November 2015

[hugh613]

YTD: 10-14-1, -5.30

Sunday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CD-E-LDc384" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

11/1/2015 2:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Atlanta Hawks/Charlotte Hornets* Under 94½ -110 for 1st Half
11/1/2015 3:35 PM NBA Basketball 703 San Antonio Spurs/Boston Celtics* Under 95½ -110 for 1st Half

*90's month... Slow start to the regular season but, after finishing the pre season on a 17-4, 18-3 (or whatever it was) run, I suppose a leveling off was always inevitable. On the bright side, November's always been my biggest month here at CTG during the three seasons I've posted NBA (of course, then I've crashed and burned my way through December, but that's not the point... : ) Plus, Memphis making a strong push to be the first member of the "DO NOT BET" list (1-4-1, -3.40). As for today, going to hold off on the later games for a bit, and just go with the two afternoon unders for now. As to why 1H and not FT, don't quote me on this, but seems to me whenever the 1H total is significantly less than half the game total (94.5/193.5, 95.5/200), it tends to go under (kind of like the oddsmakers way of telling you: "It's going to be close down the stretch, so expect a lot of points the last minute or two to help push the full game total over.") Again, this isn't actually a real thing (well, I don't think at least) - just me hypothesizing.

 

[hugh613]

NBA Summer League: 9-6, +2.40
NBAX 2015: 32-19-1, +15.85
October 2015: 10-14-1, -5.30

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Good Luck hugh, This year shall be different with no giving backsies. I like your the insight into the first half Total's and reasoning.:cheers3:

 

[braves]

good luck on the season mate

 

[guaranteeed]

gl today hugh

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 12-14-1, -3.30

Adding:

11/1/2015 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Milwaukee Bucks/Toronto Raptors* Over 199½ -110
*Hard to make definitive assessments this early in the season due to the lack of comparative data, but think it's safe to say the Toronto offense has been pretty good to this point while the Bucks defense has been pretty bad. As for Milwaukee, kind of hard to say for sure what they'll bring to the table offensively, but Bucks/Raptors games at the ACC tend to go over (if just barely), so while it may not finish in the 220's, don't think it finishes in the 180's either.

Thanks Paulie, braves and teeed.

 

[hugh613]

Just going off what I mentioned this morning, there does seem to be a bit of a lean to the under (at least this season) whenever the 1H total is significantly lower than half the full game total (in this case, I went with a minimum 3 points lower).

<tbody>
[TD="class: xl66"] VISITOR
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[TD="class: xl66, width: 23"]
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[TD="class: xl66, width: 5"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 125"] HOME [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 23"]
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[TD="class: xl65, width: 23"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 5"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 128, colspan: 4"] FULL TIME [/TD]
[TD="width: 11"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 128, colspan: 4"] FIRST HALF [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 1Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 2Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 3Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 4Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] OT [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 1H [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 2H [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] FT [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 1Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 2Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 3Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 4Q [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] OT [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 1H [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 2H [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] FT [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] O/U [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] +/- [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: center"] TT1 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: center"] TT2 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] O/U [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] +/- [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: center"] TT1 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: center"] TT2 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
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[TD="class: xl71"]
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[TD="class: xl71"]
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[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Indiana Pacers [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 30 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 15 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 31 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 45 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 54 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 99 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Toronto Raptors [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 17 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 35 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 34 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 37 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 69 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 106 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 199.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -5.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 97.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 102.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 96.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -3.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 46.8 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 49.8 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Utah Jazz [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 15 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 29 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 44 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 43 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 87 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Detroit Pistons [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 16 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 25 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 41 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 92 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 191.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 95.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 95.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 90.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -0.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 45.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 45.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] San Antonio Spurs [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 27 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 55 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 51 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 106 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Oklahoma City Thunder [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 29 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 21 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 29 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 33 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 50 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 62 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 112 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 207.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -4.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 101.8 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 105.8 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 100.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -2.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 49.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 51.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Utah Jazz [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 22 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 24 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 25 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 50 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 49 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 99 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Philadelphia 76ers [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 19 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 14 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 18 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 33 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 38 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 71 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 186.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 7.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 97.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 89.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 89.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 3.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 46.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 43.0 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Utah Jazz [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 19 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 27 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 42 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 55 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 97 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Indiana Pacers [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 29 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 12 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 15 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 49 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 27 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 76 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 193.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -4.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 94.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 98.5 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 90.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] -2.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 44.3 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 46.3 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Atlanta Hawks [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 28 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 18 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 24 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 24 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 46 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 48 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 94 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Charlotte Hornets [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 18 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 21 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 37 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 16 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 39 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 53 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 92 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 195.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 2.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 98.8 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 96.3 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 94.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 47.8 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 46.8 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] San Antonio Spurs [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 21 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Boston Celtics [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 13 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 18 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"] 23 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 202.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 6.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 104.3 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 98.3 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 95.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 3.0 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 49.3 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 46.3 [/TD]

