Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Well, I've spent the better part of the long weekend getting kicked in the nuts in both college and the pros. Something I'm never really a fan of.
Not to mention the fact that you never get used to it. You know, I mean, you'd think maybe after a while you'd be able to say, 'Huh, I got my nuts stomped on today, but that's OK.' But really, you never get used to it. I suppose that has something to do with both them being your nuts and the actual stomping part.
At any rate, let's talk tomorrow.
Cincy ML
I think this is a nice spot for a bad team for a couple of reasons. First, Tennessee just had to travel for MNF, to Denver, and back, now to Cincy. It's not across the country, but it's still a grind. Meanwhile, Cincy has stayed home, had time to think about how much it sucks to get beat by Arizona, and I think they'll be ready. Also, with Chris Henry back, now Cincy can really spread you out. I'm just not sure how Tennessee scores with them.
Bengals Team Total over 22.5
Again, I think they can score. I think they can get to 23. Actually, I think they can get to 30 tomorrow if they try.
Cleveland -3
The only reason I'm taking this is because it's dropped to the three. Otherwise I wasn't crazy about the value. Cleveland has been playing at a pretty high level for weeks now, so it wouldn't shock me if they didn't play all that well tomorrow. But I'm going to try to ride this train one more time into Arizona where, though the better team, I think they'll lose. What worries me here is just that Cleveland's defense is so bad and that Houston's got weapons and there could be a lot of points put up tomorrow. But Cleveland, to me, is more balanced.
Seattle/St. Louis over 45
I'm going to play Seattle, too, but I like this more. Seattle is now throwing the ball pretty consistently and playing for the endzone which they weren't doing early in the year. This means that St. Louis, I believe is going to have to score with them. I think Seattle can get to 28 tomorrow, I think St. Louis can get to 20.
Seattle -3
I hate road favorites, and St. Louis is a better team than the one that started 0-8. Still, while they've had two straight wins, they've been against teams that really aren't that good. Not that Seattle's all that good, but they're mediocre and that should be good enough to win their division. A win here doesn't guarantee them the division, but basically if they win here, and beat Arizona, the division is theirs. That, plus the fact that they're the better of these two teams I'll take 'em.
TB -3
I actually wouldn't be shocked if this game finishes on this number, but Sean Taylor is out, Sellers is out, Thrash is out, this sets up very well for a game TB takes. I think it will be more of a grind than it needs to be, but hopefully they'll put it away early with Garcia taking advantage Taylor being out.
Chicago/Denver under 41
I hate unders. A lot. But I'm going to take a small shot on this one because I think this game is going to just be ugly. Initially I liked Chicago to win, but they're just so God-awful that I really could see either team winning this thing. At this point, I don't care, as long as there's a lot of punting and not a lot of scoring.
SF/AZ over 37
I haven't played this yet, but I probably will assuming the morning goes good and this number gets to the flat 37. I think AZ will have to carry a lot of this, but I think they can.
NO -1
Vinny may not even go. This is the perfect spot for NO to do what they do, not show up at home, or go and lose to Houston, then go on the road and beat someone like Carolina. In theory this would be a great place for Carolina to really rally, to grind it out and step up. But this team sucks. If NO wins they, somehow, remarkably, stay in the hunt for this division. If they don't, they're done, no matter what happens against TB at home next week.
Another thing I like but will probably not play is Oakland/KC over 35. This game either finishes 16-10 or 23-20, or worse. But I have nothing really good to go on other than a hunch, so I'm laying off this over.
I've also had some night game plays all week, but Donovan pulling out of this game really puts those in jeopardy. Oddly enough, the over keeps climbing so maybe I can buy some of that back, maybe I won't need to, but that Eagles TT over 14 now worries me a lot.
I'll add and/or update as needed.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
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I love Turkey Day. I only occasionally even do anything. Which is, I know, sort of contradictory to what you're supposed to do. But it works for me, so there.
There will be more, but for now:
Detroit 3.5/ML
I want to play the over here, too. And maybe I will, however I would have preferred 45. But that doesn't have much to do with the side. From that standpoint, I like a lot about this side. This is the Lions chance to make a statement on national TV and they know it.
All people have seen from this team on national TV for three years seems to be losing, at least that's what jumps to my mind. It's a huge audience for Martz's quest to get back to being a HC, the Lions chance to show the league and the world they're not a joke any more, and they get to do it all at home on Thanksgiving vs. the Packers.
Plus you get Detroit off a home loss, the Pack a couple of impressive home wins, five straight with a lead in the division that really won't be challenged whether they win this game or not.
Might play Dallas later as well and I'll use this thread for the weekend plays as well.
