NFLx Plays/Thoughts

Highlighted are QBs I expect to do well this preseason. Edit - highlights didn’t work. I’ll edit later.


Ravens should continue to roll with a super deep QB room of guys who can scramble.

Matt Barkely is the best pre season QB of all time.

9ers have 3 great pre season backups.

Texans have a great 3 QBs and a new coach looking to set a tone.

Mike White should do great for the Dolphins with Skylar too.


TeamPlayer 1Player 2Player 3Player 4Player 5
AFC East
Allen, Josh 18/1Allen, Kyle U/HouBARKLEY, MATT SF22
Tagovailoa, Tua 20/1White, Mike U/NYJThompson, Skylar 22/7Blackman, James CF23
Jones, Mac 21/1Zappe, Bailey 22/4McSorley, Trace U/ArzCunningham, Malik CF23
RODGERS, AARON T/GBWilson, Zach 21/1Boyle, Tim U/ChiStreveler, Chris SF22
AFC North
Jackson, Lamar 18/1Huntley, Tyler CF20JOHNSON, JOSH U/SFBrown, Anthony CF22
Burrow, Joe 20/1SIEMIAN, TREVOR CC/ChiBrowning, Jake SF21
Watson, Deshaun T/HouDobbs, Joshua U/TenThompson-Robinson, Dorian 23/5Mond, Kellen W/Min
Pickett, Kenny 22/1Trubisky, Mitch U/BufRudolph, Mason 18/3Morgan, Tanner CF23
AFC South
Stroud, C.J. 23/1Mills, Davis 21/3KEENUM, CASE U/Buf
Richardson, Anthony 23/1Minshew, Gardner U/PhiEhlinger, Sam 21/6
Lawrence, Trevor 21/1Beathard, C.J. U/SFRourke, Nathan SF23
TANNEHILL, RYAN T/MiaLevis, Will 23/2Willis, Malik 22/3
AFC West
WILSON, RUSSELL T/SeaStidham, Jarrett U/LVDiNucci, Ben SF23
Mahomes, Patrick 17/1GABBERT, BLAINE U/TBBuechele, Shane CF21Oladokun, Chris SF22
GAROPPOLO, JIMMY U/SFHOYER, BRIAN SF23O'Connell, Aidan 23/4
Herbert, Justin 20/1Stick, Easton 19/5Duggan, Max 23/7
NFC East
PRESCOTT, DAK 16/4Rush, Cooper CF17Grier, Will W/Car
Jones, Daniel 19/1TAYLOR, TYROD U/HouDeVito, Tommy CF23
Hurts, Jalen 20/2Mariota, Marcus CC/AtlMcKee, Tanner 23/6Book, Ian W/NO
Howell, Sam 22/5BRISSETT, JACOBY U/CleFromm, Jake SF22
NFC North
Fields, Justin 21/1Walker, PJ U/CarPeterman, Nathan SF22Bagent, Tyson CF23
Goff, Jared T/LARSudfeld, Nate SF22Hooker, Hendon NFIMartinez, Adrian CF23
Love, Jordan 20/1Clifford, Sean 23/5Etling, Danny SF22McGough, Alex SF23
COUSINS, KIRK U/WasMullens, Nick T/LVHall, Jaren 23/5
NFC South
Ridder, Desmond 22/3HEINICKE, TAYLOR U/WasWoodside, Logan P/Ten
Young, Bryce 23/1DALTON, ANDY U/NOCorral, Matt 22/3
CARR, DEREK CC/LVWinston, Jameis U/TBHaener, Jake 23/4
Mayfield, Baker U/LARTrask, Kyle 21/2Wolford, John U/LAR
NFC West
Murray, Kyler PUPMCCOY, COLT U/NYGTune, Clayton 23/5DRISKEL, JEFF U/HouBlough, David P/Min
STAFFORD, MATTHEW T/DetBennett, Stetson 23/4Rypien, Brett U/DenWinn, Dresser CF23
Purdy, Brock 22/7Lance, Trey 21/1Darnold, Sam U/CarALLEN, BRANDON U/Cin
SMITH, GENO U/LACLock, Drew T/Den
 
I’m also really liking NE’s QB stable for pre season. New (old) coaches looking to establish themselves on offense.
 
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Streveler was marvelous for the Jets in pre season I remember. If he gets a lot of snaps I like him over DTR or Mond for the Browns for the HOF game.
 
Lines started Browns -1.5 and 33.5. Then it went 2.5 and 31.5. Now I see it back to 1.5 and 34. Looks like a middle opportunity was placed on the total.
 
Kellen Mond expected to start for the Browns.

Wilson for the Jets.

