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NFL Week 18 DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
More to this week than others as we need to know motivation/rested players/etc.... so just getting quick summaries down, as it'll be a headache to completely do the rest/injuries. So there might be errors in the players named, and maybe the pace will be off a bit (specifically if a QB is out) but the gist should be the same.

Sat 2 Game Slate

KCC/DEN

KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
DEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 11th, O/U is T-3rd.
Mahomes has the 9th best ASR matchup.
Helaire? has the T-2nd best ALY matchup. Jav. Will? has the T-5th (3 way tie) best ALY matchup.

DAL/PHI

DAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
PHI DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 9th.
Dak has the T-4th best ASR matchup.
Zeke has the 4th best ALY matchup. Scott? Has the 8th best ALY matchup.

Sun 1 PMs

IND/JAC

IND DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
JAC DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 13th. O/U is T-5th (3 way tie).
Wentz has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Lawrence has the 8th best.
Taylor is T-2nd best ALY matchup.

CIN/CLV

CIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
CLV DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 15th, O/U is 15th.
Burrow? has the 4th worst ASR matchup. Baker? has the 8th worst.

TEN/HOU

TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 14th. O/U is 8th.
Mills has the 5th worst ASR matchup. Tanny has the 10th worst.
Burkhead has the 4th worst ALY matchup.

WAS/NYG

WAS DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U is 16th.
Gibson? has the T-9th best ALY matchup. Barkley? has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.

PIT/BAL

PIT DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
BAL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 6th (surprised me), O/U is T-10th.
Lamar? has the worst ASR matchup. Big Ben has the 7th best.
Najee has the worst ALY matchup. Freeman? has the T-7th worst.

CHI/MIN

CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
MIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U is T-5th.
Fields? has the 2nd worst ASR matchup.

GBP/DET

GBP DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
DET DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 16th, O/U is T-3rd.
Rodgers has the best ASR matchup.
A. Jones has the best ALY matchup. Swift? has the T-9th best.

Sun 4 PMs

NYJ/BUF

NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 12th.
Allen has the T-4th best ASR matchup.
Singletary has the T-5th best ALY matchup. Carter? has the 6th worst ALY matchup.

NEP/MIA

NEP DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 12th. O/U 13th.
Gaskin? has the 9th worst ALY matchup.

CAR/TBB

CAR DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is T-10th.
Darnold? has the 3rd worst ASR matchup.
Chubba has the T-2nd worst ALY matchup.

SFO/LAR

SFO DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
LAR DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U T-5th.
Garop? has the 9th worst ASR matchup.

SEA/ARI

SEA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
ARI DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is 2nd.
Wilson has the 6th worst ASR matchup. Kyler has the 6th best ASR matchup.
Edmonds? has the 5th worst ALY matchup.

NOS/ATL

NOS DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
ATL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 10th. O/U 14th.
Ryan has the 7th worst ASR matchup. Taysom has the 10th best ASR matchup.
M. Davis? has the T-2nd worst ALY matchup.

Sun Night

LAC/LVR

LAC DVOA Matchup great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
LVR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th. O/U 1st.
Herbie has the 3rd best ASR matchup.
Jacobs has the T-5th best ALY matchup.
 
Thanks for getting this rolling already!

Several discrepancies pace and totals.

I've had great success this year studying those and finding a sneaky total week
 
Jacobs props all day. I’ll prob look at some parts of chargers passing game also, eckler should do damage in receiving game I would think.
 
Gotta think bills continue this trend of giving singietary a lot of work to prove they can run the ball. Missed the boat not playing any specials on him last week. His rush total has jumped from 54 last week to 72 this week but still think it too low considering competition and line. I can’t imagine they worried bout resting him since he rested for the 1st 15 weeks!!
 
