"One day at a time" team analysis: Day 26 - LSU

[lindetrain]

Overview:

If you asked college football fans to name a team they believe underachieved in 2006, LSU would surely qualify in the minds of many. Despite having one of the nation's best defenses and talent all over the field, the Tigers managed to lose 2 games and had to settle for a waxing of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. They return 14 starters from that squad, and are considered a national title contender once again.

Matt Flynn takes over at QB in place of eventual #1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell, who was a 1st team All-SEC performer in 2006. Flynn has only 1 start in 3 years, albeit an impressive one, as he led the team to a blowout victory in the Peach Bowl back in 2005. The top 4 rushers return, led by FB Jacob Hester and RB Keiland Williams, who combined for over 800 yards and 11 TDs. The top 2 WRs are gone in Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, but Early Doucet is back after receiving for 772 yards and 8 TDs. 3 starters are back on the OL, along with 2nd team All-SEC TE Richard Dickson.

3 starters return on the DL, a group that is widely considered one of the nation's best. Glenn Dorsey was a 1st team All-American at DT in 2006, recording 64 tackles and 3 sacks; DE Tyson Jackson received 2nd team All-SEC honors after recording 37 tackles and 8.5 sacks. Everyone is back at LB, led by 2nd team All-SEC performer Ali Highsmith, who had 63 tackles and 3 sacks. Luke Sanders and Darry Beckwith combined for 100 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Both CBs are back in Jonathan Zenon and Chevis Jackson; Zenon had 27 tackles and 4 INTs, and Jackson had 46 tackles and 2 INTs. SS Craig Steltz recorded 42 tackles and 4 INTs despite only 3 starts.

My Take:

It's clear this team is loaded everywhere, and is the cream of the crop when it comes to the SEC. But will they take care of business and earn a spot in the national championship? They had the talent to play in the big game last year, but found a way to not even make it to the SEC championship game. If they are going to be top dog, they can't let up, as everyone will be gunning for them. The schedule is very favorable, with their toughest road game at Alabama. They catch Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and Florida at home.

On offense, they are stocked with talent and shouldn't suffer much of a dropoff despite losing some of their top weapons. The running game should be just fine, as everyone is back and their is plenty of experience there. The only questions are in the passing game, where Flynn is new at QB and only 1 WR has seen extensive playing time. If Flynn is able to play as well as he did in the Peach Bowl all the time, this offense will be potent - but there are no guarantees yet. Once he settles in and they find some threats other than Doucet at WR, this offense will be set. They do take a pretty big hit with the loss of OC Jimbo Fisher.

On defense, they will be top-notch. They are stacked at every level, and their DL will control the LOS in just about every game they play - they will more than likely be even better than they were last year. The only area that can be considered a question mark is at safety, where they must replace superstar LaRon Landry and bring in 2 new starters. I don't know how you're going to beat this group and they will be just fine, and will more than likely be the reason LSU is so tough to beat.

Overall, I'm very impressed with this group - but coaching is a concern of mine. Miles underachieved last year and could very well do so again this year, and lost a great coordinator in Fisher. It's hard to call them a great bet ATS with him on the sidelines, and the fact that they are expected to be so dominant won't help matters. The conference's top 4 teams in 2006 - Florida, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn - all had losing records ATS. With them being decent-sized favorites in just about every game they will play (I see Alabama being the only game where they could be less than 5-point favorites), they could have a tough time covering games. Unless this team just turns out to be absolutely dominant and exceeds their extremely high expectations, something that is unlikely with Miles and a new QB, they won't be on my list of teams to play.

 

[B.A.R.]

Linde...tyou think like me. This team is all Miles. I really despise the guy and if he ends up coaching here next year I dunno what I will do. This team coulda, shoulda, woulda last year. Pretty sick that they lost games that they really conrolled. Coaching errors and the small things on the field.

 

[RetroVK]

It will be interesting to see how lsu comes out in the first game of the year vs miss state. I played miss st plus 35 last year at lsu and was lucky to lose by only 31 as lsu had it put away early and then the game was delayed (hurricane maybe?).

