not to early for week 13 discussion right?

nbafan88 said:
the jets suck, their wins have been flukes imo... they need to have a better reason to start geno other than him being the guy they invested in... he's awful... and simms is the better option imo rfu

will definitely be on the steelers, the ravens offensive line is still not where it needs to be to have success running the ball... the ravens are usually the way i go when they are at home but the games are virtually always decided by a fg in this matchup... dont see why it would be any different this time around...
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jets certainly nothing special, not sure if id go as far to call their wins flukes, they a solid club when they can run the ball...phins are tailor made for them imo, geno really shouldnt have to throw a pass as i expect jets to rush for 150+ and the d to handle the rest..

balty is as confusing a team to me as anyone, im with d-wow here i think you just tease steelers and be done with it cause i dont see much chance this isnt close..
 
what everyone think about the cincy/sd game? really hard not to like cincy at plus anything, dont think chargers will be able to play keep away offense vs cincy d that in the top 10 in getting teams off the field on 3rd down, dont think sd will be able to keep rivers as clean as last week either.. on the other side chargers defense is so bad that i think cincy will have their way.. no way do i make this less than cincy -4 on a neutral field and i cant imagine chargers home field is even worth 3 points so guess i see value in cincy ml, def like them teased to +7.5..
 
Cowboys 4-9 ATS last 13 games as a home fave.

Cowboys 6-10 ATS last 16 games as a 8+ home fave.

Raiders 9-7 ATS last 16 games as an 8+ road dog.
 
The jets wins are flukes. Idk how the hell this team has 5 wins. The secondary is blah. The offense is hideous. They are treating geno like a child with the limited plays they are allowing him to make trying. This type of football isn't going to get you very far in today's league IMO. Let geno
learn by making mistakes. They aren't going anywhere this year anyway so use these games as a teaching tool for geno. I personally think Simms would do better and deserves a shot to prove himself
 
emkee said:
Cowboys 4-9 ATS last 13 games as a home fave.

Cowboys 6-10 ATS last 16 games as a 8+ home fave.

Raiders 9-7 ATS last 16 games as an 8+ road dog.
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doesnt the dog in general hit something stupid like 70% in dal games?
 
I'm going to have to take a flier on romo scoring more than two passing TDs. He should be able to throw for 300 easily.
 
nbafan88 said:
The jets wins are flukes. Idk how the hell this team has 5 wins. The secondary is blah. The offense is hideous. They are treating geno like a child with the limited plays they are allowing him to make trying. This type of football isn't going to get you very far in today's league IMO. Let geno
learn by making mistakes. They aren't going anywhere year anyway so use these games as a teaching tool for geno. I personally think Simms is the better option.
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geno life gonna be a lot easier this week with the support of a beast run gm.. i think he will look good if they give him a game plan like they did against the falcons with some early play fakes and get him out on the edge with easy defined reads.. if they dont take it to the fish i will feel like i was about as wrong about any gm as i been all year... the secondary suspect for sure but mia has no run gm whats-so-ever and rex will be able to dial up the pressure against that patchwork oline. the front 7 should dominate and the offense should pound them into submission ..
 
Kind of glad the Raiders lost in last minute fashion to Fitz and the Titans on Sunday, because if they had won, a lot of the conversation yesterday and today would have been about Matt McGloin. An underdog story, but this kid is playing very very well. Doesn't have much of a team around him, but the public being what they are...I see money coming in on Dallas and I'm probably pouncing on Raiders +9.5. Especially if that line doesn't budge.

Liking GB +6. Must-win for both and it's a divisional game, so the game should be played close. Flynn may have tanked elsewhere, but in McCarthy's system, he just fits. GB still has James Jones and of course Jordy and despite Lions very stout front line, Lacy still can provide a little mix to get the passing game really rolling. Clay needs to show up though.

Loved B'more at -2.5. At -3, I still do, but not as confident. These matchups are always slugfests and for that, I give the edge to the better D and home team. Both go to Baltimore. Big Ben is great and I like their offense more than the Ravens', but B'more can score so it comes down to those two factors for me as the decisive factors.
 