I cashed that 12-1 on Williams in the 1st meeting against kc with over 100 rush 50 receiving but of course Gordon was out and even more importantly teddy b was playing qb. I don’t think you want any part of any donks w Lock playing qb, no team respects the pass and he incapable of getting 1st downs to extend drives. He killed Williams since he been in. Not only with no room to run but he even incapable of getting him the ball on check downs!!
 
why are eagles gonna play Hurts if he dealing with a ankle injury? pretty much all their backs out, sanders hurt while scott and howard on covid, feel like this could be a sneaky over considering the guys dallas missing on d but i rather have minshew for a total or props, i could def get behind some minshew passing props if he was to start but not sure it gonna happen.
 
not sure how much we can trust dallas offensive guys to play but seems like they might wanna try and get the passing game going. dk doesnt even have individual yardage totals up for this one, td scorers all i see, that sucks but they do this a lot with uncertainty, they scared!!
 
Sat 2 Game Slate

"KCC/DEN

KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
DEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 11th, O/U is T-3rd.
Mahomes has the 9th best ASR matchup.
Helaire? has the T-2nd best ALY matchup. Jav. Will? has the T-5th (3 way tie) best ALY matchup."

- KCC - On OL, Niang is out.
- DEN - 1st week w/o S (Jackson), DE (Harris), CB (Surtain), CB (Hairston), 2nd week w/o CB (Darby). On OL, Risner is out (probably 2nd best OL)

DFS Notable injuries
No Teddy.
No Helaire.

WEATHER - Is fine, max 10mph winds.

Gordon/Williams are both in a true 50/50 split. Last week one had 14 total carries/targets, the other 15 total carries/targets. Its a pick a pray option if you go this route.

I really like what I saw out of fant in the second half of the game, and I hope lock continues to lock into him, and with the other WRs back.. maybe it takes some coverage off of him.... He could be a pivot off kelce/schultz, or maybe a 2 te lineup can differentiate. 5-50 seems like a safe floor.

Way back when, I preferred d-rob over pringle based off snaps.... and finally it looked like pringle.... but of course last week robinson plays 2/3rds of snaps to pringles 1/2th..... wtf. If you go the secondary route from the big 2, I'd think robinson would be your guy, but who knows.

With all that being said, Kelce/Hill still make up 50%+ of the targets/airyards. when they're both in, and they are the ones you want to try to get in. The broncos secondary is decimated... and if we can find out exactly where callahan will be (he's been a slot man), we just need to avoid him.

I will be on Darrel Williams no doubt.... he played 80% of snaps last week..... gore saw his 2nd lowest snap count last week in the 7 games he's played in. (and 2 of those games included williams AND helaire). 14 FPs w/o a TD seems super safe to acheive.




"DAL/PHI

DAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
PHI DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 9th.
Dak has the T-4th best ASR matchup.
Zeke has the 4th best ALY matchup. Scott? Has the 8th best ALY matchup."

- DAL - 1st week w/o LB (Parsons), CB (Brown), CB (Diggs), S (Kearse), S (Wilson) (assuming wilson, as he didn't travel with the team...he's Q). On OL, no Smith.
- PHI - 1st week w/o LB (Singleton), LB (Avery), DT (Cox), CB (Maddox), S (McLeod), S (Epps). On OL, no Herbig, Dickerson/Johnson are Q.

DFS Notable injuries
No Gallup, Pollard, Jarwin.
No Howard/Scott/Sanders. No Stoll/Goedert.

WEATHER - Beautiful

It looks like Gainwell will get the workload by default, with his 3 superiors all out. Idk if we can avoid him.

No Goedert, leaves Stoll, most likely, with some tyree Jackson. I don't think I'll go here, but if I need salary relief, maybe Stoll can fit the script.

DeVonta Smith is the only WR on this team that is close to an every down player... for reference, he played 95% last week, and been 85%+ most of the season..... Watkins/Reagor were 51% last week... I do think Watkins has the most upside if you search downwards, he has had weeks over 80%, but both have had aDOTs over 10 past many weeks. Don't think I'll go there though.

With no Pollard, We know in a typical game Zeke is in line for a 66%~ split (last time pollard was out recently, clement took pollards role entirely). But there's also a scenario where A) Dal blows out Philly, B) Philly blows out Dal, or C) They rest Zeke because really the game doesn't change toooooo much for them whether they win or lose. What I'm alluding to, is I think if multi entering, there's a case to play Clement in DFS.

