NCAAF Week 8

CrimsonK said:
I think it’s safe to say you and I view handicapping football very differently and thus, this is likely to remain an unfruitful convo. Thank you for attempting to make a case for the favorite.
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Always a pleasure hearing your views on games. On this note, thanks for helping me to see the light on Hoos and under last week.
 
EazyDuzIt said:
Who do you like in tonight’s games, Crimson?
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I took the over 53 in the Ark St game but I pushed a small edge. If I just wanted action I prob still take o55.5 but nothing major. Ark St offense is gonna come alive against one of these scrubs soon, hoping it's tonight. Other game was really hard to handicap. I almost took under 60 when the total got steamed this afternoon but ultimately decided to pass. I made it a PICK/56 so I am fine with where it's currently at. I still don't feel that I have a good read on ASU, my pre season read was terrible but they are still giving me trouble. Will just watch and learn.
 
Ryno14 said:
CK, I’d really like your Bama/UT thoughts when you get time. A lot of my fellow Vols have let the Auburn win get to them, but I’m leaning Bama and under.
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These were some quick twitter thoughts:

Alabama @ Tennessee (+29/57) I took Under 61 speculatively at open. If Tua is out and/or limited, that total was ten points too high. If Tua is full-go and finally plays 4Q, I'm a coin flip. I do think the familiarity between Jeremy Pruitt and Jalen Hurts is big advantage to UT. I liken it to Grantham getting to scheme against Nick Fitzgerald a few weeks back and it was ugly. This shouldn't be a game that features a ton of snaps, both keep very deliberate paces. Bama just responded w great perofrmance on def last week holding Mizzou to 212 yards and 10 points. I need not detail how superior Mizzou's offense is compared to the Vols. There isn't anything the Vols do particularly well on offense. Bama hasn't allowed more than 14 to UT in the past three seasons and I don't expect that to change here. Vols average offensively both in running and passing and I just don't see many individual matchups they rate to consistently win. Their hope in this not being another blowout (94-17 L2Y) rests in this being the Jalen Hurts show. Bama 38-13 makes this twelve straight for the Tide.
 
CrimsonK said:
These were some quick twitter thoughts:

Alabama @ Tennessee (+29/57) I took Under 61 speculatively at open. If Tua is out and/or limited, that total was ten points too high. If Tua is full-go and finally plays 4Q, I'm a coin flip. I do think the familiarity between Jeremy Pruitt and Jalen Hurts is big advantage to UT. I liken it to Grantham getting to scheme against Nick Fitzgerald a few weeks back and it was ugly. This shouldn't be a game that features a ton of snaps, both keep very deliberate paces. Bama just responded w great perofrmance on def last week holding Mizzou to 212 yards and 10 points. I need not detail how superior Mizzou's offense is compared to the Vols. There isn't anything the Vols do particularly well on offense. Bama hasn't allowed more than 14 to UT in the past three seasons and I don't expect that to change here. Vols average offensively both in running and passing and I just don't see many individual matchups they rate to consistently win. Their hope in this not being another blowout (94-17 L2Y) rests in this being the Jalen Hurts show. Bama 38-13 makes this twelve straight for the Tide.
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I follow you on Twitter and didn’t even realize that was you! Thanks, CK.
 
CrimsonK said:
I took the over 53 in the Ark St game but I pushed a small edge. If I just wanted action I prob still take o55.5 but nothing major. Ark St offense is gonna come alive against one of these scrubs soon, hoping it's tonight. Other game was really hard to handicap. I almost took under 60 when the total got steamed this afternoon but ultimately decided to pass. I made it a PICK/56 so I am fine with where it's currently at. I still don't feel that I have a good read on ASU, my pre season read was terrible but they are still giving me trouble. Will just watch and learn.
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Thanks man. I was already leaning under and ASU. Will probably just take the under. Love might be out, though.
 
crimsonK. Thank u for your post. I look forward each week to read. I’m new to capping the game. I was wondering if you have any thoughts on Friday night games? CSU at BSU and af at UNLV.
 
crimson k I was thinking of starting to cap some games but was wondering if you had the time to explain how it works ( basically) and how to start. I ask u because u seem to be the best
 
mater said:
crimsonK. Thank u for your post. I look forward each week to read. I’m new to capping the game. I was wondering if you have any thoughts on Friday night games? CSU at BSU and af at UNLV.
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Thanks, I haven't bet anything. If I had to do something on each game it would be Col St/BSU under 63 and Air Force -9.5 but I don't like either enough to take it. Perhaps I will take Under 63 because my numbers support it.
 
I'm new to the site and just wanted to say thank you for hard work and willingness to share.