</tbody>

That would be 5-2 for the under to this point (full time as well). Admittedly, this isn't necessarily a "thing" (without years of historical data, kind of hard to back it up) and a grand total of 7 games really means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but it's just something I've noticed in the past (the 1H line is usually an even split of the FT line, give or take a point or two). Could be something, could be nothing, but I'll track it for a while and let you know...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/1/2015 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Chicago Bulls* Over 51½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half
11/1/2015 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 712 Oklahoma City Thunder* -7 -115 vs Denver Nuggets for 1st Half
11/1/2015 7:00 PM NBA Props Basketball 1625 N.Vucevic points+rebounds over 28½* -120 vs N.Vucevic points+rebounds under 28½

*Don't trust the Magic or Nuggets enough to take the 1H overs (watching Denver shoot 30.5% against the worst defense in the league makes you lose faith pretty fast). As for the Vucevic prop, been kind of fixated on it all morning. If the Magic are smart, they'll try and exploit the mismatch against Pau Gasol who's had a rough go of it matching up against the opposing team's centers so far (Andre Drummond 20/20, Brook Lopez 26/7, Timofey Mozgov 5/5 (although with Tristan Thompson back, only played 20 minutes and barely took any shots)).

 

[nbafan88]

I went with the vucevic point prop Toronto TT over and OKC TT Over. Good luck

 

[hugh613]

I went with the vucevic point prop Toronto TT over and OKC TT Over. Good luck

Haha. Just to show you how stupid I am, I was going to take the points over until I saw the "+" sign in front of it, which scared me off. Just hope it's not all Oladipo and Payton though (I mean, really, Vucevic should be able to get a minimum 15 points without even trying going up against a combo of Gasol/Mirotic/Snell - if they actually go to him inside, no reason he can't put up 20+ and a double/double.)

Good luck nba.

 

[hugh613]

After the first four minutes, Vucevic has 7 points, and then they stop going to him altogether. Makes sense...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/1/2015 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 713 Dallas Mavericks* -2 -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half
*Rotoworld saying Chandler Parsons is playing tonight, but only the 1H. Wesley Matthews also in.

 

[hugh613]

Vucevic with 15 points and 9 rebounds after 3 quarters. 4 more points to hit nbafan's points total (pretty sure it was 18.5) and 5 combined to hit my points+rebounds. Hopefully Tobias Harris stops trying to be a hero...

 

[hugh613]

This is setting up pretty nicely for Lakers 2H: Parsons not supposed to play in 2H (although he hasn't really done anything, so not sure it really matters), three refs on the upper end of fouls called per game in Holtkamp, Kirkland and Wright who haven't called a thing to this point, no turnovers by the Mavs, and the Lakers scorers (ie. Kobe, Nick Young and Roy Hibbert being overly passive). Just a matter of spread or team total (William Hill putting up Mavs -2/103.5 right now)...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 15-16-1, -2.60

Adding:

11/1/2015 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 714 Los Angeles Lakers* Over 52 -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 2nd Half
*Can't really justify Lakers ATS given that the Mavs have only been to the line four times all game, but with the Lakers only shooting 30.2% in the 1H (yet still getting to 45 points), law of averages dictates that goes up, so their scoring should as well (especially if they keep getting to the line).

