ore/ksu discussion

They have only been held under this number once this year. Stanford and K State are not in the same stratosphere defensively.

I am taking the over for the game and Oregon TT over. I am curious as to why you like the Ore TT under so much. Appreciate any input.
 
Seems most still too high on Ducks, and too low on both K State and Klein. 3-6 L9 bowls for Ducks is not a coincidence imo. I love Snyder as a dog with time to prep, Ducks are fastest in country but one could argue K St more physical. Not trusting frosh QB and suspect D vs Klein, who still has to show the whole world he doesnt suck and is a winner. Some are knocking or questioning how K St defense will do vs Run, well they rank #17 in country vs Run and to put that into context: Tulsa is #16 and S Car is #18 vs Run. While Chip Kelly's distractions are not worth points imo, worth mentioning just because of motivation factor, K St with no distractions and alot to prove. Ducks prolly thought they were BCS National Championship bound for most of season and while K St of course wanted to be there, realistically this spot prolly fits em better and they prolly know that. I do agree K St can play fast or slow and Ore only fast, however i do think K St would be better suited to run the ball and go on long, time consuming drives to limit time Ducks have the ball on offense.

K St plus pts for me and i do think they can win outright.
 

<tbody>
[TD="class: TSN1b, width: 20%, colspan: 6"]Oregon Ducks[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Player[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Pos.[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 50%, align: center"]Details[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 30%, align: center"]Status[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 30%, align: center"]Injury[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Axel McQuaw [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] DL [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] will miss the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Kansas State [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Out [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] academics [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Nick Cody [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] T [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] will miss the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Kansas State [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Out [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] academics [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Isaac Dixon [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] S [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] will miss the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Kansas State [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Out [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] ankle [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Wade Keliikipi [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] DT [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] is questionable for the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Kansas State [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Questionable [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] leg [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]Avery Patterson[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]CB[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]11/11/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]will miss the remainder of the season[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]Out[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"]knee[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]Mana Greig[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]10/29/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]is out indefinitely[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]Out[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"]knee[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]Carson York[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]G[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]09/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]will miss the remainder of the season[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]Out[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"]knee[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]John Boyett[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]S[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]09/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]will miss the remainder of the season[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]Out[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"]knee[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Jared Ebert [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] DE [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] is questionable for the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Kansas State [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Questionable [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] knee [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]Keloni Kamalani[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]LB[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"]09/02/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]is out indefinitely[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"]Out[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"]shoulder[/TD]

</tbody>
 

<tbody>
[TD="class: TSN1b, width: 20%, colspan: 6"]Kansas State Wildcats[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Player[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Pos.[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 10%, align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 50%, align: center"]Details[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 30%, align: center"]Status[/TD]
[TD="class: TSN2, width: 30%, align: center"]Injury[/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Tre Walker [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] LB [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 10/30/2012 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] will miss the remainder of the season [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Out [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] knee [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Curry Sexton [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] WR [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] is probable for the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Oregon [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Probable [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] arm [/TD]

[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] Ty Zimmerman [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] S [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 10%, align: center"] 01/03/2013 [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] is probable for the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday against Oregon [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 50%, align: center"] Probable [/TD]
[TD="class: TSN5, width: 30%, align: center"] leg [/TD]

</tbody>
 
K-State is tops nationally in turnover margin (1.75), and three different players (Allen Chapman, Nigel Malone, Ty Zimmerman) have notched 5 interceptions. In all, the unit has come up with 31 takeaways and as many sacks. Meshak Williams (Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year) and Adam Davis have 17 sacks between them, and Arthur Brown has a team-high 91 total stops to go along with a pair of picks and a fumble recovery on his way to being named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.
 
Nick Cody is the only significant/recent injury development for UO, everyone else has either been missing a while or isn't that significant.
 
Fuck Play - if I read any more of those posts, I'm gonna get talked into taking two units at +7.5....

Silk - if the Cats traveled as well as many on here seem to think those home/away splits might come back to haunt you.
 
This is why K St needs to go on long drives that use clock:

LIGHTNING STRIKES
Of Oregon's 80 drives resulting in touchdowns this season, 44 have lasted less than two minutes and 22 have taken 60 seconds or less.
 
I have 2 friends who flew down to Arizona yesterday morning who are Duck alumni. They said they're outnumbered in fans by a lot. Take it for whatever its worth. the game isn't played in the stands. I've already stated I'm playing Ducks team total under. Something tells me they're going to pull a Florida. They didn't make the Natioanl Championship, conference championship, and the Rosé Bowl. They missed on everything, which leads me to think this Fiesta Bowl is a letdown. Mix in the fact that their head coach is looking at 1 of at least 4 opportunities in the NFL, and you have enough to at least think they might not show up ready.
 
It definitely is pretty easy to draw a lot of similarities between this game and the one that got played last night. Motivation in question for the fave, dog has a player that can take over a game under center, big crowd supporting the dog...... Hmmmm
 
K-state has the most underrated fan base in the nation. Can't wait to see all the emaw nation on tv tonight
 
Home/away isn't so much about crowd lol it's about routine & familiarity. A team showing up in a place that's not home 2days before a requires adjusting. It's 1 major reason teams have issues even at small Podunk away stadiums. Some teams are built with a "we come to your town & kick your ass mentality" some arent
 
Still surprised the line opened as high as it did remembering the Ducks opened at 6.5 in last season's Rose Bowl before closing at 4. KSU are a better team now than the Badgers were back then. Spoke to a few friends that share a similar interest to mine and they were expecting a more competitive spread and were all over KSU. That being said the motivational factors favor the Cats and they excel in the underdog role.
 
