NLCS/ALCS

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

Series Wagers 1-1 (-87$) -- way too much stock in LAA, i fucked up there
Sides/Totals 10-7 (+67$)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Rays Series +120 (130/156)
HEDGE: Bosox Series -160 (208/130)

PHILLS TO WIN THE WS +170 (130/221)

BoSox -1, -108, (86.80/80)---- PUSH

TB -1, -102 (81.60/80)

TB RL +140 (40/56)

LAD -1, -107 (64/60)

Phills -131 (65.50/50)<o></o>

[FONT=&quot]Phills/LAD 1<sup>st</sup> 5 Under 4 (-120) (100/83)[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

Phills/LAD Under 7.5 (50/45)
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[FONT=&quot]TB ML -118 (80/67)[/FONT]
[/FONT]
Bosox -1, -134 (80/60)

Bosox +110 RL (50/55)

LAD -1, -135 (108/80)
<o></o>[FONT=&quot]
TB ML -117 [/FONT][FONT=&quot](80/68)[/FONT]

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

TB-
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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style>[FONT=&quot]Rays pen at Home 2.93 ERA, vs Boston road pen ERA @ 4.35)[/FONT]

I was worried about the lack of veterans that TB had, especially in their pitching rotation, and joel maddons lack of playoff experience going up against ozzie, , but it didn’t matter.
IMO that was the perfect matchup to get their confidence up, and get a playoff series win under their belt, against a banged-up/fatigued CWS team, giving them momentum and realizing that if they play up to their potential they have a great shot to win this thing.

The butterflies are gone, the jitters are gone, its time to play baseball. Dont give me that "the sox have experience" argument, because these youngins showed no signs of jitters/playing tight.... the teams that did (LAA and cubs) were bounced out last round
They’ve dominated the season series this year.
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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style>[FONT=&quot]TB is 8-1 against the sox in the last 9 at home, and won 10 of 18 overall this year.)[/FONT]

<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDiddy%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDiddy%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CDiddy%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

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oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

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ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> This is a redsox team, that you can say what you want, I was very un-impressed with. Papi and pedroia were both non-factors, and Jason bay cannot continue to carry the team on his back offensively all by himself.
A lot will disagree with me here, but I think this matchup actually doesn’t differ much from the matchup with CWS. Boston knows TB has an advantage in pitching, defense, and speed, and that the only way theyre going to win this series is with the longball/HR’s (which is how they beat LA for the most part)

[FONT=&quot]I also like that they over-used lester and now we get to see a still-ailing, banged up beckett in game 2.[/FONT]

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

Trends:

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Rays are 41-11 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 2-5 in Matsuzakas last 7 starts vs. Rays.[/FONT]

Phills Game 1-

Well im all typed out lol so ill keep it short.

Game 1 of the NLCS, i see a pitching duel. I see each team trying to play conservatively and focus on not making any key mistakes. Both teams "ace" are on the mound, and both SP's have been lights out this second half of the season.
Neither SP gives up many extra base hits or HR's and is very good in that department

Derek lowe's "lowball" pitching style has given a lot of teams trouble, the guy gets a LOT of ground balls and rarely ever gives up extra base hits and almost never HR's.
The style is very tough to hit and its a style that can give the phills batter some trouble.

Cole has been dominant throughout the year, and he showed he's even better in the playoffs. He was excellent agains tthe screwers giving up only 2 hits in 8 innings, and k'ing 9. he shouldve closed the game for the CG but manuel chose not to and almost blew it.
I think the way to settle down the red-hot dodger bats, is to really be aggressive and attack the strike zone, and thats exactly what cole does.

The philly bats really did not impress me last series, hitting .250 and looking very inconsistent at times. In game 1 it shouldnt matter as cole will put them in the position to win, and they will, in a tight one

4-2 is my prediction. as you can see below, both SP has had success agaisnt the opposing team...

