NCAAF Week 14

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 1: 27-13 (+28.60 units)
Week 2: 37-16 (+25.30 units)
Week 3: 24-14 (+10.70 units)
Week 4: 23-22 (-10.40 units)
Week 5: 21-18 (+6.00 units)
Week 6: 22-7 (+21.84 units)
Week 7: 21-15 (+8.65 units)
Week 8: 19-19 (-1.82 units)
Week 9: 22-15 (+8.55 units)
Week 10: 20-10 (+9.83 units)
Week 11: 17-10 (+6.00 units)
Week 12: 15-19 (-5.78 units)
Week 13: 22-13 (+10.47 units)
Overall: 290-191 (+117.94 units)

Memphis +10 v. UCF -110 (1 unit)
 
FWIW, I like Georgia getting 10.5+ against bama but as a Bama fan, I'm not going to bet against them and feel that internal conflict while watching the game as a fan.
 
If you think the B1G is going Over, that isn't likely good for Northwestern, who probably want a grinder.
Yep, I think there is at least a decent chance that Ohio State scores near this total themselves. Good news is that Northwestern will accomodate them with pace and compete for 4Q as well. I was hoping the total would come low as I preferred to that to Ohio State but I almost played the -13 as well at open.
 
Surprised you like jorja plus the pts.
I’ve been pretty critical of them and no stranger to fading them this year but this isn’t a great matchup for Bama, imo. Only team they’ve faced, to this point, with the combo of capable passing attack and strong run game that can keep Bama guessing.
 
Have one FCS playoff game I took. May try to wait to post anything else I take on these until Saturday when more shops open and I dig in further.

Wofford/Kennesaw State Under 57.5 -120 (1 unit)
 
@Frank Costanza RE: Egg Bowl Nastiness

I think you have to understand a bit about the state of mississippi. Firstly, outside of Ole Miss or Miss State football, you got nothing as a sports fan. You can be a Braves fan in baseball or something similar but it's not like the masses find their identity in that the way they do being a fan of their CFB team. I think identity is the key principle for what makes this so heated. When you feel your identity is being challenged or at stake, it's nearly impossible to not take things personally. There is a clear dicotomy in class stereotype for each fan base. Ole miss are the rich, stuck up, pretentious, doctors, lawyers, business professionals which the Grove experience exemplifies. Miss State are the ignorant, poor, red neck, low-class farmers. You could literally drive by Starkville or their stadium and miss it. All throughout history we can see conflict between various socioeconomic and racial classes. Both of those very much exist in this rivalry. Mississippi, as a state, is dirt poor, ass backwards in their policies, and one of the most disgustingly racist places in America. I believe they are 50 years behind the majority of the USA in many areas. It is rife with corruption. It starts at the very highest level of their government and trickles down all the way to lowest rung of the caste. We've gotten a few glimpses in recent years to the cheating that both programs have been involved in. I can assure you, that's a thimble's worth in an ocean of it. Only thing worse than losing is believing you lost because the other side cheated and it wasn't a fair fight. So I think that really has both a direct and indirect impact on the state, and the people. Lotta bitterness, for lotta good reasons. Another more pure football reason is that more often than not, this game was the only game of significance for either team. Miss St, in particular, has been so historically bad that there are many seasons where the quality of their year was only determined by their success in this game. Keep in mind they are already perceived to be second class citizens in the state by the more affluent Ole Miss contingent. If you are so singularly focused on the outcome of what happens in a 60 minute game and things go south, it's easy to see why tempers spiral out of control. Both rosters are primarily populated with players that grew up in the state, battling as high school players and being immersed in grandad's and dad's stories about why the other side sucks. It's personal. Back to my previous point, this was Ole Miss' whole season this year. Nothing else mattered and they got embarassed. We got another brawl as a result. I think the number one way to hurt someone is to do something or say something that challenges or damages their identity. If you'll allow me, whether or not you believe biblical stories, it will help illustrate a point. There is a story where satan and Jesus are in direct conflict. You look at the consistent theme of that exchange and satan is pressing one button. "If you are really the Son of God...". Challenging his identity. Let's say for example one of us that like to bet sports gets too wrapped up in betting. It becomes a part of who we are as opposed to just something we do. It becomes a part of our identity. Very dangerous. Then let's say some life circumstance changes and you can no longer bet anymore or maybe you still can bet but you go from being a big winner to a loser. If being a bettor is who you are, your life can crumble in a hurry. It feels as if part of the fiber of your being is stripped away. if that's where you find much of your self worth and approval for yourself or from others, either of those circumstances can be devastating. If it's not a part of your identity and it's just an activity that yoiu enjoy, you can grieve the loss of it for a bit and keep living a fulfilled life. Again, I think that too much identity is being found by both fan bases here and a result of that and the other aforementioned circumstances, it just has turned into a game that is really fueled by a lot of hatred and pain. My .02c.
 
