Odds To Win SB! Place your thoughts here!

[Vapster]

Hello All! Lines vary from book to book so make sure to shop around! Can we see more magic from the eagles at the longest odds on the board? Or saints win easy? Are Pats odds to low or a gift to Tom Brady fans?! Would love to hear what everyone is thinking. GL to all:shake:

Saints +250
Rams +450
KC +450
Pats +600
Bears +900
Ravens +1400
Charge +1600
Dallas +2500
Texans +2500
Colts +2500
Seattle +2800
Eagles +3300

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Easy Breesy

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Surprised Charge are that low

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Colts will prob get a lot of bets but prove to be a waste of money

 

[aplous]

I would take shots with the best defenses left....Bears +900 and Ravens +1400. Both of those teams could go on the road and win 20-17 games over higher seeds.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Experienced qb is a must imo

 

[Vapster]

I admit. Im one of those that wants to wager on The Colts...

 

[Vapster]

Saints Rams And Chiefs I'm not that high on any of them. Think they shot their load beginning of the season and are kinda limping to the finish line...

 

[GWarner27]

pats won't win it all, but the bye gets them at least a round further than they should go and they've owned HOU. The others would be a bigger concern, but honestly they could lose to anybody.

Rams have been leaking oil for a month, NO hasn't looked much better and KC's defense is a massive problem. The odds seem stacked against teams playing this weekend due to all the abuse on the body, but I have a hard time saying none of these teams have a shot.

I didn't realize how much i like this BAL team, but i think they can beat either team who's on a bye (probably should have won @KC) and keep it rolling from there

 

[GWarner27]

CHI i kinda dismiss cuz of Trubisky at QB, but they are a very similar team to BAL with the great defense and mobile QB. Really tough first game despite being the biggest favorite, but if they can get through the Messiah then i'd like them @LAR with a million fans then they could take down NO in the dome or would have a home game

I really like the playoffs this year as the teams with byes do not seem as scary as they normally are

 

[Vapster]

I agree GW. If all 4 teams with a bye were to not make the SB, it wouldn't be a shock...

 

[GWarner27]

better odds on BAL with a ML parlay i'd think

guessing, but

-2.5 vs LAC (-135)
+4 @KC (+179)
+3.5 @NE (+167)
+3 vs NFC (+140)

Vegasinsider has this 30/1

 

[GWarner27]

better odds on BAL with a ML parlay i'd think

guessing, but

-2.5 vs LAC (-135)
+4 @KC (+179)
+3.5 @NE (+167)
+3 vs NFC (+140)

Vegasinsider has this 30/1

best case scenario:
-2.5 vs LAC (-135)
+3.5 NE (+167)
-3 vs IND (-160)
-2 vs NFC (-128)

12.5/1

 

[Vapster]

Bold Comment By The Announcer NBA MIN @ BOS Tonight...(Wed) "The winner of the IND vs TEX game is going to the SB!"

 

[raems]

Every team in the Super Bowl since the 2013 Ravens has gotten there without having to win a single road game. Small sample size, but a meaningful one given the new CBA was negotiated in 2011.

This suggests KC is being severely undervalued.

 

[survive&advance]

Every team in the Super Bowl since the 2013 Ravens has gotten there without having to win a single road game. Small sample size, but a meaningful one given the new CBA was negotiated in 2011.

This suggests KC is being severely undervalued.

Yep, think there’s value on KC as well even though they have some red flags. Indy/houston result could be very critical imo

 

[GWarner27]

Every team in the Super Bowl since the 2013 Ravens has gotten there without having to win a single road game. Small sample size, but a meaningful one given the new CBA was negotiated in 2011.

This suggests KC is being severely undervalued.

lowest odds in the AFC is undervalued?

 

[raems]

lowest odds in the AFC is undervalued?

Yes, their offense at home means somebody has to come in and put up ~36+ to win with the exception of Baltimore since they can play keepaway. Even so, I don’t see how New Orleans has 230 cents lower odds or whatever it is now when they have a worse offense than KC and aren’t a defensive juggernaut themselves.

 

[raems]

I still have LAC making the super bowl but it’s matchup based - expect them to wind up having to play at NE if thy do get past Baltimore.

 

[survive&advance]

lowest odds in the AFC is undervalued?

To a degree I think so. +450 implies an 18% chance of winning it all. Some models, such as this one, have KC around 25%

 

[Vapster]

To a degree I think so. +450 implies an 18% chance of winning it all. Some models, such as this one, have KC around 25%

So from what you posted, that site says it's a NOS vs KCC SB... Interesting... Thanks for posting s&a!

 

[GWarner27]

genuine question: are these models good?

 

[GWarner27]

I still have LAC making the super bowl but it’s matchup based - expect them to wind up having to play at NE if thy do get past Baltimore.

sounds like you like IND and i agree with that.

I do think the NO defense is miles ahead of KC and while that may not explain the shorter odds entirely, i think that's a huge reason.

Others:
the dome being a big deal for NO
KC struggling at home in the playoffs in the past
Sportsbook Liability

 

[RetroVK]

five thirty eight has saints at 21% to win super bowl (given their track record it doesn't mean much). Either the books or fivethirtyeight are way off.

He always says it is the market that is off and then always gets proven wrong.

Bears over Eagles
Texans over Colts
Cowboys over Seahawks
Chargers over Ravens

Texans over Pats
Chargers over Chiefs
Rams over Bears
Saints over Cowboys

Chargers over Texans
Rams over Saints

All Los Angeles Super Bowl
Chargers over Rams

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I mean it took the refs to keep Jax from beating New England last year so not sure what that had to do with home field

 

[GWarner27]

I mean it took the refs to keep Jax from beating New England last year so not sure what that had to do with home field

Refs or Hackett being fired a year too late

 

[2daBank]

I would take shots with the best defenses left....Bears +900 and Ravens +1400. Both of those teams could go on the road and win 20-17 games over higher seeds.

Exactly my thoughts on the 2 I would take at those prices. Think as least one of them ends up in respective conf championship game, if not both. Actually like whoever wins the chargers/balty game. I think chargers can play w anyone but ravens the worst matchup for them in the afc imo.

 

[2daBank]

I still have LAC making the super bowl but it’s matchup based - expect them to wind up having to play at NE if thy do get past Baltimore.

Just think this the worst possible matchup for chargers right out the gates. If they can get by balty i love their chances. I don’t really like them against ravens tho.