Lowe is 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in six playoff appearances... and 4-0
with a 2.58 ERA in his last six outings against the phills
</pre> Hamels has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last 11 starts overall... and in 2 starts against LA this year gave up 2 ER and 2 ER... in 7 IP in both.

Satyr · Oct 9, 2008

Good stuff Cap

I'm sitting out Game 1 in NLCS

GL :cheers:

Retburj13 · Oct 9, 2008

how did I know you'd be against my Sox.....again! lol

illow:

no worries man...just can't go against my team although this will be a great series that I see going at least 6 games.

Liking LAD in NLCS.....think they are playin with lots of confidence, solid SP and hittng at the right time..

Good health this round bro..:cheers:

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

satyr- prolly not a bad idea, enjoy the game bro and GL on game 2:cheers:

ret- :36_11_6:

fading your teams really has not fared me well these last couple months!
on my 2 big bets going agianst them, im 0-2 with jets losing to pats and bosox winning the series last round

we do agree on something though! i like LAD to win the series too. didnt play it, because i think this is going to be a very tight series and will probably come down to game 7. too close to call IMO, but i lean that way!
played phills in game 1 but i do like LAD to win game 2......

GL bro:cheers:

3rd & Long · Oct 9, 2008

Love those Rays, agree with the writeup.

Go Phillies please - if the town is going to riot over a championship I'd prefer it to be the Phils.

SportsNut · Oct 9, 2008

GL Cap.

Looks like I am expecting a TB vs Philly WS in 2008 . :cheers:

cogenman · Oct 9, 2008

Good luck cap. Hopefully the hometown folks can help the Phillies and Rays to victory.

tigercub · Oct 9, 2008

gl with philly. like them to win tonight and the series.

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

thanks fellas! hope you all have success this round as well

LAD/phills series i have a very slight lean to LAD, but ive really been back and forth on this one. i cant fault anyone for liking the phills, cant fault anyone for liking LAD.

this is the most evenly matched series we will probably see this postseason.... should be a great one.... really tough to have a strong lean either way.
i think everyone can agree it will go 6, if not 7 games.... will enjoy watching this one.

MusicCityGambler · Oct 9, 2008

SportsNut said:
GL Cap.

Looks like I am expecting a TB vs Philly WS in 2008 . :cheers:

It's pretty amazing.When I was at ST in Clearwater, I saw the Phillies take on the Rays. I talked with a Rays fan and told him to get ready for the Phillies-Rays WS. Now it might actually happen.

GL Cap.

Smokedawg · Oct 9, 2008

SportsNut said:
GL Cap.

Looks like I am expecting a TB vs Philly WS in 2008 . :cheers:

Sounds good to me

:cheers:

3rd & Long · Oct 9, 2008

Smokedawg said:
Sounds good to me

:cheers:

But not to Fox and MLB :36_11_6:

Smokedawg · Oct 9, 2008

3rd & Long said:
But not to Fox and MLB :36_11_6:

Thank god (hopefully...) its not the NBA and the umpires wont feel the same way

CapTwo · Oct 9, 2008

well PHILLS FANS.... 3rd, C$$$$$, MCG, SMOKEdawggggg......

yall brought some good luck today in this thread- so i have to thank you

TB ML tomororw fellas, get up on it!!! :cheers:

(this publidc service anouncment was brought to you by tanqueray gin)

Yanks27Sox9 · Oct 10, 2008

great game one plays, Cap :cheers:

helluva day

CapTwo · Oct 10, 2008

thanks big yanks!

was lucky, almost even hit the score on the head.... was off by a run.

like it was stated, when lowe has that sinker ball going he is VERY tough to hit. was lucky that he hung one and left it up in the zone in the 6th, and utley pounced on it for the equalizer :cheers:

i added TB -117 last night for a chunk, just not sure if i want to add some there....

billingsley and the dodgers are getting a very strong look from me as well.
this is how i wanted it to play out.... hamels wins game one, then play LAD and bills in game 2. just gotta research some trends/#'s/stats

right now i have a splitting headache.
i apologize to everyone if i was a drunk shithead in the in-games last night LOL....
i hadnt drank since saturday and yeah i realized your tolerance goes down...
i read the last couple pages of the ingame and ashamed to read anymore....

