NFL Week 14 discussion

I can't make heads or tails of this one. Lean Under, but who knows. Good luck to anyone who plays it....
 
I assume Kubiak is coaching for his job next year. The only way that happens is if Keenum has a great stretch run, and Kubiak can convince management that he is responsible for Keenum's success. So I think HOUS still has motivation in their final games.

I doubt Bradley gets fired after one year. This team is just looking to make improvements each week.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I assume Kubiak is coaching for his job next year. The only way that happens is if Keenum has a great stretch run, and Kubiak can convince management that he is responsible for Keenum's success. So I think HOUS still has motivation in their final games.

I doubt Bradley gets fired after one year. This team is just looking to make improvements each week.
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I see most in here leaning JAX and that was my initial thought as well...However, I think that even more than Kubiak, Keenum will still be out to make a name for himself and Ben Tate will be an FA this off season so you know he'll continue to run hard. The game can go either way but I also know Gus Bradley's units always fight hard and this Jags team is know different...I might be on the over.
 
Buying off my play...Dallas/Bears over 49.5...Taking the Under at 49 before it goes even lower. If it lands on 49 ill call it a loss, otherwise no play
 
D-Woww said:
few things. obviously i am a homer here but:

1. Chip has admitted as much that he has to learn how to close games. If you don't think hes up til 5am every night figuring it out, you don't know Chip. It is a flaw for sure, but it will be fixed.

2. At least give them credit for the way they played the first 3 quarters in those games. And yes the GB game was aided by the qb situation, but that performance in Lambeau deserves some credit

3. Talk about counterfeit, how about Matt Stafford? Is he even good? He has good numbers but thats bc of Calvin, not only does he have him as a weapon, but that sure as hell opens up the rest of the field for his other receivers. I think that his funky throwing motion in the cold is going to lead to some ducks.

4. Eagles know Calvin is a beast. I am shocked with this D and Billy Davis has done an unreal job. I think they do the same thing they did with the cards. They take a very logical approach to it. They knew that Floyd and Fitz were going to get theri 80-120 yards and a td. They also knew that that is 14 points, and that wont win a game. Calvin will get his, he may even get over 200, but the birds will focus on shutting down the rest of the offense, and I think they can do it.

Homers point of view, but also from a guy who knows the team. Its not like I bet on them every week. Eagles or no play for me. I do like your under write up. I initially thought over, but this is why I use these forums and the smart people who post before i make plays.
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The problem with Philly is Kelly and his insistence time of possession is a overrated stat, there a reason teams come storming back on them and while they have gotten away w it of late for all of det many many flaws they will carve up a tired Philly d in the 4th..
 
J Galt said:
I tried to tell you all that Geno Smith was a bum last year before the draft....
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I just couldn't believe the jets game plan last week, why they were so hell bent on trying to throw early in that gm baffled me. Geno shouldn't had to attempt 10 passes all gm but while the d kept holding phins off the scoreboard jets insisted on trying to throw, made no sense to me cause the few times ivory did get the ball he got big chunks of yardage. Perfect gm to ground and pound and for reasons unknown to me they choose to do anything but..baffling.
 
2daBank said:
The problem with Philly is Kelly and his insistence time of possession is a overrated stat, there a reason teams come storming back on them and while they have gotten away w it of late for all of det many many flaws they will carve up a tired Philly d in the 4th..
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Yep. Chip runs the fuel tank dry, Birds are gassed by the 4th on both sides of the ball. As I said in the Birds thread, Chip's ignorant view on TOP will bite my team in the ass more times than not. Stafford and Mega should feast late on Sunday.
 
emkee said:
Yep. Chip runs the fuel tank dry, Birds are gassed by the 4th on both sides of the ball. As I said in the Birds thread, Chip's ignorant view on TOP will bite my team in the ass more times than not. Stafford and Mega should feast late on Sunday.
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Blows my mind that someone who by all accounts is really bright takes such a ignorant stance on this subject. I recall the sd gm where they basically gave the gm away by not running any clock and giving sd the ball back w plenty of time when everyone knew there was no way Philly was stopping them. The last 2 weeks they were fortunate enough to be playing qbs that couldn't seal the deal (and a horrible phantom call that negated foles 1st pick), det no strangers to being down late and actually thrive in those situations. If I had any thoughts of betting phi (which I don't) I would seriously consider 1st half opposed to gm cause I really believe even if Philly jumps out to a lead det will walk them down and win late..
 
