box (which I firmly think they can) they can keep the Oilers in check. And I mean, people are saying Skinner is good enough, but I’ll make him prove me wrong first as I think he’s one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. I’d be willing to bet the Kings to win the series, but I’d need closer to +175/+180 than the current +155 being offered.

Current bankroll after series wagers is $550.00

:cheers3:
 
dylanphan said:
I will have no plays on the other two series, but will give quick leans

Stars/VGK just too close to call, imho. I watch more Stars games and they are really really good. But Vegas was doing just fine with a lot of guys absent with injuries and it seems they conveniently come off LTIR just in time for the playoffs. A full Vegas team should be in the top 3-4 teams to win the cup. They play all kinds of salary cap acrobatics, and this may be their last chance for another cup as they will lose some players to attrition and salary demands. But don’t sleep on the Stars. Sure, their old guard are older, but Seguin and Benn can still play a little. And Robertson didn’t have a stellar year, but he’s still very good. And this Stars team had 10 guys with over 40 points, they get contributions up and down the line up. Grabbed Tanev to sure up the defense as well, this one is just a toss up to me. Very slight lean to the Stars, but nowhere close enough to bet them.

Oilers/Kings you would think that the Oilers jump off the page to you, but the Kings fall to me in a similar vein as the Canucks as just very underrated. Kings have very good two way forwards up and down the lineup, their defenseman are good enough and if they get a hot hand in Talbot or Rittich, they can steal a few games and win the series for sure. Oilers made coaching change earlier and that really turned their season around as they tapped on the Rangers for a coach. Everyone knows about the Oilers star firepower, but if the Kings can stay disciplined and stay out of the box (which I firmly think they can) they can keep the Oilers in check. And I mean, people are saying Skinner is good enough, but I’ll make him prove me wrong first as I think he’s one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. I’d be willing to bet the Kings to win the series, but I’d need closer to +175/+180 than the current +155 being offered.

Current bankroll after series wagers is $550.00

:cheers3:
Click to expand...
I don’t watch much hockey until playoff time. Thanks a million for these writeups. I enjoy playing Series prices. GL!
 
Some odds and ends.
Drouin out for the first round for the Avs.
Stone has made a remarkable comeback and is a full contact participant for VGK :rolleyes: Pieterangelo had an appendectomy but seems like he'll be okay.
Sergachev was practicing for the Lightning. That is something to monitor as that would be a big get for them. But, he hasn't played in months and is coming off a knee injury, not really sure how effective he'll be.
Nylander is a question mark for tonight vs Bruins. Can't find any definitive information about this one, but that would be a pretty big blow.
And the news that has kind of flown under the radar is Filip Chytil returned to practice, full contact, about a week ago for the Rangers. Now, I'm not saying he is going to return as concussions are very tricky, and his first return ended with him on the ice for no apparent reason. But, if he comes back and is 75-80% of what he was, I can't understate what a massive boost that would be for the Rangers. I'd rate it 50/50 you see him back, and wouldn't count on him for at least a week or two. Matchup vs the Caps is not ideal for his return, but at this time of year, no matchup is ideal.

Going to make 3 plays on the early game

Aho (Car) o2.5 sog $28.00 to make $14.00
Burns (Car) o2.5 sog $10 to make $12
Aho (Car) AGS +160 $10 to make $16

I fully expect the Canes to pepper the net and control the game here, so Varlamov over saves was in consideration, but I feel Aho going to be buzzing around the ice. Big game, usually big players shine. I also think the Burns line is just too low. Granted power plays tend to give more shots and you would expect fewer penalties called, but it's game 1, I don't think they are going to let everything go. Canes get 3 power play chances that would bode well for these shot props.
 
Well, that Carolina game was a shitfest. Turned it off after the first period. Toronto is just owned by the Bruins ffs.
Bad day 1 in the playoffs. If that wasn't a big enough kick in the balls, I was up a few hundred in 4 mlb DFS slates with Tatis still going. Woke up this morning and won 11 bucks after Tatis goes 0ferfucking5. MFER gets 1 lousy walk or hit and I win quite a bit of money.
Current bankroll $502.00
All day hockey fest today :eek: Gonna lose some money watching soccer this a.m. and win it all back today.
 
Adding:
Toffoli/Connor/MacKinnon/Rantannen 15+ SOG +130 $10 to make $13
I think if Toffoli can get 2 this one hits easy.
 
One for the late game for now, o1.5 (1P) -110 22 to make 20.
Yeah, betting overs in playoffs is difficult at best, but both of these teams were 49-33 overs in the regular season (2nd most in the NHL, only Colorado was better). I think (hope) both teams come out flying and we get a few chances. Refs have been making calls (Rangers/caps game had 4 first period pps ffs, two very weak calls as well).
anywhoooo. Goals are fun,
 
Current bankroll $436.10

I'd like to thank Aho and Burns for both going o2.5 sog LAST night, and of course every 1p went o1.5. Got caught up at work and couldn't post any of my plays. Was a mixed bag, but I did hit a nice ags parlay. Obviously not including any of that in this thread, but even though I'm sucking ass at the single game bets posted, I'm feeling more confident about it.
Will post plays later on. Hopefully (good tail material).
 
