NFL 24
- Thread starter caboto13
- Start date
I got a huge free bet offer (worth 14 u for me for a deopsit of 30 u) available till tomorrow. So I go with a ML parlay
Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Too obvious so probably the Steelers will upset the Ravens, but can't see it. If Ravens and Bills win, I'll have an option to hedge with Commanders ML @130 right now. If one them loses, I won't and there is no risk.
Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Too obvious so probably the Steelers will upset the Ravens, but can't see it. If Ravens and Bills win, I'll have an option to hedge with Commanders ML @130 right now. If one them loses, I won't and there is no risk.
So far:
Chargers -3 @-109 to win 4u
Chargers TT over 21.5 @-105 (10% odds bonus) to win 1.5u
ML parlay Chargers / Eagles @122 to win 2.44u
Texans - Chargers under 42.5 @-115 to win 2u
Risk free bet: Chargers ML / Ravens TT over 26.5 / Bills TT over 27.5 / Bucs ML @666 to win 2.67u
Ravens -9.5 @106 (10% odds boost) to win 2.12u
Ravens TT over 27.5 @100 to win 2u
Ravens - Steelers over 43.5 @-125 to win 2u
2-6 -8,25u
Completely wrong on the Chargers, but I think, if Stroud didn't make the 50yard pass after the missed snap and scrambling, the Chargers win. Game-changing play. Congrats to the Texans who came back from a deep hole.
Pending:
Risk free bet: Ravens ML / Bills ML / Bucs ML @124 to win 2.48u
Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Bucs -3 @-125 to win 2u
Sunday:
Bills TT over 28,5 @-110 to win 4u
Bills -8,5 @-115 to win 1.5u
Bills score every quarter @140 to win 2,1u
Packers +6.5 @-120 to win 2u
Chargers -3 @-109 to win 4u
Chargers TT over 21.5 @-105 (10% odds bonus) to win 1.5u
ML parlay Chargers / Eagles @122 to win 2.44u
Texans - Chargers under 42.5 @-115 to win 2u
Risk free bet: Chargers ML / Ravens TT over 26.5 / Bills TT over 27.5 / Bucs ML @666 to win 2.67u
Ravens -9.5 @106 (10% odds boost) to win 2.12u
Ravens TT over 27.5 @100 to win 2u
Ravens - Steelers over 43.5 @-125 to win 2u
2-6 -8,25u
Completely wrong on the Chargers, but I think, if Stroud didn't make the 50yard pass after the missed snap and scrambling, the Chargers win. Game-changing play. Congrats to the Texans who came back from a deep hole.
Pending:
Risk free bet: Ravens ML / Bills ML / Bucs ML @124 to win 2.48u
Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Bucs -3 @-125 to win 2u
Sunday:
Bills TT over 28,5 @-110 to win 4u
Bills -8,5 @-115 to win 1.5u
Bills score every quarter @140 to win 2,1u
Packers +6.5 @-120 to win 2u
Add:
Bills TT over 13.5 @-120 to win 2u (tailing @Lexington 125)
Nix and Allen over 1.5 td passes @550 (super boost instead of 250) to win 2.75u
Bills -7.5 @-110 to win 2u
Match parlay Cook td, Shakir td, Allen 3+ passing td @1200 to win 6u
Packers ML @220 to win 2.2u
Bills TT over 13.5 @-120 to win 2u (tailing @Lexington 125)
Nix and Allen over 1.5 td passes @550 (super boost instead of 250) to win 2.75u
Bills -7.5 @-110 to win 2u
Match parlay Cook td, Shakir td, Allen 3+ passing td @1200 to win 6u
Packers ML @220 to win 2.2u
Didn't include the Bucs -3 bet into the math.
