***Playoff Lex***

Lexington 125

Lexington 125

I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Looking forward to potentially having my heart ripped out as a Bills fan once again!

Ravens tt o26.5-121

Bills tt o28.5+100

4 units each


Ravens-3/ Bills-3.5 (-112)

3 units


Ravens ML/Bills tt o24.5/Rams tt o20.5 (+188)

Nico Collins anytime td+135

James Cook anytime td-135

Allen anytime td-135

2 units each




Nico 1st td+700

Lamar 1st td +1100

Allen 1st td+550

half unit each



Allen 1st td/ rush yds o49.5 (+1050)

Allen 2tds/Hurts 2tds/Jefferson td/Puka rec yds o88.5 (+9161)

Anytime td parlay Allen/Henry/Hurts/Evans/Puka/Jefferson (+4461 boosted)

.25 units
 
Last edited:
Still looking into the other matchups but have some plays in early as I don't see the lines getting any better for me.

Early Bills thoughts

The Bills took off week 18, once again the #2 seed. I've had a pretty solid handle on the Bills all season and they are coming in light years better as a team than they have in past seasons. For one they are coming in healthy- last season they lost 3 starters going into the playoffs and a couple in the blowout win vs Pitt. Year before they straight ran out of gas & got curb stomped.

This is the best offensive line Allen has ever had. Even if someone gets beat Allen can shake them. Tons of distribution and Allen is playing lights out. Defensively the Broncos have an absolute stud in Surtain but Allen has enough options to just throw away from him. In years past I could see Pat being a problem as he would have given Diggs fits- this year Allen has options, a great run game, & a very good OC who I think doesn't get enough credit. Allen doesn't have to force feed 1 player and the offense is better for it.

I think many people have an inaccurate depiction of what this team can do defensively. The Bills haven't shown anything defensively the last 3 games. Previous to that they have actually been playing a little man mixed in and blitzing 1 db leaving single high safeties... point being they will have wrinkles and plays ready to try and confuse NIx. Towards the end of the season Milano was working his way back into game shape- once they saw he was back fully (jets game) they took him out. Now they will have a fresh healthy Milano to go with Bernard & Andreessen who has worked his way into being the #3 lb. Rasul was banged up as was Rapp. Now the secondary is healthy lead by Benford who is about as underrated a cb as there is in this league. Hamlin would get absolutely roasted if he got caught 1 v 1 with Sutton or Mims- thankfully I don't think the Bills will put him on an island. So more of the keeping everything in front of them and getting enough stops to get the W.

I was at the last regular season home loss to Denver & these are two totally different teams- not even comparable really on either side. Nix has shown promise and I think he'll be a solid qb, but I don't even think they keep it close vs the Bills at home.


Bills 8-0 at home
Allen is a stud look at his playoff numbers & the offense is better now.
Denver road games vs good teams= fraudulent


Denver vs top tier qbs this season

Burrow- 412 3tds/1 rushing 30 points allowed with a banged up run game.

Herbert- 284 2tds 1 int 34 pts allowed

Lamar 16-19 280 3 tds


Allen might put up video game numbers guys. Another thing to note is in those 3 games denver allowed 23, 21 & 17 points in the second half. The Bills have been pretty solid all season with 2ndh adjustments.

Strong lean to the over but I honestly think Denver may struggle to get over 17 points here so Bills tt it is.

Allen rushing td prop at -135 is an auto bet. He's rushed for a td in 6 of the last 7 games played. Rushed for a td in 3 of last 4 playoff games (2 vs KC).

Cook td prop- I was shocked to see it lined so low. He has just as many rushing tds as Henry who is lined over -220. OK
 
bulldogs said:
Looking at a Balt 20-13 game

pitt +10 and und 44
Click to expand...
I'm opposite both.

I have yet to see an argument for the Steelers that holds water.

Some I've heard

Lamar is a choker in the playoffs- ran into a KC D last year that nobody was going to beat. Previous to that he dominated the Texans 100 yds 2tds on the ground. 2021 17-3 loss to Bills who were playing lights out at the time. 2020 lost to Titans- Henry ran for nearly 200 (lamar had 500+ ap yards btw). All these old Balty teams were much more flawed than the current Ravens team. Lamar playing better than he ever has to date at home.

Steelers D/Tomlin will be able to keep it close- Steelers playoff road games- lost @Buf by 14 last year. 2021 lost by 21 @KC. Over matched in both much like they will be this week and it showed both times.

Steelers D on the road since Wilson took over.

@Baltimore- Pitt allowed 34 points, a TD+ in every quarter. Henry went off late

@Philly- Pitt allowed 27, a score in every quarter (td in 3 of 4). I'll give you no Pickens

@Cincy- won the game 44-38, Cincy allowed 8 Pitt wrs catches of 20+ (insanely horrific D).

@Cleveland- gave up 24 and lost. 24 to the Browns even though Clev had 3 turnovers!

@Wash-Pitt won 28-27 out of the bye

Yeah Ravens gonna score 28+

I want zero part of an under in this game
 
I am very wary of the Chargers.

2-5 vs playoff teams with only 2 wins being vs Broncos (fringe playoff team)

Secondary that has fell apart at times this season facing one of the best wr in football.

Offense that has sputtered often this season- these woes are all forgotten by most because they finished the season beating on bad teams who have given up (I was on the Chargers ats last two weeks pretty heavy).

