sup dudes I queried the database and found out that Since 2007 AZST is 3-23 SU and 11-14-1 ATS as the underdog in conference play. The three wins were at Washington in 2010 and at Arizona in 2010 and 2012. When you break those down to home games they are 0-8 SU and 4-3-1 ATS as the in-conference dog.
I did UCLA in a ML parlay with Miami (FL). Sagarin numbers say that game should be duke -7. Yet the book opened Miami as a 7-point favorite. And a shitload of people bet duke, like 60-70% of the betting public. So I took Miami.