CapTwo · Oct 10, 2008

no play on the phills game today, had a slight lean to LAD but now it kind of seems like philly has the motivational edge

i know its not the best reason, but i think manuels mother passing really gives philly reason to go out there and win for charlie.

myers outdueled bills last time he came to citzens bank and think if he can keep the ball in the park tonight, and not go back to his old ways of leaving the ball up in the zone against a power-hitting lineup that LA has, phills can edge out a close one tonight

the best play is the one you dont make! already on tampa and looking to posibly add a little more on them later....

HereWeGo · Oct 10, 2008

GL on the Baby Rays tonight Cap....may jump on it with you

Satyr · Oct 10, 2008

GL Cap

let's cash the Rays

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

herewego/satyr, thanks guys

even though im holding a rays series ticket i dont see them winnign tomorrow, already getting a play down on johnny lester (aka the josh beckett of 2008, [since the real beckett has taken this postseason off, lol]

TB looks just a little overmatched and outclassed. i thought the big advantage TB has was in the pen but no longer feel that way... both team has seen so much of the other they have deep scouting reports and knows each pitchers flaws/strengths to a T.
except for papelbon. he has no flaws. he's just filthy. hes like a supernatural creature. and even better in the postseason dont excpect to get anything off him.

im not sold that TB has enough RHP depth in the pen
wheeler, who normally closes, pitched 3+ innings on sat. cant over-use him.
didnt understand why maddon didnt take him out after 2.

bradford-the sox showed they are not fooled by his tricky submarine delivery/lowball pitching style, he gave up 4 hits in 1.1 IP the other day.
bradford an excellent postseason reliever but the deceptive style is hittable if youve seen enough of it, and they have. he was an O last year too... AL east.

pedroia hits him very well career and on saturday everyone else did too, he was lucky to only give up one run, couple of big k's.

price was solid in his first inning of postseason relief, but gave up a hit and a walk, and w/ no postseason experience u have to wonder how the youngin is going to perform at fenway in a tight game w/ pressure on him, in his rookie year.
howell and miller i trust, but theyre both lefties.

sox have a healthy and rested papelbon, delcarmen and okajima all have been good..... only lopez has been hittable and masterson to give up something once in awhile. byrd available as well there

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

joel maddon is a good manager dont get me wrong but the lack of experience is going to bite him in the ass, hes outclassed by francona.

it already almost fucked us in game 2, as he was stupid enough to pitch to bay with a man on 3rd and 2 down in the 8th, and ended up throwing a wild pitch trying to pitch around him, when it would have been a lot easier to just intentionally walk him with a base open at first.
that was the run that forced extras. that was dumb, and almost cost em.

defense i thought TB had a slight advantage in but boston has proved to me that theyre both equally good, and 2 of the best defensive teams in the mlb.

so if defense and pens are about even, and manager advantage = sox
that leaves:

offense- advantage sox.
experience- sox
home field/cowbells- TB
starting pitching- slight to sox
speed on basepaths - TB

will give it some more tomorrow. if anyone has any thoughts theyre mcuh appreciated. thanks and GL fellas

Satyr · Oct 13, 2008

Jon Lester is the absolute Cy Young of the 2008 season. AL, NL, you name it. This guy OWNS. I know some people will say his image of an unbeatable pitcher is not spot on and as any other SP he can let in runs (and we remember the games against the Jays not long ago, especially in Toronto where he got blasted), but he has shown probably more consistency and class than any other pitcher in the majors throughout the 2008.

Plus, he's still the feel good story (rightfully so) a true hero of the game and I love this guy and I barely have any bias left nowadays towards players or teams.

And the Red Sox are the most clutch team in the playoffs, hands down. However, the downgrades this team has suffered this year compared to their last season's championship tenure are significant.

