NCAAF Week 2

CrimsonK said:
Purdue -7 v. Vanderbilt -108 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina/Kansas Over 51 -110 (1 unit)
Tulane/Auburn Under 52 -110 (1.5 units)
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Do you think Tulane can hang, or is the under assuming Auburns D stonewalls them and offense comes out flat after crazy comeback win?
 
Hey, CK... You obviously have your Texas +7 from a bet made long ago... What are your thoughts on that bet as it stands today?
 
L8kersFan74 said:
Hey, CK... You obviously have your Texas +7 from a bet made long ago... What are your thoughts on that bet as it stands today?
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This is a macro bet for me. I bet Tom Herman every time that he's a dog. I think there are a lot of advantages for LSU in the game from a schematic standpoint. Hopefully, somehow Herman finds a way again. I wouldn't bet 2 units on it right now if I had a do-over. I'd prob just go 1u at 7.
 
CrimsonK said:
Texas AM/Clemson Under 65 -110 (1 unit)

Like it at 64/64.5, but had a rogue 65 available which is what I had been waiting on.
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History says Clemson goes under in games like this, but on an ad-hoc basis I have a hard time justifying it. What are you seeing?
 
CrimsonK said:
ODU/VT Over 55 -110 (1 unit)
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Talk to me.

I see an improved (but not great ODU defense) against a decent VT offense. VTs OL is in shambles. QB is meh.

The ODU offense is pretty bad. No wideouts to pressure the Vt secondary so they sill stack the box and stop the run.
 
Dollaz said:
Talk to me.

I see an improved (but not great ODU defense) against a decent VT offense. VTs OL is in shambles. QB is meh.

The ODU offense is pretty bad. No wideouts to pressure the Vt secondary so they sill stack the box and stop the run.
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VT seemed to move the ball easily vs. BC last week IMO. Just bad turnovers/fumbles. Have to think @ home, vs. a lesser defense, they should score at will. I like VT & the Over in a blowout. VT's defense should post many 3 and outs... which is actually good for an Over.
 
Inspekdah said:
VT seemed to move the ball easily vs. BC last week IMO. Just bad turnovers/fumbles. Have to think @ home, vs. a lesser defense, they should score at will. I like VT & the Over in a blowout. VT's defense should post many 3 and outs... which is actually good for an Over.
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Gotcha. I think VT might need to get the 40s to get the over. It will depend on their ability to do so. I think ODU is going to try to run clock early.
 
CrimsonK said:
UNC/Miami Over 46 -110 (1 unit)
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I was looking at this one earlier but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Since I will be there, I know I am gonna have a play on the game (insert Carolina Blue discipline exception here) I see it ending up around 28-24 for the good guys, but curious to know where you came out at.

Keep it rolling this weekend man!
CB
 
Hey CK, can you talk a little about the Western Illinois/Colorado State game? I see it's been bet up to 8.5. Thanks!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Do you think Tulane can hang, or is the under assuming Auburns D stonewalls them and offense comes out flat after crazy comeback win?
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Two really good front 7’s. Tulane offense was terrific last week, but unlikely their style has much success against a team that will eat them in the trenches. Aub decimated Oregon OL last week, same fate here, I believe. Tulane defense was great last wk. Bottled up a good FIU offense, held them to 4.5 YPP. I trust wily Willy Fritz to have a defensive gameplan that forces Nix to win through air, something he was unable to do last week. I went under 52. Auburn pretty much the bigger, stronger version of same team. 30-14 Tigers.
 