SerfCap said:
Kind of glad the Raiders lost in last minute fashion to Fitz and the Titans on Sunday, because if they had won, a lot of the conversation yesterday and today would have been about Matt McGloin. An underdog story, but this kid is playing very very well. Doesn't have much of a team around him, but the public being what they are...I see money coming in on Dallas and I'm probably pouncing on Raiders +9.5. Especially if that line doesn't budge.

Liking GB +6. Must-win for both and it's a divisional game, so the game should be played close. Flynn may have tanked elsewhere, but in McCarthy's system, he just fits. GB still has James Jones and of course Jordy and despite Lions very stout front line, Lacy still can provide a little mix to get the passing game really rolling. Clay needs to show up though.

Loved B'more at -2.5. At -3, I still do, but not as confident. These matchups are always slugfests and for that, I give the edge to the better D and home team. Both go to Baltimore. Big Ben is great and I like their offense more than the Ravens', but B'more can score so it comes down to those two factors for me as the decisive factors.
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Good analysis. It's going to be a fun Thursday slate with all 3 games right around key numbers. The Raiders have value at 10. The Packers have (probably) have value at 7. The fav or dog has value at night pending on how that number moves.

I assume books will not move off the 3 and instead will move the juice. I can see the other two games getting to 10 and 7, though.
 
nbafan88 said:
The jets wins are flukes. Idk how the hell this team has 5 wins. The secondary is blah. The offense is hideous. They are treating geno like a child with the limited plays they are allowing him to make trying. This type of football isn't going to get you very far in today's league IMO. Let geno
learn by making mistakes. They aren't going anywhere this year anyway so use these games as a teaching tool for geno. I personally think Simms would do better and deserves a shot to prove himself
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Jets run D is stout, but they have serious concerns at the safety positions. Tannehill should have a good day passing. I also like that Lamar Miller will command more snaps with Thomas out this week. Hopefully they utilize him in the short passing game to compensate for their lack of run game this week.
 
Anyone have an argument against Bears/Vikings over?

Looks like free money..
 
IS PEYTON MANNING REALLY A BAD COLD-WEATHER QUARTERBACK?
ARTICLES, NFL by PJ on NOVEMBER 26, 2013


Following Monday night’s collapse against the Patriots, Peyton Manning’s ability (or inability at that) to perform in cold weather has been a very hot topic among fans and analysts. Everybody seems to be throwing around different stats to back their own opinions, motivating us to look back in our database to find a betting market perspective.


When executing analysis like this, we always prefer using against the spread (ATS) records as a measure of how a team, or player in this instance, performs because point spreads include a level of “expectation” that straight-up wins and losses do not.


Since Monday’s game concluded, there has been a theme of cold weather vs. high winds used to determine whether Manning truly experiences a decline in bad weather.


Using our Bet Labs data analysis software, we created a system to test each of these situations and found some interesting results.


Since 2003, Manning has not played up to his expected level of performance in cold weather by posting a 1-5 (16.7%) record ATS. For the purposes of the analysis, we defined cold weather as any game with a kickoff temperature of 32 degrees Fahrenheit and below. On the other hand, Tom Brady’s 16-10 (61.5%) ATS record in cold weather games confirms what most of us already thought regarding his level of performance in below-freezing temperatures.


With the cold weather debate settled, we moved on to wind speed at kickoff to see if the King of Flutterballs really struggles when the wind kicks up. When creating this system, we used wind speeds of 15 mph and higher as our definition of “high winds”.


Surprisingly, Monday night’s game was the first time since 2003 that Manning did not cover the spread in high winds. In fact, Manning is 4-2 ATS since the start of the ’03 season in these games and his return on investment (ROI) of 30.9% for anyone betting on each of these games is actually higher than Brady’s ROI of 9.3%. In full disclosure, Brady has a much bigger sample and a very respectable 15-12 ATS record in windy games.
 
Steelers are the first team to play a Thursday night ROAD game after an AWAY game the prior week since TNF games began...

Road teams on Thursday nights don't fare well to begin with I don't think, so this has to be the double whammy.