Lowell is out, JD Drew is bruised but playing, Ortiz is not himself, he talked about it, said his hands are not as quick right now plus his ankles and wrists are both injured, and there's no Manny watching his back any more. The area the Red Sox are the best team left in the majors right now if you ask me is defense. They rarely make game changing errors (if any) and are very good torturing the runners.

I know this may seem as a weak argument considering the way the Red Sox handled the Angels and I have to hand it to the Sox they did the job IMMENSELY, but I can't help myself from thinking the Red Sox haven't yet been really challenged.

The Angels kept shooting themselves in the foot as BC said, and yes the Sox made some big plays but Angels' lineup core was under par (sans Tex and Hunter and to some extent Vladdy, he was quite good when it comes to putting himself on base but did not make the crucial plays).

The Rays scored 0 runs in game 1, and after they challenged them in game 2 (provided the Rays still had more urgency than the Rays but the Sox still lost in the end.

Frankly I am not sure what to do tonight and will prolly leave the game alone. Garza on the road - downgrade compared to his home stats.

TB on the road - downgrade compared to their Tropicana performances.

Lester is a beast at home. However, I would somehow not be as surprised if Tampa stepped up now when no one really expects them to. They've seen Lester plenty this year, and they may have received a boost after a win in game 2.

I'm skipping.

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

exactly, TB has not played well in fenway all year

would i be stretching it to say the sox win all 3 games and take the series before it even gets back to the trop?

i can get bosox at -160 for the series, if lester wins tonight and i think he will, that will go up to about -220 to -240 and i will not get this shot again

i either hedge tonight, or i dont hedge at all.
the rays look outclassed and inexperienced to me, im really starting to think that playing the banged up, fatigued white sox, made it more of a "smoke and mirrors" thing.... and made the rays look more composed and talented then they actually are.

a great young team, dont get me wrong, and this team will be good for the next decade, and this is is a great learning process for them to get some experience under their belt, but winning in fenway in the ALCS is a tough feat to do, esp with a manager who has never been in the postseason before.

AgainstThePublic · Oct 13, 2008

Not sure what to make of this game tonight either. All signs point to Bos ML and/or RL. Just don't feel comfortable laying -170/-180 or the RL. TB is scrappy and you just never know how these games are going to play out. A lot of people were down/skeptical of Kazmir the other night yet TB found a way to win. Both pitchers last game didn't pitch well. Maybe an o/u play will be the way to go. Garza doesn't impress me all that much and Bos could jump on him early. Leaning under right now.

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

im hopign that boston does jump on him early, ATP!
and lester continues his dominance at home and even moreso, in the postseason

hedged off TB for series, while the series is 1-1 and i still have the chance, which is what i should have done against LAA.
in class at the moment, but thoughts are mostly above in the posts from last night and earlier today.

GL fellas:cheers:

tigercub · Oct 13, 2008

haha cap i know we disagreed from the start of the series on what to expect, but now its all up in the air for me. with the beckett situation, i mean i can hope to hell he recovers, but at the same time it just doesnt look like hes healthy. the bats did what i expected in game 2, but beckett certainly did not. credit to tampa for sticking with it and getting back in the series.

i wouldnt of bet tampa for the series at the beginning, but if i had i think i'd have to let the ticket ride. tampa has the edge in game 4 i believe. sonnanstine has dominated the sox lineup this year and wake is a total tossup. if lester doesnt do what is expected of him tonight and win, then the sox could be in trouble. i can only hope that that isnt the case.

AgainstThePublic · Oct 13, 2008

Well went against the grain and took a shot with TB. All this love for Lester is making me sick to my stomach even though he deserves all the love. I will go with the scrappy boys from TB to pull off the shocker.