I totally disagree there Silk. I think it is every bit as much about crowd as it is routine and familiarity. Both play into it heavily. The more I look at this game, the more I can't wait to watch it. Should be the best bowl game of the season
 
Don't know who K State beat to think they were better than Russel Wilson's badgers. Badgers would have went undefeated in b12. K State hasn't beat anyone and Klien blows.
 
i have opinions on who played tougher road schedule, but dont want to get caught guessing on something that is my only point w/ home/road. I do agree about routine to a degree though.

Ore @ Wash St, @ Arz St, @ Usc, @ Cal and @ Ore St

K St @ Okla, @ Iowa St, @ W Va, @ Tcu and @ Baylor
 
and Now, ALL these teams suck?


[TABLE="class: tablehead"]
<tbody>[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2623"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 1[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2390"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 8[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]2-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-249"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 15[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]3-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-201"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 22[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]4-0 (1-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2305"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 6[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]5-0 (2-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-66"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 13[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]6-0 (3-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-277"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 20[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]7-0 (4-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2641"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 27[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]8-0 (5-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-197"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 3[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]9-0 (6-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2628"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 10[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]10-0 (7-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-239"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 17[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]10-1 (7-1)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-251"]
[TD]Sat, Dec 1[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]11-1 (8-1)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Since Bill Snyder returned to Kansas State in 2009, the Wildcats are 12-12 straight-up as underdogs and 19-5 against the spread...
 
Inspekdah said:
Don't know who K State beat to think they were better than Russel Wilson's badgers. Badgers would have went undefeated in b12. K State hasn't beat anyone and Klien blows.
Click to expand...


You misspelling his name makes you look even more ignorant if that's possible. KSU went 8-1 against bowl eligible teams. Won at OU. Blew out Okie State. They may not cover tonight but you are delusional or trying to be attention whore not sure which.:line:
 
Pretty sure KSt's wins look better than Ducks.

I'm out guys - let's get this one underway already.
 
Anyone discounting that Chip Kelly interviewing is a distraction is not putting enough stock into the motivation angle of the Ducks (or lack there of). Add to it that their season fell short of expectations and it paints a picture of a team that may not be prepared like they normally are. I know it is scary taking an under in an Oregon game, but Snyder will have his team ready for the Ducks rushing attack. If the Ducks get 2 or more of those quick strike TD's, I'm probably in trouble with the under. But, I don't see that happening. Good luck everyone!
 
The Ducks outscored opponents, 196-43, in the first quarter and 373-105 in the first half this season...
 
FYI...Charlottesports hasnt released his pick yet but the drones are patiently waiting...lol

"Man he doesn't release his pick until within an hour of the game. Patience people! "
 
TheGarfather said:
Fair or not, for years, KSU was known nationally as a fan base that didn't travel.
Click to expand...

You are absolutely incorrect on that one. Yes way back in the days when we were horrible we didn't travel - who would? But since the 1990's KSU has one of the best traveling fanbases of any team.period.
 
Trust me, Kstate travels well. Have several friends in AZ. Going with the Cats tonight.
 
Hey guys! Long time no talk. Hope all is well with everyone.

Looking to play tonight's game and decided to visit the site to look for angles for/against my initial lean to make an educated bet ... initial lean was KSt +9.

Aside from a total meltdown like last night's game (btw, I had Louisville unposted), we can only cap the game according to plan. Looking at the stats, records, etc ... I don't want to restate what's already been stated for either team. Just want to add a few more angles for folks to consider ...

Distraction

1. Don't put much stock on Chip Kelly going to the NFL being a distraction. Last year, he was heavily interviewed a job with the TB Bucs and they won the bowl again Wisconsin.

2. Think I read somewhere that there are far more KSt fans than there are Oregon fans. Known fact that Oregon don't travel well yet despite not traveling well, Oregon has a 13-2 road record under Chip Kelly.

Preparation

Folks mention that KSt has a lot of time to prepare to stop and slow Oregon's offense. They also have the Stanford game to use as data to help with preparation. Keep in mind, Oregon has the same amount of time to prepare and they have the Baylor game to use to exploit KSt's rush defense. The difference here is that I don't think KSt's defensive talent is equal to Stanford's defensive talent, so they can mimic but are they even capable to execute? Meanwhile, Oregon's rush is better than Baylor's rush, so not only can they mimic the plan, they are capable of exectuing the plan.

My lean is now swaying towards the ducks -7 (buying the point) as I see value with that number. Just some more food for thought.
 
I before E is rare in the Englisg language. It's by design. This guy doesn't deserve the love affair people have with him. Thank you Baylor for saving this NCAA season. And yes, I've never heard of K State traveling well either. Kudos to them for getting up for this game (the fans).
 
Play2win said:
hate reading into line movement, but imo number dropped to encourage Ore $
Click to expand...

One could say the line moved last night to +14.5 to encourage Ville $. That was key though because it crossed a 'solid' number i.e 14. This movement is between the 'solid' numbers of 7 and 10, so not quite as significant. They want a massive stream of Duck action, they go to 6.5 and it's on...
 
nbafan88 said:
i dont think a line drop from 9 to 7.5 means anything tbh
Click to expand...
yeah, like i said...hate reading into it, just saying cant see books exposing themselves to people buying down to a TD if Ore is that superior to K St, as some think.
 
emkee said:
One could say the line moved last night to +14.5 to encourage Ville $. That was key though because it crossed a 'solid' number i.e 14. This movement is between the 'solid' numbers of 7 and 10, so not quite as significant. They want a massive stream of Duck action, they go to 6.5 and it's on...
Click to expand...
sharper books were on 14, that did say alot to me.
 
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