Satyr
Paster of Muppets
So October is behind us. And a great month it was, let's hope November treats us equally well.
For the 2nd time in 3 nights I got torched big time. My team is up 2-1 with less than 10 mins to go, and they allow 3 unanswered goals. First Dallas against San Jose, now the Canes. Some dodgy penalty calls let me tell you that. But justice was served I guess, a regular Panthers' goal was called for high sticking. Had the Canes won, we would have made approximately 23 units last night alone. This way it's slightly above 4.
Anyways, here are the plays for tonight.
This will be a huge read, but I've got all this planned out, so I wanted to put forth every possible aspect of this game. Maybe some of you decide for a different bet after reading all this, that's fine, but it will be useful info, and that's what counts as well, even though winners is what I'm searching for.
I've been waiting for this game for several days now. And I've got even more than I had hoped for. First, I hoped for a price around 3.00, we have 3.40. Furthermore, Senators will miss their center Jason Spezza, who already has 12 assists this season, despite netting only 1 goal. That will be a big blow for the Sens. May I say huge? I'll say it: that will be a huge blow for the Sens. It disrupts their tempo big time.
They have several other big guns in the team, namely Alfredsson and Heatley. But these two guys will be affected by it the most. Senators 1st line Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley combined for 39 points so far in the season (between themselves, not for 39 goals). The rest of the team put together has somewhere around that number.
Now even though these guys are so good they can score unassisted goals, they can count on secondary lines or guys from the back to net in some shots, it is an undisputed fact that their offensive chemistry will be tampered with tomorrow, as Alfredsson and Heatley will play with (probably) Mike Fisher or Chris Kelly on the center position.
The Senators are as good as a team can get right now, 10 games, 9 wins, taking approximately 33 shots per game, scored 34 goals already, allowed only 19 (league's best defense), they played only 10 games compared to some teams' 13, meaning they're not as fatigued as some other teams...
On the other side, Atlanta. They have 8 points compared to Sens' 18, goal difference of 27-47, their number one goaltender (Lehtonen) is injured (groin), last year's Southeast division holders are rock bottom, trailing 9 points to the revamped Hurricanes' team.
Where's the catch then? Ok here we go. Fasten your seatbelts.
But the veteran goaltender said he hasn't had to change anything with his preparation — not to bed any earlier, not eating any better, not working any harder — because he has always prepared every day like he could be called on at any time. Such is the routine of a respected No. 2 goalie.
Read more...
So what about mentally?
"Sometimes if you haven't played for a while, you're maybe sometimes too focused," Hedberg said. "If you play more, you get more relaxed. You read the game better, at least I do. Instead of playing on a lot of adrenaline, you play more on routine, technique and just reading the play."
He's playing like he's getting more comfortable. Entering Saturday night, Hedberg had back-to-back games of 30-plus saves.
We could say he was overachieving a bit too, but as I said, you don't get to nail a 3.10 dog without any downsides to it. Also, Hedberg himself said he reads the game better when playing regularly, that's normal.
It took me what, half an hour to write all this? The Ottawa Senators could be up 3-0 after 1st and all of this goes down the drain. I say: ok! I'm almost a hundred units up, and by no means am I being complacent now, just sharp minded, not chasing anything, not panicking, not forcing. Just capping. And this play fits in my criteria big time. The value is there. Both "big dogs" and road teams have been money in the past 5 days, why not hop onto the bandwagon?
When we know the Senators are going to be a popular bet tonight (as always) and the circumstances I just presented, I have to make a bet on the Thrashers. I will add an additional bet on the over (a smaller one), it could be used as an additional profit source or a partial cover in case Ottawa goes bonanza tomorrow. In all cases, I do expect the game to go over the total or at least match it. OT is not out of the question either.