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

tigercub said:
haha cap i know we disagreed from the start of the series on what to expect, but now its all up in the air for me. with the beckett situation, i mean i can hope to hell he recovers, but at the same time it just doesnt look like hes healthy. the bats did what i expected in game 2, but beckett certainly did not. credit to tampa for sticking with it and getting back in the series.

i wouldnt of bet tampa for the series at the beginning, but if i had i think i'd have to let the ticket ride. tampa has the edge in game 4 i believe. sonnanstine has dominated the sox lineup this year and wake is a total tossup. if lester doesnt do what is expected of him tonight and win, then the sox could be in trouble. i can only hope that that isnt the case.

haha, we definitely disagreed on some aspects of this matchup at first, but the more ive watched the more i see you were right on a couple points.
the advantages in defense and bullpen that i initially thought went to tampa, are not advantages in fact and actually are about even.

and you are right, if lester doenst win tonight, my hedge is fucked and i think the bosox are fucked too. the hedge was made in banking that he gets the W today.

wake is hit or miss, like you said. but if my memory serves me right he has pitched pretty well against tampa this year, barring one bad outing which came recently @ the trop.

tampa looks a lot more loose and composed at the plate, whereas in game 1 they looked tight and reserved. that worries me a bit, and the fact that varitek just cost us a fucking run. but its early....

beckett is certainly not even close to 100% and had a dissapointing outing in game 2, but kaz has had struggles with leaving the ball up in the zone and the sox took advantage with some HR's.

CapTwo · Oct 13, 2008

AgainstThePublic said:
Well went against the grain and took a shot with TB. All this love for Lester is making me sick to my stomach even though he deserves all the love. I will go with the scrappy boys from TB to pull off the shocker.

good health ATP, you got the early 1-0 lead

my rationalization on the bosox is more of, i think the difference here comes down to experience.

if tampa makes a mistake, boston will most likely capitalize on it, but im not sure i can say the same for tampa

example: in game 2, in the first inning i believe, tampa had one man on and upton came to the plate. beckett hung the SHIT out of a breaking ball that sat over the plate which seemed like an eternity, and should have been a HR for a hitter like upton. upton ended up getting underneath it just a bit and ended up with a towering fly ball to deep center.... but you could tell he was pissed afterwards as he was shaking his head and cursing on his way out of the dugout.

pedroia, youk, JD drew, maybe even papi whos due to break out of his slump, would send that ball out no problem.
upton ended up jacking one anyways later in the game, but the point is it comes down to the little things, and capitalizing on the few mistakes that the other team will give you.

boston is so good at that, you make a mistake against boston, you pay.

CapTwo · Oct 14, 2008

wow, i got ass-raped yesterday @ 0-3

i couldnt have sucked much more dick even if i was a prostitute.

boston game i was just flat our wrong. i have no qualms about backing a guy whos 11-1 at home, sox have won their last 15 at home when he pitches, and boasts a 0.0 ERA. props to the rays here though...

rays did a excellent job on the scouting report, waited for the right pitch to hit and jumped on it. props to em. great win for em. id be a lot happier had i not hedged w/ the sox. i really fucked myself doing that. should have let TB wager ride.
i think that was somewhat attributed to me NOT hedging with LAA...
its like if your at the poker table, you know the guy bluffed you the first two times, you look him up the 3rd time and hes holding the nuts and youre fucked.
had you not been reeling from the first two bluffs, you wouldnt have called.
had i not lost betting against boston 1st round, i prolly wouldnt have hedged.

LA. thoughts posted everywhere. torre is a fucking shithead and he blew it.
great job not bringing in beimel in for the 8th and broxton for the 9th u fuckhead.
instead he brings in two young arms in kershaw and wade, and wade he has over-used this postseason anyway it was inevitable that he was going to be hit hard.

it really was a lot simpler then he made it. but he had to go with his "favorite relievers" that he falls in love with, just like he did in NY. go to hell torre

CapTwo · Oct 14, 2008

no plays today. i lean tampa and philly. i got reamed yesterday

i probably wont have any more plays this round, except for tampa ML in game 6 or 7.

also, if cole doesnt pull it off today, i will be playing phily to close the series in game 6.
but i dont see that happening.

i did add a future on the phills to win the WS. heres why.