Cooper>Lamb>>>Wilson. Play your choice but I may one off at best. I want more Schultz than anything, Philly has been bad vs TEs, and he is an everydown TE.

Dar. Williams Rush Yds O57.5 -115
N. Fant Rec Yds O38.5 -115


No props yet in the DAL/PHI game but I want schultz, and gainwell props (most likely), maybe devonta
 
i cant get on board with fant just cause Lock is so freaking terrible. any qb i had any faith in id be all over that number but man i hate lock!! id love to get all kind of passing props in the dallas/philly game but my guess is draft kings wont offer any.
 
my only worry with williams is kc getting out to a early lead im a little nervous we see that gore kid in 2nd half as we have before in mop up duty.
 
this gonna be a pretty tough week overall to find a lot of props i would think, hoping i can at least key in on a few real nice looking ones. jacobs over 60.5 rush yards is a must if ya think raiders have any chance in the nightcap,.
 
thinking really hard about getting some trevor Lawrence this week, 208.5 doesnt seem like that big a ask and really think this game way more competitive than line suggest. 4 of the last 6 he has attempted 38 or more passes, he comes close to that he should fly past this total.
 
2daBank said:
my only worry with williams is kc getting out to a early lead im a little nervous we see that gore kid in 2nd half as we have before in mop up duty.
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gore number is 26.5, if ya think kc playing with a lead he should hit that pretty easy, with big leads vs raiders then pitt he got plenty of run and went for 66 and 44 in those games. think the question is simply can kc score enough to get that lead? certainly dont think donks scoring much more than 10-14. how long can donks d hold up if lock isnt keeping them on the field much? feel like kc gonna blitz the living hell out of him and it gonna be ugly.
 
dont you think Gore snap count last week was directly related to game flow/situation? even tho they took a early lead they were never really in a spot where they could try and salt the game away like they had been in previous weeks when gore saw close to or dd carries, feel like today has makings of looking a lot more like the previous weeks against raiders and steelers than it does looking like bungals game. especially with donks corners being out feels like a game they jump all over the slow starting donks and then go into run mode in which i would think gore sees a lot of 2nd half work.. obviously if donks stay close it be a williams game but not sure i expect that.
 
2daBank said:
dont you think Gore snap count last week was directly related to game flow/situation? even tho they took a early lead they were never really in a spot where they could try and salt the game away like they had been in previous weeks when gore saw close to or dd carries, feel like today has makings of looking a lot more like the previous weeks against raiders and steelers than it does looking like bungals game. especially with donks corners being out feels like a game they jump all over the slow starting donks and then go into run mode in which i would think gore sees a lot of 2nd half work.. obviously if donks stay close it be a williams game but not sure i expect that.
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Don't hate the idea, just if you're playing for a blowout, maybe those secondary guys you want to play as well (like the pringles of the world)...... but even n the 4 weeks where gore/williams played WITHOUT helaire, the splits went 64/54/54/59 darrel, 7/20/15/14 gore.... gore in his 6 games he's played never exceeded 30%.... I won't chance it, but if you're doing it, go all in with the script for that lineup, as if it works, itll be so highly leveraged.
 
ScopeY said:
Don't hate the idea, just if you're playing for a blowout, maybe those secondary guys you want to play as well (like the pringles of the world)...... but even n the 4 weeks where gore/williams played WITHOUT helaire, the splits went 64/54/54/59 darrel, 7/20/15/14 gore.... gore in his 6 games he's played never exceeded 30%.... I won't chance it, but if you're doing it, go all in with the script for that lineup, as if it works, itll be so highly leveraged.
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Halaire is still out isnt he?
 
2daBank said:
Gotta think bills continue this trend of giving singietary a lot of work to prove they can run the ball. Missed the boat not playing any specials on him last week. His rush total has jumped from 54 last week to 72 this week but still think it too low considering competition and line. I can’t imagine they worried bout resting him since he rested for the 1st 15 weeks!!
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I don't think he's a good play this week. 72 is too high, Allen off a bad (and unlucky) passing game. Daboll was asked about the successful run game as of late and said "We're still a passing team". I think they look to get Allen in a rhythm early and lean on the run to close it out. Devin is balling and could pass the #, but he might get more screens/passes this game. I do think they rest him and give Moss more carries down the stretch. PLus you have to contend with McKenzie reverses and Trubisky runs if the game gets out of hand. Last week was a weird game and the odds Singletary gets 23 carries in a game again this year are slim.