Was on Pitt at first galnce, leaning Balt now.
 
Mo said:
Not sure what happened yesterday, but Colts cover easily. Steelers and Ravens should be a tight game. Bengals cover also
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I'm not sure why the Colts cover 'easily'. The Colts have been extremely fortunate to have defeated the Titans the last three matches, eventually the outcome is going to match how the play has gone. I think when matchups are this close together, it really favors the team that lost the first game.

Titans coming off a win that will build confidence and cohesion, playing to maintain their 6th seed and the Colts off yet another beatdown.
 
Not sure I like Oakland enough to play them, as this line does seem to beg for Raider money, but this fact alone would keep me off Dallas tomorrow:

Cowboys are 2-9 ATS laying 7 or more under Mrs. Garrett.
 
Can't play the spread there. Deflating loss for the Raiders, road team on a Thursday. I can't argue against some aspects of playing the Raiders though, Dallas off a 'marquee win' in the media's eyes is great for the Raiders. I think the best way to go about it is Dallas -2 in a tease.
 
I actually was looking for Dallas to have a history of shitting the bed after winning outright as a dog the previous week MCG. But I went back and looked back five years or so and the results were muddled. There's enough to keep me off Dallas and like you said - it would be awfully tough to play Oakland here.

The teaser of the week will certainly be Lions/Cowboys and I'm always leery of those kind of plays..... Good luck if you bet it.
 
Just shoot me but I'm liking Detroit more and more. I don't think Green Bay will be able to move on them and I see the Lions scoring all day. I also believe it's easy to put too much stock in Flynn's comeback. The Vikings have choked games like that for years, if anything it should almost be expected.
 
I hate all three of these games tomorrow from a betting perspective, though I think the under in DET will get my money. Also may get involved with the Stillers.

Happy Thanksgiving bro. Hope you crush em.
 
I feel like I've seen this show before. Matt Flynn stinks, but he plays well in the system for whatever reason. GB finally looked good after Flynn was inserted into last week's game. I just can't trust Detroit with my money under any circumstances right now - especially as a TD favorite. The have talent but consistently underachieve. Think we see a close game with two teams desperate for a win. Will probably throw GB in a teaser with Pitt. GB ML also has some value IMO as this is anybody's ball game and I'm sure Det is a popular teaser partner for the average holiday bettor.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
I'm not sure why the Colts cover 'easily'. The Colts have been extremely fortunate to have defeated the Titans the last three matches, eventually the outcome is going to match how the play has gone. I think when matchups are this close together, it really favors the team that lost the first game.

Titans coming off a win that will build confidence and cohesion, playing to maintain their 6th seed and the Colts off yet another beatdown.
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Fitzpatrick is playing much better than luck as well...it hasn't been talked about a ton because they've stolen a couple wins but they have really struggled without Wayne..they just aren't the same offense without him..
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Fitzpatrick is playing much better than luck as well...it hasn't been talked about a ton because they've stolen a couple wins but they have really struggled without Wayne..they just aren't the same offense without him..
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I think it may be a bit much expecting Fitz to win b2b road games. Situational spot seems to favor the Colts coming home off a terrible road loss, but I could see this being a game that is settled by less than a fg.
 
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MusicCityGambler said:
Just shoot me but I'm liking Detroit more and more. I don't think Green Bay will be able to move on them and I see the Lions scoring all day. I also believe it's easy to put too much stock in Flynn's comeback. The Vikings have choked games like that for years, if anything it should almost be expected.
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Lions team total o27.5 may be your best play if you feel that way. It is awful high, and my biggest concern would be GB running clock and trying to keep it a ball control type game. Stafford throwing a million picks would be a close second.
 
Cowboys can be had for -7-128 @ 5dimes right now. I wish Sean lee was in but I think this could be a statement game for the Boys.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think it may be a bit much expecting Fitz to win b2b road games, let alone beat Indy twice. Situational spot seems to favor the Colts coming home off a terrible road loss, but I could see this being a game that is settled by less than a fg.
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Tenny didn't beat Indy first game they gave the game away...
 
scdoggy said:
I hate all three of these games tomorrow from a betting perspective, though I think the under in DET will get my money. Also may get involved with the Stillers.

