NFL Week #1 Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Week One is just over 6 weeks away, no time like the present to start breaking down!

Lines are courtesy of BETONLINE -- CLICK HERE FOR A 50% WELCOME BONUS!


Buffalo -1 and 52 @ LA Rams

Baltimore -6 and 45 @ NY Jets

New Orleans -5.5 and 40.5 @ Atlanta

Miami -2.5 and 44.5 VS New England

Cincinnati -6 and 44 VS Pittsburgh

San Francisco -6 and 42 @ Chicago

Philadelphia -4 and 46.5 @ Detroit

Indianapolis -8 and 44 @ Houston

Washington -3.5 and 44 VS Jacksonville

Kansas City -3 and 53 @ Arizona

LA Chargers -3.5 and 52 VS Las Vegas

Green Bay -1.5 and 49 @ Minnesota

Tennessee -6.5 and 44 VS NY Giants

Tampa Bay -2 and 53 @ Dallas

Denver -5 and 42 @ Seattle
 
Couple of quick impressions from yours truly...

10 of the 15 listed games currently are ROAD CHALK

Playoff teams (Arizona and Dallas) start at home as dogs.

As @askias pointed out, the defending champs are an underdog here at home to start the year (+1 -110 @ BOL)
 
Cards dogs and early season Kliff a dog

Kingsbury's third season in Arizona, the Cardinals are 15-5-1 in Games 1 through 7 and 8-18 the rest of the season. At Texas Tech, the Red Raiders were 27-15 in Games 1 through 7 and 8-25 thereafter. Overall, that's 42-20-1 in Games 1 through 7 and 16-43 after. And in all of his nine seasons, his teams had a worse record in the second half of the season than in the first.

this was written last december 29, so they went 1-2 after it last season, bringing his 2nd half cards season record to 9-20
 
Give me Atlanta and the points!

On Wednesday, the Falcons' first day of training camp, quarterbacks coach Charles London said Mariota would be the team's starter under center.
 
guaranteeed said:
Cards dogs and early season Kliff a dog

Kingsbury's third season in Arizona, the Cardinals are 15-5-1 in Games 1 through 7 and 8-18 the rest of the season. At Texas Tech, the Red Raiders were 27-15 in Games 1 through 7 and 8-25 thereafter. Overall, that's 42-20-1 in Games 1 through 7 and 16-43 after. And in all of his nine seasons, his teams had a worse record in the second half of the season than in the first.

this was written last december 29, so they went 1-2 after it last season, bringing his 2nd half cards season record to 9-20
Click to expand...
DHop will control all of this. Have fun!
 
I know it's your little fetish teed but I'd expect the exact opposite this year. Fade early.
 
Updated odds as of August 28...

Sep 8 Thu 2022

07:20 PM
451Buffalo Bills-2½
-120		-140O 52
-110
452Los Angeles Rams
+2½
+100		+120U 52
-110
Sep 11 Sun 2022

12:00 PM
455New Orleans Saints-5½
-108		-220O 42
-110
456Atlanta Falcons+5½
-112		+190U 42
-110
12:00 PM
457New England Patriots+3
-106		+138O 46
-110
458Miami Dolphins-3
-114		-158U 46
-110
12:00 PM
459Cleveland Browns+1½
-110		+110O 41½
-110
460Carolina Panthers-1½
-110		-130U 41½
-110
12:00 PM
461Pittsburgh Steelers+6½
-115		+222O 44½
-110
462Cincinnati Bengals-6½
-105		-262U 44½
-110
12:00 PM
463San Francisco 49ers-7
-110		-285O 42
-110
464Chicago Bears+7
-110		+240U 42
-110
12:00 PM
465Philadelphia Eagles-4
-110		-195O 49
-110
466Detroit Lions+4
-110		+170U 49
-110
12:00 PM
467Indianapolis Colts-8½
-110		-375O 44
-110
468Houston Texans+8½
-110		+305U 44
-110
12:00 PM
469Jacksonville Jaguars+3
-115		+140O 44
-110
470Washington Commanders-3
-105		-160U 44
-110
03:25 PM
471Kansas City Chiefs-3
-130		-175O 53
-110
472Arizona Cardinals+3
+110		+155U 53
-110
03:25 PM
473Las Vegas Raiders+3½
-120		+155O 52
-115
474Los Angeles Chargers-3½
+100		-175U 52
-105
03:25 PM
475Green Bay Packers-1½
-110		-125O 48
-110
476Minnesota Vikings+1½
-110		+105U 48
-110
03:25 PM
477New York Giants+5½
-115		+210O 43½
-115
478Tennessee Titans-5½
-105		-250U 43½
-105
07:20 PM
479Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1
-115		O 50
-110
480Dallas Cowboys+1
-105		U 50
-110
Sep 12 Mon 2022