I'm looking into a couple Bills props I'll be back with some reasoning
 
Are there any players near milestones? (like 111 more receiving yards to break "x" record, or to get over 1K, etc.).

ESPN told me Big Ben is 3 TDs away from trying Marino, could see the reason for that (or a 4 TD) game if given opportunities in the redzone.

Chase is 45 yards away from breaking the rookie record.

Sun 1 PMs

"IND/JAC

IND DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
JAC DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 13th. O/U is T-5th (3 way tie).
Wentz has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Lawrence has the 8th best.
Taylor is T-2nd best ALY matchup."

- IND - On D, 1st Week w/o CB (Rhodes), 3rd week w/o S (Sendejo), Buckner is Q.
- JAC - On D, 2nd week w/o LB (Russell), S (Wingard), S (Ford), 3rd week w/o DE (McCray). On OL, 2nd week w/o Richardson/Robinson/Linder.

DFS Notable injuries
No Arnold/O'Shaughnessy. Still no JRob/Hyde too.

WEATHER - Beautiful, max 10~ MPH winds.

Taylor can go off whenever, idk if I can justify paying the salary for him, there are more scenarios where there's a blowout then most of the other games today, and Taylor has seen his snaps decline in 2 straight weeks (from 98%, to 79%, to 71%), and these were in competitive games, he's also seen his targets go to virtual 1/game in his last 4...... not sure it makes sense. Having said all that, he's capable of 150+ total yards and 2 tds+... think it can make or break either way. My prediction is most see it as a must win game for the colts, and that they will run him into the ground.... I'd rather pivot from the overexposure he will see with the possible red flags I mentioned.

Pittman has become an everydown player recently... in his last 4, he has averaged 8~ targets/g, unfortunately, his aDOT has dropped significantly (6.8 in that stretch), but aside from pittmans funnel heavy targets on this team, everyone elses share is spread so thin... even with the high aDOTs of hilton/pascal, pittman still has 37%~ market share of targets, and 34%~ of air yard share. I think it's him or nobody. But go for the homerun hit in hilton/pascal if you'd like.

Doyle is back, pass on Cox.

Ogun looks to be in a 2/3rds split in time share..... even still, he had 11 total carries/targets, and his TD came on a last drive 28 yard catch when down 50-3. Without that, he finished with 10 total carries/targets totaling 40 total yards. I would have liked to see lawrence throw to him more than twice in a game they played from behind..... Now if he's still cheap, and you want to punt the position, I won't fault you for going here.

Jones>Treadwell>Austin were the snap leaders at WR. I prefer treadwell of the bunch. But both the top 2 had 6 targets 76 air yards. So its a coinflip... give me the cheaper guy.

Farrell was the TE snap leader, but he got 2 targets, pass.

CIN/CLV

CIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
CLV DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 15th, O/U is 15th.
Burrow? has the 4th worst ASR matchup. Baker? has the 8th worst.

- CIN - A Boatload.
- CLV - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Takitaki), CB (Ward), LB (Smith), 2nd week w/o DT (Jackson)

DFS Notable injuries
Burrow/Mixon are out.
Baker is out, Njoku/Hunt are Q.

WEATHER - 20 MPH winds, with gusts getting the 30s.

I don't think I want a big part in the cincy offense. I know I mentioned above chase needs 50~ yards, and with the wind impact, he may get it on short/low air yard throws, so for ppr formats, he can be considered. I guess Perine is actually a good start, he should be used a bunch, he's cheap, and can catch. He has a safe path to 15+ FPs without a td.

I want to play Chubb... I'm concerned about his 42% snaps last week, and best case may be capped at 60%. But can we trust/stomach are lineups playing D'ernest? I don't know..... If multi-entering play 1 of them, as I think they/one can have success with the missing players all over cincy, and the shitty throwing conditions... but for 1 lineup, may have to look elsewhere.

