Playoffs 2016

[hugh613]

MTD: 0-0, +/-0.00

Sunday:

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NBA, Basketball
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers , Sun 17/16 12:05 PM
Detroit Pistons Over 47 for 1st Half -109

*Well, not much point in sugarcoating how wretched the regular season was (first losing season in the NBA in about 8 years), but what's done is done. As far as this one goes, the Pistons covered the 1H total in all four regular season matchups with the Cavaliers this season (58, 56, 58, 55), with noticeable drop offs in the 2H of each game (56.7 1H, 47.7 2H), so if they want any chance of staying competitive this afternoon, odds are they'll have to get it done in the 1H. As far as pregame jitters facing Cleveland on the road in their first playoff appearance since 08-09, blah, blah, blah... Like Curt Schilling once said, 'Mystique' and 'Aura' are "dancers in a night club". This team knows they can hang with the Cavaliers, and shouldn't be intimidated playing in an arena where they've won 3 out of 4 matchups during Phase 2 of the LBJ era. Reggie Jackson looks good to go, and the Cavs really have no answer for Andre Drummond and Ersan Ilyasova on the inside, so points should be easy enough to come by for the Pistons to start this one.

 

[hugh613]

NBA Summer League: 9-6, +2.40
NBA Exhibition: 32-19-1, +15.85
NBA Regular Season: 230-234-7, -50.37

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL throughout the playoffs, hugh :cheers3:

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Breaking out Disturbed for the playoffs.

I can't wish you much luck, I went game under, but the good news for you is I'm a terrible basketball bettor when I'm out there on my own alone with my thoughts.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Grind and tip - I can go with Adele tomorrow if that's more your speed... : )

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Just keep us guessing, hugh. Could be Violent Femmes, could be Dean Martin. Never know. I don't like when you get in those cheesy '80's ruts, personal preference.

 

[emkee]

GL Hugh.

 

[Metallica]

GL today Hugh
:shake:

 

[KJ]

:beer4:

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 1-0, +1.00

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat , Sun 17/16 02:35 PM
Charlotte Hornets Under 99 for Game -140

*Think that's the first time since the exhibition season that I've managed to show a '+' sign in the NBA (oughta just hang it up now)... Anyhoo, Charlotte's only topped 100+ in 4 of their last 25 against the Heat (ok, different players, but still), so not sure why today should be any different. In the four matchups this season, they hit 94, 99, 95, and 109, while shooting a relatively pedestrian 44.9%. Plus, we're only two post seasons removed from the Heat suffocating the Hornets offense during an opening round sweep, so fully expecting that slow, methodical playoff pace to show itself in this one. Obvious concern would be the way the Charlotte offense was humming along to close out the regular season but, y'know, most of those games were either against subpar defenses and/or faster paced teams - the Heat is neither of those two, especially at home. Might be a little tight towards the end, but think the under should prevail in the end.

Thanks emkee, Metallica and kj.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs , Sun 17/16 05:05 PM
Total Under 188.5 for Game -113

*Hard for me to back the Spurs in this spot given how they finished the regular season (meaningless games, lack of intensity, yada, yada, yada...) but seems to me if you're going to flip the switch back on, it's probably a little easier to do so on the defensive end. Thankfully, the Spurs held visitors this season to AT&T to league lows in points per game (91.2) and offensive efficiency (97.3) As for Memphis, blah... This team cost me time and time again this year, but being the battle tested squad they are, think they should be more than comfortable wanting to try and grind this one out (3-8 O/U last season in the playoffs against Portland and Golden State).

 

[hugh613]

Just keep us guessing, hugh. Could be Violent Femmes, could be Dean Martin. Never know. I don't like when you get in those cheesy '80's ruts, personal preference.

It took me a little while to read between the lines but, clearly, this was tip's way of asking me to... let the BEAT DROP.

Adding:

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NBA, Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs , Sun 17/16 05:05 PM
Total Under 178.5 for Game -109

*Running the risk of getting screwed on both bets if this doesn't pan out, but there's isn't a whole lot of pace to this game as it stands at the moment. Shooting and free throws might tick up a notch in the 2H, but odds are they get offset by a few more turnovers, so might as well (and as Pinnacle doesn't offer a 2H line for some strange reason, only a live one, that would be under 93.5 2H for those keeping score at home).

