NFC Championship Game: Packers at Niners

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The late game next week at 6:40...in Santa Clara...

The line is 7-45 right now.

TT's:

26.5
19.5
 
I think at least most of you all know where I stand here. I need, and want a Niners win to go to the Superbowl. It is as simple as that.

As far as the game... several factors in SF's favor and just a few in favor of the Packers.

I'll ask those that watched... in this postseason that has had many a rematch... how much value should we put in the first game this year?
 
First game box score notables


First Downs: GB 19 SF 16

First Downs via Penalty: GB 6 SF 1

Yards: GB 198 SF 339

3rd Downs: GB 1-15 SF 3-9

Rushing was even, passing was not even close

GB 10 more minutes T.O.P.
 
There's no need to overthink this game. SF is the far superior team. They beat the Packers 37-8 in this stadium earlier and outgained them an incredible 7.5 to 2.8 yards per play. Where does Green Bay make that up? How has Green Bay gotten demonstrably better and San Francisco gotten demonstrably worse to close that gap?

Only case you can make for GB is Rodgers somehow pulls a miracle and Jimmy throws picks all over the place.

The Packers are a giant phony who is only in this game because they played another giant phony Seahawks team. They are going to get smashed again here. Ford, Buckner, Armstead, and Bosa is a front four that is playing at a level we really have not seen in years. Stick Sherman on Adams and how do the Packers score? GB's run defense was like butter against good run teams this year and I expect Sf to carve them up.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
There's no need to overthink this game. SF is the far superior team. They beat the Packers 37-8 in this stadium earlier and outgained them an incredible 7.5 to 2.8 yards per play. Where does Green Bay make that up? How has Green Bay gotten demonstrably better and San Francisco gotten demonstrably worse to close that gap?

Only case you can make for GB is Rodgers somehow pulls a miracle and Jimmy throws picks all over the place.

The Packers are a giant phony who is only in this game because they played another giant phony Seahawks team. They are going to get smashed again here. Ford, Buckner, Armstead, and Bosa is a front four that is playing at a level we really have not seen in years. Stick Sherman on Adams and how do the Packers score? GB's run defense was like butter against good run teams this year and I expect Sf to carve them up.
Click to expand...

Agree on a lot but Sherm does not shadow.
 
Green Bay has no sustainable path to putting long drives together in this game. The key point to me is that the same injured 9ers defense that struggled down the home stretch STILL destroyed the Packers earlier this year. This time, Staley is healthy to beef up the o-line, and they will have Ford / Kwon/Tart and fresh rested legs sleeping at home for a month + the extra day of rest. The only real potential for GB to hang here is winning turnovers by 2+, which you can’t really account for.

The Niners manhandled a better football team than the Packers on Saturday and are even more confident now.
 
I’m heavily invested in San Fran and have been looking for a reason not to jump on -7. I can’t find one. Maybe SF entire team gets the flu, maybe it’s a torrential downpour, maybe they have 5 turnovers...those are about the only ways I see GB having a chance to win this game. They are outmatched almost everywhere on the field. Niners are deeper. They will replenish at DL and RB with almost zero drop off. The only guy that scares me is Adams but he won’t be able to do it alone.
 
Wonder if this hits 7.5. Not that I lean GB at all, just wondering if it moves. NFW it goes to 6.5 though so I may as well hit it now. Books would get slammed with SF money if that happened.
 
Sunday for the books realistically going to come down whether or not one of the dogs win. Home team favorite moneyline parlays gonna be flooding in.
For that reason if you like SF I’d go now, that’s a line probably due to climb since it’s the later game and liability will continue to grow through the AFC title game.
 
raems said:
Sunday for the books realistically going to come down whether or not one of the dogs win. Home team favorite moneyline parlays gonna be flooding in.
For that reason if you like SF I’d go now, that’s a line probably due to climb since it’s the later game and liability will continue to grow through the AFC title game.
Click to expand...
Good point, chase game...
 
People saying Green Bay will be more prepared for the Niners this time around, quickly forgot that Green Bay had 2 weeks to prepare for the first matchup, as they were coming off a bye.
 
Rodgers getting 7 sounds appealing to joe schmoe.

But as others have stated here that was a rag tag 49ers team in the first match up. Now they have their (all time) doomsday dline back together... it's going to get ugly. Plus with the o-line playing like this I expect them to be able to just run over GB.

9ers have lost games they've dominated this season with mistakes - so it could happen if the GB steps up and decides to make this a grueling low score affair...

The 49ers defense is so effective because the 4 man pass rush has the effect of an all our blitz.. but they are so quick to recover against screens that it really leaves the opposing team's offense with little to no options. Vikings called a ton of quick and short stuff only to be snuffed out and tackled immediately.