I was wondering if you could share your numbers and thoughts on UK? My raw numbers have them at -16. I see the potential weather issue being an advantage for UK. They should have no problem running the ball against Vandy's weak run defense. On the other side of the ball, I can't see Vandy having much success through the air or on the ground. A score of 30-14 feels about right to me. Your thoughts?
 
Weather a concern in Madison, although wind may not be as large of a concern with these two offenses, taking away any threat of a pass and the increased ground game have me spooked. 57 close to my initial number anyway without a weather adjustment. Decent shot to scoop it.

Illinois/Wisconsin Under 57 -108 (1 unit)
 
louie0122 said:
I'm new to the site and just wanted to say thank you for hard work and willingness to share.

I was wondering if you could share your numbers and thoughts on UK? My raw numbers have them at -16. I see the potential weather issue being an advantage for UK. They should have no problem running the ball against Vandy's weak run defense. On the other side of the ball, I can't see Vandy having much success through the air or on the ground. A score of 30-14 feels about right to me. Your thoughts?
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If you read through the thread, he bet this Over then got out with an Under bet after the weather reports.
 
louie0122 said:
I'm new to the site and just wanted to say thank you for hard work and willingness to share.

I was wondering if you could share your numbers and thoughts on UK? My raw numbers have them at -16. I see the potential weather issue being an advantage for UK. They should have no problem running the ball against Vandy's weak run defense. On the other side of the ball, I can't see Vandy having much success through the air or on the ground. A score of 30-14 feels about right to me. Your thoughts?
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Welcome to the site! I agree with your sentiments, weather looks to be nice edge for UK. I think -16/44 are solid numbers with some wind/rain.
 
ck,

any clue what the impetus for the downward move in unlv game is? I don't think there is a huge difference between the two qb's so not sure what it could be or whether it is just an organic market move.
 
RetroVK said:
ck,

any clue what the impetus for the downward move in unlv game is? I don't think there is a huge difference between the two qb's so not sure what it could be or whether it is just an organic market move.
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I would disagree with the difference between Hammond and Saunders. I think it's very significant, in favor of Hammond. Also could be partly organic belief that in MG third game now at QB he settles in and this is a tasty secondary to throw at, they don't make em much worse.
 
TedBundy said:
I thought that was starting out to be a very fruitful convo...
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I'm glad that it was helpful to read. I don't care to go back down that road again but I realized that he and I didn't share a common language when trying to make our points. For example, when I say adjusted or opponent adjusted, it takes into account each team that they have played. So when I say they are the 10th best opponent adjusted rush defense in CFB, a rebuttal of saying they haven't played good competition really has little merit because the opposition is factored in. 24 hours goes faster for me than it has at any other time in my life so I need to decide how much time I want to spend just talking in circles or explaining things - there's an opportunity cost I gotta weigh.
 
CrimsonK said:
I would disagree with the difference between Hammond and Saunders. I think it's very significant, in favor of Hammond. Also could be partly organic belief that in MG third game now at QB he settles in and this is a tasty secondary to throw at, they don't make em much worse.
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He had a better second half last week but at that point the game had long been decided.
 
I get adjusted for opponent but how well adjusted like does it account for week-specific contingencies like injuries and sos (vs rush D and overall) of opposing team?

I mean, they faced two power 5 teams and one had a battered o-line, another missed its star running back. I think I made a reasonable point, but I understand that you don‘t have the time to hear an opposing case. Happy to just stick to reading your awesome insights.
 
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VirginiaCavs said:
I get adjusted for opponent but how well adjusted like does it account for week-specific contingencies like injuries and sos (vs rush D and overall) of opposing team?

I mean, they faced two power 5 teams and one had a battered o-line, another missed its star running back. I think I made a reasonable point, but I understand that you don‘t have the time to hear an opposing case. Happy to just stick to reading your awesome insights.
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Maybe start a handicapping thread and gather insight?
 
RetroVK said:
He had a better second half last week but at that point the game had long been decided.
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Neither guy are very impressive from a statistical standpoint, part of my assertion is just based on watching them and feeling like Hammond was the far superior athlete. I may have gotten a bit jaded as well from seeing the way he led them against Navy. If the gap in QB is less than what I think it is, I will kick myself for not laying the 9.5 after the move. UNLV gave up 34 and 35 last year to the option and I haven't seen anything this season that leads me to believe they have all of a sudden figured it out, their rush defense is abysmal
 
Lot to add here:

GOY (Game played in future market, not a declaration of intent)

Kentucky +8.5 v. UGA -110 (1.5 units)

Props:

Jalen Reagor Over 5.5 receptions -110 (1 unit)
Brian Lewerke Over 16.5 completions -110 (1 unit)
Brian Lewerke Over 192.5 rush + pass yards -110 (1 unit)
Felton Davis Over 56.5 reciving yards -110 (1 unit)
Felton Davis Over 5 receptions +250 (1 unit)
 
B.A.R. said:
Over 5 at that price... good find.
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No idea why they would not just go flat 6 but I'll take it. He's been targeted 31 times in the past two weeks which I havent fact checked but would bet a large sum of money that it's among top 5 most in CFB in that stretch. For perspective, only 220 players have been targeted 31+ times total through 7 weeks. Lewerke had to throw 52 times last week against a Penn State rush defense that I believe is very average, now they see a top 5 rush d, he's gonna have to throw it 50 times again and Davis is the only non scrub out there right now for them. Really like this batch of props, rare to get the books on mistakes like this so late in year.
 
CrimsonK said:
No idea why they would not just go flat 6 but I'll take it. He's been targeted 31 times in the past two weeks which I havent fact checked but would bet a large sum of money that it's among top 5 most in CFB in that stretch. For perspective, only 220 players have been targeted 31+ times total through 7 weeks. Lewerke had to throw 52 times last week against a Penn State rush defense that I believe is very average, now they see a top 5 rush d, he's gonna have to throw it 50 times again and Davis is the only non scrub out there right now for them. Really like this batch of props, rare to get the books on mistakes like this so late in year.
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It makes sense.

As I said just earlier and earlier in the week... he is going against one of the best corners in the country but he will get the opportunities. No players scares me more tomorrow to be honest. They might get some of the other guys healthy but he will get the looks, no doubt.
 
CrimsonK said:
Lot to add here:

GOY (Game played in future market, not a declaration of intent)

Kentucky +8.5 v. UGA -110 (1.5 units)

Props:

Jalen Reagor Over 5.5 receptions -110 (1 unit)
Brian Lewerke Over 16.5 completions -110 (1 unit)
Brian Lewerke Over 192.5 rush + pass yards -110 (1 unit)
Felton Davis Over 56.5 reciving yards -110 (1 unit)
Felton Davis Over 5 receptions +250 (1 unit)
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Im sure you have seen but weather is going to be nasty. Similar or worse than last yr when he went 11/22 for 96 yards

Calling for rain and 20-30 mph winds with temps in the 40's
 
Yep
Dave said:
Im sure you have seen but weather is going to be nasty. Similar or worse than last yr when he went 11/22 for 96 yards

Calling for rain and 20-30 mph winds with temps in the 40's
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Yep, from what I've seen wind shouldn't be that high but if it's up near 30 then I could see it being a real issue. I think the biggest thing between last year and this year is last year they were an average rush offense so they had that option. This year they are amongst the worst P5 rush offenses in CFB so i think it just means whetehr or not it's bad weather, they are gonna have to throw it around. Just can't see how they can run it.
 
CrimsonK said:
Yep


Yep, from what I've seen wind shouldn't be that high but if it's up near 30 then I could see it being a real issue. I think the biggest thing between last year and this year is last year they were an average rush offense so they had that option. This year they are amongst the worst P5 rush offenses in CFB so i think it just means whetehr or not it's bad weather, they are gonna have to throw it around. Just can't see how they can run it.
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I am thinking along the lines of their typical jet sweeps and a couple of more designed runs from Lewerke. Other game that was similar weather that comes into my head was the OSU win 3 years ago, they of course had a backup QB in for that game. but it was a similar approach of of runs and Qb runs in the mix. Not having a punter tho may have to make them a little more aggressive.
 
I know i say this practically every week but just can’t say it enough. This thread is absolutely amazing and truly appreciate you taking the time to share not only your plays but even more so your incredible knowledge of this sport!!

Didn’t think it was possible but somehow thread even better this week!!!

Keep killing in sir!!
 
Cin o 46, UCF o65, fau u61, army o47, EMU -3, Buffalo -1, Hou -11.5, UTEP +23, WMU -4, Cal o58, Nc St +17.5, Aub u63, Utah o 48, Hawaii o67.5



Keep in mind, you are betting my weakest positions against current market so please temper your expectations. Again, I’m not the guy to follow if you are betting on Saturdays unless you are just doing this for entertainment value.
 
CrimsonK said:
Cin o 46, UCF o65, fau u61, army o47, EMU -3, Buffalo -1, Hou -11.5, UTEP +23, WMU -4, Cal o58, Nc St +17.5, Aub u63, Utah o 48, Hawaii o67.5



Keep in mind, you are betting my weakest positions against current market so please temper your expectations. Again, I’m not the guy to follow if you are betting on Saturdays unless you are just doing this for entertainment value.
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Good ask.......keep on rollin....trying not to flatter
 
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