***Playoff Lex***

Just wrong wrong wrong last night. I knew going in Darnold was the only concern and it was a valid one....

Hit the parlay but got skunked on every other wager, yikes. Most upset I didn't bang Vikings tt u14.5 2ndh I just stared at the line in disbelief and never locked it in. If I had already had cashed just one JJ prop it would have been a 5 unit banger IDK wtf I was thinking not at least playing 1 unit. PLayoff profits took a hit but hey up after round 1 and my Bills are still in it!


Playoffs 18-24 +12.16


I'll have Bills thoughts sometime tomorrow when I can get it all down. Obv by my wager you can tell my favorite play on board is Bills tt o25.5. I will definitely be on Bills TT 2ndh for the same reasons as last week (scroll to read). Bills currently +1.5 juiced 2ndh really hoping for a 12.5 2ndh TT will be a banger
 
Lexington 125 said:
Just wrong wrong wrong last night. I knew going in Darnold was the only concern and it was a valid one....

Hit the parlay but got skunked on every other wager, yikes. Most upset I didn't bang Vikings tt u14.5 2ndh I just stared at the line in disbelief and never locked it in. If I had already had cashed just one JJ prop it would have been a 5 unit banger IDK wtf I was thinking not at least playing 1 unit. PLayoff profits took a hit but hey up after round 1 and my Bills are still in it!


Playoffs 18-24 +12.16


I'll have Bills thoughts sometime tomorrow when I can get it all down. Obv by my wager you can tell my favorite play on board is Bills tt o25.5. I will definitely be on Bills TT 2ndh for the same reasons as last week (scroll to read). Bills currently +1.5 juiced 2ndh really hoping for a 12.5 2ndh TT will be a banger
Click to expand...
Had fun taking those Bills over props Sunday. Only 1 I lost was Allen’s rushing yards over 46.5. He had 46. How do these guys know to make it 46.5 is pretty random.
 
Commanders/lions o55.5

3 units


Gibbs rush yds o84.5 & td (+140)

Amon ra td-122

2 units each


Gibbs 2tds/amon ra rec yds o99.5 &td (+1700)

1 unit
 
3-7 -3.19 saturday

Had a couple unposted Gibbs props that cashed along with some live sides/overs that didn't make sense to post late. Amon-Ra couldn't find the ez for the +1700.....Almost grabbed Texans live at a juiced 12.5 huge but in the end I backed out.

@wiseplayer As far as the ML at the time I was very confident in the +9.5 so felt like it was almost a free roll. Felt like the defense was definitely keeping them in the game and at the time Nico wasn't all banged up. Dumb bet? Maybe but for a half unit 3 to 1 on a d playing great.... also heavily influenced by the thought that the KC/Det ML was not going to hit. Just picked the wrong one. Total was there for the taking Houston had the shot but Oline got demolished at the end. The rushed 4th down attempt was beyond goofy

At least the Wash/Lions total was a breeze.



Still mulling over props but I have a couple in. Just going to repost all the wagers for today in one post. Might pop in for a couple Bills thoughts ingame.
 
Lexington 125 said:
3-7 -3.19 saturday

Had a couple unposted Gibbs props that cashed along with some live sides/overs that didn't make sense to post late. Amon-Ra couldn't find the ez for the +1700.....Almost grabbed Texans live at a juiced 12.5 huge but in the end I backed out.

@wiseplayer As far as the ML at the time I was very confident in the +9.5 so felt like it was almost a free roll. Felt like the defense was definitely keeping them in the game and at the time Nico wasn't all banged up. Dumb bet? Maybe but for a half unit 3 to 1 on a d playing great.... also heavily influenced by the thought that the KC/Det ML was not going to hit. Just picked the wrong one. Total was there for the taking Houston had the shot but Oline got demolished at the end. The rushed 4th down attempt was beyond goofy

At least the Wash/Lions total was a breeze.



Still mulling over props but I have a couple in. Just going to repost all the wagers for today in one post. Might pop in for a couple Bills thoughts ingame.
Click to expand...
I was on the same page with you and definitely thought Houston ML was worth the risk. I just kept thinking in the back of my mind KC is on a historic path to three peat and it seems they’ll continue to get calls to assist them to the Super Bowl. A divisional loss would really be shocking. Keep up the great work!
 
Been back & forth about how I wanted to play props in bills game. As far as game plan goes I do think the Bills will run but I have a feeling Brady will come with a gameplan to attack the corners... As I have said before Allen can connect with anyone but in this case I think the size advantage on the outside might be something Brady will try and test. Shakir will get his targets and I have him in a couple small parlays to get o40 yds but I am playing both Cooper & Keon. I also think Allen will once again shine so pass & rush over for me. Playing Cook on principle +105 at home. The disrespect. Allen on the big stage at home where he hasn't been stopped and everyone is talking about the unstoppable Henry. Whole Bills team feels snubbed and underappreciated no all-pros with a chance to show the world they deserve a rematch with KC.

I'll take my lumps if the Bills flame out but I trust in Allen to get the job done. I have a ton of dumb small parlays going no reason to post them all these are the biggies.