Good luck tomorrow all. Gobble, gobble.
Not to mention the fact that you never get used to it. You know, I mean, you'd think maybe after a while you'd be able to say, 'Huh, I got my nuts stomped on today, but that's OK.' But really, you never get used to it. I suppose that has something to do with both them being your nuts and the actual stomping part.
At any rate, let's talk tomorrow.
Cincy ML
I think this is a nice spot for a bad team for a couple of reasons. First, Tennessee just had to travel for MNF, to Denver, and back, now to Cincy. It's not across the country, but it's still a grind. Meanwhile, Cincy has stayed home, had time to think about how much it sucks to get beat by Arizona, and I think they'll be ready. Also, with Chris Henry back, now Cincy can really spread you out. I'm just not sure how Tennessee scores with them.
Bengals Team Total over 22.5
Again, I think they can score. I think they can get to 23. Actually, I think they can get to 30 tomorrow if they try.
Cleveland -3
The only reason I'm taking this is because it's dropped to the three. Otherwise I wasn't crazy about the value. Cleveland has been playing at a pretty high level for weeks now, so it wouldn't shock me if they didn't play all that well tomorrow. But I'm going to try to ride this train one more time into Arizona where, though the better team, I think they'll lose. What worries me here is just that Cleveland's defense is so bad and that Houston's got weapons and there could be a lot of points put up tomorrow. But Cleveland, to me, is more balanced.
Seattle/St. Louis over 45
I'm going to play Seattle, too, but I like this more. Seattle is now throwing the ball pretty consistently and playing for the endzone which they weren't doing early in the year. This means that St. Louis, I believe is going to have to score with them. I think Seattle can get to 28 tomorrow, I think St. Louis can get to 20.
Seattle -3
I hate road favorites, and St. Louis is a better team than the one that started 0-8. Still, while they've had two straight wins, they've been against teams that really aren't that good. Not that Seattle's all that good, but they're mediocre and that should be good enough to win their division. A win here doesn't guarantee them the division, but basically if they win here, and beat Arizona, the division is theirs. That, plus the fact that they're the better of these two teams I'll take 'em.
TB -3
I actually wouldn't be shocked if this game finishes on this number, but Sean Taylor is out, Sellers is out, Thrash is out, this sets up very well for a game TB takes. I think it will be more of a grind than it needs to be, but hopefully they'll put it away early with Garcia taking advantage Taylor being out.
Chicago/Denver under 41
I hate unders. A lot. But I'm going to take a small shot on this one because I think this game is going to just be ugly. Initially I liked Chicago to win, but they're just so God-awful that I really could see either team winning this thing. At this point, I don't care, as long as there's a lot of punting and not a lot of scoring.
SF/AZ over 37
I haven't played this yet, but I probably will assuming the morning goes good and this number gets to the flat 37. I think AZ will have to carry a lot of this, but I think they can.
NO -1
Vinny may not even go. This is the perfect spot for NO to do what they do, not show up at home, or go and lose to Houston, then go on the road and beat someone like Carolina. In theory this would be a great place for Carolina to really rally, to grind it out and step up. But this team sucks. If NO wins they, somehow, remarkably, stay in the hunt for this division. If they don't, they're done, no matter what happens against TB at home next week.
Another thing I like but will probably not play is Oakland/KC over 35. This game either finishes 16-10 or 23-20, or worse. But I have nothing really good to go on other than a hunch, so I'm laying off this over.
I've also had some night game plays all week, but Donovan pulling out of this game really puts those in jeopardy. Oddly enough, the over keeps climbing so maybe I can buy some of that back, maybe I won't need to, but that Eagles TT over 14 now worries me a lot.
I'll add and/or update as needed.
Good luck tomorrow, everybody.
------------
I love Turkey Day. I only occasionally even do anything. Which is, I know, sort of contradictory to what you're supposed to do. But it works for me, so there.
There will be more, but for now:
Detroit 3.5/ML
I want to play the over here, too. And maybe I will, however I would have preferred 45. But that doesn't have much to do with the side. From that standpoint, I like a lot about this side. This is the Lions chance to make a statement on national TV and they know it.
All people have seen from this team on national TV for three years seems to be losing, at least that's what jumps to my mind. It's a huge audience for Martz's quest to get back to being a HC, the Lions chance to show the league and the world they're not a joke any more, and they get to do it all at home on Thanksgiving vs. the Packers.
Plus you get Detroit off a home loss, the Pack a couple of impressive home wins, five straight with a lead in the division that really won't be challenged whether they win this game or not.
Might play Dallas later as well and I'll use this thread for the weekend plays as well.
Good luck tomorrow all. Gobble, gobble.
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