I think there are some major factors that point to miss state keeping this game within three tds ( i really havent done my power rankings yet so I don't want to commit to most games yet -- locking in GT early). some of those factors:

1. The obvious reason is that lsu has an obvious look ahead to virginia tech in week 2. This game has been all the hype in the off season and one has to figure that lsu will spend more time in august preparing for beamer and company than they will for the bulldogs. Miss state has tulane the following week and will have a packed house for a night game against lsu.

2. What may be even more helpful is that it is a week 1 look ahead which i have always loved as a bettor. They have more incentive to be vanilla with the week 2 opponent only having last years film to look at and prepare.

3. LSU's strengths/weaknessessort of help miss state. LSU's dominant strengths this year are clearly in the trenches at DL and OL. We all know these tend to be the most important positions in football games and it si the primary reason that lsu is a preseason favorite to play in the nat title game. But I think the new strength of the offensive line , the loss of russell at qb, and the loss of quality receivers ( save doucet) in addition to the want to be vanilla and not show va tech much ... all add up to a lot of running plays vs miss state. While lsu should be able to score this way against a depleted bulldog DL, it should make for some longer drives. keep in mind that lsu averaged under 3 yards a carry and barely got over 100 yards against miss state last year at lsu. They scored on a few monster pass plays with russells arm and granted played back ups in the second half.
I also think that the strength of the lsu defensive line will aid the tigers in playing more vanilla against miss state. They should be looking to drop linebackers into coverage to aid their weakest link on defense the secondary. Miss state has a decent offensive line ( not great by any means but certainly good by miss st standards ) and may be able to pick up some yards on the ground if lsu plays a softer style defense. With henig throwing to good receivers, It makes it even more likely that lsu employs this strategy.

4. miss state is better than you think. lets look at their final five games last year. a 3 point loss and cover at georgia , a 3 point loss and no cover at home to a decnt kentucky team , a cover in an outright win at alabama , 14 point loss and cover vs arkansas , and a 3 point loss and push at mississippi. Very competitive down the stretch and they return 14/15 starters this year.

5. the line will likely ahve value. the public always thinks the number two preseason team is great .. way way better than they actually are and the public never gives homefield enough credit , nor homefield night games enough credit. LSU vs Miss state .... easy money they think. and while lsu should win, i dont think they have the incentive to lay the lumber and if they do they have all the incentive in the world to rest starters late. last year vs the lsu second team defense the miss state offense moved it quite effectively and they got better as the season wore on and return nine starters. i wont be suprised if this game opens over four td based on what linesmakers believe will get them even action. if you can lay over 28 in a sec night road game than be my guest.

i am a bit concerned that miss state hasnt kept lsu within 30 points since '02.
2006 lost by 31 at lsu
2005 lost by 30 at starkville
2004 lost by 51 at lsu
2003 lost by 35 at starkville

 

[TroyStacks]

i disagree with the coaching of les miles. he made one big mistake his first year and no one lets up on him. how about how dumb of a qb russell was. yeahj he was great but h ewasn't the smartest guy on the field thats for sure. lets take a look at some of the other games before we throw him under the bus.

 

[RetroVK]

Not sure if miles is just pandering to his fan base and boosters but he is talking some serious shit to USC and seems extremely confident in the teamhe is fielding this year. I am not hooked on him yet but don't think he's the worst either. tough shoes to fill when he replaced saban and maybe he can get out from under that shadow when they play bama later in the year.

still. with a decent line , the number one player taken in nfl draft at qb , high quality receivers and a deep backfield you have to give miles some blame when they manage just 3 points at auburn and just 10 at florida. come on.