Mahomes with his legs has the ability to beat this defense like Wilson and Murray did at times... not this guy. But we'll see...

I've got a couple 20-1 tickets on the NFC that I placed pre-season and I'm also tempted to get more at -7.
 
The line feels a couple points high but I think Green Bay stinks...their offense does nothing for me this year. Especially going up against the 2000 Ravens D ;) .....I won't be touching them.
 
TheHbomb said:
I’m heavily invested in San Fran and have been looking for a reason not to jump on -7. I can’t find one. Maybe SF entire team gets the flu, maybe it’s a torrential downpour, maybe they have 5 turnovers...those are about the only ways I see GB having a chance to win this game. They are outmatched almost everywhere on the field. Niners are deeper. They will replenish at DL and RB with almost zero drop off. The only guy that scares me is Adams but he won’t be able to do it alone.
Click to expand...
As Of Now, Sunday Looks Like A Nice Day In Santa Clara
Mostly Sunny62°43°10%N 9 mph76%
 
aplous said:
The line feels a couple points high but I think Green Bay stinks...their offense does nothing for me this year. Especially going up against the 2000 Ravens D ;) .....I won't be touching them.
Click to expand...

It may have been a bold statement but when the announcers started bringing up the 9ers trying to beat/tie the first down record set by that same defense I was going nuts!
 
Bovada & Draft Kings went to 7.5. They will just be getting more teaser money now.
 
B.A.R. said:
I think at least most of you all know where I stand here. I need, and want a Niners win to go to the Superbowl. It is as simple as that.

As far as the game... several factors in SF's favor and just a few in favor of the Packers.

I'll ask those that watched... in this postseason that has had many a rematch... how much value should we put in the first game this year?
Click to expand...

I generally don’t put a lot of stock in it but the way niners demolished them that game is pretty hard to ignore! I just don’t see what has changed all that much? I don’t recall how healthy niners were at that point but I’m assuming if anything they healthier now!!

That game aside I just don’t see many avenues for packers to even cover here. What can they do? Niners d front is too much for packers Oline so they will be able to dedicate as many guys they need to bracketing Adams, then what? Packers don’t have many good secondary options to catch the ball! Niners offense can do pretty much anything so you would expect they come out the opposite of Vikings game and exploit packers suspect rush d.,
 
It’s harder for me to envision the Pack going in there and withstanding the blows and winning than it was for me to envision the Titans doing it against the Ravens. Not impossible by any stretch but they don’t seem built for this type of game. And they got the best possible matchup with the Sea/Phil winner after Minnesota bounced the Saints.
 
Capaholic said:
It’s harder for me to envision the Pack going in there and withstanding the blows and winning than it was for me to envision the Titans doing it against the Ravens. Not impossible by any stretch but they don’t seem built for this type of game. And they got the best possible matchup with the Sea/Phil winner after Minnesota bounced the Saints.
Click to expand...

As wrong I was bout titans I did say I thought they presented prob the toughest matchup to ravens. I just don’t see that here in any way., nothing the pack do on either side the ball really matches up vs niners does it?

Offensively niners so versatile and able to attack whatever your weakness may be, they came out and threw all over Vikings early, they ended up with bunch of rushing yards too but those 1st couple drives it was clear shanny saw something they could attack thru the air and jimmy g made a few great throws!! you would think they come out in this one and do the complete opposite, run to set up the pass vs pack shaky run d. I love Shanny cause you can actually trust his game plan to exploit his opponent, sadly that rarely the case either cause they have to play to their strengths or coach just sucks!!

On the other side how do pack beat them if they take Adams away as you would expect? We have already seen how pack Oline can’t handle this niners front 4! I like jones a lot but they held cook to 18 yards! Let’s play devils advocate and assume lafluer comes up with a good script and does have some success early on. Even if that does happen pack once again proved they are not great when it comes to second half adjustments and niners excellent at just that.
 
2daBank said:
I generally don’t put a lot of stock in it but the way niners demolished them that game is pretty hard to ignore! I just don’t see what has changed all that much? I don’t recall how healthy niners were at that point but I’m assuming if anything they healthier now!!

That game aside I just don’t see many avenues for packers to even cover here. What can they do? Niners d front is too much for packers Oline so they will be able to dedicate as many guys they need to bracketing Adams, then what? Packers don’t have many good secondary options to catch the ball! Niners offense can do pretty much anything so you would expect they come out the opposite of Vikings game and exploit packers suspect rush d.,
Click to expand...
In the first matchup, the Packers were as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye. Only Tonyan, Vitale, and Madison were listed on the injury report.
Conversely, Kittle, Samuel, and Sanders all were questionable and ended up playing their first games back from missing time. Remember Sanders didn’t play much at all with the bruised ribs...