 

[KJ]

On 2h under, Sunday night special hopefully

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 3-1, +1.91

Monday:

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NBA, Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder Mon 18/16 05:05 PM
Spread (or run line) -12.5 for Game -116

NBA, Basketball
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder , Mon 18/16 05:05 PM
Oklahoma City Thunder Over 107 for Game -111

*The knee jerk reaction would be to say "No way the Mavs play that poorly again" and, to a certain extent, that's probably true (hell, a CTG team comprised of me, tip, kj, duds and emkee could probably manage 29.8%). Having said that, think game one pretty much affirmed what most of us already knew: that this Mavericks team just isn't that good. They managed to fluke their way into the playoffs by adopting an ultra defensive style to finish the regular season (and the good fortune of having mediocre teams on the schedule down the stretch as well), and Saturday's game served as a pretty big wake up call as far as what happens when you try to skate by against the elite teams in the league - ie. you get crushed. Mind you, OKC's ATS numbers against the Mavs the past two seasons aren't the greatest (6-4), but just think the effects of that kind of a beat down tend to linger for a game or two.

As for the team total, seriously doubt scoring should prove to be much of a problem for OKC: in terms of the 107 number, the Thunder are 11-2-3 the last sixteen overall versus the Mavericks and 6-2-1 the last nine at Chesapeake. And through five games this season, the Thunder have shot 48.3% against the Mavs and managed to hit 107+ in all five meetings so, yeah, scoring shouldn't be an issue.

Figure I'm going either 0-2 or 2-0 tonight, so let's go for the latter...

 

[KJ]

We'd be over 35% mate, that I'm sure

 

[hugh613]

We'd be over 35% mate, that I'm sure

dudley seems to have that inner rage, so I could see him taking it strong to the hoop and at least getting to the line...

 

[KJ]

I've seen it, he shoots FTs like Chris Dudley but will get 40 attempts

As long as he can set a screen we're golden

 

[Metallica]

GL today Hugh
:shake:

 

[ProV1Colt]

GL Hugh

 

[hugh613]

Thanks kj, Metallica and ProV. Looks like pretty much everyone here is on the Thunder tonight, so hopefully we can all cash together (that or have an extended therapy/venting session in the discussion thread about where it all went wrong, LOL).

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

YTD: 3-1, +1.91

Monday:

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NBA, Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder Mon 18/16 05:05 PM
Spread (or run line) -12.5 for Game -116

NBA, Basketball
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder , Mon 18/16 05:05 PM
Oklahoma City Thunder Over 107 for Game -111

*The knee jerk reaction would be to say "No way the Mavs play that poorly again" and, to a certain extent, that's probably true (hell, a CTG team comprised of me, tip, kj, duds and emkee could probably manage 29.8%). Having said that, think game one pretty much affirmed what most of us already knew: that this Mavericks team just isn't that good. They managed to fluke their way into the playoffs by adopting an ultra defensive style to finish the regular season (and the good fortune of having mediocre teams on the schedule down the stretch as well), and Saturday's game served as a pretty big wake up call as far as what happens when you try to skate by against the elite teams in the league - ie. you get crushed. Mind you, OKC's ATS numbers against the Mavs the past two seasons aren't the greatest (6-4), but just think the effects of that kind of a beat down tend to linger for a game or two.

As for the team total, seriously doubt scoring should prove to be much of a problem for OKC: in terms of the 107 number, the Thunder are 11-2-3 the last sixteen overall versus the Mavericks and 6-2-1 the last nine at Chesapeake. And through five games this season, the Thunder have shot 48.3% against the Mavs and managed to hit 107+ in all five meetings so, yeah, scoring shouldn't be an issue.

Figure I'm going either 0-2 or 2-0 tonight, so let's go for the latter...

