NCAAF Week 4

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Overall: 85-58 (+27.92 units)

Games played in future markets:

Tulane +1.5/2.5 v. Houston -110 (2 units)
Michigan State -3 @ Northwestern (1 unit)
Texas -4 v. Oklahoma State -110 (1 unit)
 
Wanted to give quick comment on a bad week three. Many of the bets I made were made last sunday through a proxy at circa. That's the first time I've ever tried to be ready to bet sides and totals by Sunday at 1 PM EST. While negative variance likely had more to do with the poor week than anything, considering the CLV, it was still a poorly handicapped week by me, so even my marginal bets resulted in losers, while almost 100% of my marginal bets resulted in winners the week prior. Sometimes the margins between 29-10 and 22-28 are much slimmer than I realize. Anyway, I've decided not to try to be ready for circa open this week, will just get back to being ready for a few sides today and the traditional totals releases tomorrow. Would also anticipate that the volume of bets levels off considerably this week, and moving forward.
 
CrimsonK said:
Wanted to give quick comment on a bad week three. Many of the bets I made were made last sunday through a proxy at circa. That's the first time I've ever tried to be ready to bet sides and totals by Sunday at 1 PM EST. While negative variance likely had more to do with the poor week than anything, considering the CLV, it was still a poorly handicapped week by me, so even my marginal bets resulted in losers, while almost 100% of my marginal bets resulted in winners the week prior. Sometimes the margins between 29-10 and 22-28 are much slimmer than I realize. Anyway, I've decided not to try to be ready for circa open this week, will just get back to being ready for a few sides today and the traditional totals releases tomorrow. Would also anticipate that the volume of bets levels off considerably this week, and moving forward.
Click to expand...
Sweet! If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Thanks for sharing.
 
Tulane +1.5/+2.5 -110 (2 units)
Utah -2.5 @ USC -110 (1 unit)
ULL +6.5 @ Ohio -110 (1.5 units)
Michigan State -3 @ NW -110 (1 unit)
Troy -16.5 @ Akron -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse -5.5 v WMU -110 (1 unit)
New Mexico State +6 @ New Mexico -110(1 unit)
LSU -19.5 @ Vandy -125 (1 unit)
Appalachian State +4.5 @ UNC -108 (1.5 units)
Texas -4 v. Oklahoma State -110 (1 unit)
Utah State -2.5 @ SDSU -110 (1 unit)
 
Anyways, in season when he posts futures bets... Always pay attention...he's gonna have a better number more times than not by game week. That and totals are his most impressive capping qualities imo. :shake:
 
Thanks, guys. After a bad week this tends to flare up on any forum, moderated or not.

My goal of posting on this forum is to help others. I learned a ton about how to handicap football from members on this forum and one other. I’m the type of person that likes to put my gratitude into action and do something. While the way I contribute may not be optimal for the hundreds of folks who see what I share every week, the feedback I’ve gotten from most is positive, and they think what I share is useful. I’m not just making up threads and asking for atta boys or attention. There are two main reasons why I’ve been successful betting CFB: the first is that I work really hard. I don’t watch, care about, or bet any other sports. It’s college football for me 365. The second, and probably more important, is that I live my life with a core belief that generous people prosper. If you help others, you will succeed yourself. I’m here to help others, as I have been helped. If you, or anyone, doesn’t see any value in my threads, no problem! To my knowledge, no one is court ordered to click on my thread. I truly wish that every bet I share is a winner for every person. I don’t mind anyone having questions, I do mind if there is a lack of respect or civility. If that’s too much to ask, then I would suggest just either not opening my thread nor posting in it.
 
B.A.R. said:
Listen, he posts these when he plays them. I bet 80-90% of his sides are played well before game week. He's one of the best in the world at identification of potential value IMO.
Click to expand...
Yep. I wouldn't doubt him. Maybe some other shady cappers on other sites, but this dude, and most of the cappers here, are legit.
And, like was already said... many of these are GOY plays from before the season. I wish bookmaker offered these.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks, guys. After a bad week this tends to flare up on any forum, moderated or not.

My goal of posting on this forum is to help others. I learned a ton about how to handicap football from members on this forum and one other. I’m the type of person that likes to put my gratitude into action and do something. While the way I contribute may not be optimal for the hundreds of folks who see what I share every week, the feedback I’ve gotten from most is positive, and they think what I share is useful. I’m not just making up threads and asking for atta boys or attention. There are two main reasons why I’ve been successful betting CFB: the first is that I work really hard. I don’t watch, care about, or bet any other sports. It’s college football for me 365. The second, and probably more important, is that I live my life with a core belief that generous people prosper. If you help others, you will succeed yourself. I’m here to help others, as I have been helped. If you, or anyone, doesn’t see any value in my threads, no problem! To my knowledge, no one is court ordered to click on my thread. I truly wish that every bet I share is a winner for every person. I don’t mind anyone having questions, I do mind if there is a lack of respect or civility. If that’s too much to ask, then I would suggest just either not opening my thread nor posting in it.
Click to expand...
Respect.
 