Chargers scored

17 vs Tampa

17 @ KC

17 @ Atl

15 @ Zona

10 @ Pitt

Yeah I'm good on backing a road fave with those point totals.
 
Added Nico TD prop and some smaller 1st tds props. I might just be checking in at the half or live in the Chargers/Texans game.
 
Good stuff Lex. Completely agree on the Chargers, but since Houston was 5-1, they have been bad. 5-6 with zero wins over a team with a winning record. I have been looking for a reason to take Houston but haven’t been able to. Prob will lay off.

Hope to see the Chiefs/Bills rematch we deserve
 
Locked in a horrible number on Bills tt as 27.5-120 is around. I had already told myself anything under 29 gets played 1st round....didn't expect a total drop.




Added

Ravens ML/Bills tt 24.5/Rams tt o20.5 +188

I was very close to playing Bills tt o24.5-175 straight.


Other wagers that are on my radar for this week



Steelers/Ravens total dropping I am on over or nothing.

Thinking about these wagers- I consider these pretty strong parlay legs.

Ravens tt o23.5/Henry TD-104

James Cook td/o59.5 rush & rec +125

Barkley rush yds o99.5 This is why he got the contract.

Hurts td-117- dude is a td vulture concussed or not.

Puka props every way shape & form.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Locked in a horrible number on Bills tt as 27.5-120 is around. I had already told myself anything under 29 gets played 1st round....didn't expect a total drop.




Added

Ravens ML/Bills tt 24.5/Rams tt o20.5 +188

I was very close to playing Bills tt o24.5-175 straight.


Other wagers that are on my radar for this week



Steelers/Ravens total dropping I am on over or nothing.

Thinking about these wagers- I consider these pretty strong parlay legs.

Ravens tt o23.5/Henry TD-104

James Cook td/o59.5 rush & rec +125

Barkley rush yds o99.5 This is why he got the contract.

Hurts td-117- dude is a td vulture concussed or not.

Puka props every way shape & form.
Click to expand...
Sounds like 25mph winds in Baltimore.
 
9-4 +19.84

Very happy with results, 3 losses were +1000 or more (Chargers score 1 more time in 2ndh and I cash +1350) one was +250.

Texans D is for real

Ravens rushing attack unreal

A couple added


Bills 2ndh tt o13.5-125

4 units


Bills-2.5/game o44/Cook TD (+180)

2 units
 
Currently looking into props for the Bills game, as I said I think they score a bunch but trying to see who may have a big game nobody is expecting to....

Bills 2ndh o13.5- I don't think I have ever played a 2ndh tt before a game has started but this one is too good to ignore

Bills 8 home games, 2ndh results

Cardinals- 24 pts scored

Jags- 13 pts scored (lead 34-3 at half)

Titans-27

Dolphins- 24

Chiefs- 14

49ers- 14

Patriots- 17

Jets- 28

So the Bills have scored 14+ in 7 of 8 second half home games. The only one they didn't was when they lead by 31 at halftime! Yes It's juiced but for good reason- Bills 2ndh adjustments have been great this season and I think it continues. Fwiw here's the tally of who scored

Allen- 3 rushes
Cooper- 3
Mack-2
Cook-2
Rayray-2
Shakir-2
Keon-1
ty-1
Samuel-1

Morris, Shaver & Bills D 1 each as well. So it can come from anywhere but I think 2+ tds for Buffalo 2ndh is imminent. Might look at td props at halftime just to see who hasn't scored yet/who looks live.
 
Josh Allen o1.5 td passes-107

Josh Allen pass& rush o285.5-115

2 units each



+705
Bills-13.5/ gm o44/ Packers tt o17.5/ Jacobs anytime td

+6650
Shakir rec yds 30+
Hollins rec yds o15.5
Ty johnson rec yds o8.5
Cook rush yds 50+
Barkley rec yds 20+
AJ Brown td
Jacobs TD

half unit each
 
That is all from me I'll be back at the half maybe

Hollins+450

Cooper+370

these were the 2 Bills longshot tds I considered but I'll wait until half and likely play one
 
Ok last for real

+340
bills-5.5
Packers/eagles o43
Commanders+4.5

1 unit



+3510

Cooper td
Shakir td
Barkley longest rush o20.5

.25 units
 
GL tonight man, all go hand in hand obviously. I'm only a little concerned about receiving props due to the move to natural grass and Glendale is notorious for turf issues.
 
I have thoughts on this in the other thread... I don't think Darnold is all of a sudden trash and to me Minny has been the better team all season long. I know level of competition is being called into question but to me they pass the eye test. I like the Rams and did think they were a sleeper in the playoffs but I just don't think the secondary will be able to stop minny tonight.

Jefferson is the best wr in football (along with chase) and he's off a bad game. Locked down and dropped a couple too. Ultimate rebound spot wouldn't be surprised to see him go for 150+. Look at his #s for why I played longest rec. Might still play an alternate yds spread but as you see I'm already heavily invested.

Playoffs are a different beast the elite offensive players in the game are most likely going to shine

Nico
Henry
Saquan
Allen

Jefferson!
 
KJ said:
GL tonight man, all go hand in hand obviously. I'm only a little concerned about receiving props due to the move to natural grass and Glendale is notorious for turf issues.
Click to expand...
yeah I would take JJeff in this spot on ice skates in sand so natural grass won't keep me off.

I have a heavy over lean but I'm hoping for a slow start so I can maybe hop on @44.5 or so....
 
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