Oct 28-31 NBA Thread

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Figured the forum's gonna be busy for the 1st couple weeks with a lot of new threads as usual, then will eventually calm down mid-season. So I'll have weeklyish threads so as to avoid clutter. Preseason came up change which was a nice preparation for reg season and got me familiar with the teams this yr.

This season, I'm gonna be on very likely a 30 unit bankroll to start. Plays will range from 1-3 units. Majority being 1 unit. 3 unit plays will usually be anticipated well in advance, and have around 10 circled so far for the yr. 1 unit plays will be matchups that I think one team will exploit/plays that I see value in whether it be ML/spread/ totals (I typically suck at them). 2 unit plays will be something in between.

If I lose/double the 30 units, I'll take a break (whether it be a couple hrs or couple weeks to reevaluate what I'm doing right/wrong. Then start with a new bankroll from there. If I double the 30 units=60 units, I may either take those 60 units, double my bet size and go for another goal/or I may just cash out that 30 units and continue a new bankroll of the 30 units. The majority of my bets will be played thru matchbook.

Top post will be updated for plays/record

1 unit plays: 3-6
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 1-1

1st H plays: 2-0
--1st H totals: 0-0
--1st H sides: 2-0
2nd H: 0-3
--2nd H totals: 0-0
--2nd H sides: 0-3
Full game plays: 6-7
--FG sides: 5-5
--FG totals: 1-2

Total plays: 8-10
-2.3044

2nd H Portland +7- 1.1 units to win 1



(parentheses are odds before 2% transaction)
 
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As for day 1: likely not too an idea to go ML on all the dogs. 1-2 is worst case imo as

Chicago not good enough yet to proove they should be -6 -200+ ML esp not against an ex coach. rose's opener not 100%, no hughes. don't think Gooden/Tyrus can handle Bogut. whoevr starts for SG (kirk/gordon) neither will be able to contain Redd, and Luod doesn't have the speed to RJeff. Yes home opener for chicago which explains the line, but wouldnt advise laying -6 with Chicago. Not playing it, but gun to head- Milwaukee ML

Portland matches up well with the Lakes. Roy vs Kobe/ ALdridge vs Pau/ Bynum vs Oden/ Blake vs Fish / Radmon vs Batum/ Odom vs Outlaw/ Sasha and Farmar vs Rudy and Sergio/Bayless. Portland been showin up well in preseason, while bynum (despite how he looekd vs OKC on ESPN) looked like shit the rest of the games. Roy been lookin really sharp and his leadership has grown even further. I may get down on a unit on Portland, but will have to see. Lake's home opener so not too sure. However, 7.5 is a lot of point to be giving a solid Portland team.\

I will be on cleveland, with writeup likely 2m.
 
I didn't watch many Warriors games last season so was wondering what your observations of Matt Barnes are?
 
rod_steel said:
I didn't watch many Warriors games last season so was wondering what your observations of Matt Barnes are?
Click to expand...

not a fan. he rode the bench most of last yr despite his nice performance in the playoff run. He has the tools to be good- 6'7 I believe, can shoot, rebound, kind of create, cant defend. However, he is imo a cheap version Marion- ugly game. His outlet passes would be fantastic for Phoenix last yr as the best thing he did for us was after made buckets, he would take it out of the hoop and football pass it to monta around to midcourt to ignite a quick bucket- which would be great for Phoenix if they were planning to be doing a lot of that this yr. I was confused by the signing as his greatest tool is his outlet passing. Announcers like to call him a 'playmaker', but he wasn't one. heh sorry for the negative feedback rod, but thats how I view him. He might be able to perform given more PT as he likely will this yr with the Suns.
 
:hang: writeup gone because I pressed backspace. WIll try to get one up again in a bit. SO far have one in: Cleveland 1st H +3.5 (-105)- 2.1 to win 2
 
some notable quotes from previous 1st game of the seasons:


SAN ANTONIO (AP) -- If only this one night, exacting San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich would give his players a break.
With their newest championship banner hanging high above the sellout crowd and the players looking like kids in a candy store as they examined their shiny new championship rings, it was understandably a challenge for the team to buckle down for a regular old basketball game.

