NFL Wildcard Weekend DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
The "Bigger" draftkings tourneys will probably be broken down into that day's games. (Ie. a Saturday slate, a Sunday Slate, and a Monday showdown Slate.). So I'll try to discuss that more than a full weekend slate (although I do see Sat-Sun slates being popular too).

I'll update this post as the week goes on, but just getting the foundation in, and we can start discussing sooner.

The pace of play will be out of the 6 total games, the team totals will be out of the 12 total teams, and I'll try to rank the ASR/ALY matchups either out of 12, or top 3/bottom 3, idk yet... I guess its not hard to just saw all 12 as it is. I will note, the top 4 O/U's are practically the same, then 5th, then 6th.... but the spreads/team totals is where it gaps.

Saturday Slate

LVR/CIN

LVR DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 6th. O/U is T-2nd. LVR TTotal is 9th, CIN TTotal is 3rd.
Carr's ASR matchup is ranked T-7th best. Burrows is 12th (the worst).
Jacobs ALY is 10th best. Mixon's is 8th best.

DFS Notable injuries
Jacobs and Waller are Q.
Higgins is Q.

WEATHER - Beautiful - 10mph winds.

NEP/BUF

NEP DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U is 6th. NEP TTotal is 10th, BUF TTotal is 6th.
Allen's ASR is ranked 4th best. Mac's is T-5th best.
Singletary's ALY is 3rd best, Harris's is 11st best.

DFS Notable injuries
Harris and Meyers are Q.

WEATHER - Below freezing

Sunday Slate

PHI/TBB

PHI DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
TBB DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-1st. O/U is 4th. PHI TTotal is 11th, TBB TTotal is 2nd.
Hurts ASR is T-5th best, Bradys is the best.
Fournettes? ALY is the best (like bradys). Sanders is 6th best.


DFS Notable injuries
Sanders is Q.
Evams/Perriamn are Q. RoJo is doubtful, BUT fournette/bernard could be back.

WEATHER - Wet & Windy >15mph winds

SFO/DAL

SFO DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is T-2nd. SFO TTotal is 7th, DAL TTotal is 4th.
Dak ASR matchup is ranked 10th best (so 3rd worst). Garop is 9th best.
Mitchell? has the 5th best ALY matchup. Zeke has the 9th best.

DFS Notable injuries
Mitchell and Garop are Q.
Obviously no Gallup.

WEATHER - Dome

PIT/KCC

PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is T-1st. O/U is 5th. PIT TTotal is 12th, KCC TTotal is 1st.
Mahomes ASR matchup is ranked T-7th best. Big Ben's is 3rd best.
Najee has the 7th best ALY push, Helaire has the 2nd best.

DFS Notable injuries
Najee, and Big Ben are Q.
Williams/Helaire are Q.

WEATHER - Fine.

Monday Slate

ARI/LAR

AIR DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
LAR DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 1st. ARI TTotal is 8th, LAR TTotal is 5th.
Stafford has the 2nd best ASR. Kyler is 11th best.
Michel has the 4th best ALY, Conner has the 12th best.

DFS Notable injuries
Conner/Edmonds both Q. Moore is Q.
Staff is Q. Obvi no Henderson.

WEATHER - Beautiful.
 
Last edited:
Scope this is a really fine thread you start every week, really has been helpful all the way around in handicapping whether props, dfs lineups, or side/total game handicapping. :cheers3:
 
Timh said:
Scope this is a really fine thread you start every week, really has been helpful all the way around in handicapping whether props, dfs lineups, or side/total game handicapping. :cheers3:
Click to expand...

Thank you so much! Glad its helped you (and hopefully others)....... hope its opened more eyes to the DFS world for those that never did it too.



DVOA metrics now updated in original post.
 
I'll be up in poconos for the weekend, but will be checking in on saturday atleast but I won't be able to get out detailed thoughts like usual.

So I've upgraded the pace of play numbers/DFS notable injuries.

Here's a quick hitter on the best ASR Dlines (at attacking)/Olines (at defending). and the best ALY Olines (at attacking)/Dlines (at defeding).... they're ranked from best to worst. Its been talking about... but that cincy Oline is BY FAR the worst unit out there at defending the pass rush. I've ranked them in the notes above, but this may be better to you if you want to see it, while brady's is definitely the best.

Of course the best Oline push (dallas) is vs the best Dline push (sfo) ..... AND the worst Oline push (pit) goes against the worst Dline push (kcc)... wish sfo/dal didn't draw eachother, but I guess thats good for my zona future.

1642081964612.png
 
ScopeY said:
I'll be up in poconos for the weekend, but will be checking in on saturday atleast but I won't be able to get out detailed thoughts like usual.

So I've upgraded the pace of play numbers/DFS notable injuries.

Here's a quick hitter on the best ASR Dlines (at attacking)/Olines (at defending). and the best ALY Olines (at attacking)/Dlines (at defeding).... they're ranked from best to worst. Its been talking about... but that cincy Oline is BY FAR the worst unit out there at defending the pass rush. I've ranked them in the notes above, but this may be better to you if you want to see it, while brady's is definitely the best.