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 15-17-1, -3.70

Monday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1HbF3EAt3ck" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

11/2/2015 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 504 New York Knicks* Under 98 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
11/2/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Portland Trail Blazers* Over 100 -110 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
11/2/2015 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 514 Los Angeles Clippers* -9 -110 vs Phoenix Suns

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/2/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Oklahoma City Thunder/Houston Rockets* Over 108½ -110 for 2nd Half

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 17-19-1, -3.90

Tuesday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U8b88US-6ts" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

11/3/2015 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Chicago Bulls/Charlotte Hornets* Over 193 -110
11/3/2015 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 703 Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat* Under 195½ -110
11/3/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 New Orleans Pelicans* -3 -110 vs Orlando Magic

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Tuesday bud.

 

[Paulie The Vig]

hugh I like the idea of tracking the 1st half total's and using a 3 pt diff. Question I'm using after movement of numbers not opening numbers are we on the same page. The numbers pretty much move all day so I'm looking at mid morning moves and truth be known when do you look and consider it a play or does it matter if it gets there it becomes a play regardless of when it moves.

EX: Det//Indy open 199 and now has moved to 201 with the First Half lined 97.5 which is a 3 point diff to the 201
The Miami/ Atl game is at 2 point diff at this time. Very interested in hearing what you have to say on this. I'm pretty successfull on half time betting it's possible that this 1st find can bear the same fruit as my half time system (I hate using that word)

TIA

Best of Luck and the rest of the year:shake:

 

[hugh613]

hugh I like the idea of tracking the 1st half total's and using a 3 pt diff. Question I'm using after movement of numbers not opening numbers are we on the same page. The numbers pretty much move all day so I'm looking at mid morning moves and truth be known when do you look and consider it a play or does it matter if it gets there it becomes a play regardless of when it moves.

EX: Det//Indy open 199 and now has moved to 201 with the First Half lined 97.5 which is a 3 point diff to the 201
The Miami/ Atl game is at 2 point diff at this time. Very interested in hearing what you have to say on this. I'm pretty successfull on half time betting it's possible that this 1st find can bear the same fruit as my half time system (I hate using that word)

TIA

Best of Luck and the rest of the year:shake:

To be honest, I can't quite remember why I chose 2.5 (I know it wasn't totally arbitrary, but I just can't remember right now). And as to when I would play it or if I would play it, that I can't say for sure. Like you say, lines move (to an extent) throughout the day, whereas the 1H opener is the book taking it's initial stance, irrespective of how much volatility the full time number has shown, so I would think that would be the safest barometer (although, having said that, the Atlanta/Charlotte total opened at 193, in which case 2.5 wouldn't have worked off the 1H opener of 94.5 - it just so happened that when the 1H numbers went up Sunday morning, the split already existed).

Like I said, this isn't really a "system", just something I've happened to notice from time to time (as well as seeing others mention it as well). It's just because the 1H total is most often an even split of the full game total (give or take a point or two), so kind of catches your eye to see such a great divide between the numbers (same principle would apply to football as well, although given the relative size of the totals in football, it would be a less common occurrence).

And the other thing, which is probably self explanatory, is that it's obviously not foolproof. I agree that the books will sometimes tip their hand, but much like the good old West Coast teams with 1 PM start times, I'm sure the books are a little smarter than us with regards to setting the lines (and just an FYI, doing the opposite (ie. 1H total higher than the full game) didn't really yield anything of note.)

Maybe I'll start a separate thread to keep track of it (or serve as a constant reminder of how lazy I can be when I stop tracking it, LOL).

EDIT: One other problem is that all the numbers I've been keeping have been off the closing number. Guess I could do it off the openers, but that's going to require a bit more leg work. I'll try to work up something for the weekend.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/3/2015 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 705 Indiana Pacers/Detroit Pistons* Under 97½ -110 for 1st Half
11/3/2015 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 712 Sacramento Kings* Under 96 -110 vs Memphis Grizzlies
*Pacers/Pistons based off the discussion Paulie and I were having (although that's now given me a headache as I start to think through the process. Son of a... : ) and if the Grizzlies have any pride, whatsoever, they come out playing shut down D against a team missing it's MVP. As for the three posted earlier, Charlotte's taking a million 3's right now for some reason, so that's either a sink or swim type total (if the Bulls participate, think it'll be swim). Series trends under in Miami, and each team playing pretty slow to start the season, so hopefully that continues. And after watching Orlando against the Bulls the other night, safe to say that just isn't a very good team right now. Talented team, to an extent, but not good enough to win on the road against a Pelicans team that should be breathing a sigh of relief they're playing anyone other than the Warriors.