So far:
Chargers -3 @-109 to win 4u
Chargers TT over 21.5 @-105 (10% odds bonus) to win 1.5u
ML parlay Chargers / Eagles @122 to win 2.44u
Texans - Chargers under 42.5 @-115 to win 2u
Risk free bet: Chargers ML / Ravens TT over 26.5 / Bills TT over 27.5 / Bucs ML @666 to win 2.67u
Ravens -9.5 @106 (10% odds boost) to win 2.12u
Ravens TT over 27.5 @100 to win 2u
Ravens - Steelers over 43.5 @-125 to win 2u
Ravens ML / Bills ML / Bucs ML @124 to win 2.48u
Risk free bet:Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Bucs -3 @-125 to win 2u
Bills TT over 28,5 @-110 to win 4u
Bills -8,5 @-115 to win 1.5u
Bills score every quarter @140 to win 2,1u
Packers +6.5 @-120 to win 2u
Bills TT over 13.5 @-120 to win 2u (tailing @Lexington 125)
Nix and Allen over 1.5 td passes @550 (super boost instead of 250) to win 2.75u
Bills -7.5 @-110 to win 2u
Match parlay Cook td, Shakir td, Allen 3+ passing td @1200 to win 6u
Packers ML @220 to win 2.2u
Commanders ML @140 to win 7u
8-13 +5,57u
Rams +2,5 @-115 to win 1u
Rams - Vikungs under 47.5 @-108 to win 1u
Chargers -3 @-109 to win 4u
Chargers TT over 21.5 @-105 (10% odds bonus) to win 1.5u
ML parlay Chargers / Eagles @122 to win 2.44u
Texans - Chargers under 42.5 @-115 to win 2u
Risk free bet: Chargers ML / Ravens TT over 26.5 / Bills TT over 27.5 / Bucs ML @666 to win 2.67u
Ravens -9.5 @106 (10% odds boost) to win 2.12u
Ravens TT over 27.5 @100 to win 2u
Ravens - Steelers over 43.5 @-125 to win 2u
Ravens ML / Bills ML / Bucs ML @124 to win 2.48u
Risk free bet:Ravens / Bills / Bucs @134 to win 18.76 u
Bucs -3 @-125 to win 2u
Bills TT over 28,5 @-110 to win 4u
Bills -8,5 @-115 to win 1.5u
Bills score every quarter @140 to win 2,1u
Packers +6.5 @-120 to win 2u
Bills TT over 13.5 @-120 to win 2u (tailing @Lexington 125)
Nix and Allen over 1.5 td passes @550 (super boost instead of 250) to win 2.75u
Bills -7.5 @-110 to win 2u
Match parlay Cook td, Shakir td, Allen 3+ passing td @1200 to win 6u
Packers ML @220 to win 2.2u
Commanders ML @140 to win 7u
8-13 +5,57u
Rams +2,5 @-115 to win 1u
Rams - Vikungs under 47.5 @-108 to win 1u
8-13 +5,57u
Rams +2,5 @-115 to win 1u
Rams - Vikungs under 47.5 @-108 to win 1u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Wild-Card Round 10-13 +7,57u
Overall 137-152-2 +56,9u
Divisional Round
First glance: like the Rams as a dog again, Chiefs over, Chiefs ATS and under in the Lions game. No clue regarding the Bills-Ravens game.
Rams +2,5 @-115 to win 1u
Rams - Vikungs under 47.5 @-108 to win 1u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Wild-Card Round 10-13 +7,57u
Overall 137-152-2 +56,9u
Divisional Round
First glance: like the Rams as a dog again, Chiefs over, Chiefs ATS and under in the Lions game. No clue regarding the Bills-Ravens game.
Good work last night.
You mentioned a few posts ago how the 50 yard fumble then bomb changed the Chargers game and you're absolutely right.
What an absolute shift in a game.
The smallest of margins.
Same with that weird snap by TB. They were heading into the EZ to take the lead.
You mentioned a few posts ago how the 50 yard fumble then bomb changed the Chargers game and you're absolutely right.
What an absolute shift in a game.
The smallest of margins.
Same with that weird snap by TB. They were heading into the EZ to take the lead.
Usually posting NFL plays, but today I try German Bundesliga.
Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund
Frankfurt is 3rd winning both games after the winter break with 1:0 at St. Pauli (14.) and 4:1 against Freiburg (8.) at home.
Frankfurt played 8 games at home, winning five, drawing two and lost only one, scored 23 goals and conceded 12.