Bills-105

4 units




Allen pass & rush yds o290.5

Cook TD+105

Allen TD-110

2 units each



Allen passing tds o2.5+245

Keon rec yds o24.5 & TD (+425)

Cooper rec yds o23.5 & TD (+525)

Barkley anytime td/Allen 2 tds (+919)

1 unit each


Barkley rush yds o99.5 & 2 TD/ Cook rush & rec o59.5 & TD (+1210)

Rams tt o14.5/Eagles tt o20.5/Allen pass o259.5 & o2.5 tds/Bills tt o28.5 (+1915)

half unit each
 
Last edited:
Rams+7

1.5 units


Told myself i would play if it got to 7 so here we are. Eagles the better team but Rams have something good going and I could see a nailbiter. Was close to puka props but I'll just root for a good game while I go crazy waiting for Bills game
 
Bills pk is a 4 unit play.

Bills tt o25.5 along with alternates biggest wagers of the season for me.

No Ravens props because I'm not rooting for anything but Bills in a playoff game. Justice Hill looks undervalued to me.

Bills win 34-24 LFG
 
Playoffs 27-43 +17.3

As long as the big ones cash I'm happy. Hit a couple unposted longshots (ty Gibbs/Barkley/Allen!) but Bills tt over was actually the biggest play of my life. I will never post a GOY or anything but that was the most confident I could be in a wager so glad it worked out.

Big shout out to Bass who absolutely drilled that 51 yarder and what proved to be the game sealer. Not going to get too much into last week but let's not act like the Ravens win if Andrews catches that. 1:33 and 3 timeouts Josh was getting that W.

Bills thoughts

Line is right KC HAS to be favored at home given the record, history, etc. This is going to be an epic game. Some things I noticed from the first game

Buffalo had great success containing Mahomes last time. He didn't record a rushing yard and they kept a spy on him the whole game. Again Milano wasn't around but Dorian williams played a great game spying a majority of the time. They also held Kelce to 2 catches for 8 yards. While that os unlikely to happen again I do expect the Bills to employ a similar defense with a qb spy and extra coverage on Kelce. The difference to me is that Buffalo will have better personnel in the front 7. Another difference is that KC has film on what Buffalo will likely plan to do- you just can't ignore that Reid is an offensive mastermind so I do think they will have a plan to combat the spy this time around.

Rapp I would just assume is done for the season. The status of Benford is paramount for Buffalo. I would think another game time call but they NEED him. He has been by far the best player in the secondary and is big & physical. Without him I would lean towards a shootout- rasul has not made the splash plays he did last season and has gotten beat pretty bad a couple times. I can't believe I'm saying this but Damar has been playing great. That being said if he gets caught in 1 on 1 coverage vs Brown or Worthy he will get roasted.

Last week we saw the Bills D line wreak havoc on the Ravens, especially 1sth. They were getting the push almost every snap. If they replicate that performance KC offense could be in trouble. Rousseau is balling out and as I said Oliver responded last week. My concern is mainly the secondary if Pat gets time to run around in the pocket. No Rapp means Cole Bishop back there. He's shown great strides but in the end a rookie safety vs Mahomes in a playoff game would make any fan uneasy.

Offensively the Bills jumped ahead to a big lead and then got pretty conservative last week. I can't see a world where the same thing happens this week. KC defense is as good as advertised, but I do think the Bills offense matches up well with them. A huge strength is McDuffie but no clear #1 Allen can keep it away from him. I do think Shakir might be the weapon here (along with Kincaid) as he can go underneath and makes huge plays. Chris Jones as good as they come, but again I think the Bills o line is on a mission and have been winning consistently. I think they can keep the pocket clean enough for Josh to make plays, and they should get enough from the run game to keep KC off balance.


So far the only wager I made was the Bills TT o23.5.

I am waiting to see what's up with Benford before I do anything. I'll be back with more thoughts just wanted to get a little something out there.
 
Lexington 125 said:
+240
Bills+4.5but
Bills/kc o43.5
Allen td

2 units
Click to expand...

Man I was so close to tailing this but with Allen passing tds rather than a rush td but I put one of their damn tight ends receiving yards in almost every parlay. I’ll never understand why they were an afterthought against a kc d that struggled defending te’s all year! Then again that was only half as baffling as cook only getting 4 carries in 1st half. Don’t you think it time to ax this entire coaching staff?? This game was ripe for them to win the gm built what I think is was a perfect offensive roster to beat kc and once again McNuggets and co shit the bed: Mr defensive coach started this run of losing to kc with that awful defensive performance after the amazing game by Allen just to waste it by letting kc drive field in 3 plays w no time then march right down and win in ot: fast forward and he given a physically dominant offense which they choose to abandon before the opening kick! Some ppl can’t seem to think they can’t fire a guy who gets team routinely pretty deep in playoffs but I think just bout any assistant or HC in high school, college, or nfl could get Allen to basically same spot McNuggets can’t get past. Can’t be hard to find another mediocre coach which McNuggets is, and just maybe they find a good coach who takes advantage of the roster given to him!!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Lexington 125
***18***
Replies
37
Views
904
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
***17***
Replies
35
Views
1K
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
Lexington 125
***Week 2 Lex***
Replies
31
Views
687
Timh
Timh
Lexington 125
***Week 9 Lex***
2
Replies
53
Views
936
wiseplayer
wiseplayer
Lexington 125
***Playoff Lex***
2
Replies
70
Views
4K
wiseplayer
wiseplayer
Back
Top