October 28th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Last Week: 9-5-1 +8.49 units
Overall: 84-62-5 +40.31 units(updated)

5-0 +6.88 CURRENT WEEK

Pretty damn good wek last week. If I hadn't been boneheaded and added 4 plays on Saturday during the day I would have three less losses. Add in fact I lost a unit on NMSU because I played it too early. Overall feel pretty good about things. If I stayed with my originals we are talking about a 8-1 week.

Its been a weird year. Some of these boards the past month I have hated have treated me the best.

Its a new week and its time to get down to business. I have a few so far and some I may hedge off due to injuries/other situations.


Michigan vs Northwestern

This line has been hit down from Pinny's original quite a bit since opening. I honestly am shocked that we have over 30 here. Michigan is getting a lot of respect, and deservedly so at this point.

What is Northwesterns state of mind after last weeks collapse? Its probaly not the greatest. That being said they know they are not gonna win up in Ace Duece so this isn't really a letdown spot.

I want you to remember leading up to the Notre Dame-Michigan contest. Hunt and myself preached that Carr, DeBord and English had kept a quiet hand in the first two games. They were going to unleash more to a unprepared Notre Dame squad. Sure enough, they did that to a tee. Michigan is going to treat these next three games as exhibitions really. They will want the game to be lopsided but will not be pulling out all the stops to accomplish that.

Do not let BCS implications fool you here. Uncle Lloyd WOULD NEVER run up a score to stay in position for a National Championship. Michigan's goal, even in the advent of the BSC, has been to win the Big 10 and go to the Rose Bowl. This year obviously they could and will do better than that. That is not Coach Carrs style is all I want to say. He is not a Spurrier, Bowden or Paterno.

Discussed previous UM games with RJ this afternnon and we came to many conclusions. Everything favors Northwestern ATS here. Michigan hasn't layed this many to an opponenet since 2003 when they layed 33 to the Hoosiers. Michigan won that game 33-17. This season they let Vandy and CMU get some points. I think NW can do the same.

One TD is most likely all we need from Northwestern. I do not see Michigan scoring over 40 points here. Granted the NW defense is mush, but UM will be so vanilla its scary. I expect Hart's workload to be way down for the next few weeks as well.

Michigan 35-7

Northwestern +33.5 +101 1 unit
Northwestern +33.5 -101 2 units

I think this number is well worth it. I know a few others have even better numbers. Good work by them indeed.
 
Last edited:
BAR--It gets even better.

After our discussion, I found this out:

In the last 7 years (1999 season through 2006 season), Northwestern has only lost by more than 35 on 3 occasions--In 2002 when they finished 3-8 they lost to Penn State and Iowa; in 2001 when they finished 4-7 they lost to Iowa.

Those are the only times.

I'm not as bold as you with the triple, but I'm playing 5 units on this one at +35 instead of my usual 2.

Extremely solid play IMO.
 
This is on my radar looks solid. Have yet to pull the trigger, and it may cost me, but gonna see how the line moves mid-week.
 
Houston vs Central Florida

I'll go the SMODOD route and admit I have been near dead on Houston Cougar games this season.

-We had Rice as a double digit dog in game one and covered easily.

-We came back and pounded UH in week 2 against Tulane and cashed easily.

-Week 4 featured a huge game at Home for Houston against a big conference foe in Okie St and we played UH heavy and they won easily ATS.

-Week 5 at Miami was the one slip-up so far this season on/against Houston

-Week 6 ULL came to town and we hit them as a double digit underdog. Pussied out on not putting at least a few bucks on ML. ULL SU win.

-Week 7 took off at So Piss. A few conflicting things warranted staying off this game.

-Last week we made the play ON Houston agaist Utep. They covered the 6 point spread easily.


Now Central Florida comes to town. UCF won 31-29 last year down in Florida. UCF averaged over 5 yards per carry in that game. They also passed for 300+. Houston had 26 run attempts for 24 yards. Kolb too a lot more attempts than Moffett to gain 18 less yards.

Obviously UCF is much shittier this go around. That being said this is too many points and I think that UCF may have a chance in second half. Houston pulls away late...

Houston 30-18

Central Florida +18 +100 2 units
 
TroyStacks said:
too many people are checking out our threads we need to password bock this muthafucka for memeber only
Click to expand...

Troy,

I have been thinking about that a lot today. I would love for the guests to sign up and give their own opinions. Personally, its kind of a turn off to me when you have to register to view certain things. I understand many are shy and feel awkward posting their thoughts when we have some of the best cappers in the country residing here.

Its always up for debate though and I will discuss this with the CTG Team.
 
abcs--SMODOD said:
Interesting that the public is on nw though.. pretty big %'s
Click to expand...

I personally like to let those numbers shake out for a few days. The 'smarter' public have played their plays already. The 'joe' public plays later in week and many times with locals.

