October ~ 2021

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [0-1 -4u]
2021 - [35-33 -1.61u]

Friday:

• 4/3.92 MARYLAND +3-102
• 4/3.92 UTAH STATE +9-102

random Iowa-Maryland tidbits

• The Hawkeyes don’t play a pretty brand of football. They grade out as a bottom-15 offense in yards per game, but that hasn’t stopped Iowa from averaging 28.8 points per game. On the other side, Iowa is allowing 11 points per game, just 2.3 yards per carry and has nine takeaways.
• The Terps are 4-0 for the first time since 2016. Maryland has quietly been one of the better offensive teams in college football, averaging 519.3 yards per game. Taulia Tagovailoa has been a driving force of that success, completing 75.5 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just one interception. With a top-20 scoring defense to match, the Terps might have the combination needed to pull an upset.

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [0-2 -8u]
2021 - [35-35 -9.61u]

SATURDAY

• 4/3.64 [116] East Carolina +3½ -110
• 4/4.12 [122] GEORGIA TECH +3+103
• 4/3.96 [132] PENN STATE -12½-101
• 4/3.81 [144] Buffalo +7 -105
• 4/3.92 [146] RUTGERS +15-102
• 4/3.92 [148] COASTAL CAROLINA (SC) -34-102
• 4/3.85 [150] NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1-104
• 4/3.64 [172] Alabama -8 -110 for 1st Half
• 4/3.85 [180] 1H GEORGIA -10-104
• 4/3.81 [190] Kansas State +11½ -105
• 4/3.81 [196] West Virginia -7 -105
• 4/3.92 [216] NEBRASKA -11-102
• 4/3.74 [218] MICHIGAN STATE -10½-107
• 4/3.81 [206] UTSA -21 -105

RANDOMS

Texas Tech has lost their last six road games. Tyler Shough is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 872 yards, 6 TDs and 3 picks. Erik Ezukanma and Kaylon Geiger have combined for 638 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Myles Price has nine receptions. The Red Raiders ground game averages 160 yards per game, and Tahj Brooks leads the way with 284 yards and four TDs.

Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 33.5 points and 377.5 yards per game. Colin Schooler leads the Texas Tech Red Raiders with 30 tackles, Jaylon Hutchings has two sacks and Marquis Waters has one interception.

West Virginia has won seven straight at home. Jarret Doege is completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 889 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 picks. Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Sam Jones have combined for 406 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns while Winston Wright Jr. has 17 receptions. The Mountaineers ground game averages 116.5 yards per game, and Leddie Brown leads the way with 321 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, West Virginia is allowing 16.8 points and 307.5 yards per game. Josh Chandler-Semedo leads the West Virginia Mountaineers with 35 tackles, Taijh Alston has 3.5 sacks and Jackie Matthews has one interception.

The Red Raiders are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 in October. The Mountaineers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The over is 35-17-1 in Red Raiders last 53 games in October. The under is 6-2 in Mountaineers last 8 games overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Texas Tech just allowed 70 points last week vs Texas, and they’re now ranked 100th in the country against the pass. The Mountaineers just took Oklahoma down to the wire last week and return home to one of the toughest venues in college football. West Virginia has been head and shoulders the more impressive team up to this point and it’s hard to back Texas Tech with confidence after what we saw last week. Gonna ride the Mountaineers and a somewhat reasonable number.

 

[mrpickem]

OTHERS TO CONSIDER...

• Army - 8 ...this line is moving up fast and for good reason. Army has one of the best rushing offenses in college football and they today they matchup against one of the worse in Ball State. Model shows Army winning by 14 pts.
• Duke +20 ...This ain’t your daddy’s Dukies. This team has a pretty solid offense that can get down the field and put up points. UNC on the other hand is overrated. They’ve shown signs of being good but they aren’t 20 pts over Duke good. I'm feeling more comfortable with this spot for Duke and wouldn’t be shocked if Duke found a way to win this outright today. That being said the model is showing a UNC 9.5
• Oregon -8:... Oregon is one of the most complete teams in the county right now. They will be able to score at will against a bad Stanford team. The model projects Oregon by more than two TDs.
• Boston College +16 ...I think we’re all at the point of understanding that this Clemson team isn’t what we’re used to from Dabo. The offense is struggling. I don’t see them putting up enough points to cover 16 here. The model is calls for a BC outright win(Its not perfect lol). I don’t necessarily think BC will win this but it should be closer than 16 points.