Dortmund is one of the bigger clubs in Germany playing succesful in the Champions League, but having huge problems right now especially when playing on the road.
Dortmund is 10th of the table, losing both games after the break against Leverkusen (2.) at home (2:3) and at Kiel (17.) 2:4. Defense is very shaky due to injury and illness problems. Situation might have improved for tonight, but there is lots of trouble. Dortmund played 8 games on the road, winning only 1, drawing 2 and lost 5 conceding 18 goals while scoring 10, an aedequate comparison would be the Lions losing on the road against the Pats, Titans, Giants, Browns and Raiders.
Normally a far better team, but they can't show it when playing on the road. Also in the German Cup they lost away at Wolfsburg.
Tuesday Dortmund lost at promoted Kiel trailing 3:0 at half time. Coach Sahin is caught into question and many BVB fans want him being sacked. The team travelled to Frankfurt after the game at Kiel to regroup and recover from this shocking and embarrasing loss. Sahin said, you couldn't substitute the whole team, indicating that that would be what he liked.
So with the bad record and performances on the road, the current atmosphere in the club, dissensions between club and supporters and the short week playing two games on the road in four days against an club, who is usually playing strong at home, I can see a home win today with odds between +140 and +155 (three-way) or -118 (draw no bet).
My only concern right now is the situation of Frankfurts best striker Marmoush, who could be traded to Manchester City this weekend, so probably, according to the media, he won't play tonight. Nevertheless I do expect other strikers i.e. Ekitike to fill in as scorer instead of Marmoush.
I have an open parlay to close with Frankfurt home win @110 (played Tuesday evening after the loss) with 0.8u to win 3.6u und bet Frankfurt to win @115 risking 2u to win 2.3. Rising odds maybe due to the Marmoush situation as I had expected the odds to come down to +100. So I will add:
Pending: Parlay Bochum to win / Frankfurt @450 -> 0.8u to win 3.6u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @115 -> 2u to win 2.3u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @145 -> 2u to win 2.9u
Frankfurt to win (two-way, draw no bet) @-120 ->2.4u to win 2u
Game starts 2:30 p.m. ET. Good luck, if anyone is trailing.
Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund
Frankfurt is 3rd winning both games after the winter break with 1:0 at St. Pauli (14.) and 4:1 against Freiburg (8.) at home.
Frankfurt played 8 games at home, winning five, drawing two and lost only one, scored 23 goals and conceded 12.
Dortmund is one of the bigger clubs in Germany playing succesful in the Champions League, but having huge problems right now especially when playing on the road.
Dortmund is 10th of the table, losing both games after the break against Leverkusen (2.) at home (2:3) and at Kiel (17.) 2:4. Defense is very shaky due to injury and illness problems. Situation might have improved for tonight, but there is lots of trouble. Dortmund played 8 games on the road, winning only 1, drawing 2 and lost 5 conceding 18 goals while scoring 10, an aedequate comparison would be the Lions losing on the road against the Pats, Titans, Giants, Browns and Raiders.
Normally a far better team, but they can't show it when playing on the road. Also in the German Cup they lost away at Wolfsburg.
Tuesday Dortmund lost at promoted Kiel trailing 3:0 at half time. Coach Sahin is caught into question and many BVB fans want him being sacked. The team travelled to Frankfurt after the game at Kiel to regroup and recover from this shocking and embarrasing loss. Sahin said, you couldn't substitute the whole team, indicating that that would be what he liked.
So with the bad record and performances on the road, the current atmosphere in the club, dissensions between club and supporters and the short week playing two games on the road in four days against an club, who is usually playing strong at home, I can see a home win today with odds between +140 and +155 (three-way) or -118 (draw no bet).
My only concern right now is the situation of Frankfurts best striker Marmoush, who could be traded to Manchester City this weekend, so probably, according to the media, he won't play tonight. Nevertheless I do expect other strikers i.e. Ekitike to fill in as scorer instead of Marmoush.