TEN/HOU

TEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 14th. O/U is 8th.
Mills has the 5th worst ASR matchup. Tanny has the 10th worst.
Burkhead has the 4th worst ALY matchup.

- TEN - 1st week w/o DT (Jones), DT (Tart)
- HOU - 1st week w/o S (Owens), S (Arnold), S (Reid).

DFS Notable injuries

WEATHER - Not bad at all, low chance of rain, 10mph winds.

Ummm.. most win spot.... big faves.... Foreman cemented himself as the lead back with finally gettting the bulk of the snaps (65%)... and he did this in a similarly projected gamescript this week... Yes Please! His ppr value is 0 to 2 catches probably, but he is a lock for 100+ rushing yards... and has multi TD upside. I will note, Swaim had his first 90%+ snap share, but is averaging like 3~ targets a game, I wouldn't do it.

I play cooks, he sucks, I pass on him, he smashes..... The guys averaging 10.3~ targets/g his last 3..... he probably gets 10+ today too.... your choice, but he's not a bad PPR option.



WAS/NYG

WAS DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U is 16th.
Gibson? has the T-9th best ALY matchup. Barkley? has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.

- WAS - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Kunaszyk), 2nd week w/o DE (Sweat), 3rd week w/o CB (Jackson III). On OL, no Charles.
- NYG - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Smith). On OL, 2nd week w/o Peart.

DFS Notable injuries
No RSJ, no Samuel.
No Ross/Toney/Pettis/Shep. No Glennon/Jones.

WEATHER - Some rain, 10~ mph winds. Colt.

In 1 half of play, Fromm targetted Toney 6 times, and golladay/slayton combined for 5 targets... no toney, I can see 1 of the 2 producing ok for PPR, but great if one gets a TD. Goodluck guessing.. I'd save for multi-entering only. Maybe do a Fromm + Golladay or Slayton, with Mac5 bring back? (or Gibson).

I'm not wasting the roster spot on the 50/50 time share (rinse and repeat).

I'd save washington for gibson and/or maclaurin.


PIT/BAL

PIT DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
BAL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 6th (surprised me), O/U is T-10th.
Lamar? has the worst ASR matchup. Big Ben has the 7th best.
Najee has the worst ALY matchup. Freeman? has the T-7th worst.

- PIT - On OL, No Moore.
- BAL - On D, 2nd week w/o CB (Averett).

DFS Notable injuries
No Washington
No Lamar, no Boyle.

WEATHER - Chance of rain, no wind.

In weeks 11/14/15/17 where Huntley played... Andrews averaged 10 targets/game, 103 yards/game. that could equate to a floor of 20 points at the TE position.... You could one-off him, or possibly pair with huntley, atleast he has dualthreat upside, which makes him have a safe floor, and big potential.

I'm off Najee.... based off the top of this post, I think they try to use big ben in the redzone here.... plus he has a terrible ALY matchup. Let someone else pay for his price. On top of the record he could break... ben actually has a really nice DVOA matchup, and 7th best ASR matchup, and the pace is good!.... so its not like he cant do it... I will play him a bit, won't go overboard.... but I think its worth the chance (can complete it with an andrews bring back for a game stack).

While RayRays targets are 2nd best over last 4 weeks.... his aDOT has plummetted to 4.2. That's bad. Diontae is a PPR machine, and gets thrown to wherever... and Claypool has the highest aDOT WITH washington out. So I'd assume he still would be more of the deepshot man now and would be the 2 I consider for the stack (or one-offS).

CHI/MIN

CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
MIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U is T-5th.
Fields? has the 2nd worst ASR matchup.

- CHI - 1st week w/o DE (Hicks).
- MIN - 1st week w/o LB (Kendricks), DT (Pierce), CB (Hand), S (Bynum). 2nd week w/o DE (Bower).

DFS Notable injuries
No Fields
No Thielen, no Herndon.