The Spurs eventually did, beating the Portland Trail Blazers 106-97 Tuesday night. And even Popovich was willing to overlook the occasional lack of concentration.

"I think the ring ceremony is always a little bit emotional and always a lot of fun," Popovich said. "It probably keeps you from being your best as far as focus is concerned."




MIAMI (AP) -- They got their championship rings, saw the postseason highlights played on giant video screens and watched a new banner swing from the arena's rafters.
Everything was perfect for the Miami Heat.

And then the game began
"I don't know how much getting the rings had to do with it," said Hinrich, who signed a five-year extension hours before tipoff. "That probably had something to do with it. But we're excited. It's a good start."



Before the game, San Antonio unveiled its third championship banner in the rafters of the SBC Center, and NBA commissioner David Stern was there to shake hands with the players who received their white gold-and-diamond title rings.

Then the Spurs came out flat.

"We were a little antsy to play the game, but at the same time you want to do too many things in the first minutes," said Manu Ginobili, who finished with 10 points on 2-for-9 shooting.



Just before Detroit's third world championship banner was raised to the rafters, Billups reached his right hand out and grabbed it.

"You wait so long for this day to happen and when it happens, you just want to cherish it," said Hamilton, who put his ring on during the ceremony. "You forget that you've got a game to play."



Before the game, the San Antonio players, coaches and executives were presented their diamond-heavy rings. Former Spurs David Robinson, Steve Kerr and Danny Ferry, all now retired, returned to the SBC Center to join six of last year's teammates getting rings.

The boisterous crowd went quiet when the Spurs fell behind 16-2 early,
 
overall I like cleveland. Boston is an extrememly emotional team and you know the banner/ring ceremony will be similiar to game 6 and the players and fans will have similiar feelings. The big 3 worked too hard their careers to not receive their rings and pump their fists to the crowd as the banner rises, allthewhile high-fiving eachother amazed at the size of the rings and thinking of where to put it. Despite what may be said, it is only human nature to have a letdown and come out flat. Not only is it likely, but there is nothing wrong with it as they have deserved it if not only for one night.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's last game was here at Boston where Boston sent them home along with any championship hopes in game 7 of the eastern semis. You know Bron has been waiting for his revenge, watching the Lakers series and the replays from each of the 7 games. Will it help as Boston smiles raising their banner, and maybe a few hecklers talkin shit to lebron about how he'll lose just like last yr in the playoffs?

I saw some threads talkin of this line being too short as Cleveland was +9ish in the playoffs at Boston. However, imo it is not. Boston talent wise lost their 6th man and best reserve esp to defend lebron. Cleveland added a potential all-star in Mo Williams. Also, the -9 imo was inflated as the games in Cleveland were Cleveland -3, so NO WAY one team should be -3 at home at +9 on the road. SO those plays were inflated, possibly explaining cleveland covering those spreads. Also, the situation must be taken into account with the line. If they didn't shade the lines a bit for good situations for some teams, then the market would just move the line down eventually- while the books get beat being forced to move it.

Doc will definitely try to rest the starters a bit more this yr, and will keep it in mind for game 1- nothing like saying you'll rest your men a bit more this season like starting game 1 with everyone getting 40+ minutes. So 30-35 seems reasonable. However, would anybody be surprised if Bron plays 48? And who comes off the bench to defend Lebron? -Tony Allen? Bill Walker? IMO Cleveland has had this game cicled since the schedule came out as a chance to seek revenge while Boston has been awaiting their rings and will be emotionally exhausted by tip. The celtics are a different type of team in that they are led by emotional leaders- which is a good thing except in instances like this.