Of course the best Oline push (dallas) is vs the best Dline push (sfo) ..... AND the worst Oline push (pit) goes against the worst Dline push (kcc)... wish sfo/dal didn't draw eachother, but I guess thats good for my zona future.

View attachment 61214
Click to expand...

Oh I meant to add.... as far as pace goes.... the top 3 (KCC/TBB-PHI/PIT-LAR/ARI) are by far faster than the other 3. CIN/LVR is by far the slowest. If SFO dictates the pace/plays with a lead, I'd expect it to stay under, but if it DAL does, I'd expect it to go over, as they are are the opposite ends of the pace spectrum. Same for NEP/BUF (Buf is faster/Nep is slower) but its not as extreme as the other 2 mentioned
 
survive&advance said:
Two props I’ve taken so far are mac Jones under 210.5 and under 19.5 completions
Click to expand...

All I’ve played so far is some td scorers. DK was just starting to get the others out yesterday and it was annoying me seeing a few guys but not others so I just said the hell with it and wait till everything out, hopefully that today, havnt checked yet:

Td scorers I played the other day:

Mixon -165
Waller+200
Harris +120
Allen +180
Hurts +190
Debo -115

I’m sure I’ll prob have few more later but those were prices I felt like would prob only move against me/saw lot of value.
 
ScopeY said:
Oh I meant to add.... as far as pace goes.... the top 3 (KCC/TBB-PHI/PIT-LAR/ARI) are by far faster than the other 3. CIN/LVR is by far the slowest. If SFO dictates the pace/plays with a lead, I'd expect it to stay under, but if it DAL does, I'd expect it to go over, as they are are the opposite ends of the pace spectrum. Same for NEP/BUF (Buf is faster/Nep is slower) but its not as extreme as the other 2 mentioned
Click to expand...

I totally expect niners to dictate in that game, they gonna impose their will on Dallas.
 
I def wanted to play playoff Lenny to score I just wasn’t real confident in his health yet so waiting till I hear for sure he can handle full workload.
 
i dunno wtf to do with the eagles/bucs props thanks to the potential for crappy weather, guess gonna just sit tight on that one and see how it looks on game day.
 
2daBank said:
All I’ve played so far is some td scorers. DK was just starting to get the others out yesterday and it was annoying me seeing a few guys but not others so I just said the hell with it and wait till everything out, hopefully that today, havnt checked yet:

Td scorers I played the other day:

Mixon -165
Waller+200
Harris +120
Allen +180
Hurts +190
Debo -115

I’m sure I’ll prob have few more later but those were prices I felt like would prob only move against me/saw lot of value.
Click to expand...

Almost all these numbers tad worse when I went today, Not that it means much but it does make me feel good! Lol,

Today I played bunch of yardage props (and another td prop + Allen passing tds). Here the stuff I added:

Singletary to score +110
Allen ov 1.5 td passes -110 (I know I’m not gonna cash all the bills td props I played I don’t see much chance they score 4 tds for both singletary and Allen to cash plus Allen throwing 2, not gonna happen. Think I can get 2 of 3 tho and with the prices it made sense). Maybe I really luck out and Allen throws 1 to singletary, that be the tits!! Lol

Mixon over 20.5 receiving (shoulda got sooner lost a few yards)
Waller ov 60.5 rec
Renfro ov 55.5 rec
Boyd ov 41.5 rec

I passed on chase/higgens cause think only one of them hits and not sure which!! I do like the check down guys tho as raiders forced lot of this the 1st meeting. Considered the cincy te also but passed.

Singletary ov 14.5 rec
Singletary ov 63.5 rush

Think that everything for today! Gl everyone.
 
Pretty good day. Mixon not scoring hurt and singetary getting 3 grabs for 13 was a kick in nuts but can’t win them all.
 
You guys see these supposed winds in tampa 2marro? Don’t we have to play the passing game unders??
 
Dunno where everyone is? Lol, I went nuts today. Let’s see if I can think of whole card!

Brady un 272.5
Hurts under 191.5
Brady ov 26.5 completions
Hurts under 29.5 attempts
Gronk ov 60.5 rec
Brate ov 15.5 rec

Td scorers in phi:tb

Gronk ev
Brate +400
Hurts +190

Dak under 281.5
Debo ov 30.5 rush
Cooper over 59.5 rec
Schultz ov 41.5 rec
Kittle ov 50.5 rec
Aiyuk ov 49.5 rec
Juszczyk ov 7.5 rec

Td scorers

Debo -115
Mitchell -110
Kittle +150
Cooper +150
Schultz +175
 
Gronk to get 6 catches seems pretty easy to attain. Evans 80+ +240 /o100+520 small

I like the SF Dallas game for props. I think yds over on so many are worth a look.


One I've been looking at all day is goedert. Yds over 53.5 and +250 anytime. TB vs tight ends with a pulse and 5+ targets

Dawson KNox 9 7-60-td

Pitts 7 4-48. other meeting 6 targets 5-73

Doyle 7 6-81 1td

Kmet 6 5-43

I could see him hitting both yds & td
 
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