WEATHER - Dome

They were blown out, and never ran the ball again last week... but Cook only played 54% of snaps... do they limit him here at all? If we can expect a full workload, I love the spot, I like that it's in a dome, its a healthy O/U, and he has a good DVOA matchup. Having said that, I have interest in Jefferson and his every down role, Osborn can be considered. Conklin could be considered as he is also an every down player but with cousins, he's reached over 5 targets in a game once in their last 7 starts together.

Weeks 12/13/17 Mooney and Kmet combined for 46%+ target share, and 51%+ air yards share.... both games Dalton started. Minny is a bit better at defending the TE, but I want some shares of mooney here, as he averaged 9.3 T/G, and finished with an aDOT >10.

Montgomery does it all, and they do look his way in the redzone... I don't hate playing him, but I'll probably be under exposed.


GBP/DET

GBP DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
DET DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 16th, O/U is T-3rd.
Rodgers has the best ASR matchup.
A. Jones has the best ALY matchup. Swift? has the T-9th best.

- GBP - On D, 3rd week w/o DT (Keke), LB (Summers).
- DET - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Bryant), some Q's.

DFS Notable injuries
Jones is Q.
Goff/Reynolds are Q.

WEATHER - Dome.

I guess? Rodgers made it easier for us in the fact that he wants to start, and shouldn't be playing the whole game... so pass on the QB situation there. IF Jones is out, fire up dillon, I guess a case can be made for Taylor (3rd string RB)... think Clement yesterday.

Adams kind of falls in line with rodgers... so idk if I can play him. Lazard/MVS can be considered.

Egyptian God Amon-Ra St. Brown, has had at least 11 targets in each of his last 5 games. He also has 5 total tds in those 5 games too (with designed carries thrown in there too). He is the Cooks of Houston, but younger, and probably a bit more reliable with the team around him.

It was a blowout, so I'm concerned of the accuracy in his snap count... but I was also concerned prior to last week.... Swift played just 57% of snaps, Jamal and Reynolds saw 32/22% respectively.... I think swift could be considered but I'd hate to lock him in and see a dud performance, or limited snaps. I think I'll pass on the backfield, and just stick with St. Brown or nothing.
 
yeah i played gronk over 64.5. evans under 72.5, mooney over 53.5, marvin jones over 3.5 catches as well for incentive related stuff
 
Foreman to score a td -105 a crazy good price. Outside the Steelers game where they inexplicably didn’t give him touches in red zone (and it cost them!) he been the guy the last month and this his last chance to be the lead, betting him to score more than 1 prob not a bad idea.
 
Sun 4 PMs

NYJ/BUF

NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is 12th.
Allen has the T-4th best ASR matchup.
Singletary has the T-5th best ALY matchup. Carter? has the 6th worst ALY matchup.

- NYJ - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Huff).
- BUF - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Obada).

DFS Notable injuries
Probably no Sanders.
No Berrios/Moore.

WEATHER - Fine, some wind at times.

Fantastic matchup, playing to win, top 2 team total. We know we can trust Allen, and he should have a relatively safe floor with his rushing upside... and he may be back to vulturing TDs again! Sorry beasley, but I'd rather pair with the ppr/good aDot of Diggs, and or the big aDot of Davis... especiailly with no sanders.

I have to mention singletary here, he now has 80%+ snaps in 3 of his last 4.... he is in as good of a spot as allen, and the game script looks great for him. I will have some singletary... he did finish with 100+/2 TDs last week, but I will be underexposed, and would rather attack the passing attack.

I don't know what to do for JETS WRs.... Crowder/Cole/Smith should be the 3.... I guess Crowder would be only consideration... just pray he doesnt get dinged.

I still do have interest in Carter despite getting shafted last week... the guy looks like a bright spot for this offense and seems to be given ample opportunities to make plays, which he has done.

NEP/MIA

NEP DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 12th. O/U 13th.
Gaskin? has the 9th worst ALY matchup.

- NEP - On D, 1st week w/o LB (HIghtower), S (Duggar), CB (Bryant),
- MIA - On D, 2nd week w/o S (Redwine).

DFS Notable injuries
None really

WEATHER - Chance of rain, 11~ MPH winds.