I still think Boston will be the beasts of the east, but tonight Cleveland steals the show. Prediction: Cleveland 92-87. (up 47-40 at half)
 
big plays on opening day. I hate to be on the 1st game so big, but I think the situation warrants it. May add a 2nd H bet on the late game if I see something I like, but for now thats it for today. 2nd favorite lean is portland getting too many points
 
as for 2m, NO should open -4ish climb its way to 4.5/5 and they'll win by 10ish.
Will try to get NO -5 at plus juice
 
Also, if Milwaukee can pull out the W in Chicago tonight- which they very well might, getting OKC in their home opener at pkish? is enticing
 
NY at pk? at home probably will be a bet as well. Miami does not turn from a 15 win team to a team favored to win on the road by adding a rookie and a rookie head coach. No diea what to expect in a line from this. pk wouldnt surprise me, but neither would NY -5. Miami again this yr will be a sexy pick for people in a bounceback season. They may do it, but the olympics are not the NBA and neither is NCAA- which is what people seem to be basing their assumptions on the Heat on. I see a lot of love for them everywhere that are trying to call a "surprise team."- never really good
 
sf...the cavs will not be out on the floor for the ceremony just an fyi...i know it will still be motivating to the cavs, but i read a local article that they made it clear to the nba they won't be out there; they'll be in the lockerroom...also, i would be surprised if he played more than 42 mins... brown said he wants to keep his number below 40 this season. i certainly hope you're right and the cavs win as it would be a great jumpstart to the season...but i just don't see it tonight. bol this year...look forward to reading your thoughts this season
 
broadwayjoe said:
sf...the cavs will not be out on the floor for the ceremony just an fyi...i know it will still be motivating to the cavs, but i read a local article that they made it clear to the nba they won't be out there; they'll be in the lockerroom...also, i would be surprised if he played more than 42 mins... brown said he wants to keep his number below 40 this season. i certainly hope you're right and the cavs win as it would be a great jumpstart to the season...but i just don't see it tonight. bol this year...look forward to reading your thoughts this season
Click to expand...

Yes I am aware that they will not be on the court, and I probably read the same article about it not being a motivator or anything. However, if it didn't piss them off and motivate them- then why would they make such a bold statement and not be on the court? 42 minutes is fine with me, and the point I was making was more that Boston imo will make a conscious effort to limit PT and the only way to make it a habit is to force themselves early despite situations. IMO, brown is not prepared enough, if watching the bronless cavs give up a 6-0 run to keep him out
 
:shake:

i agree...will definitely be motivating. and i think if you like the cavs, which you obviously do, the +265 is a good idea, because if it stays that close, i doubt lebron doesn't win it
 
kind of disagree with you on lebron's rest though...we're healthy and we actually gained some depth with the different lineups we can use with the hickson and williams additions. think we can afford to rest lebron a little more. last year we didn't have those two players and weren't healthy either not to mention we revamped our whole roster mid-season. so i think that had a lot to do with the beatings without lebron on the floor.
 
SF_capper said:
not a fan. he rode the bench most of last yr despite his nice performance in the playoff run. He has the tools to be good- 6'7 I believe, can shoot, rebound, kind of create, cant defend. However, he is imo a cheap version Marion- ugly game. His outlet passes would be fantastic for Phoenix last yr as the best thing he did for us was after made buckets, he would take it out of the hoop and football pass it to monta around to midcourt to ignite a quick bucket- which would be great for Phoenix if they were planning to be doing a lot of that this yr. I was confused by the signing as his greatest tool is his outlet passing. Announcers like to call him a 'playmaker', but he wasn't one. heh sorry for the negative feedback rod, but thats how I view him. He might be able to perform given more PT as he likely will this yr with the Suns.
Click to expand...