Total starting to drop now in the Philly game (I see a 53.5 now) as the forecast is holding up for us. High of 34 and 60% chance of snow. Waiter, can I get a side of wind if its not too much to ask?
 
scdoggy said:
Total starting to drop now in the Philly game (I see a 53.5 now) as the forecast is holding up for us. High of 34 and 60% chance of snow. Waiter, can I get a side of wind if its not too much to ask?
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Philly 5 of last 6 UNDER. Their D is much improved. DET really stout vs. run. Philly offense very reliant on run game, so I see them have some trouble this week. I lean under, regardless of weather.

One angle against the UNDER is Calvin. He might destroy this poor Eagles secondary. I could see the Lions getting up early, leading to Chip pressing to score and turning this into a shootout. As you say, the conditions might not allow for an aerial attack.
 
Gorgolon - don't get me wrong - this bet will be a cheek clencher for sure. Both of these teams run fast offenses and with or without the weather are probably going to score some points. This certainly has the ability to be a 34-27 kind of game. Another stat that doesn't look good for the under is the number of plays per game that each offense runs. Detroit actually runs an avg of four plays per game MORE than the Iggles. Lions 3rd in the NFL with 70.1 plays per game, Eagles 12th with 66.1 ppg. I was surprised how far down the list Philly was to be honest.

DWoww - in looking up those numbers Dallas is actually second to last in the NFL in plays per game at 59.8, and Chicago was also in the bottom half. Probably a good thing you got off the Monday night over....
 
scdoggy said:
Total starting to drop now in the Philly game (I see a 53.5 now) as the forecast is holding up for us. High of 34 and 60% chance of snow. Waiter, can I get a side of wind if its not too much to ask?
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i could be ass backwards here but im really hoping the wind stays low and there enough snow that come game day everyone is looking at what i am out my window in stl today and beats this number down under 49 where i would prob jump in and play the over..
 
it may not happen, but ive seen it a bunch of times over the years where everyone wakes up and sees pictures of some heavy snow and beat the total down like crazy...personally ive never felt that snow had a huge negative impact on points and often times actually helps lead to more (just my perception tho, not sure how accurate) . certainly feel like wrs have a big adv in slick conditions plus usually end up with a few extra turnovers that lead to points.. wind certainly another story so will just have to see how it shakes out..
 
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/YyekCd0g8B8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
It is cold as shit here in denver. -10 when we pulled in the garage at 8:30 tonight. Cold enough we're not going skiing tomorrow. How will Manning's female hands do on Sunday?
 
Two Utes said:
It is cold as shit here in denver. -10 when we pulled in the garage at 8:30 tonight. Cold enough we're not going skiing tomorrow. How will Manning's female hands do on Sunday?
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I think his bum ankles will be feeling worse!
 
I'm thinking about taking the UNDER now in Denver before tomorrow comes. When people see the cold weather I think it'll drop a point or two.
 
Looks like the snow won't be coming down in Philly game. Total back up to 54 now. Snow isn't expected to start until 3ish. Not much wind either.
 
Is there any teams that can clinch playoff berth with a win? Love playing teams who r in e situation and know it..ie. Seattle vs nawlins
 
Anyone else think the Vikings/Ravens total is to low? Ravens defense isn't the ravens defense of the past, and the Vikes have been horrendous. They've gone over this number every game this year, except 1.
 
nbafan88 said:
Jordan Reed says he feels a lot better and will play today. That is HUGE for the redskins
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it huge for my fantasy team,, i been scoring enough last 2 weeks w/o him to make playoffs but i need him today or im forced deciding between the likes of myers, laderious green, and tim wright! it also huge for the fact im starting to really like the idea of the over in that gm..
 
scdoggy said:
Looks like the snow won't be coming down in Philly game. Total back up to 54 now. Snow isn't expected to start until 3ish. Not much wind either.
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yea bums me out.. kinda hoping philly jumps out to lead and i can get nice live number on det but at the moment think det is my other leg of 2 team 6 points tease with balty...balty-1/det+8.5 seems like about as solid a tease as there is today..
 