Thanks BAR, Paulie and Metallica.

 

[nbafan88]

weird move on the total in the pacers/pistons game.... lots of action on the under is usually a bad sign

good luck

 

[hugh613]

weird move on the total in the pacers/pistons game.... lots of action on the under is usually a bad sign

good luck

Thanks nba. The "public" has to win every once in a while... : ) And @ Paulie, remembered why I went with 2.5 - just so I could have a delineation of 5 points (still a somewhat arbitrary number, but 5 seemed better than 4 or 6, although now I'm thinking of maybe going with '3' - look what you've done! : ). Plus, I'm thinking any time that '5' exists, it should be a go because, in theory, the 1H number should be keeping in step with the full time total (total goes up a point, 1H should move by 0.5, in theory at least). Now on the off chance the full time total moves down and crosses the number, not sure what to do in that instance.

I'll decide by the end of the weekend what the criteria should be, but don't be afraid to chime in.

 

[betman4ever]

weird move on the total in the pacers/pistons game.... lots of action on the under is usually a bad sign

good luck

Imo both teams and particularly Indiana played pretty good defensive teams so far and this has the potential become a faster higher scoring game

BOL hugh!

 

[nbafan88]

Thanks nba. The "public" has to win every once in a while... : ) And @ Paulie, remembered why I went with 2.5 - just so I could have a delineation of 5 points (still a somewhat arbitrary number, but 5 seemed better than 4 or 6, although now I'm thinking of maybe going with '3' - look what you've done! : ). Plus, I'm thinking any time that '5' exists, it should be a go because, in theory, the 1H number should be keeping in step with the full time total (total goes up a point, 1H should move by 0.5, in theory at least). Now on the off chance the full time total moves down and crosses the number, not sure what to do in that instance.

I'll decide by the end of the weekend what the criteria should be, but don't be afraid to chime in.

public unders and public dogs are oxymorons... they should not exist


similar to your thoughts above, whenever i see RLM on a public under i think it is the books tipping their hand

 

[Paulie The Vig]

hugh

Thanks much for your quick reply and the work that you do. I most certainly will chime in and do some work myself and give you my opinion. I won't let you go at it alone and lets see maybe there is something to it. Just for the record I'm looking at a 3 number as min to keep tracked of and of course to look futher into the game. But if it does give us a good starting point it will be worth the work. Tough game you know

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/3/2015 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 710 Dallas Mavericks* +135 vs Toronto Raptors for 2nd Half
*Looks like Indiana and Detroit pulled a fast one on me... Anyways, not sure I've even managed to hit a 2H bet this season, but this was a play I probably should've hit from the beginning because of the questionable line (plus taking the +2 2H didn't seem to make any sense, unless the Mavs win the game by 1 point, so might as well try the ML).

Thanks betman and Paulie.

 

[hugh613]

hugh

Thanks much for your quick reply and the work that you do. I most certainly will chime in and do some work myself and give you my opinion. I won't let you go at it alone and lets see maybe there is something to it. Just for the record I'm looking at a 3 number as min to keep tracked of and of course to look futher into the game. But if it does give us a good starting point it will be worth the work. Tough game you know

Just as an FYI, I looked over my spreadsheet just now, and in the 8 games that have featured this 1H Under / 5 point split, the 1H is 3-5 O/U, but FT is 2-6 O/U. Of course, now that I've said that, it probably flip flops the next game.

And I need to work on my math skills - my DAL ML would be a non runner if they were to only win the game by 2. D'oh!

