NCAAF Week 2

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Overall: 34-20 (+18.40 units)

Few pending for Sun/Mon. Will update week one accordingly.

Wake Forest -18 @ Rice -110 (1 unit)
Texas State +8.5 v. Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss -115 (1 unit)
 
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Previously bet games from the futures market:

Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -2.5 v. Arkansas -110 (1 unit)
 
Nice work CK, bad luck on the A&M total with the two costly red zone TO's. I was very impressed with Kellen Mond, he continues to improve. BOL this week.
 
I’ve got a number on the total where I’m comfortable being in position for middle on this game, already have Under 59:

Notre Dame/Louisville Over 54 -108 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Wake Forest -18 @ Rice -110 (1 unit)
Texas State +8.5 v. Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss -115 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Hate to see you on Wake. Watched Rice v. Army beginning to end and like what Bloomgren is doing in Houston, to the extent that he can. Owls gave Army all it could handle.
 
louie0122 said:
Great job as usual!

If you get a second can you comment on Army vs Michigan? I got some down on Army +24.5 strictly bc I thought the number was a little inflated (now 22.5 available).
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I’m behind this week so all I have time to say is that I agree with that side. I would have bet +24.5 as well. Nice work!
 
Frank Costanza said:
Hate to see you on Wake. Watched Rice v. Army beginning to end and like what Bloomgren is doing in Houston, to the extent that he can. Owls gave Army all it could handle.
Click to expand...

I did as well and was on rice but don’t you think that was matchup based in rice pass d their biggest weakness? Not to mention having all summer to prepare for option makes it much easier to stop imo.. im still skeptical how they look against a team who throws the ball. Army had guys wide open a few times when throwing (of course that doesn’t mean much since they were selling out against option).
 
Futures:
Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -2.5 v. Arkansas -110 (1 unit)

Wake Forest -18 @ Rice -110 (1 unit)
Texas State +8.5 v. Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss -115 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina +10 @ Kansas -110 (1 unit)
Stanford +3.5 @ USC -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State +3.5 v Minnesota -117 (1 unit)

Wake/Rice Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
UAB/Akron Under 51.5 -105 (1.5 units)
WVU/Missouri Under 65 -110 (1 unit)
Tulsa/SJSU Under 57 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/Miss St over 51 -110 (1 unit)
Illinois/UConn Under 65 -110 (1.5 units)
UTSA/Baylor Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
ULM/FSU Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCF/FAU Under 71.5 -110 (1 unit)
WmU/Mich St Under 47 -110 (1 unit)
Buffalo/Penn State Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
Cal/Washignton Over 43 -110 (1 unit)
Stanford/USC Over 43.5 -110 (2 units)

William Mary/Virginia Over 40.5/41.5 -120 (2 units)
Charleston Southern/South Carolina Over 50 -120 (1 unit)
Grambling/La Tech Over 51 -120 (1 unit)
Colorado State -4.5/-6 v. Western Illinois -120 (2 units)
Eastern Kentucky +27 @ Louisville -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State/McNeese State Over 59.5 -120 (1 unit)
Northern Arizona/Arizona Over 65 -120 (1 unit)
 
2daBank said:
I did as well and was on rice but don’t you think that was matchup based in rice pass d their biggest weakness? Not to mention having all summer to prepare for option makes it much easier to stop imo.
Click to expand...
People say that, but the numbers say otherwise. GT and the military acadmies have not done worse in season openers, bowls, and games following an open date for the opponent.
 
great number on stanford/ usc over. stanford backup qb davis didn't have great numbers because they had that on lock down- conservative mode, but i liked what i saw. i really don't think there's a drop off from costello if he's out
 
I didn't get a ton of visual from either USC or Stanford on Saturday but can someone give me a reason why USC is a FG favorite with their backup QB? Is there not much a drop from Daniels? Is the concern more over Stanford? I had to look somewhere else to find that line because it really surprises me that is the line.

Also, you like the under in MSU (which always seems smart) but do you like or see any value in WMU getting the points?

Thanks.
 
KobeJames823 said:
I didn't get a ton of visual from either USC or Stanford on Saturday but can someone give me a reason why USC is a FG favorite with their backup QB? Is there not much a drop from Daniels? Is the concern more over Stanford? I had to look somewhere else to find that line because it really surprises me that is the line.

Also, you like the under in MSU (which always seems smart) but do you like or see any value in WMU getting the points?

Thanks.
Click to expand...
Stanford had their QB knock out of the game as well.
 
