NCAAF Week 5

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Overall: 111-65 (+54.20 units)

GOY:

Colorado -6 v. UCLA -110 (1.5 units)
Stanford +8 at Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)
 
Virginia +10 @ N.C. State -110 (1 unit)
Nevada +10 @ Air Force -110 (2 units)
WMU +3 @ MOH -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss +31 @ Auburn -110 (2.5 units)
Coastal Carolina +18 @ Troy -110 (1 unit)
Florida Atlantic -3 @ MTSU -110 (1.5 units)
Notre Dame -2.5 v Stanford -110 (2 units)
 
ND I would definitely be more inclined to play at current. I don’t think the line has properly reflected just how good they can be with Book at QB. Colorado, I prob pass at current. There may be another way to bet the game than taking them ATS. Will prob know more about that potential in 24 hours. Bit concerned with how they handled the Frost/Kelly offense couple weeks ago.
 
I tried on Virginia 10, Nevada 10 and ND 2.5 and got shut out and each one. Don't know how you do it.
 
UCLA/Colorado Under 62.5 -110 (1 unit)
Cuse/Clemson Over 61 -110 (1.5 units)
USA/App State Over 59.5 -110 (2 units)
Virginia/NC State Over 50.5 -110 (1 unit)
Utah/Washington State Over 50 -110 (1 unit)
WVU/Texas Tech Over 75.5 -110 (1.5 units)
ULM/Georgia State Over 58 -110 (2 units)
UMass/Ohio Under 73.5 -110 (2 units)
Kent State/Ball State Over 55 -110 (2.5 units)
Oregon State/Arizona State Under 64.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rice/Wake Under 69.5 -110 (1 unit)
Pitt/UCF Over 60 -110 (2.5 units)
Purdue/Nebraska Over 55.5 -110 (1 unit)
CC/Troy Under 63 -110 (2.5 units)
Nevada/Air Force Over 66 -110 (2 units)
Michigan/Northwestern Under 53 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii/SJSU Over 63.5 -110 (1.5 units)
Ohio State/Penn State Under 72.5 -110 (1 unit)
Stanford/Notre Dame Over 49 -110 (2.5 units)
Ole Miss/LSU Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
Toledo/Fresno State Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
 
Good to see you on the App v USA and the Nevada v AFA overs as they were on my sheet and I jumped on those as soon as they came out at BM. Got them at 59 and 66 respectively. Continued success to ya this week!
 
lvmike32 said:
I tried on Virginia 10, Nevada 10 and ND 2.5 and got shut out and each one. Don't know how you do it.
Click to expand...
When i used to do openers i often started in the middle bet numbers after going straight to targeted games so i didnt have to compete with the top-down or bottom-up guys who were faster
 
RetroVK said:
When i used to do openers i often started in the middle bet numbers after going straight to targeted games so i didnt have to compete with the top-down or bottom-up guys who were faster
Click to expand...
They actually drip them now more than they used to. Rare that we get the whole card at once. Your former strategy was what I used to do as well and that actually made things much easier. This is smarter by the books and makes the competition for each piece of meat even tougher. This week I was lightning quick on BOL, I only met reistance on two plays as I was submitting, which is a very good week. BM, on the other hand, was giving me all sorts of issues today. Thankfully, was able to get most of my meal from BOL this week.
 
GWarner27 said:
i realize KState sucks, but UT seems incredibly overvalued and in a massive sandwich spot
Click to expand...
Not great situational spot at all, but hard to see how K State moves the ball on them, especially if they stick with Skylar T. He would get his lunch money took by the blitzes.
 
CrimsonK said:
They actually drip them now more than they used to. Rare that we get the whole card at once. Your former strategy was what I used to do as well and that actually made things much easier. This is smarter by the books and makes the competition for each piece of meat even tougher. This week I was lightning quick on BOL, I only met reistance on two plays as I was submitting, which is a very good week. BM, on the other hand, was giving me all sorts of issues today. Thankfully, was able to get most of my meal from BOL this week.
Click to expand...
I got triple fucked on TT over today, very frustrating....
 
CrimsonK said:
They actually drip them now more than they used to. Rare that we get the whole card at once. Your former strategy was what I used to do as well and that actually made things much easier. This is smarter by the books and makes the competition for each piece of meat even tougher. This week I was lightning quick on BOL, I only met reistance on two plays as I was submitting, which is a very good week. BM, on the other hand, was giving me all sorts of issues today. Thankfully, was able to get most of my meal from BOL this week.
Click to expand...
My dial up cannot compete...
 