I don't think I touch this game, maybe a one-off here and there. The NEP backfield is a mess.... Stevenson did finish with 56% of snaps, but it was a BLOWOUT. The pace is slow here, and the defenses may be better than the offenses. MIA backfield is a mess, I don't trust duke, we don't want gaskin...

Waddle/Meyers would be my PPR options, and that's about it.

CAR/TBB

CAR DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is T-10th.
Darnold? has the 3rd worst ASR matchup.
Chubba has the T-2nd worst ALY matchup.

- CAR - On D, 1st week w/o DE (Gross-Matos), 2nd week w/o CB (Gilmore), 3rd week w/o S (Chandler).
- TBB - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Robinson), 2nd week w/o CB (Sherman), LB (Barrett), 3rd week w/o LB (David), LB (Pierre-Paul).

DFS Notable injuries
Anderson is Q.
No Fournette/Bernard/RoJo. No Godwin/AB/Watson.

WEATHER - Beautiful.

"Gronk needs 7 receptions for $500,000 bonus. Expect Brady to get him the ball early and often. Might have this by halftime.

Gronk o6.5 receptions (-130)" Love it @L8kersFan74 .... Gronk has sign his snaps increase over last 3 weeks, to a season high 90% 2 weeks ago, and a new season high of 95% last week..... with missing a ton of other key players, he should be heavily involved prior to the comment mentioned. In that 3 week span, he's averaged 7.7~ targets, and an aDOT of 10.3, which is really nice for a TE. Keep in mind, Brown/Godwin had 27 targets in those 3 games that need to be redistributed. Gronk/Evans would be the only ones I consider, but the secondary guys can be dart throws.

Bell/Vaughn should be in a 50/50 split, they can be considered in a good mathcup, but I'll probably look elsewhere.

I will be on Moore in some fashion, he's averaging 10 T/game, and over 100 air yards in the last 5 games. He goes unnoticed and I think he has a safe ppr floor.

SFO/LAR

SFO DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
LAR DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U T-5th.
Garop? has the 9th worst ASR matchup.

- SFO - On D, 2nd week w/o CB (Lenoir). A lot of Q's.
- LAR - None

DFS Notable injuries
Garop is Q.

WEATHER - Beautiful.

Meaningful game for both teams.

Michel is in an everydown role, and if you think the Rams play with a lead, fire him up with confidence. Do note, this may be his toughest matchup to day, and he's needed 24+ carries to reach over 100+ rushing yards in his last 5 games. So if you think they play from behind, I wouldn't consider him, despite his everydown role.

Kupp can always be considred, its hard to place him lower than 10+/100+ in any game ever this year. So I get it. Jefferson and OBJ continue to be the big aDOT threats though. Jefferson a bit less targets, but deeper throws, OBJ a bit more targets, not as deep (but still healthy aDOT). I'd say flip a coin, but ideally, OBJ is out there more, and is really starting to build a connection with stafford... I'd rather have him.

Is Eli Mitchell back baby?! ... he played limited snaps coming back from injury, but it was also a blow out, and SF knows they need to go for the win... I expect him to ramp up his snaps... barring injury, I don't hate the play.

Aiyuk/Samuel would be my other choices. Idk whats going on with Kittle, but he's been underused last 3, and gets another tough matchup... i'd rather have the andrews/gronks of the world then him here.

SEA/ARI

SEA DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
ARI DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is 2nd.
Wilson has the 6th worst ASR matchup. Kyler has the 6th best ASR matchup.
Edmonds? has the 5th worst ALY matchup.

- SEA - a ton
- ARI - a handful

DFS Notable injuries
No Moore. No Edmonds. Conner is Q.

WEATHER - Perfect

Ertz looks solid, I will have Kyler to Kirk connections here. But if Conner is in... you could go that route (with D) or take a QB/RB/WR team stack. Both Kirk/Ertz have 10+ targets/g last 3~ but the passing attack is in a much better position.

I think seattle will be playing catchup, so I don't want penny in a bad matchup AND a bad script. I'd rather Metcalf over Lockett as a bringback if you go that route.

NOS/ATL

NOS DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
ATL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 10th. O/U 14th.
Ryan has the 7th worst ASR matchup. Taysom has the 10th best ASR matchup.
M. Davis? has the T-2nd worst ALY matchup.

