P2W 6/7 Belmont Stakes Day - Thoughts For Entire Card

Alive to the 4 and 8 in the finale for the Pick 6, could use it for Saturday's bankroll:

[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$2.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]P6[/TD]
[TD]4,8 / 3,5 / 1,13 / 1 / 3,4,5 / 4,8[/TD]
[TD]$96.00[/TD]
[TD]Pending[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Agree with Broadway Empire, was a game 4th last race at Churchill, but was squeezed against the rail and forced to check on the backstretch when making a middle move that caused him to lose a lot of momentum, was impressed by the way he kept running after that, if he was able to get through he has a chance to win that race and he is 8-1 here instead of 20-1. Central Banker, Normandy Invasion, Moreno, and Goldencents will all be on my tickets.

Post position really hinders Palace Malice here and he will be a play against at what will most likely be around even money.
Click to expand...
Um, i can't really add much, we see this the same exact way, I want to be against Moreno because I see a lot of early speed in here but did all the dirty work in last and cuts back, He has to be used in Pk4 tix.
 
I should have time for more in depth thoughts on these races Fri evening, here are some quick early opinions though:

<s style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(102, 181, 210); ">@</s>P2Play2win The favorite in the 1st raced on the 31st?


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6:15 PM - 5 Jun 2014





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Play2win said:
I should have time for more in depth thoughts on these races Fri evening, here are some quick early opinions though:

<s style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(102, 181, 210); ">@</s>P2Play2win The favorite in the 1st raced on the 31st?


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6:15 PM - 5 Jun 2014




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Click to expand...


Agree Legend is major factor R2,hear you bout class of Ben in R4 but he likes 5F more than 6F,i'm not trusting him at short price
 
Play2win said:
[/B][/B][/B][/B]Agree Legend is major factor R2,hear you bout class of Ben in R4 but he likes 5F more than 6F,i'm not trusting him at short price
Click to expand...

Agree here too, tons of respect for Ben's Cat and his 26 wins in 39 starts but really excels at 5F and this is not MD or PA, will be against here at the short price.
 
Capping these tough races is one thing, now how do you bet them? So many options, that's what makes this game so tough.

R1: #4 and #8 for me, start of pick 5

R2: ##7 is horse to beat and i have to use in pk5 tix but #8 interests me at a price, i thought he did more work than 1st and 2nd place finishers in his last race, i also think he isn't too far behind others that'll take money in here.

R3: I'll be using #5 and #8

R4: One of the speeds ran today (#3) so will be scratched, but still plenty of other early speeds 1,8,10 to set it up for closers like #6 and #9, those are the two i like. Ben's Cat may very well be one to beat but i'll take my chances against him going 6F

R5: A lot of early speed in here could set up for someone coming from off the pace, #2 interests me the most at 30-1 ML, his best races imo have been at 7F to 1M , troubled trip in last. In pk5's also using #10 and #12

R6: #5 the best and also using #2, will have a big win bet on #5, one of best bets of day

R7: #6 is a single for me

R8: #9 is one to beat and has to be used in multi race tix but what if her and #4 hook up early and set it up for someone else? Guess 1,3,5,9,10 are my contenders and #1 is my biggest price that i have to mess around w/, tough trip in last, shuffled and still only beaten 2.5 lengths, impressive winning in previous two races, in good form.

R9: I'm against fav #1 because of drawing inside post and pressure will be on with other speeds in here, I like #6 and #9 the best and will also use #10 and #11 and possibly #12..can't use them all, still unsure if i use either one of #4 or #5

R10: 4, 9, maybe a little 3 and possibly use 8, I'm gonna be against 6

R11: two horse race for me 2 and 9, 9 has a legit chance to spoil this

R12: 1,3,4,6 are my contenders

R13: #4 at 30-1 ML is the one i want, love cut backs in extended sprints and i feel he's always wanted 7F to 1M, #5 is fav and i'll take shot against, scratched out of 3 dif races on Preakness day, maybe there something to that, maybe not, but at a short price i'll take a shot against him and guess there may have been a problem
 
Play2win said:
Capping these tough races is one thing, now how do you bet them? So many options, that's what makes this game so tough.

R1: #4 and #8 for me, start of pick 5

R2: ##7 is horse to beat and i have to use in pk5 tix but #8 interests me at a price, i thought he did more work than 1st and 2nd place finishers in his last race, i also think he isn't too far behind others that'll take money in here.

R3: I'll be using #5 and #8

R4: One of the speeds ran today (#3) so will be scratched, but still plenty of other early speeds 1,8,10 to set it up for closers like #6 and #9, those are the two i like. Ben's Cat may very well be one to beat but i'll take my chances against him going 6F

R5: A lot of early speed in here could set up for someone coming from off the pace, #2 interests me the most at 30-1 ML, his best races imo have been at 7F to 1M , troubled trip in last. In pk5's also using #10 and #12

R6: #5 the best and also using #2, will have a big win bet on #5, one of best bets of day

R7: #6 is a single for me

R8: #9 is one to beat and has to be used in multi race tix but what if her and #4 hook up early and set it up for someone else? Guess 1,3,5,9,10 are my contenders and #1 is my biggest price that i have to mess around w/, tough trip in last, shuffled and still only beaten 2.5 lengths, impressive winning in previous two races, in good form.