It didnt look good. He got buried by a 300lb lineman. I live in the bay area and heard there isnt much of a drop off from Costello to the backup Davis. Their total is only 45. I'd like to know Crimsons thoughts on his overs. There is a history of this game being very high scoring when they play in LA.
 
CrimsonK said:
Previously bet games from the futures market:

Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -2.5 v. Arkansas -110 (1 unit)
Click to expand...


Hate to be the guy to ask question like this but how you feel about AM at the current number catching 17.5?
 
Hey guys - I know I said I would respond tonight, but I'm zapped. Just wrote up blurbs on every week one game and it was a fool's errand. Will get to everything in AM with a pot of coffee.
 
2daBank said:
I did as well and was on rice but don’t you think that was matchup based in rice pass d their biggest weakness? Not to mention having all summer to prepare for option makes it much easier to stop imo.. im still skeptical how they look against a team who throws the ball. Army had guys wide open a few times when throwing (of course that doesn’t mean much since they were selling out against option).
Click to expand...
Ya Rice’s rush defense was good last year, so I think I just missed on their ability to defend the option. My non scientific opinion is that Texas teams don’t see the option ever, so they should struggle more. Not the case last week. They go from the slowest paced team that all they do is run to the fastest paced team that likes to run, but that also has a tank at QB with a ton of skillful pass catchers. Rice was amongst the worst pass defenses in CFB last year, so I’m banking on that being exploited. I believe Wake should score 40+
 
skanless13 said:
GL CK.
Have you considered a play on OR this week?
Click to expand...
I haven’t. I didn’t spend much time on that game. Situationally, I could see it being a flat spot for them after the big week one game and loss at the end. Not a great spot for big favs.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I assume you will like the WF TT over once available? Do you have a best/favorite play ? Any 3 or 3.5 unit bets possible this week? Thanks :)
Click to expand...
Yes, assuming it’s 37 or 38, that seems like a good play. I think they score in 40s. I can’t anticipate what the market will do over the next few days, so I can’t say what plays for certain I will have. It would be unusual for me to make a big bet like that this far removed from open. My plays are weighted above, so that will tell you my confidence level.
 
dickydunn said:
great number on stanford/ usc over. stanford backup qb davis didn't have great numbers because they had that on lock down- conservative mode, but i liked what i saw. i really don't think there's a drop off from costello if he's out
Click to expand...
I don’t care too much who is at QB for them. I prefer KJC, due to his experience, but Mills was a ballyhooed recruit who has good tools. Sounds like KJC should be able to go, based on a blurb I read yesterday. They will be without their NFL OT Walker Little, which I don’t love.
 
KobeJames823 said:
I didn't get a ton of visual from either USC or Stanford on Saturday but can someone give me a reason why USC is a FG favorite with their backup QB? Is there not much a drop from Daniels? Is the concern more over Stanford? I had to look somewhere else to find that line because it really surprises me that is the line.

Also, you like the under in MSU (which always seems smart) but do you like or see any value in WMU getting the points?

Thanks.
Click to expand...
There is a considerable drop off from Daniels to Slovis, imo. I’m not a recruiting apologist, but for perspective, Daniels left HS after junior year to play ball at USC after being offered by every team in nation. Slovis didn’t have a single big offer after his junior year. I’m not saying that makes him worse, but it helps illustrate a point of where they could be in their developments. It was a bad side and total at open, as the market has since backed.

On WMU, not a ton of interest. Implied is 31-15. If WMU scores 15, that will be pretty darn impressive. Dating back to last season, Sparty has kept six of their last seven opponents under 15 points. So now a MAC outfit gonna crack em? I think if you like WMU, then it makes sense to bet the under. The okay would be based on shorting Mich St offense as big fav, I’d guess, which makes more sense to just go under, IMO.
 
lumpy19 said:
Hoping the Tulsa total keeps crashing and we cross the magic 10pt line so I can bet the over and lock in a winner
Click to expand...
Uncanny stuff. Career win % prob 15 lower when I beat close by 10+ than a standard bet where I don’t!
 
booksbestfriend said:
Was reading that he busted his chin. Surely, he has to pass a concussion protocol. Otherwise, they would have stitched him up and sent him back out to play.
Click to expand...
“Sources” on twitter yesterday believe he will play. I tend to agree. Head injury is but a flesh wound. Now go out there and entertain me, none of this mamby pamby stuff! :)
 
wiseplayer said:
It didnt look good. He got buried by a 300lb lineman. I live in the bay area and heard there isnt much of a drop off from Costello to the backup Davis. Their total is only 45. I'd like to know Crimsons thoughts on his overs. There is a history of this game being very high scoring when they play in LA.
Click to expand...
Good info. I’m not gonna overcompicate this one. There are very few instances when a CFB total should be in the low 40’s and this is not one of them. USC now runs an air raid and has a competent play caller, unlike the years with Tee Martin. Perhaps it turns into a massive struggle with two backup QBs going at it, but I’m willing to assume that risk. I think we are going to see a lot of snaps in this game, and we just saw a rebuilt Fresno offense give USC all they could handle. On the other side, there is a chance that northwesterns offense could be amongst the worst in P5 this year, so I believe that scoreline needs to be looked at with an asterisks.
 