Just my 2 cents.
 
smo1a said:
This is on my radar looks solid. Have yet to pull the trigger, and it may cost me, but gonna see how the line moves mid-week.
Click to expand...

October has become a time for waiting on some lines. We all have had our shares of great early lines and the ole " fuck I played it too early!"...lol

I think the public will bring this back up a little later in week but also think some smart money evens that out.
 
bar i was on the fence with ucf now i am sold i'm on them....


i think ctg needs to strongly consider it. not to sound critical or anything but people like huntdog,abcs,rj,horn,mistaflava, yourself and me(a few others as well) put in time each week early starting on sunday after nfl kicks off discussing picks and then everyone else gets the benfits as well. and not to think too highly of this group of great cappers and guys but i really think a lot check in on monday and start pounding out early lines and they affect the line movements as well. anyways just a thought there can't complain here really at all its great!
 
rjurewitz said:
BAR--It gets even better.

After our discussion, I found this out:

In the last 7 years (1999 season through 2006 season), Northwestern has only lost by more than 35 on 3 occasions--In 2002 when they finished 3-8 they lost to Penn State and Iowa; in 2001 when they finished 4-7 they lost to Iowa.

Those are the only times.

I'm not as bold as you with the triple, but I'm playing 5 units on this one at +35 instead of my usual 2.

Extremely solid play IMO.
Click to expand...


Excellent information RJ. Only helps to support our case
 
TroyStacks said:
bar i was on the fence with ucf now i am sold i'm on them....


i think ctg needs to strongly consider it. not to sound critical or anything but people like huntdog,abcs,rj,horn,mistaflava, yourself and me(a few others as well) put in time each week early starting on sunday after nfl kicks off discussing picks and then everyone else gets the benfits as well. and not to think too highly of this group of great cappers and guys but i really think a lot check in on monday and start pounding out early lines and they affect the line movements as well. anyways just a thought there can't complain here really at all its great!
Click to expand...

I really cannot dismiss your points. I will make this a topic of convo soon.
 
This probably belongs in GD or something at this point, but as much as I think it would be cool to have no guests reading our stuff, are we really vain enough to believe that people come on this board and then tail us enough to shift the lines? Maybe, I guess...But if you've already gotten yours, what do you really care? I think it all depends on whether you guys want more members or not...I was a guest here for a few weeks, then realized that it was worth signing up for, as opposed to all the other sports gambling sites. If I had to register originally, I wouldn't have bothered.

Just food for thought...

Love NW, got it at 35...a little too popular on this board, but even if its a loser its a good play, IMO.
 
good point but if you look each saturday morning before kickoff this forum has grown from 79 or so viewers to the highest i have seen yet this past week at 458 i want to say so people are watching.... not like we're asking for a fee now that would be rediculous hahaha
 
Seabass said:
are we really vain enough to believe that people come on this board and then tail us enough to shift the lines?
Click to expand...

My breathing influences the tides, motherfucka.
 
TroyStacks said:
good point but if you look each saturday morning before kickoff this forum has grown from 79 or so viewers to the highest i have seen yet this past week at 458 i want to say so people are watching.... not like we're asking for a fee now that would be rediculous hahaha
Click to expand...

Troy--I've been paranoid about this for awhile.

I love that I release my lines and guys like ABCs sit around and critique that my lines are a TD off of what they think it should be.

Then my line turns out to be only 3 pts or so off.

I wouldn't be surprised if these guys look at Covers and a few other sites to get help in choosing the lines before letting the market decide.
 
GL Al, you've been rock solid this year. Houston has never been great as a big fave with Kolb at QB, seems like the kid takes game off
 
Golden Knights are on my "also receiving votes" list for this week :smiley_acbe: I'll have to find out if Mr. Kolb is going to bet on the game or not:spank: GL Bro:cheers:
 
TroyStacks said:
bar i was on the fence with ucf now i am sold i'm on them....


i think ctg needs to strongly consider it. not to sound critical or anything but people like huntdog,abcs,rj,horn,mistaflava, yourself and me(a few others as well) put in time each week early starting on sunday after nfl kicks off discussing picks and then everyone else gets the benfits as well. and not to think too highly of this group of great cappers and guys but i really think a lot check in on monday and start pounding out early lines and they affect the line movements as well. anyways just a thought there can't complain here really at all its great!
Click to expand...

i am a lurker of many forums and trust me i have seen the good, bad, and ugly and I must admit this might be one of the most idiotic and egotistical statements i have ever seen in my life. if you think that one forum or one small group of posters has the ability to move vegas lines you are totally stupid. forums are designed for people to exchange information that can help everyone accomplish the same goal of beating the man. trust me as good as a few of the posters are here i can name a few other forums and posters who are just as good and maybe even better. so please don't say stupid things like this.
 