NC State -23 v. ECU -110 (1 unit)

ECU QB Holton Tim Tebow Ahlers isn't practicing and may not play Saturday. I'm off.
 
UAB/MTSU Under 47 -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State/Boise State Under 51 -110 (1 unit)

Any reason, that you know of, for the bump in boise total? Not used to seeing lines, and especially totals, moving against you. Is it just the whole in-season rematch angle? IMO when either defense is on the field, it will be the best unit on the field with the best players on the field. I dont see it being much different than the first meeting, which was lucky to get to 41...
 
Any reason, that you know of, for the bump in boise total? Not used to seeing lines, and especially totals, moving against you. Is it just the whole in-season rematch angle? IMO when either defense is on the field, it will be the best unit on the field with the best players on the field. I dont see it being much different than the first meeting, which was lucky to get to 41...
I do not know why the move happened. I think Boise defense is a good bit worse than some of the raw numbers indicate and the Fresno pass off matches up favorably with their pass def. I do think Boise tends to play better defense in their big games. I would prob disagree that the first matchup was lucky to get to 41, almost 850 yards and both teams were a little over 6 YPP. They've played three times in past year though and it's never gone over 45. I don't agree with the move but I do understand how some would believe Boise def isnt up to snuff. I do think it's highly unlikely that Boise runs the ball as well as they did last time out so it could mean both teams are throwing more, bigger plays, more plays, etc. 51.5 was the number I really wanted but settled for 51 once it looked like the early market was giving it resistance there. Should be close game, so overtime is a factor. Anyway, lotta rambling to say that I dont know.
 
This went up over a key number and bottom could potentially fall out as soon as tomorrow if Houston were to accept Charlotte job. Either way, really like the angle and matchup.

FCS Playoffs

Colgate +7.5 v James Madison -110 (1 unit)
 
still can't believe no definitive word on ecu qb. have it from a good source he is a no go. big drop to second qb. GL, Bmac
 
agree with others about your Eggbowl write up, excellent in every way.

Showed it to my wife who is from Meridian and she said you hit a bullseye.
Her older brother went to Ole Miss, middle brother to Miss State, she went on tennis scholarship to So Miss (Brett Favre years).
Things are usually smooth with them except every November ; not for the day, or a week but for almost the whole month things change then slowly drift back to being civil and usually ok by Christmas.
 
This went up over a key number and bottom could potentially fall out as soon as tomorrow if Houston were to accept Charlotte job. Either way, really like the angle and matchup.

FCS Playoffs

Colgate +7.5 v James Madison -110 (1 unit)

Colgates schedule was pathetic but they did beat New Hampshire while the Dukes lost to them. Does seem to be a lot of points with such a low total and weather looks shitty with a 50% chance of precipitation and the high hovering around 35. Great work and continued success Crimson.
 
UNH had one of their worst seasons in recent history so don't use them as the litmus test. Them beating JMU this year was an absolute fluke.
 
Drake/Iowa State Under 53.5 -110 (1 unit)

Weather helps this snoozer. ISU can clear the bench and get ready to smack an ACC team in a bowl.
 
Boise just bullied a somewhat unmotivated Fresno in match 1. Ran for chunk yards in the 2h. This should be pretty different I believe.

Exactly. Fresno got completely dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I don't think the final score was indicative of how dominant Boise was. Not sure how Fresno reverses that the second time around. I'm not betting the game, but if I were, I'd certainly be on the Broncos.
 
Exactly. Fresno got completely dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I don't think the final score was indicative of how dominant Boise was. Not sure how Fresno reverses that the second time around. I'm not betting the game, but if I were, I'd certainly be on the Broncos.
My point was that Fresno had absolutely zero to play for that game and Boise wouldn't be here without winning it. I love Fresno, have them plus 2.5 but was very much hoping for a significant ML wager but it never got up to where I wanted it to and now that isn't going to happen. I firmly believe Fresno are much the better team than Boise, and tougher too. Just not that night and it looked like Fresno just wanted to go home. Seriously doubt Boise dominates either side this go round.
 
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