Happy Thanksgiving bro. Hope you crush em.
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i considered the under in det, more so 1st half than game but gotta say it seems every year i want to play this under and every year i regret it about 6 minutes into the gm.. either im delusional or turkey day is typically a squares wet dream as it seems the fav and over hit on the det and dal games almost every year..
 
2daBank said:
i considered the under in det, more so 1st half than game but gotta say it seems every year i want to play this under and every year i regret it about 6 minutes into the gm.. either im delusional or turkey day is typically a squares wet dream as it seems the fav and over hit on the det and dal games almost every year..
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Its been said that books like to give away some gifts over the holidays. Keeps people betting over the weekend. I wouldn't be afraid to be on the public side
 
nbafan88 said:
Last week was a statement game though
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Um, they won a divisional game otr.... As 3 pt dogs I don't think they were expected to blow out NYG. I'm not a fan of playing dogs I don't think will win su so I won't be on the Raiders. Oak beat the Texans, Jags, Steelers and SD- I put Dallas much higher than the first 3 teams and also above SD. IMO if you are a fan of Oak keeping it close, than the over is the much better wager
 
Just meant that the cowboys are coming off a pretty good high. I'm going to be on a Dez player prop once 5D puts them up. During the bye week the coaches made it a point of emphasis to get him involved more and the raiders won't be able to cover him. He should get 100 yards
 
The best thing about 5D is that you could sell points with all these alternate spreads. Love that... Hell you have different options on team totals too
 
Packers OL Josh Sitton rips Jim Schwartz, calls Lions D 'scumbags'
Sometimes NFL players decide to take their filters off and say what they really think and one of those times was Tuesday when Packers offensive lineman Josh Sitton went on radio in Milwaukee and called the Lions 'scumbags.'


During an interview with WSSP-AM, Sitton didn't hold anything back as he took jabs at the Lions defense, the Lions defensive coordinator and even Lions coach Jim Schwartz. It all started when Sitton was asked if he thought the Detroit defense would try and take out Aaron Rodgers if Rodgers were to suit up and play on Thursday. Rodgers isn't expected to play.


"Absolutely. They go after quarterbacks, their entire defense takes cheap shots all the time. That's what they do, that's who they are," Sitton said. "They're a bunch of dirtbags or scumbags. That's just how they play. That's how they're coached."


Sitton didn't stop there either, he also had some choice words for Schwartz, defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and even Lions defensive line coach Kris Kocurek.


"That starts with their frickin' coach. That starts with their head coach, Schwartz. He's a dick, too," Sitton said. "I wouldn't want to play for him. It starts with him and their D-coordinator and their D-line coach. They're all just scumbags and so are the D-line."


The Lions defensive line is made up of starters Ndamukong Suh Nick Fairley, Willie Young, three guys Sitton, the Packers starting left guard, will see a lot of on Thursday


Complaining about the Lions defense has been a popular thing to do this month. In mid-November, Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall said that the Lions defense plays 'borderline illegal.' Marshall also added that their style of play is 'kind of disgusting.'
 
nbafan88 said:
Its been said that books like to give away some gifts over the holidays. Keeps people betting over the weekend. I wouldn't be afraid to be on the public side
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feels like chalk and over come in a ton on this day for sure.. im content with the number i got on the oak/dal over and my teasers with dal and pit..no interest in backing flynn and certainly not trying to lay the points with lions dysfunctional asses... really been working on what d-wow says every thu "would you play if it was on sunday?" and the answer in the pack/det gm is a resounding no..

any props that caught your eye?
 
I don't see why you guys think Flynn is so bad? It's not like he's up against a great defense. I definitely lean on taking the points with that big line move. No way in hell I'm laying the TD with the lions
 
Megatron's 861 receiving yards over his last five games are a single-season NFL record across a five-week span. Mega's last three lines against Packers DC Dom Capers' defense: 11-244-1; 5-143-1; 10-118.
 