Thrashers ML (3.40 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Over 6 (2.06 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Another value road doggy here. However, my main play is something else here, but the dog draws my attention as well. The Blue Jackets are b2b, not good for a team in the making, but could be good for a hot team. They will put Fredrik Norrena on goal tonight who is 1-1-1, 2.93 GAA this season. His road GAA is as high as 3.51. His numbers against the Ducks, abysmal. 4 games, GAA of 4.04, and coming to the hands of the reigning Stanley Cup winners. Not that inviting for a play, is it? However, the Jackets are hot right now, they've improved severely under Hitchcock this year, and they're coming off a 4-1 win over the Kings.
I don't think their offense stops here. Their D however, could. They're still prone to letting in more than a few occasionally, but the offense is hot, Nash, Novotny, Zherdev, Chimera, etc...these guys are doing it right now.
They are 7-3-1 on the season, which is their best start in 7 year franchise history.
They're winners of 4 straight games, they also outclassed Anaheim in early October by a score of 4 to nothing.
The Ducks have to step up in this game, 4-7-2 including 4 straight losses draws a lot of attention. In a negative way. They could step up here, in that case this game will storm over the total as they can put up 5 to Norrena themselves if they manage to find their game. And that's a big IF right there. The Jackets are hot, and I can't pass up on this price, Norrena or not, b2b or not. Keeping Columbus stakes low, trying to exploit the total here, which is totally off in my opinion.
Not to mention that the last 9 games these two teams played, we've had 6 games exceeding this mark, once matching it, and going under only twice.
Blue Jackets ML (3.00 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
over 5 (1.83 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
The Habs had a minor setback against Atlanta but they still qualify under a hot team in my book. Winning 4 straight before being edged out by the Thrashers isn't tragic. They'll get back to winning ways tonight if you ask me. The Flyers are still on the road, and they will stay for 5 more games before returning home to face the Penguins on November 10th.
There are more winnable games than this one, that's for sure. This is the front end of a b2b game for the Flyers, they're in Washington tomorrow.
They're still without Gagne due to dizziness following a (probably) mild concussion.
I can see them winning at Madison Square Garden, Gagne should be in the lineup by then. The Habs bouncing back with a comfortable win is what I like here.
Canadiens (-1,5) (3.25 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
That's probably it for me.
Good luck tonight guys. :shake: :cheers:
For the 2nd time in 3 nights I got torched big time. My team is up 2-1 with less than 10 mins to go, and they allow 3 unanswered goals. First Dallas against San Jose, now the Canes. Some dodgy penalty calls let me tell you that. But justice was served I guess, a regular Panthers' goal was called for high sticking. Had the Canes won, we would have made approximately 23 units last night alone. This way it's slightly above 4.
Anyways, here are the plays for tonight.
This will be a huge read, but I've got all this planned out, so I wanted to put forth every possible aspect of this game. Maybe some of you decide for a different bet after reading all this, that's fine, but it will be useful info, and that's what counts as well, even though winners is what I'm searching for.
I've been waiting for this game for several days now. And I've got even more than I had hoped for. First, I hoped for a price around 3.00, we have 3.40. Furthermore, Senators will miss their center Jason Spezza, who already has 12 assists this season, despite netting only 1 goal. That will be a big blow for the Sens. May I say huge? I'll say it: that will be a huge blow for the Sens. It disrupts their tempo big time.
They have several other big guns in the team, namely Alfredsson and Heatley. But these two guys will be affected by it the most. Senators 1st line Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley combined for 39 points so far in the season (between themselves, not for 39 goals). The rest of the team put together has somewhere around that number.
Now even though these guys are so good they can score unassisted goals, they can count on secondary lines or guys from the back to net in some shots, it is an undisputed fact that their offensive chemistry will be tampered with tomorrow, as Alfredsson and Heatley will play with (probably) Mike Fisher or Chris Kelly on the center position.
The Senators are as good as a team can get right now, 10 games, 9 wins, taking approximately 33 shots per game, scored 34 goals already, allowed only 19 (league's best defense), they played only 10 games compared to some teams' 13, meaning they're not as fatigued as some other teams...
On the other side, Atlanta. They have 8 points compared to Sens' 18, goal difference of 27-47, their number one goaltender (Lehtonen) is injured (groin), last year's Southeast division holders are rock bottom, trailing 9 points to the revamped Hurricanes' team.
