Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2008

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 42-27

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 15-16
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 27-11


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 19-16

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 10-10
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O _9-6


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 23-11

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _5-6
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 18-5

Clearly the prime spot to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond, when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.

The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they win SU: O/U 7-0
Elimination games they lose SU: O/U 2-2

For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

07-08 Elimination game results


Round 1

PHX-SAS Game 4 - Under
SAS-PHX Game 5 - Under

DEN-LAK Game 4 - Under
ORL-TOR Game 5 - Under
HOU-UTH Game 5 - Under
NOR-DAL Game 5 - Push
CLE-WAS Game 5 - Under
PHI-DET Game 6 - Under
WAS-CLE Game 6 - Over
BOS-ATL Game 6 - Over
UTH-HOU Game 6 - Over
BOS-ATL Game 7 - Under


Round 2

DET-ORL Game 5 - Under
SAS-NOR Game 6 - Under
CLE-BOS Game 6 - Under
UTH-LAK Game 6 - Push
BOS-CLE Game 7 - Over
NOR-SAS Game 7 - Under


Round 3

LAK-SAS Game 5 - Over
DET-BOS Game 6 - Under


Round 4

LAK-BOS Game 5 - Over
BOS-LAK Game 6 - Over

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This article below does not figure in results from the 06-07 post season (but imo such a lack doesn't undermine the stats related).


<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]THE NBA PLAYOFFS - THE TOTAL PICTURE [/FONT]


</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]by: Tom Scott [/FONT]



</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]2007-04-11 17:02:40 [/FONT]





</TD></TR><TR><TD>[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]As a bettor myself, I look forward to the NBA Playoffs, mostly because I win. Annually, I make a significant profit during this event which allows me to enjoy the summer without having to worry about paying for pool chemicals. The reason for my success (31-15 ATS over the past three years on this site) in these events is that I do not allow myself to get caught up in the drama, maintaining a calm unbiased attitude toward the games that are played. In this article, I will pass along some of my handicapping techniques to help you navigate through this period without having to take a second mortgage on the house. [/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN DECIDING TO PLAY THE TOTALS, most every plunger looks for the Over first. It's a natural tendency formed mostly by the idea that, if you take the OVER, you can't lose until the game is complete. You can lose the Under anytime during the second half. For that reason alone, the linemaker adjusts nightly in favor of the Over and because he is doing so without sound reasoning, we can take him out behind the woodshed and thrash him from pillar to post.[/FONT]​


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's start this treatise with one simple rule - "NEVER PLAY THE OVER IN AN NBA PLAYOFF GAME". Flat statements don't get any flatter than that but this one isn't just a whimsical warning, it's backed by the facts. Except for the games in which the OU Line is 220 or higher, the UNDER won more times than the OVER in all six of the line categories (ranges of ten starting with 160-169.5). What follows is a set of eight different situations where the UNDER prevails profitably.[/FONT]​


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE GAME HAS:[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]​


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHEN THE TOURNAMENT ROUND OR GAME NUMBER IS: [/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game two of any series in which the OVER connected in game one and the Game Two OU Line is less than 184, the UNDER has won 34 times in 52 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game three of any series where the home team scored more than 97 in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 193, the UNDER has won 37 times in 55 tries.[/FONT]​


[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you add up all eight of those records, you will find 436 UNDERS against just 272 OVERS, A profitable 61.6% winners [/FONT]​




</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

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So, if I Double Up the Units's wagers ( On the UNDER) everytime I loss ( previous game) -ROI will ...


Any opinion will be appreciate .

Thanks,


:shake:
 
JoJo - obviously I find it impossible to think we'd go through an entire post season without at least 2-3 (let alone 1) elimination game Under results, but if you were to chase, I'd stick to chasing game 6s & 7s.

blue - I hear you, but then I also think you're going to see some un-Suns like total lines vs the Spurs. A case of simply appreciating the line on the day and working things out from there.
 