- NOS - On D, 1st week w/o DT (Huggins), CB (Williams). 2nd week w/o CB (Roby). On OL Ramczyk may be coming back (big plus).
- ATL - None

DFS Notable injuries
None
Pitts is Q.

WEATHER - Dome

Callaway could be considered, he's in a good spot, and has lowkey garnered 40% of targets, and 55% of air yards over last 3. Kamara has a path to 80%+ snaps, 15 carries 5+ targets, which could get him to 15~ FPoints without a TD. I don't hate that. Taysom is the interesting one as he has a good floor, and if he vultures the kamara TDs, he can have gpp winning upside, but I'm scared of a blow out, and wont go overboard... I will have shares of Kamara/Hill and maybe a sprinkle of callaway. If you really want a bringback, I'd probably go gage over anyone else. He did have a 7-64 statline in their last meting, and hasn't had less than 5 targets in any of his last 7 games.
 
I played Evans to score a td opposed to yards. Like Gronk rec or yards better for reason mentioned and brate always there to steal a te td from him.
 
I’m not sure penny matchup is all that bad. Zona run d has gotten worse the deeper we get into season. I actually expect that game to be tight, I’d be pretty shocked if game script got away from seattle running the ball, they been the best in league the last month. Actually prefer side to props tho. Seattle getting +6 redic imo
 
2daBank said:
I’m not sure penny matchup is all that bad. Zona run d has gotten worse the deeper we get into season. I actually expect that game to be tight, I’d be pretty shocked if game script got away from seattle running the ball, they been the best in league the last month. Actually prefer side to props tho. Seattle getting +6 redic imo
Click to expand...
i was thinking same thing. seattle has a decent amount of guys out on defense though, only thing that worries me
 
Interested in Ertz over 44.5 rec ydg, OBJ over 48.5 rec ydg, Jacobs over 60.5 rush ydg, Foreman (haven't seen number), Andrews pass rec ydg?, Gronk rec ydg and catches.
 
I am going with MVS to score a TD in GB +350 and a super small flyer on Amari Rodgers to score a TD at +450

MVS has kind of been absent the past 3-4 weeks and this is a good opportunity for Aaron to get him back in the mix before the playoffs, plus I don't think he will exit when Aaron does.

The Amari Rodgers bet is stemming from comments by Matt Lafleur that he will be more involved in the offense this week and with Jordan Love likely to play, that combo has some practice time under their belts with the no. 2's - I don't expect this to hit but at +450 why not
 
teejay said:
I am going with MVS to score a TD in GB +350 and a super small flyer on Amari Rodgers to score a TD at +450

MVS has kind of been absent the past 3-4 weeks and this is a good opportunity for Aaron to get him back in the mix before the playoffs, plus I don't think he will exit when Aaron does.

The Amari Rodgers bet is stemming from comments by Matt Lafleur that he will be more involved in the offense this week and with Jordan Love likely to play, that combo has some practice time under their belts with the no. 2's - I don't expect this to hit but at +450 why not
Click to expand...

I like the thinking, always sharp to find a guy who most likely been paired up with the backup qb in practice. I had to think for a second who the fuck Amari Rodgers even was, lol. He played for clemson right? Where did they draft him? He has hardly seen field at all has he? Obviously you would think he would today if/when pack pull starters.
 
Td scorers:

Foreman -105 (biggest bet)
Evans -115
Damien Harris-115
Singletary -110
Obj +150
Friermuth +200
Debo +120
Taylor/eckler parlay +114
 
Can’t beat the price with Odell, he been a td machine and they keep giving us +150 every week.
 
i have way too many bets today- i don't think i went overboard on my dollar amounts but jeezus- too much -- will just enjoy the action-
 
2daBank said:
Td scorers:

Foreman -105 (biggest bet)
Evans -115
Damien Harris-115
Singletary -110
Obj +150
Friermuth +200
Debo +120
Taylor/eckler parlay +114
Click to expand...
I was wondering if I should go Odell or Jefferson on Rams. Also, who do we think on Cardinals in the WR/TE group gets in the end zone?
 
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