Cheers for the thoughts, will be interesting to see how he handles the starting role in PHX.
 
ust a little action play. more hoping LA rests a bit in the 2nd for 2m, while Portland improves that 31% shooting. Portland been sloppy and ugly, hopefully a couple HT adjustments will fix it
 
ok well looks like I have 2m set. Got New Orleans -5 in already. Have offers waiting to be matched on:
Denver/Utah UNDER 210.5-too high imo. Utah without their motor in Deron, and their offense will struggle. KMart should be able to contain Boozer, esp since he'll be more on 1on1 matchups as opposed to the pick and rolls he'd be doing with DWill. No Melo for Denver obviously hurts


A week ago, Nuggets coach George Karl said it was "likely" that Dahntay Jones would start the first two games at small forward in place of the suspended Carmelo Anthony. But after Tuesday's practice, Karl said he was unsure whether he'd go with Jones or Linas Kleiza.
Karl said he's debating on what tone he'd like to set at the start of the game — Jones is more defensive-minded, Kleiza offensive-minded. The coach will make a decision tomorrow, prior to the season-opener at Utah.
Anthony was suspended for two games to start the season after a DUI arrest last April.
Karl also brought up an interesting point about playing time, which follows the theme of his training camp — defense.
The coach was asked if having Anthony, Allen Iverson and J.R. Smith on the floor in the fourth quarter was the best strategy, because those are the three most-potent offensive players on his roster. "A.I., J.R. and Melo, huh," Karl said. "You're not seeing it the way I'm seeing it. Those three on the court together have yet to prove to me they can cover (defensively). The commitment has gotten better, but I don't want to get in shootouts that we got into last year. They can score — but can they defend? My desire is to balance the game seriously at both ends of the court and not allow them that freedom and openness because we're playing a shootout mentality. Last year, that could beat a lot of teams, but couldn't beat the big-time teams."

Utah D looking better in preseason

SA -2.5
Phoenix with too many changes coming and not quite fixed yet as they havnt played together much yet, and facing the SA D, they should struggle a lot. I would be concerned of playoff revenge, but with Shaq's comments, moivation is there for both teams, so I'll take the better team doing the stuff thats won them 3 championships in the beginning of an odd numbered yr at home at a short number

Philly -5.5
Both teams biggest headliner moves this offseason. Preseason- toronto looks like a mess. often just kicking it in and standing around hoping Oneal/Bosh will score- (fuck think Blazers today with Oden/Aldridge). Sixers with the huge home court welcoming Brand. Brand/Dalembert should be able to contain Bosh/Oneal on D. Miller should eat up the smaller Calderone, and the wings wings with way more talent. Not sure who starts at SF for Toronto: either Moon/Graham.
 
SF

good luck today. Only thing that concerns me about SA, is that they have no Manu, and they have tended to get out to a extremely slow start the last few years. Phoenix revenge as well.

Love NO though
 
agh, SA and Philly line moved against me. Still waiting for that damn under- 6/10th of it still available. Leaning to NY. scared to play the forum's over because I dunno what to expect from Miami. Are they good for 100 here? Also, without a sure PG (chalmers?) I don't want to be playing a over. However, NYK still looking good to me, and the Miami love will probably get me an even better line. Marion vs D'Antoni- who takes advantage? IMO Marion prospered the best from D'antoni and knows the system best- maybe also knows how to defend it? I can imagine him reminding everyone to get back on D and possibly cutting off routes on D.
 
Coach Erik Spoelstra said the Heat has 75 to 80 percent of its total defensive package in the gameplan, but not nearly as much of its offensive package as he’d like.“When we got back from Europe, I slowed way down, significantly, and it was primarily because of our turnover problem,” he said. “We were turning the ball over 25 times a game, and familiarity was not there. So I really simplified and slowed down and made sure we knew what we had in already and just worked on our spacing and timing.”


Tonight will mark the second games for Chalmers and Beasley at Madison Square Garden, with each losing there in college, Beasley against Notre Dame, Chalmers against St. Joe's. "It just brings more nerves," Beasley said. "Not only is it my first NBA game, but it's in the mecca of basketball."
 