So maybe -I'm jumping the "gun" and wager UNDER in PHX / SAN game 3 ? regardless ... Total number ?

PHX back to the wall now -they are in " Must WIN" game !

LOL...Shaq ....what's gonna be !


:36_11_6:
 
elimination game in orl on mon - 4/28. so we hit the under?

current line from pinnacle is
over 203 -111
under203 +101

thoughts?
 
cream - games 4 & 5 are simply 50-50 propositions, no clear advantage for taking unders in such games based on the elimination factor alone
 
thanks for the reply bc.

haven't seen a line yet for the den-lak game. between the two games though, i think the under in orl-tor has more potential. i see toronto having difficulty scoring on the road.
 
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[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Regarding Playoff Unders in general, there are two games today (4/27) that meet at least one of the specs above:

Cleveland@Washington [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif](non-elimination game)[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif] Result: Over [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]

A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]
​
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
NO@Dallas [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif](non-elimination game)[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif] Result: UNDER

A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.

Reminder: The stats in the article referenced do not include results from last year's playoffs.
[/FONT]​
 
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07-08 Elimination game results


Round 1


DEN-LAK Game 4 - Under
ORL-TOR Game 5 - Under

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

I love this forum MORE & MORE -

Good insight = $$$$= Lot of Dough !!!


Thanks So much !
 
I'm thinking 1 or both of the 2 games that apply Tuesday won't go to script, JJ, so tread carefully.

Nawlins had a home-Over bias this season, and a road-Under bias. So far thats gone to plan perfectly in their series with Dallas, and I don't think Houston has accepted a series loss yet. I think both they and the Jazz will be hitting the 90s in their one.
 
I'm thinking 1 or both of the 2 games that apply Tuesday won't go to script, JJ, so tread carefully.


Thanks-


:cheers:
 
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no - dallas under cashes by 1.5.

i had u194.5. it was a close call but a win nonetheless. hope you cashed jojo.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I'm thinking 1 or both of the 2 games that apply Tuesday won't go to script, JJ, so tread carefully.

Nawlins had a home-Over bias this season, and a road-Under bias. So far thats gone to plan perfectly in their series with Dallas, and I don't think Houston has accepted a series loss yet. I think both they and the Jazz will be hitting the 90s in their one.[/quote]

BC,

You owe me a Dinner for 4 at Olive Garden !

Only wagered half of the amount suppose to wager ! LOL...

Many Thanks !

:cheers:

- It 's 3-0 for the nite !

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:
:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:
Click to expand...
 
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I'm just thankful for the line moves which had me pass both those. Unreal the amount of Unders so far. I hope this tide doesnt turn when we eventually have a few games 6s & 7s.
 
i'm playing the over huge in wash/cle. any insight the next 12 minutes appreciated. wake up bc.
 
EHS49 said:
i'm playing the over huge in wash/cle. any insight the next 12 minutes appreciated. wake up bc.
Click to expand...

Just wonder -why do you want to against the TREND ? either pass or stick with the Under

BOL,

:shake:
 
the under is on an amazing run(24-14-1). i don't understand why oddsmakers hane not adjusted yet. moreover, this year seems crazy in NBA with a lot of teams having ATS strike rate over 55% such as the celtics, lakers, orlando whereas these teams are public teams. it's unbelievable that they stayed underpriced all season long.
 
JoJo said:
Just wonder -why do you want to against the TREND ? either pass or stick with the Under

BOL,

:shake:
Click to expand...

agreed. told myself that after the first 12 minutes of the game. under or no play. i'm on this detroit under tonight. read marlo's thread. :tiphat:
 
I dont like the line having dropped, and I dont like its in Utah - better team at the venue I think is more conducive to scoring (the only Over in this series came in Utah)
 
linewatcher said:
imma roll the dice one more time...houston vs. utah u180.5
Click to expand...

BetCrimes1984 said:
I dont like the line having dropped, and I dont like its in Utah - better team at the venue I think is more conducive to scoring (the only Over in this series came in Utah)
Click to expand...


