G
Gyno
Guest
Who do you think is set for regression?
G
Gyno
Guest
Chris Young and his .206 BABIP
His xERA is 4.56
His xERA is 4.56
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Agree
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Alfredo Simon
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
Buehrle already regressed. The team is now following in his foot steps with all these injuries
az1538
Pretty much a regular
Likely to Regress, beginning with most likely:
Young
Buehrle
Wainwright
Alvarez
Beckett
Teheran
Simon
Cueto
Leaning towards regression?
Niese
Vargas
Kazmir
Lynn
Hudson
Tillman
Roark
How about those who will likely progress, starting with the most likely?
McCarthy
Nolasco
Miley
E. Jackson
Those that lean towards progression?
Wilson
Elias
Estrada
Strasburg
Bailey
Santana
Wheeler
Price too, be he's already begun his progression.
Young
Buehrle
Wainwright
Alvarez
Beckett
Teheran
Simon
Cueto
Leaning towards regression?
Niese
Vargas
Kazmir
Lynn
Hudson
Tillman
Roark
How about those who will likely progress, starting with the most likely?
McCarthy
Nolasco
Miley
E. Jackson
Those that lean towards progression?
Wilson
Elias
Estrada
Strasburg
Bailey
Santana
Wheeler
Price too, be he's already begun his progression.
az1538
Pretty much a regular
He has, and he still has a ton more coming.
G
Gyno
Guest
alvarez
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I see Gallardo progressing
az1538
Pretty much a regular
But Hammel's ERA and xERA are similar. Only like .19 difference. Usually don't expect major swings either way in ERA unless that difference is >= 1
az1538
Pretty much a regular
I wouldn't bet on it. His velocity is WAY down and he gives up too many FBs, which isn't good in Camden. His skills set is right about where his ERA should be.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
AZ - with this significant of a sample size I can't ignore Hammel's pattern on the second half regardless of his expected ERA. He is pitching in Oakland which certainly helps his cause. But he's back to the AL, so it probably negates the friendly confines of the the Colesium...
az1538
Pretty much a regular
Beckett is an interesting case. His ERA is 1.15 points lower than his xERA. Anything over 1 is a cause for concern. This difference can be attributed to some luck: he has stranded 85% of his base runners, which is well above average (meaning those runners will score soon) and his BABIP is low.
But regression is relative. We're not talking a 2.5 ERA guy they should be pitching like 4.5 like Buehrle. Beckett is a 2.26 ERA who should be pitching around 3.3-3.35, which is still solid.
Of course, this is all a maybe. You never know what can happen in baseball. Numbers can tell a story, but that story doesn't always lead to a predictable conclusion.
az1538
Pretty much a regular
Fair enough. History of 2H performance should definitely be taken into account. Hell, when you're talking about a vet like Hammel, his whole history should be taken into account. He's never pitched this well in his career. The closest he came was in 2012 but that was partially due to a HUGE spike in GB% and only pitching 112 innings.
:cheers:
G
Gyno
Guest
Love you brother but disagree here. I think he's a different pitcher now.
Will give you props if you're right.
G
Gyno
Guest
Can you post more, you're my type of baseball capper.. You see things very similar to me.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
We'll see bro. Of the two that got away from Baltimore, Arietta is the guy that looks like a different pitcher to me.
az1538
Pretty much a regular
I can indeed. My baseball stats nerd boner stems from fantasy baseball. But I've found it carries over nicely to investing. Though, I've also found that fantasy and investing are very similar: unpredictable.
:cheers:
az1538
Pretty much a regular
Wrainwright is a similar case to Beckett. We can't expect him to maintain a 1.79 ERA, but he shouldn't finish the season any higher than 3, IMO. His strand rate is also above normal (and a low BABIP) and that tends to lend itself towards an artificially low ERA.
But, Wrainwright is awesome; I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA hovered in the low 2's.
But, Wrainwright is awesome; I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA hovered in the low 2's.
CASH
Pretty much a regular
that is a fair assessment - my point is/was that his last few years in Boston and the beginning in L.A. he was pitching hurt and now that he is relatively healthy he should be pitching like his "norm". but i see a mention that his shoulder is bothering him, which i dint know and we all know that will make a huge difference..