• Florida -8' ...Florida is still not getting enough credit for their performance against Bama. This team is good and has a legit chance of making a push for the playoffs. Emory Jones is playing better than he’s getting credit for and this Gator defense is much improved from last year. All that to say this team should be favored by at least 2 TDs today. I'm loving this line at 8' even if I see it through orange and blue glasses.

 

[mrpickem]

couple more

• 4/3.81 [172] Mississippi / Alabama UNDER 80 -105
• 4/3.60 [180] GEORGIA -16-111
• 4/3.96 [187] FLORIDA -7½-101

Hard to believe this 80 points in bama, on principle alone I must hit the under

 

[C-MAN]

Agree with a lot of those thoughts, except WVU. I just don’t trust this team to cover as a favorite. GL today.

 

[HUNT]

good luck mr.

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [11-5 +21.74u]
2021 - [47-41 +11.68u]
Solid day this past Saturday! :breakdance:

THURSDAY:

• 4/3.81 Coastal Carolina -20 -105

randoms...

-Costal Carolina has taken advantage of a weak schedule to start this season on a roll and outside of their game at Buffalo, has steamrolled opponents behind an explosive offense and very stout defense. Arky St has been able to put up some points, however, their defense has really struggled, coming into this game ranked just 129th in scoring D & 130th in total D. They should be able to get a few points on the scoreboard in front of their home crowd, but I just don’t see how the Red Wolves slow a Costal Carolina that has outscored opponents by a 112-9 margin over the past two weeks. Coastal likely puts up another 50+ points here and cruise to a fairly easy cover.
-Houston look like a team that’s getting stronger as the weeks go by and one of the best D's in the country, ranked fourth in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. The Green Wave has been good at home in the past, but they’re playing awful football this season up to this point. Tulane has a D that’s ranked 123rd in total defense, 112th in passing defense, 116th in rush defense and 126th in scoring defense. While the home team has won five straight meetings between Tulane and Houston, I would lay reasonable chalk with the Coogs on the road here, but 6.5 is a little steep. If it comes back under 6 I'll likely bite...otherwise I'm on the sidelines

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [1-0 +3.81u]
2021 - [48-41 +15.49u]

FRIDAY:

• 3/2.83 [308] CINCINNATI -29½ -106
• 3/2.75 [310] FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +3½ -109

FRI

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [1-1 -0.17u]
2021 - [49-42 +15.32u]

SATURDAY:

• 4/3.81 319 Wake Forest -6 -105
• 4/3.88 329 Buffalo +6½ -103
• 4/3.88 356 TEXAS TECH +2 -103
• 4/3.85 357 1H GEORGIA -8½ -104
• 4/3.81 363 North Texas +19 -105
• 4/3.88 365 SOUTH ALABAMA -3½-103
• 4/3.81 369 Vanderbilt +39 -105
• 4/3.81 371 Memphis +3½ -105
• 4/3.81 374 UL Monroe +16 -105
• 4/3.81 381 Michigan -2½ -105
• 4/3.81 387 Alabama / Texas A&M OVER 51 -105
• 4/3.81 392 Southern Miss +2 -105
• 4/3.96 393 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO +3 -101

randoms...

1. The Horned Frogs are not only coming off back-to-back losses, but they’ve had issues stopping the run and they’re 85th in scoring defense. The Red Raiders bounced back nicely with a big road win in West Virginia, and they have a top-25 passing attack that can score points in a hurry. Also this is the first road game of the season for TCU, so if the defensive issues were real at home, you can only imagine what they’d be on the road. Backing Texas Tech +2 at home, a game they should win outright.
2. Not sure what to make of the Aggies as historically they’ve been a threat to bama going back to the Johnny Manziel days and even slightly before that. With that said, I’m still playing with the over here as I expect the Tide to get their fair share of scoring done here...but I do see the Aggies putting up points as well. Plus after last weeks 70 point toal hung on bama, this should be a piece of cake.

 

[mrpickem]

one more...

• 4/3.57 PRINCETON -3 -112

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [4-9 -20.38u]
2021 - [53-51 -5.06u]

FRIDAY:

• 4/3.81 Syracuse +13½ -105
• 4/3.81 San Jose State +10 -105
• 4/3.81 CALIFORNIA +13½ -105

randoms...