07:15 PM
481Denver Broncos-6
-115		-240O 42
-120
482Seattle Seahawks+6
-105		+200U 42
+100
 
Square AF but how does a SF/Den teaser not get there? Yeah both road teams but they're playing two of the teams in the running for most likely to have first pick next April.
 
Zeke said:
Square AF but how does a SF/Den teaser not get there? Yeah both road teams but they're playing two of the teams in the running for most likely to have first pick next April.
Click to expand...
Lance on the road doesn’t make me feel comfortable.
 
Never been accused of being a Baker fan but I think he gonna do well here long as McCaffery stays healthy. Can’t believe I’m saying this but I think panthers kick the shit out of the browns. This game just screams Baker will play about as well he can, it his dna to win this game so he can rubs browns noses in it!

It not all bout Baker, certainly helps that browns will be paying panthers qb more than the guy starting for them in this game! That pretty much tells ya who has the qb edge. There a lot more to like than just Faker gettin revenge tho, panthers got plenty of weapons to work with and the way their pieces look I think it just perfect for baker to do what he does best and get the right guys the ball with chances to make plays. The panthers oline the only place I have a little concern against a tough browns d front. I think they have baker in the gun and getting it out to his weapons so fast it will negate the rush, all else fails just check it to mccaffery and let him do his thing

As much I like panthers weapons where I really love them is on the defensive side! They have invested a ton of draft capital on this side the ball and it show. They were good last year, they kinda fell off later in year but they were young, now they all have a year under their belts and just as importantly Horn will be out there this year absolutely taking away half the field! this kid has everything you want to be the next big time shut down corner, life is way easier for a DC when he has a guy he can put on a island and not worry bout his man getting open! I dunno bout you all but I’ve seen Cooper more than enough times to know he will be absolutely no help to brissett in this game! On the road against a lock down corner Cooper will be a total no show, he such a smooth incredibly polished route runner but he don’t have that dog in him. I’ve watch him abandoned Dak so many times in these kind of games! Week 2 at home vs jets after doing nothing this week he will shine! (I’ll be looking for cooper under rec yards week 1, and over week 2!).

After cooper what does brissett have to throw to? Peoples-Jones? That doesn’t scare me! Yes browns will do some work on the ground but it ain’t gonna be easy for Chubb as panthers will be able to dedicate 8 men to stopping him cause Brissett and his guys on the outside not striking fear in these guys w cooper being taken away! I can’t believe I get panthers at home laying less than a fg! I think they win by a td or more! By far my favorite play of week 1!!
 
Immediate starter. I get why the saints did this, I’m sure he wanted to be highest paid Nickel, and he may deserve it. Saints are deep at CB, though. He’s a player though and no one is better on the roster there
 
twinkie13 said:
Immediate starter. I get why the saints did this, I’m sure he wanted to be highest paid Nickel, and he may deserve it. Saints are deep at CB, though. He’s a player though and no one is better on the roster there
Click to expand...
Sad, feel we could’ve gotten a little more in the trade.
 
It’s is funny but I thought he played well. Sorry for the Saints clutter.