M.W. said:
History says Clemson goes under in games like this, but on an ad-hoc basis I have a hard time justifying it. What are you seeing?
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Met LY and Clemson (Pre Lawrence) was cruising until a furious comeback by TAMU went down 28-26. Clemson offense wasn't very impressive last week. They were beneficiaries of the 2 long ETN runs and 4 GT TOs. They had TD drives of: 5 plays 16 yards, 1 play of 90 yard run, 1 play of 14 yards, 5 plays for 92 yards on a 62 yard catch, 2 plays of 60 yards w 48 yard run, 8 play 77 yards, 7 plays 67 yards. So that's two really cheap ones after TOs, three merited big plays due to individual brilliance, and the other two pretty avg. Lawrence was more loose with the ball than we've seen from him in past. They lost a ton on defense, but the GT offense gave us no indication of where they are truly at. aTm threw well on them last year and they will likely need to win via air again. aTm OL didnt exactly dominate an overmatched Texas State front last week. Spiller had a really long run, but they didn't have many explosives in the run game. Mond was crisp and the emergence of Ausbon at WR is a big deal for them. We know that Jimbo will want to go slow on offense. LY 131 total snaps aTm enjoyed a 501-414 yardage edge, both vey healthy 7.0 YPP. Clemson has won their last 11 games by 20 PPG or more. That's wild. I think that both teams have questions to answer on defense, but I fairly optimistic about both groups. I think the talent level is more comparable than the gap that exists between Clemson and most of their ACC foes they see each week. I'm getting to where I trust Mond to manage a game. His OL could be his undoing, but i like their skill talent. I don't think Clemson is in jeopardy here, but their 20 point win streak could be. Jimbo Fisher and Clemson DC Brent Venables first squared off in 2004 Rose Bowl when LSU beat Oklahoma 21-14. Jimbo then went 3-3 against Clemson at FSU, and lost by two last year. Fisher never lost by more than 17, with the other MOVs being 10, 3, and 2. I took aTm +21 in the futures market many months ago and took Under 65 this week. I currently prefer the under to the Aggies side at these prices. I think Clemson wins a 38-21 type of game. Should be a really fun game to watch.
 
Dollaz said:
Talk to me.

I see an improved (but not great ODU defense) against a decent VT offense. VTs OL is in shambles. QB is meh.

The ODU offense is pretty bad. No wideouts to pressure the Vt secondary so they sill stack the box and stop the run.
Click to expand...
ODU was about this size dog when they beat VT 49-35 LY. Unfortunately, it appears we need to forget last year's offense for them. They were a sneaky-good air-raid-ish off under LaRussa w 2 big, dominant WRs outside that just owned smaller G5 defenders. Their off was uninspiring in W1 against Norfolk. They went w dual-threat JUCO QB Stone Smartt. He was bleh in opener. They won 24-21 but it was an evenly played game. ODU stalled out on offense after the 1Q and trailed with 5 min to play. Perspective: Liberty beat NS 52-17 LY VT should be angry here, both to avenge LY loss, and also to avenge the loss to BC last week, where they couldnt stay out of their own way. Qb Ryan Willis made bonehead play after bone head play. If he was just decent, they probably win that game. 5 TOs and a -4 TO finish LW. VT should totally shut down the run and it appears that is what ODU may want to do, both with Smartt's skill set, and also the absence of diff makers on perimeter. Eric Kumah should pace the WRs again, and should be motivated against his former VT. Seems to be some bad blood It's fair to assume that VT does a bunch of scoring, and the game could play a little pacey with ODU trailing and needing to air it out. I don't know how much success they will have, and is why I've passed to this point. No conviction. I had this circled LW as an over spot but ODU's poor offensive performance last week could be indicative of some issues that may not be easily correctable in this game as they go way up in class. Under has taken money, which I don't agree with. If it gets bet down more, I may go over. 45-16 Hokies get their revenge.
 
askias said:
Hey CK, can you talk a little about the Western Illinois/Colorado State game? I see it's been bet up to 8.5. Thanks!
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Looks like WIU took a big step back this year. Loses at nearly every position group. Just lost last weekend to an NAIA school that was playing their first game as FCS member. CSU offense isn't gonna be an issue, and that was where WIU was good last year. They aren't gonna be able to trade punches with them, game at altitude. Game CSU HAS o take seriously and win if they want to go bowling. Taking the considerably more talented roster to win by a score appeals to me.
 