I have an open parlay to close with Frankfurt home win @110 (played Tuesday evening after the loss) with 0.8u to win 3.6u und bet Frankfurt to win @115 risking 2u to win 2.3. Rising odds maybe due to the Marmoush situation as I had expected the odds to come down to +100. So I will add:
Pending: Parlay Bochum to win / Frankfurt @450 -> 0.8u to win 3.6u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @115 -> 2u to win 2.3u
Frankfurt to win (three-way) @145 -> 2u to win 2.9u
Frankfurt to win (two-way, draw no bet) @-120 ->2.4u to win 2u
Game starts 2:30 p.m. ET. Good luck, if anyone is trailing.
So far 3-3 -0.45u
Rams +6 @-115 to win 4u
Played Tuesday, so missed 6.5 or 7 available. Will see, if it matters. Think the Rams can keep it close. Defense has improved since last game at Philly. In my opinion the Rams have a slight advantage at HC and qb and maybe some extra motivation to host an NFC Championship game at LA after the Commanders win.
Weather a little concern for a California team playing in snow and cold, but I'll take the points nevertheless.
Rams +6 @-115 to win 4u
Played Tuesday, so missed 6.5 or 7 available. Will see, if it matters. Think the Rams can keep it close. Defense has improved since last game at Philly. In my opinion the Rams have a slight advantage at HC and qb and maybe some extra motivation to host an NFC Championship game at LA after the Commanders win.
Weather a little concern for a California team playing in snow and cold, but I'll take the points nevertheless.
Divisionals
Chiefs -8.5 @-115 to win 3u
Chiefs - Texans over 41.5 @-110 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @-105 to win 2u
Lions -8 @-115 to win 3u
Lions score every quarter @115 to win 2.3u
Lions - Commanders over 55 @-115 to win 2u
Rams +6 @-115 to win 4u
Rams TT over 19.5 @145 to win 2,18u
Rams score every quarter @425 to win 2.13u
Eagles score every quarter @165 to win 1.65u
ML parlay Bills / Rams @600 to win 3u
Bills TT over 25.5 @-117 to win 3u
Bills - Ravens over 51.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bills +1.5 @-115 to win 2u
Parlay: Allen scores TD, Jackson scores TD, Bills TT over 19.5, Ravens TT over 19.5 @600 to win 3u
8-6-1 +7.86u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 18-19-1 +15.43u
Overall 145-158-3 +64,76u
Championship
Free bet (worth 0.4u) ML parlay: Commanders / Bills @500 to win 2u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-120 to win 3u
Bills ML @100 to win 1u
Super Bowl
Bills @260 to win 7.8u
Chiefs -8.5 @-115 to win 3u
Chiefs - Texans over 41.5 @-110 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @-105 to win 2u
Lions -8 @-115 to win 3u
Lions score every quarter @115 to win 2.3u
Lions - Commanders over 55 @-115 to win 2u
Rams +6 @-115 to win 4u
Rams TT over 19.5 @145 to win 2,18u
Rams score every quarter @425 to win 2.13u
Eagles score every quarter @165 to win 1.65u
ML parlay Bills / Rams @600 to win 3u
Bills TT over 25.5 @-117 to win 3u
Bills - Ravens over 51.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bills +1.5 @-115 to win 2u
Parlay: Allen scores TD, Jackson scores TD, Bills TT over 19.5, Ravens TT over 19.5 @600 to win 3u
8-6-1 +7.86u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 18-19-1 +15.43u
Overall 145-158-3 +64,76u
Championship
Free bet (worth 0.4u) ML parlay: Commanders / Bills @500 to win 2u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-120 to win 3u
Bills ML @100 to win 1u
Super Bowl
Bills @260 to win 7.8u
Add:
Parlay Commanders TT over 16.5 / Bills TT over 19.5 @-110 to win 3u
Commanders +6 @-115 to win 2u
With the status of Hurts still uncertain (I assume he will play, but not being 100% healthy), I take the dog. The Commanders have proven that they can pile up points. Don't care about regular seasons games, as playoffs are a different kind of animal. Doubt the Commanders can't stop Barkley, so if the Eagles take an early lead, the Commanders will have to go into a shootout and I expect them to keep it close until the end.