Also on that note if Utah finally puts together a full game effort, such as Detroit did tonight, a blowout only helps produce an over in that scenario. Anybody, myself included, who bet the under in Philly had to really sweat the last 6 minutes out. Utah is 10-1 this year off a 10 point+ loss. Jazz correlated with the over isn't the worst looking parlay ever, but I'm not about to bet against elemination game under trends.
 
i respect your thoughts on this topic, bc and jpicks, but i have a real strong feeling about this under. besides the statistical trends of elimination games, there are intersections of other under angles in the playoffs (such as going for a team who held an opponent under 75 pts in its last game--as per the article above). houston and utah both have under tendencies (such as after a loss and/or win, games played in utah between these two teams, etc). i also feel that tmac and co. will stiffen up in this game. we all know tmac chokes in these types of big games. besides, both know each other very well by now and i feel we will see a game ending in the 80's for both squads--let's call it 89-80 utah.:popcorn:

lastly, bc, i did notice that the line dropped a few points from game one...but it's totally justified. the last two games totalled in the 160's--meaning that both defenses are tightening up. i would be worried if the line did not move at all for this game 6...


..but, who knows...and as i said earlier, i'm going to roll one more time. if i hit it, imma party like its 1999. if i don't it will be okay...:shake:
 
the last two games totalled in the 160's
Click to expand...

Thats true, but I put that down to Utah being less energised than they could have been (built upon arrogance gained from starting the series 2-0 on the road, and then being caught on the hop by Houston's non-lay-down reply w/Alston back). I think you'll see Utah's best offensive effort of this series in this game (and Houston get the message that they'll have to score themselves if they want to compete til the end - the kind of game I suspected would come in game 5, but Utah quit any effort in that one altogether). I am considering over, depends where the line is/odds are come near gametime.
 
What about betting all unders today (Friday) because of your trend betcrimes?

Or it would maybe seem a little worrying that so many of game 4 and 5 has gone under as the lines may be lower than the should be?

Lines have been pretty sharp so far as well, usually over or under by only a couple of points like yesterdays 1p -
 
ssjos - aside from my thoughts already posted on the Utah game,
I have no interest at all in backing Over in Cleveland (if it goes Over, it'll be because of a scoreline similar to game 2 imo - if Washington competes I think CLE hits the 90s, and Wash hits the 90s at best),
Click to expand...
and no interest in backing Under in Atlanta (the 2 totals there in have been 189 & 195, and I think Atlanta will fare better offensively than what Philly did in the same position/elimination game at home).

edit: please ignore that quoted part, complete brain fade on my part as I thought the game (at the time I wrote that) was being played in Cleveland (hence my reference to game 2). The game has just tipped off so I realise this is probably too late.
 
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What will the refs allow the Jazz to get away with?


The Utah Jazz might be the NBA's most physical team. They're shoves and elbows and hard body contact. This is no knock on the Jazz. They play the way almost every NBA coach would love his team to play. They work officials the way Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux worked umps.
They do what they do so consistently that they eventually get the calls. Otherwise, a whistle would blow every 20 seconds and the game would last four hours.

The Rockets know this. They're not looking for any breaks. They're simply looking for refs that will call the game the way the rule book says it should be called.

When Tracy McGrady has the ball in his hands, the Jazz aren't supposed to be able to mug him and get away with it. In a hostile environment, it takes a tough referee to consistently make that call. If the game is called by a crew that gets caught up in the emotion and the crowd, the Rockets could be cooked. Or maybe not.

Coaches are reluctant to mention officiating to their players because it could create a mindset they don't want. The Rockets believe they'll win Game 6 tonight if they move the ball and shoot it the way they did in Game 5. They'll attack Utah's big men in the lane. But they're going to need some breathing room, and only the refs can give them that.
At the same time, they can't help the Jazz out by giving up on plays when they think they're being fouled. They have to keep attacking no matter the circumstances.

