There are important lessons to be learned in here. I will post a few thoughts and hopefully ck is ok with it.
1. You are not going to get ck's lines. He is getting carpal tunnel syndrome from hitting the refresh button at specific times of specific days of the week to attack the lines immediately. He and other sharp people are moving those lines instantaneously, with the major mistakes being hit by more people than the less major mistakes. Since the line moves BECAUSE he bet it, and you won't know what he has bet until AFTER he has bet it. It is just not possible. The key if you are tailing him is to bet it immediately after he posts. You won't get his line but you will generally still beat the close. As bettors our ultimate goal is to win but the best indicator for future success is not the results but whether you are beating the closing line. I have little doubt tailing Ck the last few years by betting right after he posts would be profitable. I am not generally a tailer, rather an originator, but you can get some interesting insight about the likelihood of which way lines might be moving going forward just looking at ck's plays, as they are a pretty good indicator to me on whether I would be better off waiting to bet what I like or waiting because the line will most likely move towards his number (particularly given the circles he runs in). I get tons of value from his threads without even tailing him (not that i have never tailed him on a play because i have).
2. Being a great handicapper is great but it doesn't make you money. Being a great bettor > being a great handicapper and it isn't close. In the case of CK, he is both. But the lessons he is teaching are huge for people. If you didn't look at his bets and just focused on his processes, you would be bettering yourself as a sports investor.
3. Don't be scared to be open-minded and learn something. I used to sit and hit refresh and pound openers too and you get access to so many soft lines that way that it was just a huge value. It was best for me when it was BM without pre-released low limit lines. I can handicap football. I am an experienced gambler. I am aware of my personal bad practices as they related to my more thorough methods of the past. BUT I learned some things from ck the last few years. His ability to watch a game on a given night and then immediately use that information to hit game of the year lines was eye opening and something that I simply never really considered in the same way he does it. It's brilliant. Whether it is potential injury, a discovered flaw in the team that doesn't match up well in the future, a score that will effect future lines which will ensure him value or give him potential middle opportunities, etc. etc. .... My point is that I have a huge ego, am confident I understand a lot of what it takes to actually win (even if my current occupation doesn't afford me the opportunity to do it anymore) but I am still willing to learn from people who are doing it smarter than I was able to ever think of myself. Be open minded and think critically about what he is doing. You can be jealous of someone (I am jealous of ck), and still really like someone and be happy for them (consider ck a friend of a sort and am definitely happy for him) and still be willing to learn from someone who is doing it better than you are (he is doing it as good as anyone who is posting on the internet).
4. From reading his threads, when people ask him if something is still a play, he answers. There is the threat of losing the number waiting 17 hours for him to reply but he will answer. I made a post in my thread after I posted my bets this week which I will use as an example to illustrate a point....
I would be shocked if Michigan was less than a full 7 by kickoff. (6.5 was still available at the time i posted this)
I would be VERY shocked if App St was 24 or more by kickoff. (looks like it will close over 24 after all 24.5 available when i posted this and it is actually 25.5 now)
The Terps line is ridiculously high as well. (dropped all the way to 9)
NcState has a good chance to win outright and they are giving us 17 pts? That will close lower eventually. (I still think it drops lower eventually)
And if Missouri closes anything under 10 it will be silly too low. (7's available at time of posting i believe, now a sea of 10's)
looks like MOH got crushed but I Can see that creeping either direction from there. (went down another .5-1pt)
And I HIGHLY doubt that Tulane goes off over a TD fave. ( over a TD available at time of posting, already dropped to 7 with a few shops at a juiced 6.5)
Who knows on Nebraska line ... I just had the game targeted. I maybe should have waited there. (Note I was unclear which way it would move and they bet Minnesota, meaning I had a decent idea this one wouldn't move the way the others did but I am in the business of trusting myself)
Just saying you might want to attack right now while those kind of numbers are available because, like I said, I doubt they last too long.
You can ask CK where he thinks lines will move, you can ask him if he will still play it .... but I suspect when he posts a play, that a majority still have one way line movement traffic. In this thread we also discussed with Toledo at -2.5/-3 whether Buffalo would end up going off the favorite. Currently Buffalo is -1.
My point in this regard is that his thread is most valuable for his processes and selections ..... but if you mine his threads by asking him questions and getting other people to engage as well, you can get a lot more out of it than just his processes and selections. You can find indicators towards finding yourself value and deciding when to bet something among other things. Tailers have it easy. Doubt many realize the work that he is putting in on this stuff. The least the tailers can do is be active enough to ask questions, provide a little insight if they have any ....
guess my point is that if you want to be a handicapper or originator or a great bettor ... his thread is a good model for seeing how to do it ..... but if you are just going to tail him, note what time he generally posts his sides each week and what time he generally posts his totals each week and get in there and bet them as quickly as possible. Not sure if he posts on twitter before here but probably want to follow him on there too. The key for the tailer will be to bet as soon as you can.
Sorry for hijack but I love gaming theory, Franchise and I need you to post your plays. Thanks for doing so.