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 20-22-1, -4.10

Wednesday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2-V8kYT1pvE" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

11/4/2015 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 San Antonio Spurs/Washington Wizards* Under 200½ -110
11/4/2015 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers* Under 204 -110
11/4/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Brooklyn Nets* Under 93½ -110 vs Atlanta Hawks
11/4/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Milwaukee Bucks* Over 103 -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
11/4/2015 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 517 Sacramento Kings* +9 -110 vs Phoenix Suns

 

[hugh613]

The first two fall under the "system" (so named because I've yet to come up with a catchy nickname for it, although I'm thinking something with "super duper" in the title...) The pace the Wizards have been playing at does give me a bit of pause but, if you've been watching the Wizards boxscores closely, that offense is wildly inconsistent (score 4 points in 4 minutes, score 20 points the next 5 minutes). And based off an article I read over at the "other" site, the Spurs are having trouble adjusting their offensive sets to accommodate Lamarcus Aldridge, so not expecting Popovich to indulge Washington in this one. Pace be damned in the Celtics/Pacers game, as we've got the #25 and #26 ranked teams in terms of offensive efficiency (pace doesn't mean a whole lot unless you have the types of players that can flourish under a fast paced system). And note to Brad Stevens, a front court of Jae Crowder, David Lee and Tyler Zeller scares no one. As for the three "regular" plays, Nets the second lowest scoring team in the league at 90.5, the second lowest pace at 95.8, haven't crossed the 80 shot plateau in any of their last three games, and up against a Hawks team that's been playing solid defensively since the start of the preseason. Sixers commitment to defense non-existent, while the Bucks offense should get a significant boost with the return of Jabari Parker. As for the Kings, don't know that the Suns are 9 points better than anyone, to be honest. Think Sacramento should be able to keep this one close.

 

[nbafan88]

I've said this before, but not sure if on here....but have you ever noticed that when a favorite is losing at halftime and their 2h line is more than the full game line, the dog covers the 2h line a vast majority of the time. It's uncanny.

bol tonight. I don't know how the wiz stop the Spurs offense. Leonard/Aldridge/Duncan might be the best front court ever

 

[hugh613]

I've said this before, but not sure if on here....but have you ever noticed that when a favorite is losing at halftime and their 2h line is more than the full game line, the dog covers the 2h line a vast majority of the time. It's uncanny.

bol tonight. I don't know how the wiz stop the Spurs offense. Leonard/Aldridge/Duncan might be the best front court ever

You mean like the Cavs/Sixers game the other night? As for best frontcourt, meh... Maybe modern day, but think Bird/McHale/Parrish might have something to say about that.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/4/2015 2:45 PM European Cup Soccer 60 Dinamo Zagreb (UCL)/Olympiakos (UCL)* Over 2½ -116
*Yeah, yeah, I know it's the NBA Forum. Don't ask...

 

[Paulie The Vig]

I've said this before, but not sure if on here....but have you ever noticed that when a favorite is losing at halftime and their 2h line is more than the full game line, the dog covers the 2h line a vast majority of the time. It's uncanny.

bol tonight. I don't know how the wiz stop the Spurs offense. Leonard/Aldridge/Duncan might be the best front court ever

This is also true in the NFL

 

[Paulie The Vig]

BOL hugh I played Under Boston/Indy the 1st half 99 and the game 206 The only thing that Bothers me but it's so early both teams perimeter defense is terrible and bith are avg more 3 pt attemps then the league avg just hope they don't start dropping tonight. I can understand the steam to the Over but I'm with ya. Also played Utah and done. Like to go sleep for two weeks wake up to a little more data and feel more comforable. Have to say it your the best:shake:

 

[nbafan88]

You mean like the Cavs/Sixers game the other night? As for best frontcourt, meh... Maybe modern day, but think Bird/McHale/Parrish might have something to say about that.

no that 2h spread was less than the FG line... the 2h spread was 11 and the full game spread was 12.5


yesterday's games had a bunch

 

[Paulie The Vig]

serious hugh I've used that for years in the NFL which you don't see it that often anymore but it's a clear sign to take the Dog. Have to starting tracking this in the NBA.

More Tracking:rofl:

 

[hugh613]

To be honest, I've never seen that theory regarding the 2H before. A way of goading bettors into re-upping on the favourite? About the only 2H trend I've noticed is that say the HT score is roughly half the game total, if the 2H total comes in way below (say 97.5 instead of 100, it's a sure fire sign to take the under, and vice versa). I actually did get pretty good at predicting the 2H line using the spreadsheet I made last season, but didn't really seem to translate to anymore wins than usual.

And all this talk of "systems" reminds me of a thread I saw at Covers years ago where the poster said if the Duke basketball team was playing a team whose primary color was red (Maryland, NC State, Wisconsin, etc...), bet against Duke. LOL...