 

[TroyStacks]

russel threw key picks in that game and also those were top defenses no blame to go anywhere there just tough games

 

[RetroVK]

ok , you are right about florida .... no one scored more than 16 on them at their house, so the 10 isn't that bad (though again.. the offensive talent was staggering last year). but 3 at auburn ?

wazzu scored 14 there ( forget what bowl they played in )
mighty buffalo score 7 (forget what bowl they played in )
arkansas 27
florida 17
tulane scored 13 ( forget what bowl they played in )
georgia scored 37
and ark state got skunked

i hear what you are saying about russell and his untimely int's but wow. i am raider fan so i cant wait to see him hitting nfl linebackers between the numbers. i love this lsu team and i dont think miles is awful (as i said above) .. all i am saying is he has to take some of the blame for the poor performances in big games offensively given the talent level. in the big games of 2005 he lost by 3 to tenn at lsu, lost 3 in ot at home to auburn , won by 4 at home to florida , lost by 3 in ot at bama and lost by 20 to georgia in sec championship. he needs to improve against the better competionion in the sec before folks get off his back. last year with arguably the best team in the conference, miles again failed to produce in the big games.
lost by 4 at auburn
lost by 13 at florida
won by 4 at tenn
won by 5 at arkansas

since miles took over as head coach he has been a dog in conference only twice and lost both games. despite being a dog only twice in conference play, lsu failed tow in the sec in either year. granted its the miost difficult conference to win , but he has underachieved. say what you want about russell but he is a better player than leak .. or cox. also i see sec coaches like this

saban>miles
richt>miles
tuberville>miles
meyer>miles
nutt>miles
spurrier>miles
johnson>miles
oregeron>miles

miles>brooks
miles>fulmer
miles>croom
that makes him 9th best coach in his own league.
would be an interesting debate as to who the best coach is in this conf.

i would lean toward nutt , richt or orgeron. how would you rank them troy ?

 

[E.T.G.]

coaches...


richt, spurrier-meyer, tuberville imo are the top 4

 

[reNew Orleans]

as an lsu football fan I think he is an awful coach. "Les is More" my ass.

 

[TroyStacks]

it doesn't matter if hes better than the mentioned the fact is he is recruiting beter than all of them and still winning. i have talked to lsu fans from new orleans born and raised and they think hes doing a great job.

 

[BeASaint]

I live in Baton Rouge and am in no way an LSU fan, but being as it is the biggest game in town and I love CFB, I follow the Tigers pretty closely.

I've been saying for the past two seasons that Russell wasn't as good as everyone made him out to be and I truly believe that Flynn will turn out to be a better QB once all is said and done. Russell simply committed too many silly errors to be considered a great college quarterback. He brought them back to win last season at Tennessee, but he also spotted the Volunteers an easy pick 6 to start the second half. His turnover at the goal line against UF pretty much turned the tide in what was a very close game at that point (23-10 doesn't do justice to how badly Florida ended up beating them).

But, the blame on russell can only go so far as to why LSU has underachieved the past two seasons. They mop up pretty easily against inferior competition, but always seem to come up short against a quality team. A lot of this has to do with how unimaginative Miles is as a head coach and play caller....the odds of Miles giving it to Hester up the middle on 3rd and short are about 3-1 in favor of.

1. Home opener in 2005, led 21-0 at halftime against Tennesse and lost
2. At home against Auburn in 2005 and needed Auburn PK John Vaughn to miss 4 of 5 FG to win 20-17 in OT
3. Dominated the 2006 game @ Auburn (309 yds - 182 yds) and managed only 3 points (on a 42 yd FG at the 1st half gun)
4. In the biggest regular season game of the year for LSU, they fumbled on the Florida 1-yard line, had a touchdown pass called back by penalty, had a punt blocked and threw two interceptions inside Gators territory. This all led directly to 16 florida points in a 23-10 loss.
5. Needed a last second comeback in regulation and overtime to beat Ole Miss at home in 2006

Now, four of the five examples came against quality competition and should end up as close games. But, the manner in which they win or lose these games demonstrates a clear pattern of his team's inability to play up to their potential when the situation demands it. Sure, they kick the shit out of Mississippi State, Tulane and Louisiana-Lafayette, but they sure don't look like they know how to ratchet up the intensity when the big boys come to town. To me, that is a direct reflection on the coaching leadership.