Could end with DTR vs Strev for the second half. Haven’t heard anything about DTR’s camp other than he was drafted with the hope for him to be a long term backup to Watson.
 
Kellen Mond expected to start for the Browns.

Wilson for the Jets.

Could end with DTR vs Strev for the second half. Haven’t heard anything about DTR’s camp other than he was drafted with the hope for him to be a long term backup to Watson.
Every year these low preseason totals look pretty doable to go over and every year as X game 1 progresses I ask myself why do I take overs?
 
Kellen Mond expected to start for the Browns.

Wilson for the Jets.

Could end with DTR vs Strev for the second half. Haven’t heard anything about DTR’s camp other than he was drafted with the hope for him to be a long term backup to Watson.


Mond to play 1h, DTR 2h.

Wilson to start, then Boyle, and I expect Strev to play the second half. A dual threat big guy should have success moving the ball like he did last pre season. I expect Hackett to want to get a win any way possible.

If Dobbs was playing, I’d like Cleveland 1h. But he’s not. I’m much less worried about Mond who I expect won’t make the final roster.

DTR has tons of talent but I expect Strev to outplay him based on pre season experience and will likely scramble and run more than DTR to start.
 
DTR has all the makings of a pre season stud for the next couple of years. Has the Tyrod Taylor type game - one of the best pre season guys of all time.

-.08 units with the +370 hedge at halftime. Should have aimed for some profit.
 
49ers @ Raiders notes.

They will have 2 joint practices prior to the game - usually means game will feature no starters for both teams.

49ers did this with Minny last year in PreS Week 2 - a game they won on the road 17-7.

“Very little,” Shanahan said when asked how much the starters will play. “I mean usually when we go scrimmage a team we’re much more into the scrimmage than the game. So, we’ll see how the two practices go, but going off our history we try to play our starters as much as we can in those two practices and then keep them out of the game.”

This follows what the club did last year after two joint practices with the Vikings before the second preseason game. Most of the starters got plenty of reps in the two days leading up to the contest and rested during the game.

While sure starters might sit, other key players should get plenty of playing time. There are players trying to win jobs and depth charts to sort out. There’s also a chance a player who might be on track to sit out winds up playing some snaps if they don’t perform well in the joint practices.

All eyes either way will be on quarterbacks Trey Lance and Sam Darnold as their backup QB battle rages. Whether Brock Purdy plays to knock some in-game rust off remains to be seen, although Shanahan on Monday told reporters in a post-practice press conference that he doesn’t anticipate Purdy playing.
 
I’ve found with the 9ers preseason games it’s best to take them in the 1st half, especially at home. Shanahan usually has his team come out fast and sharp.
 
From my observations Shanahan almost always has the team come out fast and sharp, not just in the first half. It just doesn't always work out. It all depends on the opponent.
He’s much better covering the 1st half than the entire game. I’ve been on this train for several years.
 
Might be just too much pre season QB experience/talent in the Texans and Pats game to not like the over.

Stroud
Mills
Keenum

Jones
Zappe
McSorely
Cunningham

Even if the starters don’t play…
 
Some RLM on the Texans Pats game.

When I break it down I see Ryans caring more about this than lethargic Bill.

Stroud predicted to get 40% of snaps - could see action into second quarter.

Mims and Keenum quality - Keenum played sporadic for Buffalo last pre season but has incentive here to try to get the backup job and or make the team.

McSorley without any weapons doesn’t scare me. I have no idea what to expect out of Malik, though.

I’ll likely lay the points and also hit the ML on the road favorite.
 
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Some RLM on the Texans Pats game.

When I break it down I see Ryans caring more about this than lethargic Bill.

Stroud predicted to get 40% of snaps - could see action into second quarter.

Mims and Keenum quality - Keenum played sporadic for Buffalo last pre season but has incentive here to try to get the backup job and or make the team.

McSorley without any weapons doesn’t scare me. I have no idea what to expect out of Malik, though.

I’ll likely lay the points and also hit the ML on the road favorite.
Line movement was due to Mac announcement that he's not playing but I don't know what that means when it's been no secret that Bill doesn't even like him at this point
 
Also showing almost 60% on Houston spread and close to 80% on ML but that's the only way I'd play it with three capable QBs
 
Also showing almost 60% on Houston spread and close to 80% on ML but that's the only way I'd play it with three capable QBs

I really don’t trust any source for %s. I see this below and DK is saying 64% on Pats. I would think they can’t lie about that stuff, but not sure.

1691702682046.png
 
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Some RLM on the Texans Pats game.

When I break it down I see Ryans caring more about this than lethargic Bill.

Stroud predicted to get 40% of snaps - could see action into second quarter.