The Rockets have sent the NBA office video of calls fouls they think should have been called in the first four games. They at least want the league office to have some of those calls in mind when the game begins. Ultimately, it'll be decided by the players. If the Rockets take care of their business they'll win. A tight call from the refs here and there wouldn't hurt, either.
Click to expand...

In this series, games in Utah have already averaged 55.5 FT attempts/game vs. 45.6 for games in Houston, and those games were before Houston had sent their little video package to the NBA offices. Increased FT numbers can only hurt the Under, obviously.
 
Non-elimination games Saturday - both meet this spec:

The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries. [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Reminder: The stats referenced do not include results from last season's playoffs.[/FONT]
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
[FONT=&quot]San Antonio@New Orleans Result: opening line UNDER, but push or over later depending on line

Orlando@Detroit Result:[/FONT] UNDER

Note: I am not recommending plays here - just making an attempt to keep track. GLTA.

P.S. Re: The Utah game: linewatcher, there's always next time. BetCrimes, hope you got your bet in.
 [FONT=&quot] <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]-->[/FONT]
 
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playtowin said:
Non-elimination games Saturday - both meet this spec:

The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries. [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Reminder: The stats referenced do not include results from last season's playoffs.[/FONT]
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
[FONT=&quot]San Antonio@New Orleans Result:

Orlando@Detroit Result:[/FONT] .

Note: I am not recommending plays here - just making an attempt to keep track. GLTA.


P.S. Re: The Utah game: linewatcher, there's always next time. BetCrimes, hope you got your bet in.
[FONT=&quot]<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<!--[endif]-->[/FONT]
Click to expand...

SAN / NO - I got 1 wager Push - the other win by a hook ! :36_11_6:
ORL / DET - Easy winner ! :36_11_6::36_11_6:

I loved this TREND in the playoff series ! ( this year-so far)

Once again ,thanks BC for the thread ! & Playtowin -for this posted

:cheers:
 
Non-elimination game Tuesday meets 2 of the article's specs:
[FONT=&quot]Cleveland@Boston Result: UNDER (way under)
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.<o></o>[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The first game of any second round series and the OU Line is less than 206, the UNDER has won 58 times in 100 tries.[/FONT]

Notes: The second spec is only supposed to be around 58%, and it's 2 for 2 (opening lines). The other time 2 non-elimination specs were met so far this season, game went over. So, might be time to stay away or even fade?

JoJo: BC does great work here. Glad if I can contribute a bit. Good luck.
[FONT=&quot]<o>
</o>[/FONT]
 
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Yeah, I'm thinking if the run of Fav ATS results ends, it'll be because this game went Under. Don't see Cleveland piling on the points, so any Over is led by Boston scoring, which would entail them winning ATS. I'll be very suprised if Cleveland covered an over game.
 
Non-elimination game Thursday meets 2 of the article's specs:

Cleveland@Boston [FONT=&quot]Result: UNDER[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.

Reminder: Stats do not include last season's playoffs.
[/FONT]​
 
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playtowin said:
Non-elimination game Thursday meets 2 of the article's specs:

Cleveland@Boston

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Reminder: Stats do not include last season's playoffs.[/FONT]​
Click to expand...

** CLE on a Zig-Zag :4-3 U/O run with total numbers since GM1 vs WAS

Only 2 units ! but It's a "W" :36_11_6::36_11_6:

Playtowin -:cheers:
 
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Non-elimination game Friday meets one of the article's specs:

LA@Utah Result: UNDER

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Game three of any series where the home team scored more than 97 in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 193, the UNDER has won 37 times in 55 tries.

[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif] Reminder: Stats do not include last season's playoffs.

JoJo :cheers:

Good luck, everyone.
[/FONT]
 
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Non-elimination games Saturday meet at least one of the article's specs:

Detroit@Orlando Result: UNDER

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.

[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.

[/FONT]Boston@Cleveland Result: Over

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Reminder: Stats do not include last season's playoffs.[/FONT]
 
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