2daBank said:
Hate to be the guy to ask question like this but how you feel about AM at the current number catching 17.5?
Click to expand...
Would probably be a pass for me. That is close to what it should be. I’ve got something else in mind for the game, will post it if it materializes.
 
CrimsonK said:
Ya Rice’s rush defense was good last year, so I think I just missed on their ability to defend the option. My non scientific opinion is that Texas teams don’t see the option ever, so they should struggle more. Not the case last week. They go from the slowest paced team that all they do is run to the fastest paced team that likes to run, but that also has a tank at QB with a ton of skillful pass catchers. Rice was amongst the worst pass defenses in CFB last year, so I’m banking on that being exploited. I believe Wake should score 40+
Click to expand...
I'd just beware the short-week lookahead. The Deacs play UNC on Friday, and the Tar Heels walloped them 50-14 last time they played.
 
CrimsonK said:
Futures:
Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss -2.5 v. Arkansas -110 (1 unit)

Wake Forest -18 @ Rice -110 (1 unit)
Texas State +8.5 v. Wyoming -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss -115 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina +10 @ Kansas -110 (1 unit)
Stanford +3.5 @ USC -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State +3.5 v Minnesota -117 (1 unit)

Wake/Rice Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
UAB/Akron Under 51.5 -105 (1.5 units)
WVU/Missouri Under 65 -110 (1 unit)
Tulsa/SJSU Under 57 -110 (1 unit)
Southern Miss/Miss St over 51 -110 (1 unit)
Illinois/UConn Under 65 -110 (1.5 units)
UTSA/Baylor Over 55.5 -110 (1.5 units)
ULM/FSU Over 59.5 -110 (1 unit)
UCF/FAU Under 71.5 -110 (1 unit)
WmU/Mich St Under 47 -110 (1 unit)
Buffalo/Penn State Under 58 -110 (1 unit)
Cal/Washignton Over 43 -110 (1 unit)
Stanford/USC Over 43.5 -110 (2 units)

William Mary/Virginia Over 40.5/41.5 -120 (2 units)
Charleston Southern/South Carolina Over 50 -120 (1 unit)
Grambling/La Tech Over 51 -120 (1 unit)
Colorado State -4.5/-6 v. Western Illinois -120 (2 units)
Eastern Kentucky +27 @ Louisville -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State/McNeese State Over 59.5 -120 (1 unit)
Northern Arizona/Arizona Over 65 -120 (1 unit)
Click to expand...

Great info! I was wondering if you could please offer a brief tidbit of advice if you get a spare minute.. my book isn't quite as punctual releasing O/U totals; Wake/Rice Over 59 was finally released earlier today. Since it is obviously 3.5 points higher than what you wagered at 1.5 units, would you recommend placing (an albeit) smaller wager on that over? Or recommend avoiding it all together since it is at 59 now? Thanks!
 
Games played in the futures market:

Week 3:
Washington State -6 v. Houston -110 (1 unit) (Also have Houston +9/10)

Week 4:
Alabama -17.5 @ South Carolina -110 (1 unit)
Michigan State -3 @ Northwestern. -110 (1 unit)

Week 5:
Texas Tech +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)

Week 9:
FSU -1 v. Syracuse -115 (1 unit)

Week 10:
Purdue +2 v. Nebraska -110 (1 unit)

Week 11:
Texas Tech +1 @ WVU -110 (1.5 units)

Week 12:
Wisconsin +3 @ Nebraska -110 (1.5 units)
 
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KD2180 said:
Great info! I was wondering if you could please offer a brief tidbit of advice if you get a spare minute.. my book isn't quite as punctual releasing O/U totals; Wake/Rice Over 59 was finally released earlier today. Since it is obviously 3.5 points higher than what you wagered at 1.5 units, would you recommend placing (an albeit) smaller wager on that over? Or recommend avoiding it all together since it is at 59 now? Thanks!
Click to expand...
I would play it for 1 unit there.
 
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