Mims and Keenum quality - Keenum played sporadic for Buffalo last pre season but has incentive here to try to get the backup job and or make the team.

McSorley without any weapons doesn’t scare me. I have no idea what to expect out of Malik, though.

I’ll likely lay the points and also hit the ML on the road favorite.

Won’t it be Zappe more than mcsorely? I’d be scared to death laying points and reason I don’t love under cause of what Malik could potentially do to a bunch of scrubs in the 4th qrtr, could go either way but think potential def there for him to carve up some 4th stringers and don’t think the weapons matter as much for him to succeed.

I have little to no fear of Stroud. The longer he plays the less houston scores imo, I think I like houston team total under 20.5 the best but lean to the +3.5 also. The only section of the game that I think Texans score points will be mills vs 3rd stringers, that part the game worries me, the longer they let stroud play the happier I’d be, Bill doesn’t have to care to make a rookie qb I don’t like look bad!
 
I trust Ryans to be coaching his tail off in this spot that’s all

I just don’t think it gonna lead to lot of points. Malik only reason I don’t just simply love under. I doubt he does that much damage but never know, plus the time mills in, if stroud plays a majority 1st half mills could get to go up against scrubs and he probably can move ball. I can’t see Texans actually going over 20.5 tho, that would shock me a bit.
 
I feel like Ryans getting max effort is much more likely to lead to a defensive battle than houston putting up points. Plus there just not a whole bunch of scary weapons on either side.
 
Does anyone like Stroud? I’m not super high and we know what hoody does to rookies. Granted he not gonna show as much in preseason but I don’t expect his d to made to look bad by CJ stroud! Mills against 3rd string could put up some points but how long does he play? Few series?
 
Does anyone like Stroud? I’m not super high and we know what hoody does to rookies. Granted he not gonna show as much in preseason but I don’t expect his d to made to look bad by CJ stroud! Mills against 3rd string could put up some points but how long does he play? Few series?

I’m not high on him but I think he’s better than previous Ohio State guys. I think he will be okay vs vanilla defenses today.
 
I feel like Ryans getting max effort is much more likely to lead to a defensive battle than houston putting up points. Plus there just not a whole bunch of scary weapons on either side.

Yes sort of expect this and think Mills and Keenum can post a couple of scores…
 
Texans -3 4u
Texans -170 4u ; 2u -170 & Open Parlay

Would probably be passing if this game was tomorrow night. Few better ones tomorrow.
 
I used to hate preseason, but I realized I got to see players that I wont see later.
especially, if they're Ags
Typically how I feel about it

I actually have to look up who the Clones that won't make the show even play for, hell didn't even know til yesterday Hutchinson was drafted by Houston ffs
 
Typically how I feel about it

I actually have to look up who the Clones that won't make the show even play for, hell didn't even know til yesterday Hutchinson was drafted by Houston ffs
I used to look for ISU players in baskets.
Foots was a mirage
 
good health

I used to hate preseason, but I realized I got to see players that I wont see later.
especially, if they're Ags

I seriously think there more solid plays than the 1st few weeks of regular season where I feel totally clueless. Can find some mismatches with certain better qbs playing against guys who be waiting tables! Not to mention unders typically do ok which right up my ally!
 
I used to look for ISU players in baskets.
Foots was a mirage
At least I know that 3 ISU guys will be on the field a lot for the Jets with Lazard there now and pretty sure Will McDonald was our only ever 1st round pick that I recall. And Breece is back. Guess I'm a de facto Jets fan this season since Cards will be playing for Caleb
 
I have no clue where points come from in the packers/bungals game 2marro night? Like both defenses, don’t see any threats of points.
 
Worked out perfect!

If I didn’t have so many crappy things going on I’d say I was living a charmed life with the missed xp, lol. Obviously the game under was better than the Texans team total but they kinda lied to me, I thought I was gonna get 20ish minutes of stroud garbage ass playing qb and I don’t think he ever woulda scored a point! Going forward you gotta think he gonna play entire 1st half if they plan on him being starter, don’t they? Personally I wouldn’t have drafted him, I like mills better and if he didn’t improve they coulda drafted one the QB locks next year, I thought moving back up for stroud was retarded but no shock cause Texans are dumb! Long as we can count on stroud playing majority of the 1st halves I like Texans 1st half unders, lol.
 
You guys read if Ridder playing 2marro? I gotta assume he at least play 3-4 series right? Atl has one stacked looking backfield and a coach who knows how to call run games. I dunno bout Ridder as the qb at all but you gotta think any team who plays them gonna be sore the following week! Bijan on top of Allgeier and Patterson! That a lot of getting the ball shoved right down your throat and play action I would think!!
 
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