 

[BeASaint]

i see sec coaches like this

saban>miles
richt>miles
tuberville>miles
meyer>miles
nutt>miles
spurrier>miles
johnson>miles
oregeron>miles

miles>brooks
miles>fulmer
miles>croom
that makes him 9th best coach in his own league.
would be an interesting debate as to who the best coach is in this conf.

i would lean toward nutt , richt or orgeron. how would you rank them troy ?

I would put them in this order:

1. Meyer
2. Richt
3. Saban
4. Tuberville
5. Spurrier
6. Nutt
7. Miles
8. Johnson
9. Orgeron
10. Fulmer
11. Brooks
12. Croom

But, thank god he is an excellent recruiter, because he could not beat the coaches ahead of him on that list (except maybe Nutt) without having far superior athletes at his disposal.

 

[RetroVK]

I mean for the coach list to be about actually coaching, not recruiting (especially since some programs recruit for themselves). Hell, if you include recruiting , mac brown becomes a good coach. so here is my exact ranking of the sec coaches as i see it.

1. orgeron
2. richt
3. nutt
4. spurrier
5. saban
6. meyer
7. tuberville
8. johnson
9. miles
10. brooks
11. croom
12. fulmer

i guess when you look at this list, you see how good the coaching is in this league.

 

[TroyStacks]

saban is the best hands down IMO and nutt is towards the bottom not impressed. but anyways this chat is going nowhere we don't win money by debating coaches no offense guys. lets discuss the lines and what we see in the team as a whole.

 

[Blue_Chip]

i know flynn has one start for the tigers (albeit a 40-3 spanking of miami in the peach bowl). everyone seems to forget that every spring it was neck-and-neck for the starting qb role between flynn and russell. now, i will be the first to admit performance in practice does not translate directly onto performance on the field, but i do not see a terrible transition for lsu at qb this year (add to it that flynn can scramble something russell's 260lb body could not).

lsu has one of the speediest receiving corps in the nation (speed does not necessarily equal good). doucet was the #1 recruit in the nation a couple yrs back, and lafell saw a good bit of time toward the end of last season. add ricky dixon at wr and an emerging te in dickson (somethin lsu has lacked since i can remember) and flynn has plenty of weapons to throw to.

fisher is gone as oc but crowton should be a pleasant surprise. he brings high-octane offensive schemes from oregon. with flynn's mobility, watch the flynn/keiland option become a staple in the offense this season.

defense: strong, solid, dominant, shutdown. take you pick at an adjective to describe the lsu defense this year. the l.o.s. will be controlled by lsu's d-line in every game this season. someone mentioned it above and he is correct, with jackson and dorsey providing qb's with all the pressure that can handle, mistakes will be made by opposing qb's and rushing will be hard to come by. bottom line: the d-line will allow highsmith, beckwith and sanders to drop back into coverage, chevis and zenon are shutdown corners and will be put in man coverage often this season, meaning the safeties (steltz and laundry's replacement) will blitz (pellini loves blitzing).

the jury is still out on les miles. i am undecided on him. recently, he has run his mouth too much. his coaching abilities can surely be questioned; ask anyone that watched lsu blow a 21-pt lead in the game after katrina versus tennessee because we "wanted to sit on the lead" or someone that watched reicht outcoach miles in the sec championship two years ago. YET, he has done a great job keeping lsu at the forefront of recruiting classes. is miles worth it? ....

that's a brief rundown from me before i really start studying sec football. if you cannot tell i am an lsu grad so yes i am biased but i can also recognize when lsu has a disadvantage or is playing horribly somewhere. once the season gets closer, i will be on the forum to answer questions about lsu football. i become obsessed once the season is upon me, but i do not bet on lsu because my views are skewed. i would like to help others out though by answering any questions... Gl to everyone