Dooples, CK is a professional level bettor. Been on this site for years and wins big every year. He's the master of betting early when lines are released (always Offshore until Circa this season) and knowing which way the opening lines are going to move. This year BOL came out with the first opening lines in March - CK was on them that morning and released his plays that day. I know because I was checking BOL/5D every morning to try to catch some great numbers myself and just happened to miss that morning because of a work issue. Most other people were wondering about March Madness and the NBA. NO ONE on here doubts his integrity. But his picks are tough to tail because you're going to get much worst of the number 90% of the time. So you can either bet them and hope the variance doesn't come into play or just use the information. But please do your homework and don't turn this into Covers.
 
whatsthespread? said:
Nope. Check your facts. Just last week Texas Tech went to -1 when he bought at-2.5 and -3
Click to expand...

You pick one random bet that featured a line going the wrong trajectory (he wasn’t the only elite CFB bettor that did this either FYI) as if that’s an indictment on him. Lmao bitch please. He’s one of the very best at this and shouldn’t be scrutinized over something so trivial.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks, guys. After a bad week this tends to flare up on any forum, moderated or not.

My goal of posting on this forum is to help others. I learned a ton about how to handicap football from members on this forum and one other. I’m the type of person that likes to put my gratitude into action and do something. While the way I contribute may not be optimal for the hundreds of folks who see what I share every week, the feedback I’ve gotten from most is positive, and they think what I share is useful. I’m not just making up threads and asking for atta boys or attention. There are two main reasons why I’ve been successful betting CFB: the first is that I work really hard. I don’t watch, care about, or bet any other sports. It’s college football for me 365. The second, and probably more important, is that I live my life with a core belief that generous people prosper. If you help others, you will succeed yourself. I’m here to help others, as I have been helped. If you, or anyone, doesn’t see any value in my threads, no problem! To my knowledge, no one is court ordered to click on my thread. I truly wish that every bet I share is a winner for every person. I don’t mind anyone having questions, I do mind if there is a lack of respect or civility. If that’s too much to ask, then I would suggest just either not opening my thread nor posting in it.
Click to expand...

You’ve handled this much more graciously than I would have dude. Respect.
 
I'll add that if you make a note of what CK posts and then keep an eye on the market sometimes there is movement back towards the original number where you can grab a number closer to his before it moves his way again. There can be some market manipulation that if you pay attention can help you then getting a better number than you see right now.

Also, the bigger plays can give you an idea that he has a larger edge so there might be room for you to scoop up some value.
 
Dopples, the reason CK gets the best of the line consistently is because he has a heavy influence on the line movement. The books profile their players. CK would be profiled as a player that is "sharp". So when he bets they listen, and respect that wager by moving the line accordingly (especially on a multiple unit bet). In addition to that, once that line moves the steam chasers come in and move it even further. Then, once CK releases his play here, his followers move it even further. If the line gets moved too far the sharp players will come in and take a position on the other side, because that side will now hold some perceived value. This is what scottishgambler was referring to in his post about the line moving back towards the original number.
 
All BS aside, had to look at you week 14 thread from LY. I remember a bad week early in the season and thought it might have been week 3. It was 4, but can you draw any correlation between the two or do you chalk it up to books tightening?
 
Louisville +8.5 -110 (1 unit)

Houston/Tulane Under 62 -110 (1.5 units)
AFA/Boise Over 51 -110 (2.5 units)
CMU/Miami Over 49.5 -121 (1.5 units)
Troy/Akron Over 52.5 -110 (2 units)
WMU/Cuse Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
Michigan/Wisconsin Under 48 -110 (2.5 units)
Washington/BYU Over 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
Cal/Ole Miss Over 44 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/Alabama Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
LSU/Vanderbilt Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn/Texas AM Under 51 -113 (1 unit)
Wyoming/Tulsa Over 46 -110 (1 unit)
South Carolina/Missouri Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
SMU/TCU Under 58.5 -110 (1 unit)
SJSU/Arkansas Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
UTSA/North Texas Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame/UGA Under 58 -110 (1.5 units)
Louisville/FSU Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
UCLA/Washington State Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Louisville +8.5 -110 (1 unit)