Have a few other crossover totals that I've taken, but I'm gonna try to wait to see if Heritage or any other books post them so the market will be a bit more robust. May have some props today, but didn't see anything on BOL that i was in a hurry to bet earlier.
 
CrimsonK said:
Have a few other crossover totals that I've taken, but I'm gonna try to wait to see if Heritage or any other books post them so the market will be a bit more robust. May have some props today, but didn't see anything on BOL that i was in a hurry to bet earlier.
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So selfish
 
CrimsonK said:
ODU was about this size dog when they beat VT 49-35 LY. Unfortunately, it appears we need to forget last year's offense for them. They were a sneaky-good air-raid-ish off under LaRussa w 2 big, dominant WRs outside that just owned smaller G5 defenders. Their off was uninspiring in W1 against Norfolk. They went w dual-threat JUCO QB Stone Smartt. He was bleh in opener. They won 24-21 but it was an evenly played game. ODU stalled out on offense after the 1Q and trailed with 5 min to play. Perspective: Liberty beat NS 52-17 LY VT should be angry here, both to avenge LY loss, and also to avenge the loss to BC last week, where they couldnt stay out of their own way. Qb Ryan Willis made bonehead play after bone head play. If he was just decent, they probably win that game. 5 TOs and a -4 TO finish LW. VT should totally shut down the run and it appears that is what ODU may want to do, both with Smartt's skill set, and also the absence of diff makers on perimeter. Eric Kumah should pace the WRs again, and should be motivated against his former VT. Seems to be some bad blood It's fair to assume that VT does a bunch of scoring, and the game could play a little pacey with ODU trailing and needing to air it out. I don't know how much success they will have, and is why I've passed to this point. No conviction. I had this circled LW as an over spot but ODU's poor offensive performance last week could be indicative of some issues that may not be easily correctable in this game as they go way up in class. Under has taken money, which I don't agree with. If it gets bet down more, I may go over. 45-16 Hokies get their revenge.
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Appreciate your thoughts. As someone that follows OdU more than anyone, I see where you are coming from.

Last year is a complete toss. ODUs offenses is nowhere close. They are trying to possess ball longer and run. Defense changed coordinators and looks much improved (several transfers).

I expect it to be a bit slow to start. The over will be determined by when VT calls off the dogs. Beat of luck!
 
CrimsonK said:
ODU was about this size dog when they beat VT 49-35 LY. Unfortunately, it appears we need to forget last year's offense for them. They were a sneaky-good air-raid-ish off under LaRussa w 2 big, dominant WRs outside that just owned smaller G5 defenders. Their off was uninspiring in W1 against Norfolk. They went w dual-threat JUCO QB Stone Smartt. He was bleh in opener. They won 24-21 but it was an evenly played game. ODU stalled out on offense after the 1Q and trailed with 5 min to play. Perspective: Liberty beat NS 52-17 LY VT should be angry here, both to avenge LY loss, and also to avenge the loss to BC last week, where they couldnt stay out of their own way. Qb Ryan Willis made bonehead play after bone head play. If he was just decent, they probably win that game. 5 TOs and a -4 TO finish LW. VT should totally shut down the run and it appears that is what ODU may want to do, both with Smartt's skill set, and also the absence of diff makers on perimeter. Eric Kumah should pace the WRs again, and should be motivated against his former VT. Seems to be some bad blood It's fair to assume that VT does a bunch of scoring, and the game could play a little pacey with ODU trailing and needing to air it out. I don't know how much success they will have, and is why I've passed to this point. No conviction. I had this circled LW as an over spot but ODU's poor offensive performance last week could be indicative of some issues that may not be easily correctable in this game as they go way up in class. Under has taken money, which I don't agree with. If it gets bet down more, I may go over. 45-16 Hokies get their revenge.
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Kumah and Cunningham add another angle to this game. Gotta think the VT team will want to run it up on them and shut them out on defense, in addition to the revenge spot from last year. And ODU made Kumah and Cunningham team captains.
 
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