• The Tigers are 14-5 ATS L19 away and 0-6 ATS in L6 games overall. The Orange are 5-1 ATS L6 home games and 4-0 ATS L4 overall. The under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Orange last 4 Friday games. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in L7 meetings. Even though Clemson has had an extra week to prepare for this game, they’re not nearly as good as they’ve been in years past, and their offense is one of the most disappointing in college football. The Orangemen are top-25 in total defense, have the 11th best rushing attack, and they’ve been competitive in all three losses, which includes taking FSU and Wake down to the wire. Cuse is a feisty team that’s going to put up a fight, and you should expect a packed house Friday night. This is a lot of points in a game that has a chance to be competitive. I’m backing the home dog in the dome tonight.

Big spot Saturday

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [3-0 +11.43u]
2021 - [56-51 +6.37u]

SATURDAY:

• 4/3.92 MICHIGAN STATE -4½ -102
• 4/3.81 Florida -12 -105
• 4/3.81 Auburn / Arkansas OVER 54 -105
• 4/4.00 Eastern Michigan +1 +100
• 4/4.12 NORTH CAROLINA -7½ +103
• 4/3.81 GEORGIA -21½ -105
• 4/3.88 FRESNO STATE -3½ -103
• 4/3.81 BOWLING GREEN +9 -105
• 4/3.85 WESTERN KENTUCKY -13½ -104
• 4/3.81 Pittsburgh -5 -105
• 4/3.81 Purdue +11½ -105
• 4/3.81 LIBERTY (VA) -32½ -105
• 4/3.92 UTAH STATE -7 -102
• 4/3.51 1H ALABAMA -10½ -114
• 4/4.00 Texas Tech -18½ -105

pend;

330 190 UGA 1 QTR


randoms...

• 1Q UGA -6.5 ...Last week was the 1st time this bet hasn't hit all season...and the Dawgs made it 10-3 just seconds into the 2nd qtr. I still love this bet. UGA at home is a different animal, Sanford Stadium gets UNBELIEVABLY loud, and tomorrow it'll be especially electric. College Game Day is in Athens and it's the SEC Matchup of the week as well. Plus the Dawgs are #1 for the first time since '08 preseason poll. These Dawgs are hungry and are very likely to POUND these pussy cats from the opening kick.
• UGA -21½ ...I do realize KY is a good football team, but when you look at them ON THE ROAD, they have a 6 point win against South Carolina who gave up 40 to UGA's backups. UK is 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. This, despite the defense forcing only 2 fumbles. Their offense has turned it over 12 times and the team has a -8 TO Ratio. Playing like that vs UGA, which has an average score margin of 40.0 to 5.5, won’t help the cause, ya think? So far the Dawgs have been killing the spread and every week, covering with ease...so I see no reason they won't do it again.
• Arkansas / Auburn OVER 54 ...Two big strong pound 'em out offenses; Arky (pretty) consistently puts up big numbers and Auburn just might surprise you. ARK's last game topped 100 points. Bo Nix is angry after the Dawgs exposed him and will want to take it out on the Hogs. You can expect fireworks and a very high scoring game.
• Cincy -21½ ...Cincy is America's team. They're playing at home against an average UCF who is 1-4 ATS this season. Also with QB Dillon Gabriel out, UCF only managed 10 points at home vs ECU after three quarters, and zero (0) quick-strike scoring drives for the game with 5’10”, 180 freshman QB Mikey Keene. Should Cincy get a lead and foeces UCF to abandon the run game, the Cats D won’t let Keene off the hook like ECU’s did. It will pressure the heck out of him again, and again, and then again after that.

​

• In Sparty’s 24-0 road loss vs Indiana last season, there were some positive signs. In 2nd half, Indy got 0 points on 5 possessions. MSU QB Payton Thorne has taken a big step forward since that game, and a Sparty offense that scored only 2 rushing TDs all of last season has 12 after only 6 games, bolstered by the presence of the nation’s leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III. Indiana lost top receiver and punt returner D.J. Matthews to injury 3 weeks ago, and #1 QB Michael Penix Jr. to another injury 3 weeks ago. Seeking a second straight road win, vs. Hoosiers off a bye, is cause for pause...not seeing it! SPARTANS 24-17