As for tonight, not thrilled that just about every line has moved against me, but it is what it is.

Thanks and good discussion guys.

And Olympiakos for the win. Opa! : )

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Okay Houston got big win the other night are they ready to Roll a little, big number but Orl coming off a big game
Think I might lay it. Opinion?

 

[hugh613]

Okay Houston got big win the other night are they ready to Roll a little, big number but Orl coming off a big game
Think I might lay it. Opinion?

No real opinion on a side. Orlando's got the athleticism to hang with Houston, and the Rockets are kind of being exposed right now with Harden not playing to his usual standards. Plus, I think there's a school of thought that doesn't believe the Harden/Lawson experiment is going to work - that might be a little bit of what we're witnessing in the early going. Still, 9 seems like a pretty bold statement from the books and, like you said, definite letdown spot for the Magic.

Good luck Paulie and thanks for your continued input.

 

[JBsNuggets]

With you on Hawks under, 2nd leg of b2b which means more splitter and Schroeder less Teague and Korver playing the worst 3 ball team in the NBA. Is your Sacramento play based on them getting drilled by Memphis? Or a boogie cousins being out angle?

 

[hugh613]

Hey JB. To be honest, that was just more me thinking that the Suns aren't 9 points better than anyone - no real in depth analysis I'm on my part I'm afraid. The one thing I would say is that the Kings were in a pretty bad spot last night with the Grizzlies having been humiliated by the Warriors the night before, so while shooting sub 40% obviously isn't good, it was still the Grizzlies. Had they shot 39% against the T-Wolves or Lakers, that would be a different story altogether.

Probably not a long term recipe for success to take points if you don't think the team can also win SU, but just think this line's inflated by a good 4 to 5 points on account of Cousins being out.

Good luck tonight!

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Under 1st half Indy/Boston bet the early number because I had a doc's appt 97 and still got there. Also got them under for the game and I took under 107 for the 2nd half that 107 to me is a little crazy but I've been around long enough not to under estimate the book. I see I put 99 on my previous post please excuse the typo that was the number at the time of my post.

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Hey JB. To be honest, that was just more me thinking that the Suns aren't 9 points better than anyone - no real in depth analysis I'm on my part I'm afraid. The one thing I would say is that the Kings were in a pretty bad spot last night with the Grizzlies having been humiliated by the Warriors the night before, so while shooting sub 40% obviously isn't good, it was still the Grizzlies. Had they shot 39% against the T-Wolves or Lakers, that would be a different story altogether.

Probably not a long term recipe for success to take points if you don't think the team can also win SU, but just think this line's inflated by a good 4 to 5 points on account of Cousins being out.

Good luck tonight!

I just about live by this rule.

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Excuse me mistake. It's been a long one have a good night.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 22-25-1, -5.40

Thursday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SGK00Q7xx-s" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

11/5/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Oklahoma City Thunder/Chicago Bulls* Over 208½ -110
11/5/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Miami Heat* -3½ -110 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
11/5/2015 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Miami Heat* Over 99½ -110 vs Minnesota Timberwolves

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/5/2015 1:00 PM European Cup Soccer 116 Rapid Vienna (UEFA-Europa)/Viktoria Plzen (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -121
11/5/2015 1:00 PM European Cup Soccer 134 Legia Warsaw (UEFA-Europa)/FC Brugge (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -127
11/5/2015 3:05 PM European Cup Soccer 146 Schalke 04 (UEFA-Europa)/Sparta Prague (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -118
*Don't ask why I'm posting these in the NBA Forum. I just am...

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Adding:

11/5/2015 1:00 PM European Cup Soccer 116 Rapid Vienna (UEFA-Europa)/Viktoria Plzen (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -121
11/5/2015 1:00 PM European Cup Soccer 134 Legia Warsaw (UEFA-Europa)/FC Brugge (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -127
11/5/2015 3:05 PM European Cup Soccer 146 Schalke 04 (UEFA-Europa)/Sparta Prague (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -118
*Don't ask why I'm posting these in the NBA Forum. I just am...

Because actually you earned the right to do just about anything you want. It Also make's you seem worldly