2nd h Philly -4- 1.1 units to win 1

Philly dominating the pt and boards, but Toronto hot from out. Should cool down
 
luckily still even for season after shit day. Mad I stayed off NY and Indi. And mad I didnt hit NO on the opener. Not much interesting today. Leans to Houston/Dallas UNDER and New Orleans. Mad I didnt play the under when I saw it at 193 :(
 
throwing another unit on NO. waiting for it to get matched

Reading thru all papers, Phoenix seems a bit too happy about themselves off that one. notable quotes:

Tim's spot is six or seven feet over to the right," said Nash, remembering Duncan's dramatic 3-pointer that forced overtime and led to a San Antonio win in Game 1 of last year's playoffs here. "My thought was, 'Go ahead and make it again big boy, we'll find a way to win this somehow."

"I'm not going to say I told you so," said Nash, who had 13 points and 13 assists and told anyone who would listen that this team would become a marriage of old and new. "Let's think about this: The pick-and-roll is the toughest play in the league to guard. We're good at it. So it makes sense to go to it.

"As long as we're out there, playing our game and our style, we're going to share the ball and be successful," said Stoudemire, who had 11 of his 22 points in the final seven minutes. "That pick-and-roll … that's our bread-and-butter. We have other things we need to improve with, but that's something we can lean on."

It was good coming out and getting a win against our nemesis,” said forward Grant Hill, who had 13 points in 19 minutes off the bench, including a 30-foot, 3-point banker to end the third quarter — showing what the Suns missed when injuries forced him out in the playoffs last year. “We kind of out San Antonio-ed San Antonio.”
 
gun to head- GS to cover. GS looked pretty decent in the loss at home to NO. Many of NO buckets were fadeaways by West/Peja. Our zone confused CP3, so hpoefully that continues tonight. However, we were leaving shooters wide open when they swung it around, and Toronto has the shooters: Parker, Bargs, Kapono, aderone to punish us. therefore gonna go with the over
 
There was the tantalizing option of running away, at least mentally, from Wednesday's all-around debacle, a 117-79 loss to the Lakers, which was the Clippers' season opener.

Heaven knows that they would all get another viewing when they got to their practice facility Thursday, from Captain Video, also known as Coach Mike Dunleavy. But Clippers forward Al Thornton wasn't going to run or hide, even for a few hours
Thornton went home from Staples Center and viewed the game again, saying he stayed up almost the whole night, getting to bed about 4 in the morning.

A scary movie, right?

"Probably even worse because you're embarrassed in front of the whole nation," said Thornton, who had 16 points, going seven for 15 from the field.


That feeling led to a long closed-door team meeting after the game, and new Clipper Baron Davis expressed his anger in no uncertain terms. Thornton did say there were other voices in the discussion.

"We had talked and talked about what kind of identity we have," Thornton said. "What kind of direction we want to go. What kind of purpose? What's our purpose? Who do we want to be as a team?"

There were not many answers for those questions Wednesday.

"It got a little loud," Thornton said of the meeting. "At the end of the day, we all have the same goal. We want to win. It can't be tolerated."

Not by a certain point guard named Baron Davis.

"He's a rowdy little fella," Thornton said. "When he gets [mad], he's pretty fierce."

Was that the case Wednesday in the dressing room?

"Yeah, that's accurate," Thornton said
 
this one is painful to do, but I may go Clips ML for 3 units. Clips absolutely pissed off from their last loss although playing the Lakes may be the hardest task for any team this yr. Looking at their schedule, this is their only chance to avoid 0-7, while Denver essentially starts their season 2m: Melo coming back from suspension and have HUGE rveenge vs LAL 2m at home in their home opener.
 
eh stayed off couple leans. final card will be:
NYK/Philly over 214.5- 1 unit
Orlando -7- 2 units
Clipps ML- 3 units
choosin b/w Portland 1st H ML and Portland ML- 1 unit
 
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