Parlay Commanders TT over 16.5 / Bills TT over 19.5 @-110 to win 3u
Commanders +6 @-115 to win 2u
With the status of Hurts still uncertain (I assume he will play, but not being 100% healthy), I take the dog. The Commanders have proven that they can pile up points. Don't care about regular seasons games, as playoffs are a different kind of animal. Doubt the Commanders can't stop Barkley, so if the Eagles take an early lead, the Commanders will have to go into a shootout and I expect them to keep it close until the end.
Championships
Free bet (worth 0.4u) ML parlay: Commanders / Bills @500 to win 2u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-120 to win 3u
Bills ML @100 to win 1u
Parlay Commanders TT over 16.5 / Bills TT over 19.5 @-110 to win 3u
Commanders +6 @-115 to win 2u
Bills +2.5 @-119 to win 2u
TD Cook yes @120 to win 1.2u
Super Bowl
Bills @260 to win 7.8u
3-5 -1.48u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 21-24-1 +13.95u
Overall 148-163-3 +63,28u
Free bet (worth 0.4u) ML parlay: Commanders / Bills @500 to win 2u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-120 to win 3u
Bills ML @100 to win 1u
Parlay Commanders TT over 16.5 / Bills TT over 19.5 @-110 to win 3u
Commanders +6 @-115 to win 2u
Bills +2.5 @-119 to win 2u
TD Cook yes @120 to win 1.2u
Super Bowl
Bills @260 to win 7.8u
3-5 -1.48u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 21-24-1 +13.95u
Overall 148-163-3 +63,28u
SuperBowl
Over 48.5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @120 to win 2.88u
Try to keep it simple: Andy Reid (off a bye) > Sirianni, Pat Mahomes (in playoffs) > Hurts.
So probably will be on the Chiefs ML. Got a 50% odds bonus for max. 4u stake, so I could get +175 for a Chiefs win. Still thinking.
Will limit my bets for 13u, to get out with +50u and call it a season.
Over 48.5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @120 to win 2.88u
Try to keep it simple: Andy Reid (off a bye) > Sirianni, Pat Mahomes (in playoffs) > Hurts.
So probably will be on the Chiefs ML. Got a 50% odds bonus for max. 4u stake, so I could get +175 for a Chiefs win. Still thinking.
Will limit my bets for 13u, to get out with +50u and call it a season.
SuperBowl
Over 48.5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @120 to win 2.88u
Chiefs ML @175 (odds boost 50%) to win 7u
TD AJ Brown @155 to win 1.55u
TD Kareem Hunt @135 to win 1.35u
2+ TD Saqoun Barkley @265 to win 2.65u
2-4 -4.45u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 23-28-1 +9.5u
Overall 148-163-3 +58.83u
NFL 2024: 148-163-3 +58.83u
NFL 2023: 101-97-1 +29.51u
NFL 2022: 71-93-1 +13.13u
NFL 2021: 80-78 +73,70u
NFL 2020: 76-91-2 -11,38u
NFL 2019: 78-89-6 +2,75 units
NFL 2018: 102-113-1 +5,52 units
-------------------------------------
NFL overall: 656-724-14 +171,66 u
Thanks for sharing thoughts. Take a long break and hope to see you in September again.
Over 48.5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs TT over 26.5 @120 to win 2.88u
Chiefs ML @175 (odds boost 50%) to win 7u
TD AJ Brown @155 to win 1.55u
TD Kareem Hunt @135 to win 1.35u
2+ TD Saqoun Barkley @265 to win 2.65u
2-4 -4.45u
Regular season 127-139-2 +49,33u
Playoffs 23-28-1 +9.5u
Overall 148-163-3 +58.83u
NFL 2024: 148-163-3 +58.83u
NFL 2023: 101-97-1 +29.51u
NFL 2022: 71-93-1 +13.13u
NFL 2021: 80-78 +73,70u
NFL 2020: 76-91-2 -11,38u
NFL 2019: 78-89-6 +2,75 units
NFL 2018: 102-113-1 +5,52 units
-------------------------------------
NFL overall: 656-724-14 +171,66 u
Thanks for sharing thoughts. Take a long break and hope to see you in September again.
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