Staley, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, Breida, and Robbie Gould all missed the first matchup. The Packers were by far the healthier team, coming off a bye, and they got destroyed.
 
TheHbomb said:
In the first matchup, the Packers were as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye. Only Tonyan, Vitale, and Madison were listed on the injury report.
Conversely, Kittle, Samuel, and Sanders all were questionable and ended up playing their first games back from missing time. Remember Sanders didn’t play much at all with the bruised ribs...

Staley, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, Breida, and Robbie Gould all missed the first matchup. The Packers were by far the healthier team, coming off a bye, and they got destroyed.
Click to expand...

Yea I was referring to niners health. Other than Adams being hurt for handful of games I don’t recall packers dealing with many injuries like niners did majority of season. I just couldn’t recall which niners players were out that previous game. Figured they were healthier now for sure. Thanks
 
JohnnyGambler said:
There's no need to overthink this game. SF is the far superior team. They beat the Packers 37-8 in this stadium earlier and outgained them an incredible 7.5 to 2.8 yards per play. Where does Green Bay make that up? How has Green Bay gotten demonstrably better and San Francisco gotten demonstrably worse to close that gap?

Only case you can make for GB is Rodgers somehow pulls a miracle and Jimmy throws picks all over the place.

The Packers are a giant phony who is only in this game because they played another giant phony Seahawks team. They are going to get smashed again here. Ford, Buckner, Armstead, and Bosa is a front four that is playing at a level we really have not seen in years. Stick Sherman on Adams and how do the Packers score? GB's run defense was like butter against good run teams this year and I expect Sf to carve them up.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything said here. It's a game not to overthink. Only way this isnt a romp is if Jimmy G turns it over and Rodgers plays the game legends are made of. I just dont think there's enough talent on GB.
 
Niners.....Niners on the Alt line.....Niners on the Alt line again.....and then the Niners
 
Guys on VSIN brought up the 2011 divisional playoff game, NYJ at NE. Pats rolled them by the tune of around 50-10 in their last outing. Nobody gave the Jets a chance. 28-21 Jets.

GB played their worst game of the year at SF while SF played their best game of the year.

Just playing devil's advocate here. The first play that jumped out to me was a 7 pt tease or ML parlay on both faves this weekend. But it's never that easy & there's always at least one "oh fuck" game every weekend.
 
Zeke said:
Guys on VSIN brought up the 2011 divisional playoff game, NYJ at NE. Pats rolled them by the tune of around 50-10 in their last outing. Nobody gave the Jets a chance. 28-21 Jets.

GB played their worst game of the year at SF while SF played their best game of the year.

Just playing devil's advocate here. The first play that jumped out to me was a 7 pt tease or ML parlay on both faves this weekend. But it's never that easy & there's always at least one "oh fuck" game every weekend.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call that SFs best game of the year, one of the top few for sure though.
 
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My big interest in this game is how well SF can sustain drives. In that first meeting, they had one actual "drive" (with more than 2-4 plays) that resulted in a TD.
 
TheHbomb said:
Beat me to it. New Orleans was their best game of the season IMO. The loss to Baltimore in the rain is overlooked, too. All in sequence...
Click to expand...
Agreed. I understand that some will counter the high score of the game in NOLA but that game was a mixture of two things: injuries on defense and it was just one of those days when the offenses were clicking. You play that game 10 more times you might see that total over 75 pts once.
 
B.A.R. said:
I wouldn't call that SFs best game of the year, one of the top few for sure though.
Click to expand...

Be that as it may, point being it took one team playing well above their season average & one team playing well below their season average to yield that result. The Vikes could not have possibly been in a worse situational spot than last week but they managed to hang around, for a bit, in the first half.

I hope I'm wrong because I laid the 7 when it first came out. But after further review my big teaser is with GB & the points versus SF staying within 6.

As BAR stated, not much love for GB out there but the sports books are never hurting.
 
Zeke said:
The Vikes could not have possibly been in a worse situational spot than last week but they managed to hang around, for a bit, in the first half.
Click to expand...

I will counter with the Hawks being in a bad situational spot and an even worse injury/IR list/suspension spot and they could have (and some say should have) beaten the rested and healthy Packers on their own field........of course, we could argue for the next three days about how we see this playing out and it will end up with a result nobody considered!
 
GWarner27 said:
Surprised they haven’t called off the game considering how nobody in here thinks GB has a right to even share the field with this team
Click to expand...
What would we do Sunday Night between the Chiefs/Titans game and the season premiere of Curb your enthusiasm? Spend time with my wife and kids? Let’s just play the game.
 
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