Houston/Tulane Under 62 -110 (1.5 units)
AFA/Boise Over 51 -110 (2.5 units)
CMU/Miami Over 49.5 -121 (1.5 units)
Troy/Akron Over 52.5 -110 (2 units)
WMU/Cuse Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
Michigan/Wisconsin Under 48 -110 (2.5 units)
Washington/BYU Over 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
Cal/Ole Miss Over 44 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/Alabama Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
LSU/Vanderbilt Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn/Texas AM Under 51 -113 (1 unit)
Wyoming/Tulsa Over 46 -110 (1 unit)
South Carolina/Missouri Over 63 -110 (1 unit)
SMU/TCU Under 58.5 -110 (1 unit)
SJSU/Arkansas Over 57 -110 (1 unit)
UTSA/North Texas Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame/UGA Under 58 -110 (1.5 units)
Louisville/FSU Over 59 -110 (1 unit)
UCLA/Washington State Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Both of us are on the Ville v FSU and Bama v USM overs...nice!
 
booksbestfriend said:
All BS aside, had to look at you week 14 thread from LY. I remember a bad week early in the season and thought it might have been week 3. It was 4, but can you draw any correlation between the two or do you chalk it up to books tightening?
Click to expand...
I typically feel pretty strong about weeks one and two. Weeks three and four I usually have found myself in trouble in one of those weeks. Part of this year's issue was self-imposed, trying to be ready by Sunday at lunch without staying up all saturday night is too difficult for me right now. I have a family and this is still only a hobby, so it didn't make sense to try to continue. Through two weeks and 93 plays, I was hitting at a 67.7% clip, which is higher than I've ever hit over a sustained period of time. So some of it is just things leveling out, and part of it is was having a bad handicap couple with bad money management on a game (Texas Tech) and pushing too aggressively; so the wounds were exacerbated by my self-infliction. I'm currently at 59.4%, which I think is sustainable for me and my process. I don't think that things are very tight yet, books are better at making totals than they were a few years back, but still not very good overall.
 
Any thoughts on Toledo laying 9 @ CSU? Colo St has already played Colorado and Arkansas , so it's not like Toledo will be any kinda step up in class....
 
Terrific post at #27, mr c. k. :shake:

Was at post #27 It’s now at # 18. :shake:
 
Last edited:
Rusty Trombone said:
Any thoughts on Toledo laying 9 @ CSU? Colo St has already played Colorado and Arkansas , so it's not like Toledo will be any kinda step up in class....
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Not too strong of an opinion. Much of game will be determined by how good and how ready QB Pat O'Brien will be for CSU. Their previous starting QB got KO'd late in Arkansas game and thats when they imploded and Ark pulled away. It would be Col St or nothing for me though.
 
Wow.....all these Noobs coming out after CK had a losing week. Is it coincidence?

Don’t tail blindly.......

Like CK said, u don’t have to click on the thread.
If u don’t like what he post, then leave........we oldies here knows the lines will move after CK post his plays......he have a big following.

Ignore these Noobs CK.
Gl this week.
 
Dos_Equis_Guy said:
Check any odds service you want and show me which sportsbook had those numbers at 3:50 pm on Monday.

By the way I have a play for this week:

Michigan State/Northwestern Under 77.5 -110
Click to expand...

I don't have a dog in this fight, but I will say that places like scores and odds don't accurately reflect opens, not even close. To give an example (I like to deal in facts not emotion, that's just me), they have the opener for Clemson v Charlotte as being -41 110 but it was actually -45.5 110, so if someone were to use that as their guide, they would fail to realize that the line actually moved 4.5 points since open. Without having the facts, they could potentially incorrectly state that anyone with a Charlotte +45.5 ticket could have never gotten that line, but it was there at open as I saw it with my own eyes. Just wanted to provide some context that's all.

Hope that helps!
CB
 
Dos_Equis_Guy said:
Air Force Boise over 51 line opened at 55
Miami/CMU over 49.5 was at 51.5
Troy/Akron over 52.5 was at 54.5/55
Syracuse/WMU over 63 was at 66.5
Mich/Wisc Under 48 line opened at 45 lol

Dude just adds 3-5 pts to every bet, none of these were available at the time of his post.
Click to expand...

You can see the open/movement at BetOnline/BM at bettingtalk.com
You'll see Mich/Wisc opener at BOL at 48 at 11:44am PST. Same with Boise St opener, open at 51 at 11:36am PST.
He's not making this up. Openers are soft and move fast with very little money.

Again, as others said you don't have to open this thread. Looks like you created an account just to post this garbage. CK goes out of his way to help others in the thread. I follow him here and on twitter, guys knows more about college football than anyone I know.
 
ArbyMelt said:
You can see the open/movement at BetOnline/BM at bettingtalk.com
You'll see Mich/Wisc opener at BOL at 48 at 11:44am PST. Same with Boise St opener, open at 51 at 11:36am PST.
He's not making this up. Openers are soft and move fast with very little money.

Again, as others said you don't have to open this thread. Looks like you created an account just to post this garbage. CK goes out of his way to help others in the thread. I follow him here and on twitter, guys knows more about college football than anyone I know.
Click to expand...
Great post
 
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