2daBank said:
it huge for my fantasy team,, i been scoring enough last 2 weeks w/o him to make playoffs but i need him today or im forced deciding between the likes of myers, laderious green, and tim wright! it also huge for the fact im starting to really like the idea of the over in that gm..
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Same here. Just put Reed in over clay.

Right now I'm starting Burleson over Demariyus. It's either a genius move or I'm going to be the laughing stock of my league.
 
i thought 6 was crazy..lambs a bad matchup for zona as their front 4 will eat up zona oline and be in plamers grill all week, we all know what palmer does under pressure...zona d outta shut the run down and force clemmons into some mistakes as well.. i think we talking kinda sloppy but entertaining..think the total low as i made it like 24-20 zona..
 
nbafan88 said:
Same here. Just put Reed in over clay.

Right now I'm starting Burleson over Demariyus. It's either a genius move or I'm going to be the laughing stock of my league.
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im assuming has to be ppr?

my wrs deep..i have garcon and fitz in but also have keenan allen, crabtree, and ty on bench.. but i flexed mjd as my rbs deep also :) biggest problem is im going agains guy with foles and graham
 
nbafan88 said:
I don't think a line move from -6 to -4.5 means much. The line did open at -7 though. Fairly even action. Zona wins by double digits IMO
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id be shocked if that happened.. think this a 3-4 point gm.. but over has way more value than a side imo
 
2daBank said:
im assuming has to be ppr?
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Well only .2 pt per reception.

I know how it looks trust me. But Peyton is going to be in temps in the teens and he'll be passing it to welker a ton today... And Denver should dominate the ground game. Just think there is much greater opportunity for Burleson to score a TD than Demariyus. My other receiver is Gordon. And I have Stafford going over romo. And CJ2k and brown as my RBs... Reed at TE and Rainey at flex... Forced to bench vareen
 
Thoughts on Matt Ryan playing almost zero degree weather today? Its going to be fucking cold in GB today.
 
Marlo said:
Thoughts on Matt Ryan playing almost zero degree weather today? Its going to be fucking cold in GB today.
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My thoughts are he's a pussy. Thanks for pointing that out. Last weeks game was in a dome. Huge difference today
 
nbafan88 said:
Well only .2 pt per reception.

I know how it looks trust me. But Peyton is going to be in temps in the teens and he'll be passing it to welker a ton today... And Denver should dominate the ground game. Just think there is much greater opportunity for Burleson to score a TD than Demariyus. My other receiver is Gordon. And I have Stafford going over romo. And CJ2k and brown as my RBs... Reed at TE and Rainey at flex... Forced to bench vareen
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Man, NBA. Burleson's coming off a zero catch game. I couldn't do it. I'd also find room for Vereen.
 
aplous said:
Niners down to -1.5 at my book.......played em ML -135.

NO was up to 3.5 now back to to 3.
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i finally got in on panthers +3.5 last time it went there.. really wanted 4 but that never happening.. figure that total will prob continue to climb and def lean under at 47 or better..
 
tipyerbartender said:
Man, NBA. Burleson's coming off a zero catch game.
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Thats a huge plus lol. Philly is going to have their hands full with Megatron. You think they're spending much time planning for Burleson? I don't.

And I don't know about vareen. I can't take out brown or Chris Johnson in place of him. Thinking Rainey since his YPC sucks but he should have TD opportunities and has basically all the rush attempts. Ridley is active and who knows what Bellycheck is thinking
 
Thomas has had so many big games with Manning, you don't know when they're coming. Who foresaw Decker last week? … I think you're overthinking it.
 
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