IF YOU HAVE AN ACCOUNT W/ VIP... they still left up phills @ 17/10 to win.
YOU ARE GUARANTEEING YOURSELF MONEY

i use VIP and 5dimes, great primary/secondary book combo.

5dimes is already down to +158, vip left it up

you can stil take tampa/boston and guarantee yourself money!!!

so if you have some money in VIP, hit this now. its still up

PHILADELPHIA (1.7 Odds)
PHILADELPHIA () vs PHILLOSES ()
World Series Championship - To Win
2008 World Series

CapTwo · Oct 15, 2008

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

ontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w

ontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w

ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style>Thank you to joe maddon (maybe ill be cursing him later), but because he has decided to start kaz, and not shields in game 5, I will have a play on boston in tomorrows game.

I know im probably going to see a lot of people on the other side of this one, but I really like boston in this spot for a couple of reasons. (Keep in mind, if they win tomorrow I WILL be on TB in game 6…. This is for tonights spot only)

CapTwo · Oct 15, 2008

First, the sox are not going to get swept at fenway. I just don’t see it. They are not going to be embarrassed by their AL east rivals and lose all 3 at fenway, nor do I see them losing the series on their home turf. Theyre at least going to force a game 6 IMO to save face.

Second, the rays cannot keep up with this longball hitting, at least not against dice-k. Lester made the mistake of leaving his cutter right over the heart of the plate a couple times in the third, and it cost him. Wake, was looking like wake does and was serving up softball pitches out there, high knuckleballers almost chest high, right over the plate. To be honest I think every hitters dream is to see pitches like those on a daily basis. Any team would jump on those pitches and smack them out of the park.

Dice-k is a totally different story then wake or beckett. You have to have a totally different approach at the plate against him. The rays have had success when they can be aggressive at the plate and go after pitches against strikeout pitchers, but against dice-k you have to do the opposite- got to be patient at the plate and take pitches. Dice-k put forth a great effort in game 1, really confusing and keeping the rays hitters on their toes changing speeds back and forth, and I expect the same result here.

You don’t get pitches to hit against him. He has excellent location on all of his pitches, never leaves the ball over the plate, and he does not allow you to take those big powerful swings like you can do with a guy like wake or beckett, he changes speeds and keeps the hitter on their toes at all times.

Third, kazmir is ailing. He has shown problems of elbow discomfort, which has had him leaving the ball up in the zone, and the sox have capitalized on his mistakes with the longball.
Kaz has had his road woes this season, and has been reamed by boston.... in his last 2 matchups against em, hes givin up 5 ER and 9 ER, and both of those were AT the trop!!!!
I dont think he lasts more then 4 innings tomorrow.

<o>let me know what you all think. im almost positive ill be on them, but ive really shit the bed this series. i am still kicking myself for what i feel is one of the dumbest postseason moves ive ever made, in hedging off my TB bet with boston. really cost me....</o>

AgainstThePublic · Oct 15, 2008

Cap...Not a bad analysis but I wouldn't go with the mentality that Boston won't get swept in Fenway. I really don't think too many people expected the Rays to be in this position to sweep Boston at Boston. Regardless if Boston does win Game 5 they would have still beeen embarrassed so far in this series. TB has been the better team hands down with a huge chip on their shoulder. With that said it is real hard to go against the hungrier more balanced team at the moment. I think Maddon made a very smart move to start Kazmir in Game 5. Shields pitches better at home and could close it out against Beckett (who is ailing too) if Kazmir doesn't get the job done. I agree that Kazmir hasn't looked impressive but I think it's better for Kazmir to pitch on the road where there's less pressure for him to win seeing as TB is up 3-1. Now I am not saying that TB is going to give a game away. I lean towards Boston too but from what I have seen from Boston and TB this series it is hard to back Boston. Not sure yet on the play.