you totally missed the point. i was stating how if ther are alot of viewers they will play the games a lot of us are on thus having an indirect effect on the line movement early in the week. kind of a word of mouth turning a somewhat less popular play into a "public" play within a day.

however i will say that no other site can or will compare to this in temrs of quality cappers: member ratio. not even close and i will put my money where my mouth is on that. look how many here have 60%+ records. nuff said. not hating on other sites just staing the facts. nice 1st post btw
 
sportluver said:
i am a lurker of many forums and trust me i have seen the good, bad, and ugly and I must admit this might be one of the most idiotic and egotistical statements i have ever seen in my life. if you think that one forum or one small group of posters has the ability to move vegas lines you are totally stupid. forums are designed for people to exchange information that can help everyone accomplish the same goal of beating the man. trust me as good as a few of the posters are here i can name a few other forums and posters who are just as good and maybe even better. so please don't say stupid things like this.
Click to expand...

Depends on the levels folks bet at, bro. All he's saying is that it's looking like a lot of people are hitting the same lines he is. No big deal. Get over it.

Besides, if Dr Bob can move lines like he apparently does, I guess anyone conceivable could.
 
as good of a job as this place does i can name at least 3 or 4 other forums that will compete well with what is going on here but that is irrelevant. what is relevant is that no post or forum will influence line movement. and to think it does is only being naive. the public is full of suckers and the suckers always go where it looks too good to be true. they do it because it just feels right and they feel better when they see everyone else on the same play. vegas knows this which is why they set certain lines the way they do and the public has no idea they are being set up for disappointment. i always say that a wager shouldn't feel right. when it feels most uncomfortable is probaly when i have the greatest chance of winning.
 
the reason why dr bob and some other cappers can move lines is because they actually work for vegas. they are being paid to sway you in one direction or the other. but nobody here or in forums like this will ever have that power. the closest you will find is at covers with the editorial posts. i have a golden rule and that is when covers says to go one way you sprint as fast as you can the other way and it usually works.
 
redbearde said:
Depends on the levels folks bet at, bro.
Click to expand...

99.9% of all people in these types of forums bet 200 bucks or less on a game although few will ever admit to it. they all want you to think they are high rollers but they're not.
 
what is relevant is that no post or forum will influence line movement.

Give me one good reason why not. You haven't yet. You've only restated what you've already stated to be irrelavent.
 
sportluver said:
99.9% of all people in these types of forums bet 200 bucks or less on a game although few will ever admit to it. they all want you to think they are high rollers but they're not.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the wild speculation. You've got no idea, for instance, how much *I* wager. Now try again.
 
as i stated nobody here bets enough on a single game to move the line through vegas. i promise you that. and your response redbearde was so predicatable. even if you represent the .1% you are still not moving the line with your wager trust me.
 
LOL.

Okay. I trust you.

If all you're going to do is shit on people here, then go the fuck away, please.
 
Not to burst your bubble, sportluver...but I can almost guarentee that if we polled this entire site and asked for gambling records, more than .01% would have bets over $200 consistently. I'm not one of them, but I am pretty sure that I know at least a few guys on here are well over that mark...

This has gotten ridiculous, though...You really made an account just to bust on Troystacks for one comment? aye
 
not here to shit on anyone. i just hate egomaniacs. forums get travelled by a lot of very young and inexperienced gamblers and it was an opportunity for me to ad my .02 and help keep things in perspective. :drink:
 
Seabass said:
Not to burst your bubble, sportluver...but I can almost guarentee that if we polled this entire site and asked for gambling records, more than .01% would have bets over $200 consistently. I'm not one of them, but I am pretty sure that I know at least a few guys on here are well over that mark...

This has gotten ridiculous, though...You really made an account just to bust on Troystacks for one comment? aye
Click to expand...

Oh Seabass, don't you understand? We don't know him from Adam, but in every one of his posts he pleads with us to

TRUST HIM

I mean, what could be more convincing than someone with no history showing up in an internet forum to set us all straight?
 
its cool hitting the "ignore" button now this how how things start at covers and we're better than that....so unless he starts posting plays and has relevant conversation about a game that would be great and i wil participate unitl then not paying attention
 
sportluver said:
not here to shit on anyone. i just hate egomaniacs. forums get travelled by a lot of very young and inexperienced gamblers and it was an opportunity for me to ad my .02 and help keep things in perspective. :drink:
Click to expand...

TroyStacks may be an egomaniac that you hate, but he's a fucking helluva capper, and you may think it's assinine, but the guys here do a lot of excellent work on Sundays while most of the gambling world is trying to recover losses by chasing through Niffel.

MAybe they aren't moving lines themselves, but the goal of his statement was to get people to interact and contribute to this forum.

So far your "2 cents" has consisted of nothing except dropping a steaming pile of shit on TroyStacks in BAR's thread.

Thanks a lot for your contribution!

I TRUST YOU!
 
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