KEY INJURIES: Akron QB Nelson (undisclosed) ??; Arkansas St QB Blackman (shoulder) out; BoiseSt RB Holani (lower body) out; Buffalo WR Ruiz (knee) ?? CentralFla RB Bower (knee),& WR Robinson (undisclosed) both ??; CentralMich WR Sullivan (undis-closed) ??; Clemson WR Ross (head) probable; Florida RB Davis (knee) prob; FresnoSt QB Haene (lower body) prob; Georgia QB Daniels (back) ??; Illinois QB Peters (side) ??; Indiana QB Penix (shoulder) out; Miami-Fla QB King(shoulder) OFS (Out for Season); Miami-Ohio QB Gabbert (undisclosed) ??; Mich St RB Collins (leg) ??; Ole Miss RB Ealy (concussion) ??; New Mex QB Wilson (elbow) ??; N Texas RB Ragsdale (undisclosed) ??; Oregon RB Verdell (leg) OFS; Penn St QB Clifford (collarbone) ??; Rutgers QB Vedral (undisclosed) prob; Tex A&M RB Spiller (tailbone) prob; Tex Tech RB Brooks (leg) ??; Va WR Wicks (undisclosed) ??; Va Tech QB Burmeister (shoulder) ??; Wisc RB Berger OFS, & RB Guerendo (undisclosed) ??

LINE MOVES...
Florida (-3½ to -12½)
Pittsburgh (+1½ to -5)
Cincinnati (-16 to -22)
ColoSt (-7 to -11½)
Baylor (+1½ to -5½)
Wisconsin (-10 to -14)
Miss St (+21 to +17)
Toledo (-1 to -5)
Troy (- 4 to -7½)

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 5/4.39 1Q GEORGIA -6½-114

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [9-7 +5.39u]
2021 - [65-58 +11.76u]

• 4/3.64 SAN JOSE STATE -5½-110
• 4/3.81 Florida Atlantic -6½ -105

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [1-1 -0.19u]
2021 - [66-59 +11.57u]

Friday:

• 4/3.81 Connecticut +14½ -105
• 4/3.81 Memphis -1½ -105
• 4/3.88 WASHINGTON -17½ -103

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [0-3 -12u]
2021 - [66-62 -0.43u]

SATURDAY:

• 5/4.72 OKLAHOMA -38½ -106
• 5/4.95 BYU -4 -101
• 5/4.84 SAN DIEGO STATE +3 -104
• 5/4.76 Syracuse +3½ -105
• 5/4.76 Maryland +4½ -105
• 5/4.76 USC +7 -105
• 5/4.76 South Alabama -13½ -105
• 5/4.76 Ohio State -21 -105
• 5/4.76 Wyoming -20 -105

randoms...

• Wyoming -20 -105... I'll color this one "Revenge", as a year ago, the Lobos held the Cowboys pulled the 17-16 upset, as 19-pt chalks. 'Boys did their part with TOs in their final 2 possessions. Not only is Wyoming seeking to atone for that setback, but throw in the fact that they enter off a 5-TO shutout loss. The Lobos have yet to win or cover, with highly similar weekly disappointments (34-0, 38-10, 31-7 & 36-7 losses thus far). Come in off a 452-79 yard deficit, while averaging just 7.4 ppg in their last 5. I see no letup for the 'Boys here. Even though the line is 20 after opening at 17, it won't matter...pound the fav!

 

[CPA-hole]

Huge revenge game for WYO. They were embarrassed last year. Talked about it alot of the off-season about how they lost to a red-shirt walk-on qb.

Nm has no pulse on offense. Only scored last week on a punt return. Defense played well 1st half but were gassed in the 2nd.

NM had all of 76 yards total offense vs CSU.

I wouldn't worry too much about losing value on the opening number. UNM games have moved at least 3 pts off the number the last 4 weeks and it hasn't mattered.

Wyo is no prize either on offense but this is a huge game for them. 31-3 WYO for me.

GL today.

 

[mrpickem]

a few more...

• 5.25/5 TOLEDO +1½ -105
• 5.25/5 OHIO UNIVERSITY +5 -105
• 5.25/5 Massachusetts / Florida State OVER 59 -105
• 5.25/5 Kansas State / Texas Tech OVER 60½ -105
• 5.25/5 TCU -4½ -105
• 5.25/5 Purdue +3½ -105
• 5.25/5 Mississippi -9 -105
• 5.25/5 Western Kentucky / Florida Intl OVER 77 -105
• 5.15/5 MICHIGAN / NORTHWESTERN under 51 -103

...with a Northwestern offense that is No. 110 in scoring, cant see much success vs Michigan’s No. 9 scoring defense. Plus you have a Michigan team that is No. 101 in the country in terms of plays per minute. Also like Northwestern defense off the bye week limiting the Scarlet Knights to just 7 points last week. Yes, Michigan is off a bye but we have to think they spent some time prepping for next week’s showdown in East Lansing and won’t “empty the clip” here. 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone UNDER this 51 total.

