Player Props

[s--k]

Feel like this could be a weekly thread - @2daBank

So I have never done these. I can drive 10-20 minutes from here and bet on the app like most people can now.

I'm just looking...draftkings, the two TCU WRs listed, Derius Davis and Taye Barber. The expectation is that TCU is going to throw alot. And while we don't know who will get the TDs, these guys are listed as O/U .5. Davis Over +190, Under -260 and Barber Over +255, Under -370. If you bet them both over and one scores a single TD and one doesn't, you still make money. Maybe they both score. These were TCU's #2 and #3 receivers last year. It would seem reasonable that TCU has some passing TDs in this game given the offense of Dykes and given that CU has some CB inexperience.

How does the thought process on this go? Do you typically play multiple players from the same team or just try and make the best bet on a single guy? I don't play fantasy or anything, well I haven't in many years.

 

[2daBank]

I’m gonna do a prop thread I think, I just havnt started it yet cause I havnt bet any yet this week and I worry bout sharing props till after I bet them. I don’t think it takes a lot to move these! I know I ain’t ever and won’t ever move a side, props don’t seem like it takes a lot! Lol

I don’t have a rule/preference either way. Last year when they had the balls to give numbers on teams like wku I was hitting a lot of guys in same game. If I like a qb over his td passes I def look for his wrs to catch one of them. Last week i played 2 vandy guys that didn’t even correlate, the qb over rush yards and one his rb to score a td.

Honestly I wasn’t expecting them to have numbers out so soon, I have stuff ready for sat but I been so busy w baseball this week after I saw they came out w numbers for Thursday I figure they most likely got bet so now I assume they ain’t moving much again till Thursday so I plan on spending all day 2marro on them and betting them 2marro afternoon. I def like the idea you talking bout, I have no idea on tcu game yet so I can’t say I like those guys in particular but I think your logic sound, if you like the qb to throw tds it def worth going after the plus money on a few his wrs.

I don’t think you read baseball threads so you prob don’t know this but few months ago I had a detached/torn retina and had to have eye surgery. Just telling you this cause while I’m almost totally recovered part of the deal was they had to put this gas bubble in my eye to hold the shit together by pushing on it or some shit while it healed, anyways this bubble not quite gone (supposed to be by end the week!!) and it really hard on me after a whole day of numbers, looking at screen, typing, I’d like to go deeper into these w ya but my brain/eye totally spent, I have to rest for a few hours, I was just getting ready to stop posting/talking bases when you sent this so didn’t want to leave you hanging. I have very small baseball card 2marro, im already done with it so I be thrilled to start talking these w yiu 2marro when I can get my notes out and start doing rest my work on it.

There a qb yards play I think I love Saturday, I’ll talk to ya bout it 2marro., I plan on betting that 2marro so I was gonna start a prop thread then.

 

[survive&advance]

Feel like this could be a weekly thread - @2daBank

So I have never done these. I can drive 10-20 minutes from here and bet on the app like most people can now.

I'm just looking...draftkings, the two TCU WRs listed, Derius Davis and Taye Barber. The expectation is that TCU is going to throw alot. And while we don't know who will get the TDs, these guys are listed as O/U .5. Davis Over +190, Under -260 and Barber Over +255, Under -370. If you bet them both over and one scores a single TD and one doesn't, you still make money. Maybe they both score. These were TCU's #2 and #3 receivers last year. It would seem reasonable that TCU has some passing TDs in this game given the offense of Dykes and given that CU has some CB inexperience.

How does the thought process on this go? Do you typically play multiple players from the same team or just try and make the best bet on a single guy? I don't play fantasy or anything, well I haven't in many years.

There’s no one way to attack them, but I think bank and I have been pretty vocal about the prop market being fairly soft overall. Based on your writeup I would maybe look at the qb props, pass yardage and/or passing tds over. For tcu specifically, I don’t know enough about their wrs to feel confident personally. Based on what I’ve read Johnston and Williams are the top two options. Overall it seems like there will be some volatility with the wrs considering their depth so that is why I personally would look more towards qb stuff

 

[s--k]

Thanks. There are limited options on the draft kings site as of now.

As you say "fairly soft" in the yardage/TDs/catches, whatever number they post to wager against - but I am not going to think they make mistakes on the odds. In the example I asked about, those are heavy odds to the Unders. I don't know anything about TCU as of yet. Assuming they score atleast 4 TDs if their team total is correct then that is atleast 4 TDs going to somebody.

Only QB numbers posted on draft kinds so far was Grant Wells for VT.

 

[2daBank]

I dunno wtf going on cause now I don’t see the same shit up I saw yesterday! There was a few more up for sat but not now. Fuvk if I know, like I said my brain:eye driving me nuts as this bubble must be close to dissipating cause it taking different shapes, bouncing all around, splitting into more than 1 then going back together. I seriously gotta get off laptop and phone, There were way more up at DK the other night tho!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Remember, these move fast when a few guys bet them (like CK for example).

 

[s--k]

I still have my local out as my primary and well, I guess I did drive across state lines to bet preseason NFL games and stuff, so I guess that qualifies as a degenerate...but it's fun. Not like I need more ways to bet. That's all I'm after, love having fun with football as many ways as I can. More ways to wager and have action on games should equal more fun if the wagers are right more often than they are wrong.

 

[2daBank]

Remember, these move fast when a few guys bet them (like CK for example).

I had to stop posting my pitcher k props till I bet them cause I’d get to casino and they freaking moved! lol

 

[survive&advance]

Thanks. There are limited options on the draft kings site as of now.

As you say "fairly soft" in the yardage/TDs/catches, whatever number they post to wager against - but I am not going to think they make mistakes on the odds. In the example I asked about, those are heavy odds to the Unders. I don't know anything about TCU as of yet. Assuming they score atleast 4 TDs if their team total is correct then that is atleast 4 TDs going to somebody.

Only QB numbers posted on draft kinds so far was Grant Wells for VT.

your thought process is certainly spot on. Tcu should score 4+ touchdowns. Touchdowns in general are just tougher to cap, especially for WRs. It comes down to math and the implied probability, I just don’t know enough to cap the TCU offense to compare against the math

 

[2daBank]

I seriously gotta stop posting but I promise there were way more props for bunch of games up last 2 days and now they gone! Wtf?!!!

 

[s--k]

I also do not know enough about TCU specifically. Have heard that CB is a suspected vulnerable position for CU. I'll look for QB props for TCU, however, and this is another wild card obviously, Dykes is blowing smoke about playing multiple QBs.

 

[B.A.R.]

I had to stop posting my pitcher k props till I bet them cause I’d get to casino and they freaking moved! lol

Oh, we know you move em...

 

[survive&advance]

Jayden Reed over 0.5 tds -108 on fd is one I just bet. It’s lazy capping but it’s an auto bet for me… clear #1 option with a 38.5 team total, easy matchup, bet on talent, etc. I personally think this has a greater than 60% chance of hitting