Ya you, kj tip duds and emkee are not gonna manage 29.8% unless I am the sixth man. Rest of the analysis seems good. Best of luck Hugh

 

[hugh613]

Ya you, kj tip duds and emkee are not gonna manage 29.8% unless I am the sixth man. Rest of the analysis seems good. Best of luck Hugh

Thanks Kyle. I think we could probably make a go of it against the UCONN women once we break out the elbows down low and start sending them to the ground like the Bad Boy Pistons...

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks Kyle. I think we could probably make a go of it against the UCONN women once we break out the elbows down low and start sending them to the ground like the Bad Boy Pistons...

Ahhhh yeah.

 

[KJ]

Must know how to discreetly use the elbows. It's how us guards thrive in the paint.

 

[wnbafan33]

Warriors are going to win it all

 

[dudleysdad]

Must know how to discreetly use the elbows. It's how us guards thrive in the paint.

"Us guards"
lol

 

[KJ]

gotta out smart the opposition duds, you worry about the charity stripe

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 3-3, -0.36

Tuesday:

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NBA, Basketball
San Antonio Spurs Tue 19/16 06:35 PM
Spread (or run line) -10.5 for 1st Half -118

NBA, Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs , Tue 19/16 06:35 PM
San Antonio Spurs Over 52 for 1st Half -111

*Nice of Kevin Durant to single handedly gift the Mavericks a win last night... Anyways, seems unlikely that both the Thunder and Spurs would stumble out of the gates on back to back nights, and even more unlikely that Vince Carter manages to channel his younger self for a 2nd game in a row. No point in rehashing the Spurs home numbers again, but it is interesting to note that San Antonio's 1H stats against Memphis this season land right on tonight's 1H numbers (5 GP, 52.6 PF, 41.6 PA, +11.0)

Let's just hope no one on the Spurs decides to play hero and shoot 7-33 from the floor...

 

[KJ]

Like that 1h over and gonna play it too, get sum

 

[hugh613]

Thanks kj. Feels weird having to incorporate a head coach into your handicapping, but knowing Popovich, he'll probably want to go all out early and try to sit the starters, leaving the back door open for the full game. In other news, I see Phoenix is looking to build a new arena downtown for the Suns, Coyotes and maybe Sun Devils. Have to feel a little bad for Glendale...

:shake:

 

[KJ]

Fuck Glendale rancid waste

Yotes, Dbacks and Suns will be downtown where they should be, Cards can live in Glendale with so few games and be fine

No one wants to go that far west if they can avoid it, AZ braintrust at its best

 

[hugh613]

Yeah, they're looking to build a new downtown arena here as well within the next five years. Just so stupid to build an arena/stadium in the suburbs and effectively cut off half your population base. 8 games a season is one thing, 41+ games plus concerts is another (although the half hour drive to the arena did get me out of having to go see Disney On Ice for the hundredth time this past winter, so it's not all bad... : )

 

[KJ]

Seriously from parts of the east valley here with rush hour it would take an hour and a half and there's a lot of money East. Stupid.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 4-4, -0.47

Wednesday:

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NBA, Basketball
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers , Wed 20/16 05:05 PM
Total Over 200.5 for Game -120

*Going to add the live Heat under at the end of the 1st quarter as well...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat , Wed 20/16 04:05 PM
Total Under 205.5 for Game +100

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 4-6, -2.67

Thursday:

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NBA, Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks , Thu 21/16 04:05 PM
Total Over 196 for Game -120

NBA, Basketball
Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers , Thu 21/16 04:35 PM
Total Over 193 for Game -130

NBA, Basketball
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets , Thu 21/16 06:35 PM
Total Over 215 for Game -130

*Overs have to start hitting at some point, right?