On a side note, I don't wtf Boston was thinking starting Wakefield in Game 4. Yes he had dominated TB in prior years but this is a different TB team. He also hadn't pitched since late Sept.

tigercub · Oct 15, 2008

down but certainly not out. if the sox can get 4 runs tomorrow they have the win imo. having said that, i expect kazmir to pitch a little better than he has been and game 5 is going to be a very low scoring game from both sides. my gut tells me its either going to be a very bitter departure from the playoffs for boston, as their bats struggle to get the big hit again. Or, boston gets a timely hit or two and pulls out a big game and snag back momentum for beckett in game 6. we all know of becketts stuggles recently, but i still got to believe he can keep tampa's bats somewhat under control after his domination over them in the regular season. lets face it, tampa hasnt swung their bats this great all year long. they got very hot and boston's pitching hasnt helped themselves a bit. dice k is a very composed pitcher who can swing the series with another great outing. its up to boston's bats to get him 3 or 4 runs. comeback starts tomorrow, one game at a time.

tigercub · Oct 18, 2008

ok a little off in my prediction of game 5, but who couldve predicated such a fucking win. tampa's bats still hitting like crazy, with an ailing beckett tonight. its tough to get a feel on beckett, but i have hope he can be effective. like i said earlier, i have to think he can control a lineup he dominated all year. who knows how tampa will respond tonight. they have responded well off big losses all year, but never with 7 outs from the world series. we'll see if big game shields can live up to his name in game 6. just dont let us win tonight. GO SOX

Kramer · Oct 18, 2008

tigercub said:
ok a little off in my prediction of game 5, but who couldve predicated such a fucking win. tampa's bats still hitting like crazy, with an ailing beckett tonight. its tough to get a feel on beckett, but i have hope he can be effective. like i said earlier, i have to think he can control a lineup he dominated all year. who knows how tampa will respond tonight. they have responded well off big losses all year, but never with 7 outs from the world series. we'll see if big game shields can live up to his name in game 6. just dont let us win tonight. GO SOX

:cheers::cheers:

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

tigercub said:
ok a little off in my prediction of game 5, but who couldve predicated such a fucking win. tampa's bats still hitting like crazy, with an ailing beckett tonight. its tough to get a feel on beckett, but i have hope he can be effective. like i said earlier, i have to think he can control a lineup he dominated all year. who knows how tampa will respond tonight. they have responded well off big losses all year, but never with 7 outs from the world series. we'll see if big game shields can live up to his name in game 6. just dont let us win tonight. GO SOX

:cheers:

saddest thing was I MISSED the game, dvr'ed it though. ended up going out that night to the city cause a high school friend was spinning at a big club there, and saw the headlines late night before i hit the sack and was shocked.... watched the game yesterday and wow. one of the greatest comebacks i have ever seen. simply amazing.

sorry though bro, im jumpin ship here. played sox in game 5, but i think its too little too late

FINALLY francona moved coco to the leadoff spot replacing that fucking worthless hitless idiot ellsbury. but he should have done that in game 3.

now its back to the land of the cowbells, with big game james, their ace, on the mound for the biggest game in franchise history.

the main reason im not buying the "will the inexperienced rays be phased by blowing that lead" argument.... is because maddon was prepared to lose this game IMO anyways. im not saying he was playing to lose, but he really set them up to win it in game 6 if needed.
because he rolled with kaz, and saved shields for game 6, at home, where he's been dominant and at his best, and they know lester is in store for them in game 7 and they want to end this here and now.

they flipped the coin with kaz, it didnt work out, time to put it in the hands of their ace and end this shit

i just have to decide whether it's going to be the ailing, injured, gas-can beckett who gives up the longball.... or will it be the dominant, lights out 07 beckett.

back in a lil

opcorn: leanin rays though

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

like ATP said somewhere above, the rays have been playing w/ their backs to the wall all series.... besides playing a little "tight" in game 1 but that was expected

so i just dont see how blowing a lead in game 5 is going to affect them, they have a good manager in maddon whos not going to let that happen. i know its happened to other teams but the way the rays have dominated this series i dont see that loss getting them down. they should be happy w/ their performance thus far

they still won 2 of 3 in fenway, which is a very tough feat to accomplish

~Utah · Oct 18, 2008

they flipped the coin with kaz, it didnt work out, time to put it in the hands of their ace and end this shit

