Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2008

[playtowin]

Sunday's non-elimination games each meet two of the specs as well.

LA@Utah Result: Over

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.

[/FONT]New Orleans@San Antonio Result: UNDER

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.

[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]
​

 

[playtowin]

Monday's non-elimination game meets the same two specs as well.

Boston@Cleveland Result: UNDER

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]

 

[playtowin]

Orlando@Detroit Result: UNDER

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
This is a Game 5 elimination game. Elimination games 4 and 5 of the 2nd round in past years are U/O 5-6 (from BetCrime's stats on the first post of this thread). So, this one may deserve a pass. [/FONT]

On the other hand, Marlo makes a good case for the under,[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif] and it does meet the following specs:

A road underdog who is off exactly one playoff loss playing in the third game or later of the current series and the OU Line is greater than 177.5, the UNDER has won 76 times in 128 tries.[/FONT]​

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite off exactly one win against a .600 or better opponent , the UNDER has won 97 times in 155 tries.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]It also nearly meets the following spec as last game's score was 90-89:
[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]
A road underdog who is off a loss and both teams scored less than 90 in their previous games, the UNDER has won 47 times in 80 tries.[/FONT]
​

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Because I think Orlando will go close to winning, I've a natural lean on Over, so won't consider Under.

 

[playtowin]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Looks like neither game Wednesday meets any of these specs.

BetCrimes, you were right about Orlando covering. [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]:cheers:[/FONT]

 

[BetCrimes1984]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Looks like neither game Wednesday meets any of these specs.

BetCrimes, you were right about Orlando covering. [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]:cheers:[/FONT]

True, but I hope I didn't put anyone off the Under. I just felt if Orlando competed it'd be via offense.

 

[playtowin]

New Orleans@San Antonio (Elimination game) Result: UNDER

Reminder from BetCrimes' first post:

2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 23-11

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _5-6
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 18-5

Clearly the prime spot to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond, when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.


Not that it matters, but this game does not meet any of the other specs.

 

[EHS49]

that is good information. hopefully for my sake after tomorrow's game, U/O record will be 18-6.

 

[playtowin]

Boston@Cleveland (Elimination game) Result: UNDER (way under)

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]This game also meets this spec:

A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.[/FONT]

LA@Utah (Elimination game) Result: Push (opening line); some lines, Over, I think

If you go by the opening Utah -3 line on the Friday 5-09 game (104-99 Utah), this game meets the same spec. If the whole range of the spread is to be considered, then it doesn't.

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]Reminder: The article's stats do not include last season's playoffs.[/FONT]

Note: BetCrimes has all of the elimination game O/U results together for this season's playoffs in the first post.

 

[EHS49]

playtowin. thanks for trying to push me off that over. if i do like an over, should only consider 1st halves. these ridiculous pathetic quarters seem to come in the 2nd halves.

 

[linewatcher]

actually, the boston vs. cleveland game does qualify for one of them:

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A home favorite or a home underdog of less than +5 who is off three consecutive ATS wins playing a .600 or better opponent, the UNDER has won 45 times in 73 tries.[/FONT]​

i'm liking this one....

 

[playtowin]

playtowin. thanks for trying to push me off that over. if i do like an over, should only consider 1st halves. these ridiculous pathetic quarters seem to come in the 2nd halves.

EHS, I just offered something for you to consider. And, really, I wanted to know your take. No system or trend play is perfect, of course. I just try to remember that "the trend is your friend" most of the time.

By the way, your current username description "Bringing Sexy Back" is made for the Jackie Moon avatar you used to have.

 

[playtowin]

My post for Friday's games was in error and is now corrected. Glad you caught that, linewatcher.

 

[playtowin]

Cleveland@Boston (Elimination game) [FONT=&quot]Result:

Also meets spec below (Friday game 74 - 69 score).

[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A team (either side) who allowed less than 75 points in its previous game and the OU Line is greater than 170, the UNDER has won 42 times in 64 tries.[/FONT]

 

[JoJo]

Round 3

LAK-SAS Game 5 - 193.5 ??
DET-BOS Game 6 -

Are we gonna Ride the streak - UNDER

Or...

... will be interesting !

 

[JoJo]

and the STREAK are keep on coming ....


:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

irony is it went over the opening line

 

[All In]

BC, you like the under tonight? I barely squeezed by with the under yday. If Sahsa didnt hit that 3, I would have middled the sides as well with Spurs +7.5 for game and taking Lakers at half. (Forgot the line, but Lakers had to win by 3. ) Lakers up 5 and Sasha throws up a useless 3 that only affects the gamblers...go figure.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

All In - the one thing that's screwed up my totals approach/method to this post season, is the simple preponderance of under results. Pre-elimination games, there's usually been significantly more Over results in the past, which to my mind added weight to the expectation of under results come elimination games (specifically the ones I look to back, game 6s & 7s). With that not being the case this post season, my perception re:stat patterns has shifted to looking out for Over corrections, and in a sense that has happened for games 6 & 7, which are only 5-4-1 to Under compared to 7-1-1 to Under for games 4 & 5. The former results express somehwat of an "over comeback" when usually it's the other way round (game 6s & 7s going under more often) as previous seasons stats show. Once i saw the game 4s & 5s bucking the usual trend, I kept away from the 6s & 7s: couldn't back against their established under bias, but couldnt shake my experience telling me they'd be subject to an Over correction.

So to make a long story short, imo that Over correction isn't done (it'll be this way til the p.s. is finished) so I've the same dilemma. Can't back against the Under trend for such elimination games, can't back against an already proven (of sorts) Over correction.

 

[All In]

I have noticed this trend not as strong as the past...I figured it was Vegas adjusting the line to this trend....thanks for ur opinion

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I have noticed this trend not as strong as the past...I figured it was Vegas adjusting the line to this trend....thanks for ur opinion

1 Over & 1 Push result I've recorded have been Under results on closing lines, I simply record based on opening lines. Overall been a good p.s. for elimination game Unders.
As far as game 6s & 7s go, if the earlier (non-/elimination) games hadnt been going Under at such a rate, then things would be different.