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight Hugh
:shake:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 5-8, -4.27

Friday:

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NBA, Basketball
Boston Celtics Fri 22/16 05:05 PM
Spread (or run line) -2.5 for Game -113

NBA, Basketball
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies , Fri 22/16 06:35 PM
Total Under 183.5 for Game -107

Thanks Metallica.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 7-8, -2.27

Saturday:

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NBA, Basketball
Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers , Sat 23/16 12:05 PM
Total Under 194 for Game -120

NBA, Basketball
Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets , Sat 23/16 02:35 PM
Charlotte Hornets Under 100.5 for Game -106

*Not much pace in the Raptors/Pacers series to date, and don't think either team should expect much in the way of help from the refs as both Dan Crawford and Ron Garretson were near the bottom of the league in terms of fouls called per game this season; in other words, they'll have to get it done from the floor and, based on what I've watched so far this series, I'm hard pressed to think that's going to happen. And as I alluded to in post #7, Charlotte's only managed to top 100+ in 5 of its last 27 against the Heat, so not sure why this afternoon should be any different, especially since I would suspect/hope the Hornets place a greater emphasis on defense coming home down 2 games to none.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks , Sat 23/16 05:05 PM
Dallas Mavericks Under 97.5 for Game -109

*Great defensive effort down the stretch by the Heat, SMH... Anyways, Dirk talking about how it'll be difficult for the Mavs to stay with the Thunder if it's another fast paced game like Thursday, so let's hope Rick Carlisle agrees...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 9-9, -1.36

Sunday:

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NBA, Basketball
Memphis Grizzlies Sun 24/16 10:05 AM
Spread (or run line) +8 for 1st Half -117

NBA, Basketball
San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies , Sun 24/16 10:05 AM
Memphis Grizzlies Over 39.5 for 1st Half -105

*Undoubtedly a case of me trying to outsmart myself here, but the Grizzlies showed signs of life with the smaller unit in game three, so you would think/hope the same type of effort applies this afternoon - times two. As for the Spurs, well, who knows... It's been like the tortoise and the hare for the most part this series (SA +8.7 1H, SA +13.7 2H), so expecting max effort out of the Spurs on the road isn't really a given (although, in all fairness, the hare eventually kicked it into high gear in all three games...)

Expecting the first unit to play major minutes in the 1H to try and salvage some pride at home (hopefully Dave Joerger has the good sense to leave Chris Andersen at the end of the bench where he belongs), and hopefully both James Capers and John Goble keep breaking out the whistles like they have been all season (each with two playoff games so far, each with 50+ fouls called in their games).

 

[Metallica]

GL today Hugh
:shake:

 

[eggman]

Nice work.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 11-9, +0.64

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Golden State Warriors Sun 24/16 12:35 PM
Spread (or run line) -8.5 for Game -122

Thanks Metallica and egg.

 

[KJ]

GL Canada

 

[Metallica]

YTD: 11-9, +0.64

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Golden State Warriors Sun 24/16 12:35 PM
Spread (or run line) -8.5 for Game -122

Thanks Metallica and egg.

Go Dubs! :shake:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 12-9, +1.64

Adding:

NBA, Basketball
Cleveland Cavaliers Sun 24/16 05:35 PM
Spread (or run line) -5.5 for Game -119

*Must win, backs against the wall, revenge factor, 3-1 on Sundays... blah, blah, blah. Sometimes the other team is just better than you are, and that's all there is to it. Plus, with their inability to put together a full game in this series to this point (-10.6 FT, +0.6 1H, -11.3 2H), think it's become exceedingly obvious the Pistons aren't up to the task.

Thanks kj and Metallica.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 12-10, +0.45

Monday:

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NBA, Basketball
Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets , Mon 25/16 04:05 PM
Charlotte Hornets Under 98.5 for Game -111

NBA, Basketball
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder , Mon 25/16 05:05 PM
Dallas Mavericks Under 96.5 for Game -136

NBA, Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder Mon 25/16 05:05 PM
Spread (or run line) -14.5 for Game -108

*Last night's Cavaliers wager pretty much encapsulated everything wrong with my betting approach this season. If you recall in post number one of this thread, I mentioned how the Pistons had covered the 1H team total in all four matchups with Cleveland during the regular season. I bet (and won) with it the first game of the series. So then what do I do? I bet the full game total in game two, don't bet at all on game three, and then take the Cavs ATS last night. And, all the while, the Pistons covered the 1H team total in all four games of the series. Stupid is as stupid does, and stupid sure has put in some serious overtime this season...

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Incubus is an interesting choice today.

 

[hugh613]

Incubus is an interesting choice today.

Were you hoping I'd let the BEAT DROP?