Green Bay has been particularly leaky in run defense of late, boding well for Reggie Bush following his 100 total-yard Week 12 performance against Tampa Bay's top-nine run defense. Over the past four weeks, the Packers have been gashed by Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Andre Brown, and Adrian Peterson/Toby Gerhart for a combined 583 yards on 107 carries (5.45 YPC). With 311 yards on his own last 62 attempts (5.02 YPC), Bush is running at a highly efficient clip with a blowup game in sight
 
I remember reading several weeks ago that Rodgers is worth around 4 points, if not more, for the spread. If that's the case, if he was playing, are Lions still favored by a FGish? And with Flynn knowing this offense, is it still a 4 point drop? Players talked about last week when Flynn came in, they could run their normal offense, including no huddle. Players weren't ready for that and were gassed, hadn't done that in several weeks. Now with a "full" week to prepare, I have to lean towards taking the points, especially throwing in the Lions history, them being dumbasses, and Schwartz coaching.
 
And consider this is an elimination game of sorts for the Packers. Still a lot of football left to be played, but still.
 
I just played a lotto ticket type prop..... Pettigrew o3.5 rec+720. Been getting targeted 6+ at home and has had 3 rec every game 4 games straight. Prop would have hit 50% last 8 games
 
From http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/84020/being-thankful-for-the-nfl

5. The Matt McGloin era: Sometimes, though, being wrong is fun, too. I thought McGloin was basically Oakland's way of throwing in the towel on an occasionally competitive 2013 in an attempt to refocus its efforts on tanking for a high pick in the 2014 draft. Then again, I thought that about Terrelle Pryor, too, and I'm now running 0-for-2 on Oakland quarterback choices this year. Just as Pryor was surprisingly impressive before suffering an injury, McGloin has now exhibited shocking coherency during his first two professional starts. He's only completing 55.7 percent of his passes, but McGloin has averaged nearly seven yards per attempt, thrown four touchdowns against one pick, and been sacked less frequently than Stafford (although he doesn't qualify to lead in any rate statistics because he has played in only three games).
The truly interesting thing about McGloin is what his success suggests about young quarterbacks. If McGloin can put together a competent half-season for the Raiders, he would be one of the first undrafted free agents in the history of the league to pull that off during a true rookie campaign. And like Tampa Bay third-rounder Mike Glennon, McGloin's success in the pros has been either consistent with or better than his level of play against much inferior competition at the college level. Even as Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin struggle through difficult second years as starters, the success of guys like Glennon and McGloin show us that the level of play from college quarterbacks is higher than it has ever been before. And, likewise, that suggests teams should be more aggressive about moving on from expensive, middling veterans to go for younger options. If McGloin throws four interceptions against the Cowboys … just pretend you imagined this paragraph in a tryptophan-induced dream.
6. Oakland's famous defense: Oakland's defense isn't as bad as you think. It's 23rd in DVOA and 20th in points allowed per game, but those numbers are inflated by two ugly performances against the Broncos and Eagles; the Raiders have allowed 24 points or fewer in each of their nine other games. That's not to say the awful games don't matter, but Oakland's defense has given the team a chance to be competitive in the vast majority of its matchups. That's a display of competency, if not brilliance.
What's even better is that Oakland's defense is full of "I know that guy!" and "Didn't he used to play for … " guys, which is perfect for watching Thanksgiving football with the members of your family who aren't a touch obsessive about football. Watch as your uncle finds out the Raiders now have Charles Woodson; it's your decision whether to tell him Woodson isn't any good anymore. Tracy Porter! Didn't he win a Super Bowl a few years ago? Sure did, gramps. Everyone has a Cowboys fan and a Bears fan in the family, so watch how amazed they are when Mike Jenkins, Kevin Burnett, and Nick Roach are chasing after a Tony Romo fumble. In fact, speaking of …
 
NittanyLionInMexico said:
Who is a troll?
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how that saying go, if you cant pick out the sucker at the table it probably you..might as well take your act back to sbr where they let trolls ruin good threads, this place not for you as everyone here is here to contribute to this thing we love to do, nobody has any interest in the garbage you spew..
 
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