R9: I'm against fav #1 because of drawing inside post and pressure will be on with other speeds in here, I like #6 and #9 the best and will also use #10 and #11 and possibly #12..can't use them all, still unsure if i use either one of #4 or #5

R10: 4, 9, maybe a little 3 and possibly use 8, I'm gonna be against 6

R11: two horse race for me 2 and 9, 9 has a legit chance to spoil this

R12: 1,3,4,6 are my contenders

R13: #4 at 30-1 ML is the one i want, love cut backs in extended sprints and i feel he's always wanted 7F to 1M, #5 is fav and i'll take shot against, scratched out of 3 dif races on Preakness day, maybe there something to that, maybe not, but at a short price i'll take a shot against him and guess there may have been a problem
Click to expand...
More about R10: #4, like him best in here, last race was good prep for this shipping to U.S. and having tough trip, hemmed in on inside, now adds Lasix which could prove to be huge, last work was good and that was with Lasix.
 
Besides being against Palace Malice in the Met Mile, i'll also be against another Pletcher heavy fav, in R6: I'm against #8 My Miss Sophia, she's had great pace setups and now faces more early speed than in previous races plus 1 1/8 cutback to 1M may not help here either
 
Gandolf said:
The reason being that Social Inclusion looks like a horse that needs to be in the lead to be at his best, and its a tall order to run 1 1/2 miles on the lead. It's happened but its rare. If your leading you're probably going to fast to maintain for the full distance.

Throw in the fact that Social Inclusion is a horse that tends to get stressed pre-race (washed out, acts up heading to the gate) and you've got a horse that wants the lead but has already burned some of the energy he'll need to conserve to last the distance before the gate even opens.
Click to expand...

Social Inclusion faded pretty bad toward the end of the Preakness despite finishing near the top. He had nothing left down the stretch. He wouldn't be anywhere on my card tomorrow...
 
I played Commanding Curve in a number of matchup props in the Derby and I'll likely do the same for the Belmont.
 
Early runner-late runner-value plays for each race:


RC 1: 2-7-8
RC 2: 7-4-5
RC 3: 2-3-5
RC 4: 8-9-11
RC 5: 11-3-12
RC 6: 8-7-3
RC 7: 5-6-1
RC 8: 9-6-5
RC 9: 1-9-5
RC 10: 1-6-4
RC 11: 2-9-7
 
Great thread, thanks for sharing all the great info and BOL to everyone today.
 
Belmont Day Selections:

Race 1: 8-7 over 6-4-2

Race 2: 6-1-8-7

Race 3: 3-8-5-1

Race 4: 9-6 like the 5 for a price and will use the 8 underneath a little

Race 5: 5-6 over 11-7-12

Race 6: 8-5-2

Race 7: Not much value in this 3 horse 6-1-5

Race 8: 9-8-6-4

Race 9: Will spread a bit as against the 1 here at least for the top spot, 9-10-11-4-5-1

Race 10: 4-6-1-8
 
Once again, Thanks for all of the Winners....today and everyday my friend
GL down the stretch 'an_horse''an_horse''an_horse''an_horse'
 
If you have pps with Quirin points (brisnet) on them note that horses with 4 points and higher are now 0 for 36 after 6 races. Speed is getting crushed.

Only the princess is below 4 in race 7.
 
Close Hatches wins with a Quirin number of 5. So 6-8 are 0 for 24. Chrome is a 7 btw, as is Palace Malice.
 
P,
I don't know shit about racing wondering how come there aren't the same horses in this race then there was in the derby preakness?
are all 3 races the same distance?
 
Last edited:
just curious, say in race ten you have it listed 4-1-6-8 are you suggesting a superfecta or superfecta box? how are you going to play that?
 
Toronto_Mike said:
P,
I don't know shit about racing wondering how come there aren't the same horses in this race then there was in the derby preakness?
are all 3 races the same distance?
Click to expand...


If I remember right there is about a 40% distance difference b/t Derby and Belmont. Either way Belmont is significantly longer. What makes the triple crown so hard is the same thing that makes Phelps accomplishments so impressive.
 
deaznutz said:
just curious, say in race ten you have it listed 4-1-6-8 are you suggesting a superfecta or superfecta box? how are you going to play that?
Click to expand...


Sorry for any confusion, they are just my top picks for the race. I will try to post my plays for Race 10 in a minute or two here
 
Schrute said:
If I remember right there is about a 40% distance difference b/t Derby and Belmont. Either way Belmont is significantly longer. What makes the triple crown so hard is the same thing that makes Phelps accomplishments so impressive.
Click to expand...


Derby is 1 1/4Miles, Preakness 1 3/16Miles, Belmont 1 1/2 Miles
 
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-priority-secondary ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$1.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]TR[/TD]
[TD]6 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,4,5,8[/TD]
[TD]$12.00

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$5.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]EX[/TD]
[TD]BX,4,6[/TD]
[TD]$10.00[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-priority-secondary ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$5.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]EX[/TD]
[TD]BX,1,6[/TD]
[TD]$10.00[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-priority-secondary ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$2.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]EX[/TD]
[TD]BX,1,4,8[/TD]
[TD]$12.00[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]$0.50[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]TR[/TD]
[TD]1,4,8 / 6 / 1,4,5,8[/TD]
[TD]$4.50

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$0.10[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]SU[/TD]
[TD]6 / 1,8,9 / 1,4,5,8,9 / 1,4,5,8,9[/TD]
[TD]$3.60[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
[TABLE="class: ui-jqgrid-btable, width: 655"]
<tbody>[TR="class: ui-widget-content jqgrow ui-row-ltr ui-state-highlight ui-state-hover, bgcolor: #FDF5CE"]
[TD]Belmont[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$4.00[/TD]
[TD="class: multiLine"]EX[/TD]
[TD]8 / 1,4,5,6[/TD]
[TD]$16.00[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
That'd be sweet ProV.

Couple props for s&g:

Field over Chrome -115
Wicked over Tone -160
Curlin over Curve -105
 
Play thanks for your thoughts today greatly appreciated. I tailed Sweet Reason and that was just a fabulous piece of handicapping on your part.
 
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