Where's the catch then? Ok here we go. Fasten your seatbelts.
- Ottawa are a great team, but as I said, they are missing their starting center, which should tamper with their offensive flow one way or another. They have the talent to compensate for that, but it's not going to be easy.
- Ottawa is 9-1-0. They won't go 81-1-0, despite the fact some people will bet them any day, any price, any opponent. Might not be hard to find some reasoning behind every one of those bets, as stupid as it may sound, but they're that good. After all, last year's finalists, one of league's top regular season teams in the last 5 seasons, plenty of talent, etc...
But they are vulnerable. Let's see who beat them. The Carolina Hurricanes. Both the Canes and Atlanta have the ability to create offensive swings and maintain pressure from the blueline. Take note.
- Atlanta started the season in a 0-6-0 manner. Coach Hartley was fired, and the Thrashers have won two straight and four of six under new coach Don Waddell. Let's see. They've lost only to the Bolts (in Tampa) which is not a disgrace since TB beat everyone at home so far, and in Nashville, the way they lost was kinda worrying (0-3) but the Preds are also improving after an abysmal start.
They beat the Rangers, the Leafs and the surging Habs, all on the road. That has to give them some credit in front of this game. None of these teams are of Sens' caliber, but it is a nice spot for the Thrashers, to come in after generating some momentum.
- The rivalry between these teams is now bigger since the trade (Heatley for Hossa) and the Thrashers actually edge out the Sens in recent seasons, winning 5 out of 9. Not a significant trend at all, but the fact is, the Sens don't have a negative record talking back 2-3 seasons to a lot of teams.
Hossa still hasn't found his game, but has has three goals and 12 assists in eight matchups with his former team, including 10 assists in the four meetings last season. He only scored 4 times in last 20 games overall (dating back to last season) which are horrid numbers, and him getting a few points would give the additional boost to the team. But in all honesty, they've been winning without him.
On the other side, Heatley and Alfredsson also have good numbers against Atlanta, but as I said, they will play without their "third man", who knows how they adapt. However, not all can be shining, we are talking huge underdog here. There has to be a downside (or 3).
- Martin Gerber is not a 7-1-0, 94% sv pct, 1.99 GAA goalie. Frankly, I don't see who is, but Martin Gerber surely isn't.
His career numbers are 2.51 GAA, 91% sv pct. I expect some regression to occur, with Ottawa and with Gerber. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if Emery got to start against Atlanta, as Gerber is 3-4-0, 86% sv pct, 3.50 GAA against Atlanta. Starting an overachieving goalie with poor numbers against a certain team, a certain system, is like asking for trouble.
I could not find any notes or projections about who is expected to start for the Sens, but as I said, I would go with Emery and put this perfect Gerber streak on ice. You can only go downhill from where Gerber is now.
- Marian Hossa isn't scoring. But the Thrashers are. Kovalchuk, White, Slava Kozlov, these guys are en fuego right now. Brian Little (who is very talented btw) and Eric Perrin have shown they can score. Having Hossa step up would be huge at this point, and even though I do expect him to step up against his former team in front of their fans, he doesn't need to, the Thrash have been doing fine without his regular contribution. They can't win the division that way, but they can win in one game.
More news I like. I've read a ton of articles and seen several games during Atlanta's recent streak. The team that started 0-6-0 is no more. New chemistry, new beginning. And some fresh legs as well. Waddell got some fresh faces on the ice Saturday with Chris Thorburn and Mark Popovic both in the lineup for only the second time this season. Brad Larsen also returned to the lineup after being a healthy scratch the past two games.
- Well at least we don't have to worry who will be in between the pipes for Atlanta, do we. With Lehtonen out of the picture, there's only one option left: Johan Hedberg. Now read this:
Saturday night was Johan Hedberg's sixth game in goal in 12 days if you count most of the Rangers game he played after Kari Lehtonen got hurt. To play six full games last year, Hedberg had to go three months — from December to March.