Miami WR release was interesting too
 
wiseplayer said:
They screwed up drafting Lance. Other than his athleticism and arm strength what does he do well? Nothing
Click to expand...

I think it gonna work out for them. He can’t be any worse a qb than RG3 and shanny made him a freaking star! until he got hurt then him and his daddy deciding he wasn’t gonna use his legs anymore,,he was gonna be a pocket qb like Peyton manning! How that work out for him? Not shanny fault the goofy Mfer could learn to slide!

Jimmy g forced them into this, if they could trust his health I don’t think they make the move. I’ve heard ppl say that it was a indictment on Jimmy g but Im sure it was the fact he always hurt and every time he went out their season went down the drain, they had to do something! Roster too damn good for the season to be in hands of Jimmy staying healthy!!
 
I’m sure Lance will have some growing pains w the occasional turnover but he will also connect on the shot plays Jimmy tended to miss!!! Just couldn’t hit any hr’s unless one the wr’s took a short pass to the house, this year they might have more 3 and outs but they gonna hit huge plays every game!!
 
twinkie13 said:
Immediate starter. I get why the saints did this, I’m e he wanted to be highest paid Nickel, and he may deserve it. Saints are deep at CB, though. He’s a player though and no one is better on the roster there
Click to expand...

Can’t pay everyone (unless you the rams, they got some straight up geniuses working the cap!(.
 
Interesting promo on DK, where you can bet any team on the ML for opening weekend, and if they lead by at least 10 at any time in the game, you win, regardless of the final result. Creates an interesting opportunity of scanning the card to see who might create such a 10 point lead.
 
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A week 1 Favorite. that will be a week 2 favorite, and in week 2 the game will be a Thursday night game.

week = 1 and F and n:day = Thursday and n:F

1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against Chiefs
 
week = 1 and F and n:D and on:F

A week 1 favorite that will be a week 2 dog and their week one opponent will be favored in week 2 and the week 1 line is greater than -7 (24-51 32% ATS and only 41-37 SU).
Fade :
Dolphins
Panthers
Titans
Chargers
 
week = 1 and D and PRSW>3 and PRSW<7 and n:F ( 39-13, 75%, 24-29 SU)

A week 1 game in which the dog had won between 4 and 6 games last season and will be a week 2 favorite

Play Giants against Tennessee.
 
HD and week < 3 and line < 6 and PRSW > 3 and season>2009

Home dog of less than 6 points in weeks 1 and 2 our home dog must have won more than 3 games last season since 2009

54-26-5 ( 67.5% ATS and 47-37 SU, thats right our home dog wins these games )

qualifying dogs :
Rams
Falcons
Vikings
Cardinals
Cowboys
 
line<=3 and line>0 and season>2009 and week<6 and on: D and n:F


49-18-1 (73.1% and 43-25 SU)

Patriots and Browns
 
week 1 Away favorites are good 17-5 ATS

AF and tpS(playoffs)>0 and week = 1 and not DIV and season>2007 and line>-8 and PRSW<15 and o: PRSW<11

qualify:
49ers
Eagles
 
D and line <7 and DIV and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and season>2003 and week<6

111-61 ATS and 85-91 SU for a nice money line ROI

play Falcons
 
askias said:
Interesting promo on DK, where you can bet any team on the ML for opening weekend, and if they lead by at least 10 at any time in the game, you win, regardless of the final result. Creates an interesting opportunity of scanning the card to see who might create such a 10 point lead.
Click to expand...
I have that one and the Rams/Bills game they have the same deal at 7 pts
 
askias said:
Interesting promo on DK, where you can bet any team on the ML for opening weekend, and if they lead by at least 10 at any time in the game, you win, regardless of the final result. Creates an interesting opportunity of scanning the card to see who might create such a 10 point lead.
Click to expand...
Thinking SF has as good a chance as anyone. Definitely leaning Buffalo for the 7 pt lead deal. Pretty sure they don't lose money on any of these fuckin promos though so I'm always skeptical.
 
They put limits and probably significantly on those props but know they'll get it back tenfold.
 
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