Laffy atg +210 $5 to make $10.5
JT Miller/MacKinnon atg parlay +400 $10 to make $40

Will have game plays later on, but these are fun bets for me.
 
Rangers o3.5 (-110) 11 to make 10
Vancouver/Preds o5.5 (-125) 25 to make 20

Looking for something on the Avs game, hard pass on the Bolts/Panthers
 
Panthers finished off the Lightning last night as expected. Rangers swept, so I lost that bet, but so be it. They were behind for less than 4 minutes the entire series. I'll give full marks to the Caps for even making the playoffs. Total team in transition, bunch of old guys, bunch of young guys, and they only had about 1.5 NHL caliber defenseman for the series due to injuries.

Current bankroll $651.10 with a few bets still pending.

Went too many props early on which ate into the bankroll. I think my reads were still right, but props can be tougher in playoffs. Hopefully the Isles and Leafs can extended their series tonight, gonna be a long week until the best team in the NHL plays again.
 
Current bankroll $825.20
first round basically treading water here.

Played Rangers +125 $100 to make $125 on principal alone.

Look, I get that the Canes are a better 5v5 team. HOWEVER, let me break this down a bit for the people in the back.
Forwards, I think this is a wash, no advantage. The Rangers Laffy/Trochek/Panarin line should be the best line in the series, but Canes can compete with all four lines, as can the Rangers. Both teams get scoring up and down the lineup, so you don't really need to do much as far as line matchups. Canes make it tough for you to get space in all three aspects of the rink. They swarm on the forecheck and are outstanding. Their D pinches in and makes it difficult for you to get out of your own zone with speed. But, the Rangers are no slouches themselves on the forecheck. They are also very adept in the counter and breaking out as they have quite a few very fast forwards. And this years version of the Rangers love to take the body.
Defense is again a wash. Fox is probably the best defenseman in the series, but the Canes 1-6 is better. Again though, the Rangers have no glaring discrepancies on their part, hell they have Trouba and Gustaffson as their 5-6 which is very solid, much better than they have had really ever. In the past they've had to throw their top pair out for 25+mpg and they wore down bad. Fox may play 22-23 mpg, but at least 3-4 of that is PP time and all of the other guys will play between 16-20 minutes as needed. Canes about the same.
Goalie, come on, Igor and Quick are way way better than Andreson and Kochetkov. Yeah, a hot hand can make a lot of difference, but #31 on the Rangers has been on fire the past few months. I like our chances.
Special teams, again a wash. Canes #2 regular season PP, Rangers #3. Canes #1 pk regular season, Rangers #3. If you want to give a slight edge to the Canes here, okay, their pk was great, but the Rangers PP I think is better to be honest as well.

Health, Rangers come in pretty much fully healthy. Chytil hasn't played in months, so I'm not counting on his availability at all. Canes are without Fast for the playoffs, he is a good forechecker and penalty killer and Pesce's status is uncertain - he would be a bigger miss.

Intangibles - I'm giving the edge to the Rangers here. they have home ice. They have sured up their deficiencies with better face off guys to win key drops (Trocheck has been phenomenal all year and Goodrow is good - they often put them both on the ice for key spots). And I've gone this far and have yet to mention REMPE REMPE REMPE - Rangers have yet to lose with him in the lineup.

Series very well may come down to injuries, but you can't predict these. Deflected shot, knee twist wrong, etc.. so I will just hope that no one gets injured on either side.
Give me the plus odds here every damn day.
#LGR #TITY
 
Current bankroll $681.20
Only lost the Leafs series bet in the first round, wish someone would have told me Nylander had a mystery injury and Matthews was going to get dysentery. all of my reads were correct, except I guess I underestimated the Oilers

Panthers -1.5 games +125 $100 to win $125
I feel stronger about this one than I did laying the game and a half against he Bolts and am getting a slightly better price. Bruins are just not that great. Only reason they beat the Leafs, other than injuries, is they didn't have to play from behind much if at all in the series. It was either tied or a one goal game. Panthers are going to generate a ton more offense and Bruins are not going to be able to keep pace. Hot goalie in Swayman or Ullmark, may steal them a game, but I'm just not seeing how they will keep up. Thinking Panthers win this in 5 or 6 at worst.
 
Current bankroll $531.20

Colorado +105 vs Stars $50.00 to make $52.50
Honestly was surprised to get a plus money number on this one. Avs thumped a very good Jets team, 4-1. Further they scored at least 5 goals every game! That's going to be a problem for the Stars, because while they do have pretty good player depth, they're top end talent is simply not near as good as Colorado. Colorado comes in rested against a team that went 7 games, and they are in my top 3 power rankings, so I had made them a -130 favorite in this series. This price is just too good to pass up on. I like the Stars, but Avs are better.

Canucks +1.5 (+110) $50.00 to make $55.00
Just another very disrespectful line to one of the top teams in the west. Canucks have a deeper team offensively and defensively. They have home ice advantage. They have a goalie issue, sure, but I've never trusted Skinner on Edmonton either. Canucks are much better than the Kings, and Edmonton's an even larger favorite in this one? Makes no sense. I took the game line at plus money instead of +220 for the series, because yeah, i'm a bit gunshy about backing a team that I'm not sure if I'm getting the #2, #3 or #4 goalie. I'm trying to think of what the line would be with a healthy Demko, evs?
we'll see.
 
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