I dont agree, it did actually work out and it turned out to be a good move. I think he pitched a pretty good game and had one fuck up. Even after that fuck up, they were in a good spot. Hopefully they do end it tonight. I feel like this is one of those few times me and you are on the same side :cheers:

Must mean something

opcorn:

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

AlexGurv1987 said:
I dont agree, it did actually work out and it turned out to be a good move. I think he pitched a pretty good game and had one fuck up. Even after that fuck up, they were in a good spot. Hopefully they do end it tonight. I feel like this is one of those few times me and you are on the same side :cheers:

Must mean something opcorn:

naww i agree, he was sick. i mean shit, almost 7 innings and no runs, what else can you ask for?

i was just saying that youre flipping a coin because its hit or miss with him, which is how hes been pitching lately. veyr inconsistent

in game 5, it was hit, and he was throwing his best stuff

:shake:

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

rollin with rays -1 (-102)

and also the RL for some value

good luck fellas

spanishshark · Oct 18, 2008

GO RAAAYS !!!!! :cheers::cheers::cheers:'an_horse''an_horse'

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

spanishshark said:
GO RAAAYS !!!!! :cheers::cheers::cheers:'an_horse''an_horse'

:smiley_acbe:

:smiley_acbk::cheers::cheers::cheers:

CapTwo · Oct 18, 2008

spanishshark · Oct 18, 2008

Fuck me

BetCrimes1984 · Oct 19, 2008

seems my writing off the Red Sox every step of the way reverse jinx cunning plan can't but work a charm. 1 more game to write them off in, then it'll be onto writing them off for the WS.

Philly fans should be afraid, very afraid of my not rating this current version of the Bosox.

tigercub · Oct 19, 2008

BetCrimes1984 said:
seems my writing off the Red Sox every step of the way reverse jinx cunning plan can't but work a charm. 1 more game to write them off in, then it'll be onto writing them off for the WS.

Philly fans should be afraid, very afraid of my not rating this current version of the Bosox.

before i get into anything... i thought you were a sox fan, and was wondering what all that shit you were writing was about. lol. keep it going, it seems to be working, one more day of it and we're in the series.

cap. maddon apparently never watched the karate kid. when you got your foot on the neck, finish it. if shields is pitching in game 5, they dont go to the pen early. they probably end it then and there. maddon outcoached himself and some people refuse to believe it. i agree with him pulling kaz as he was at what 111 pitches. hes done there. shields is prob still cruising with that lead. now he worked his bullpen and fulled their heads with a lot of doubt for any remaining games. i dont think you can feel good with any of them the rest of the series.

i remember a few weeks ago i was arguing with someone on here about how tito worked his bullpen in a sox/rays series. tito brought in masterson in a tie game, trying to keep the game as is and get us back to our bats. mast pitched well enough to do that, but there were a few broken bat/ squeak hits, and the sox ended up losing the game. i was okay with this, but people who bet the game were not, saying you have to lose that game with your best pitcher (paps, who was OVER WORKED at the time). TITO plays to win the trophy. he puts his team in position, not to win that game, but to win in the end. he always has. thats why hes the best manager in boston history,and WHY people around here somtimes argue that is beyond me. MADDON worked wheeler i think it was, what 3.1 innings in game 2. yes you won that game, but how'd that work out in game 5????? now you got a young team fucked in the series, with a bullpen thats all fucked in the head, going against (buck martinez' words, jinx i know) the best pitcher in baseball, in game 7. tito works his bullpen, and i've said this for 3 years now, better than any manager ive ever seen. he doesnt get enough credit for it, and because of that, ALWAYS PUTS HIS TEAM IN POSITION TO WIN. thats why the sox are so successfull.

game 7. LETS FUCKING GO SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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