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [7-11 -21.89u]
2021 - [73-73 -22.32u]

Thursday:

• 4/3.81 TROY STATE +17 -105

randoms...

Troy has had issues in their biggest games of the season and their offense struggles to finish drives. However, Troy has had an extra week to prepare for this game and has one of the better D's in the country, which is 7th in total defense and 13th in rush defense. Coastal Carolina is coming off a physical and emotional game against App State, and this could be a letdown spot. I’ll take the points here with a good defensive squad.

 

[mrpickem]

 

[booksbestfriend]

That last lady needs a Princess Leia slave outfit from Jaba's bar.

 

[mrpickem]

CFB

LAST - [1-0 +3.81u]
2021 - [74-73 -18.51u]

• 5/4.76 [118] IOWA / WISCONSIN under 36 -105
• 5/4.76 [121] Duke +16 -105
• 5/4.76 [123] Michigan -4 -105
• 4/3.88 [126] NC STATE -6½ -103
• 5/4.76 [136] Florida Atlantic -11 -105
• 4/3.81 [137] Miami Florida +9½ -105
• 5/5.00 [144] TEMPLE +10½ +100
• 5/4.63 [151] NORTH TEXAS +2½ -108
• 5/4.81 [158] UTAH -6½ -104
• 5/4.85 [162] CALIFORNIA +1½ -103 164853641
• 5/4.76 [171] Kansas +29½ -105
• 5/4.76 [174] LA TECH / OLD DOMINION under 52½ -105
• 5/4.81 [180] NEBRASKA -7½ -104
• 4/3.81 [181] Missouri -16½ -105
• 5/4.81 [183] TCU +3½ -104
• 5/6.25 [193] Texas +125
• 5/4.76 [198] Florida +14 -105
• 5/4.76 [201] Ul Monroe +27 -105
• 5/4.72 [205] UNCC / W KENTUCKY over 73 -106
• 5/4.76 [206] Western Kentucky -17½ -105
• 5/4.76 [210] Notre Dame -3½ -105
• 5/4.76 [213] Fresno State -1 -105

randoms...

• MI 6-1 ATS L7 overall and 5-1 ATS l6 after a SU win plus 4-1 ATS L6 after ATS win.
• Spartans 5-0-2 ATS L7 overall but 4-9-1 ATS L14 vs team with a winning record
• Michigan is really gelling now and were completely dominant vs Northwestern last time out, racking up 457 yards (294 on the ground), 29 first downs and a nice 12-of-20 mark on third-down tries. Plus they held the Wildcats to 233 yards and 10 first downs.
• Michigan St was outplayed in most facets vs the Hoosiers in last game, but to their credit they still found a way to win. The numbers were quite tepid, however: 241 total yards, 14 first downs, 2 turnovers and 12 penalties. The Spartans will need much more for this one, but I'm thinking the Blue D will keep them at bay for the most part and eventually get the comfortable 30-17ish win.

Injuries/Personnel News

• Georgia QB JT Daniels (back) is questionable vs Florida.
• Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro (shoulder) is questionable vs Utah St.
• Illinois QB Artur Sitkowski (arm) is out for the season.
• Indiana’s top 2 QB’s Michael Penix (shoulder) and Jack Tuttle (lower body) are doubtful for this week’s game vs Maryland. True freshman Donaven McCulley is likely to make his first career start.
• Liberty QB Malik Willis (foot) is probable vs Massachusetts.
• Miami, FL S Bubba Bolden (shoulder) is out for the season. Bolden was Miami’s leading tackler so far this season.
• Notre Dame All-American S Kyle Hamilton (knee) is out vs North Carolina.
• South Carolina QB Zeb Noland (knee) is probable vs Florida.
• Tulane QB Michael Pratt (head) is questionable vs Cincinnati.
• UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (shoulder) is questionable vs Utah.
• Vanderbilt QB Ken Seals (finger) is questionable vs Missouri.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PowerlessSilentDotterel-mobile.mp4