But the veteran goaltender said he hasn't had to change anything with his preparation — not to bed any earlier, not eating any better, not working any harder — because he has always prepared every day like he could be called on at any time. Such is the routine of a respected No. 2 goalie.
Read more...
So what about mentally?
"Sometimes if you haven't played for a while, you're maybe sometimes too focused," Hedberg said. "If you play more, you get more relaxed. You read the game better, at least I do. Instead of playing on a lot of adrenaline, you play more on routine, technique and just reading the play."
He's playing like he's getting more comfortable. Entering Saturday night, Hedberg had back-to-back games of 30-plus saves.
We could say he was overachieving a bit too, but as I said, you don't get to nail a 3.10 dog without any downsides to it. Also, Hedberg himself said he reads the game better when playing regularly, that's normal.
It took me what, half an hour to write all this? The Ottawa Senators could be up 3-0 after 1st and all of this goes down the drain. I say: ok! I'm almost a hundred units up, and by no means am I being complacent now, just sharp minded, not chasing anything, not panicking, not forcing. Just capping. And this play fits in my criteria big time. The value is there. Both "big dogs" and road teams have been money in the past 5 days, why not hop onto the bandwagon?
When we know the Senators are going to be a popular bet tonight (as always) and the circumstances I just presented, I have to make a bet on the Thrashers. I will add an additional bet on the over (a smaller one), it could be used as an additional profit source or a partial cover in case Ottawa goes bonanza tomorrow. In all cases, I do expect the game to go over the total or at least match it. OT is not out of the question either.
Thrashers ML (3.40 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Over 6 (2.06 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Another value road doggy here. However, my main play is something else here, but the dog draws my attention as well. The Blue Jackets are b2b, not good for a team in the making, but could be good for a hot team. They will put Fredrik Norrena on goal tonight who is 1-1-1, 2.93 GAA this season. His road GAA is as high as 3.51. His numbers against the Ducks, abysmal. 4 games, GAA of 4.04, and coming to the hands of the reigning Stanley Cup winners. Not that inviting for a play, is it? However, the Jackets are hot right now, they've improved severely under Hitchcock this year, and they're coming off a 4-1 win over the Kings.
I don't think their offense stops here. Their D however, could. They're still prone to letting in more than a few occasionally, but the offense is hot, Nash, Novotny, Zherdev, Chimera, etc...these guys are doing it right now.
They are 7-3-1 on the season, which is their best start in 7 year franchise history.
They're winners of 4 straight games, they also outclassed Anaheim in early October by a score of 4 to nothing.
The Ducks have to step up in this game, 4-7-2 including 4 straight losses draws a lot of attention. In a negative way. They could step up here, in that case this game will storm over the total as they can put up 5 to Norrena themselves if they manage to find their game. And that's a big IF right there. The Jackets are hot, and I can't pass up on this price, Norrena or not, b2b or not. Keeping Columbus stakes low, trying to exploit the total here, which is totally off in my opinion.
Not to mention that the last 9 games these two teams played, we've had 6 games exceeding this mark, once matching it, and going under only twice.
Blue Jackets ML (3.00 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
over 5 (1.83 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
The Habs had a minor setback against Atlanta but they still qualify under a hot team in my book. Winning 4 straight before being edged out by the Thrashers isn't tragic. They'll get back to winning ways tonight if you ask me. The Flyers are still on the road, and they will stay for 5 more games before returning home to face the Penguins on November 10th.
There are more winnable games than this one, that's for sure. This is the front end of a b2b game for the Flyers, they're in Washington tomorrow.
They're still without Gagne due to dizziness following a (probably) mild concussion.
I can see them winning at Madison Square Garden, Gagne should be in the lineup by then. The Habs bouncing back with a comfortable win is what I like here.
Canadiens (-1,5) (3.25 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
That's probably it for me.
Good luck tonight guys. :shake: :cheers:
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...the goal should have counted but that diving call was fishy, also another penalty on the Canes was kinda dodgy, can't remember who it was now but nevermind. Good hit with the Panthers man. :shake: GL tonight. 