RetroVK said:
When i used to do openers i often started in the middle bet numbers after going straight to targeted games so i didnt have to compete with the top-down or bottom-up guys who were faster
Click to expand...

Thanks VK. Sorry but I don't understand your comment. Seems pretty random to me now on which rotation numbers they release and even where they release them on the screen (i.e. new releases aren't always released at the bottom). Not sure what you mean by middle bet and top-down, bottom-up though. But appreciate any help. I don't cap but on the other site there is a very sharp guy who Sat night puts out what he thinks the lines should be and what he'd bet based on that - I use that as a guideline. Not surprisingly he's on a lot of the same stuff CK here is. I get a lot of good numbers but nothing like what CK gets. Anyway, thanks.
 
lvmike32 said:
Thanks VK. Sorry but I don't understand your comment. Seems pretty random to me now on which rotation numbers they release and even where they release them on the screen (i.e. new releases aren't always released at the bottom). Not sure what you mean by middle bet and top-down, bottom-up though. But appreciate any help. I don't cap but on the other site there is a very sharp guy who Sat night puts out what he thinks the lines should be and what he'd bet based on that - I use that as a guideline. Not surprisingly he's on a lot of the same stuff CK here is. I get a lot of good numbers but nothing like what CK gets. Anyway, thanks.
Click to expand...

I guess now they release in pieces at a time. A few years ago, the entire card came at once. I was mostly referring to CBB cards too, as there wasnt a ton of competition on cfb cards. But when they release an entire card at once, you had to find unique ways to compete with the speed of other sharp bettors. It has changed to a few games at a time (last couple years i think?) so everyone is competing over a few sets of numbers so the strategy i listed above is no longer applicable, really.
 
RetroVK said:
I guess now they release in pieces at a time. A few years ago, the entire card came at once. I was mostly referring to CBB cards too, as there wasnt a ton of competition on cfb cards. But when they release an entire card at once, you had to find unique ways to compete with the speed of other sharp bettors. It has changed to a few games at a time (last couple years i think?) so everyone is competing over a few sets of numbers so the strategy i listed above is no longer applicable, really.
Click to expand...
thanks for trying. Appreciate it. CBB was crazy back when RAS and few other sharpies were getting up yp 10 point line value on totals.
 
CrimsonK said:
68 is my total as well
Click to expand...
I broke this down pretty heavy after the line drop and feel pretty confident in it.

Obviously, it makes me more confident when the GOAT of CFB capping is stepping out on it.


-----------------------------

On another note, very jealous of that Ball/Kent number. It has gotten out of control now.
 
B.A.R. said:
I broke this down pretty heavy after the line drop and feel pretty confident in it.

Obviously, it makes me more confident when the GOAT of CFB capping is stepping out on it.


-----------------------------

On another note, very jealous of that Ball/Kent number. It has gotten out of control now.
Click to expand...
Made that one 63/64 so tend to agree
 
Don't love either of these but played them and decided to share:

Thurs

Antonio Ratliff-Williams Over 4 rec +160 (1 unit)
Antonio Williams Over 54.5 rush yards +100 (1 unit)
 
GOY (This means future games, not a declaration of confidence):

Week 7:

UCF -1 @ Memphis -110 (2 units)

Week 8:

Missouri -4 v. Memphis -110 (2 units)

Week 10:

Texas A&M +11.5 @ Auburn -110 (1 unit)

Week 13:

Houston +7.5 @ Memphis -110 (1 unit)
Texas A&M -1 v. LSU -110 (1 unit)
 
UCF -1 lol Might have some value there

Missouri -4 lol Might have some value there

Tamu 11.5 lol Might have some value

Houston 7.5 lol Might have some value

The problem with Memphis is they have a QB that can neither run or throw. So Fritz figured out you can load up and stop Henderson, leave the QB to run (he cannot) and leave the QB to pass (he cannot) and because you have so many guys at the line of scrimmage, when the QB is passing he is often under pressure and he is not a quick thinker. If you don't take Henderson away, they will tear you up but if you can .... they just don't have an answer at QB.

Those are all HUGE value.
 
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