NCAAF Week 13

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Week 0: 3-1 (+1.87 units)
Week 1: 31-19 (+16.53 units)
Week 2: 29-10 (+26.28 units)
Week 3: 22-28 (-16.76 units)
Week 4: 28-19 (+2.67 units)
Week 5: 19-15 (+1.28 units)
Week 6: 21-16 (-5.06 units)
Week 7: 19-13 (+11.46 units)
Week 8: 22-19 (+9.23 units)
Week 9: 14-16 (-3.85 units)
Week 10: 22-10 (+15.02 units)
Week 11: 18-10 (+8.05 units)
Week 12: 22-15 (+7.42 units)
Overall: 270-191 (+74.14 units)

Games played in futures market:

Cincinnati -3 v Temple -120 (1 unit)
TCU +25.5 @ Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
TCU +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2.5 units)
Oklahoma -20 v. TCU +100 (2.5 units)
Baylor +1.5 v. Texas -110 (1.5 units)
Texas A&M +15.5 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit)
Missouri -1.5 v. Tennessee -110 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech -6 v. Pitt -120 (1.5 units)
Memphis -3 @ USF -121 (1.5 units)
 
Indiana +8 v. Michigan -110 (1 unit)
Texas AM +15.5 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit) (2 total)
Wake Forest -5.5 v Duke -110 (1 unit)
Temple +11.5 @ Cincinnati -110 (1 unit)
Stanford -2.5 v. Cal -105 (1 unit)
Oregon State +14 v. Washington State -115 (1 unit)
WKU +5.5 @ S Miss -110 (1 unit)
Texas +5 @ Baylor -105 (1 unit)
Tennessee +4.5 @ Missouri -110 (1 unit)
Arkansas +44.5 @ LSU -110 (1 unit)
SJSU -5.5 @ UNLV -110 (1 unit)
 
South Alabama +11 @ Georgia State -110 (1.5 units)

WVU +8 v Oklahoma State -108 (2 units)

Take if you can above 7, I’m going to middle when/if it has a personnel related crash
 
Col St/Wyoming Over 48 -105 (1.5 units)
Texas AM/Georgia Under 46.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ok State/WVU Over 57.5 -105 (1 unit)
Ok State/WVU Under 61 -110 (1 unit)
Temple/Cincinnati Under 48 -110 (1 unit)
Liberty/Virginia Over 53.5 -115 (1 unit)
Kansas/Iowa State Under 60 -115 (1 unit)
Minnesota/NW Under 41 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon/Arizona State Under 57 -110 (1.5 units)
Utah/Zona Under 59 -110 (1 unit)
Texas State/App State Under 55 -110 (1 unit)
BC/ND Over 61 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State/Washington State Over 74.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas/Baylor Under 61 -110 (1.5 units)
UCF/Tulane Over 69 -110 (1 unit)
Pitt/VT Under 49.5 -114 (1 unit)
Houston/Tulsa Under 60 -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee/Missouri Under 45.5 -110 (1 unit)
Penn State/Ohio State Under 60 -110 (2 units)
Boise State/Utah State Under 54 -110 (1 unit)
 
You mean the move on the total?

Yeah, I'll be playing the over at the current number.
 
LSU vs UGA on a neutral NOT ATL.....although I think the turf helps LSU. Both please unless a difference and you have the time
 
twinkie13 said:
LSU vs UGA on a neutral NOT ATL.....although I think the turf helps LSU. Both please unless a difference and you have the time
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t make it any diff, both teams will be well represented and 1 Cajun is worth 3 Athenians anyway.

I would say it will come LSU -3.5/4 and a total around 57/58 While LSUs defense sucks and will get shredded by CFP teams, I don’t think Georgia poses much of a threat. Their best receiver is their RB and they don’t have any difference makers on the perimeter. I think stopping them is a pretty straightforward ask. They are going to try to play keep away for as long as possible, so perhaps my total is a bit high, especially when considering they haven’t allowed a team to score 20 in regulation yet. If y’all get behind, catching up is no prob, if they get behind and Fromm is asked to throw 30+ times, they face the reality that they are 0-5 all time when he does that. He’s fine to check in and out of runs and take the easy stuff, but he ain’t gonna win a duel with JB and all your skill guys.
 
Good analysis there. People will drool over LSU at that price too. Fromm did go 20-30 vs Florida. So the 0-5 we can ammend to 31 or more attempts.
 
lumpy19 said:
Those are the worst 2-3 years, old and wrinkly
Click to expand...
No one lives forever, no one. But with advances in modern science and my high level income, it's not crazy to think I can live to be 245, maybe 300. Heck, I just read in the newspaper that they put a pig heart in some guy from Russia. Do you know what that means?
 
Onto less jovial matters:

I’ve zeroed out my current bedlam bet with Oklahoma -10.5 -110 (1 unit). I already had ok State for 1u at +10.5 . I added Oklahoma State +15.5 -110 for 1u at a diff out.

I also took Clemson -23 @ South Carolina -105 (1 unit)

I usually like to avoid big chalk in rivalry games, but it’s possible that South Carolina doesn’t score with Bryan Edwards being ruled out.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
What are your best sites/sources for injury information? You're on top of injuries all the time.
Click to expand...
Twitter is the best. Skill guy health is kinda like breathing for me, due to my role as s college fantasy analyst, but I read a lot both on twitter and local beats.

Sometimes I’m able to get info prior to public consumption just through my network.
 
CK, if you have time I’d love to hear your thoughts on an Oregon/Utah PAC Championship. Do you think the winner of that should advance to the CFP? Could you see either knocking off a #1 seeded LSU?

Thanks
 
CrimsonK said:
Onto less jovial matters:

I’ve zeroed out my current bedlam bet with Oklahoma -10.5 -110 (1 unit). I already had ok State for 1u at +10.5 . I added Oklahoma State +15.5 -110 for 1u at a diff out.

I also took Clemson -23 @ South Carolina -105 (1 unit)

I usually like to avoid big chalk in rivalry games, but it’s possible that South Carolina doesn’t score with Bryan Edwards being ruled out.
Click to expand...
I like that Okie St QB
 
louie0122 said:
CK, if you have time I’d love to hear your thoughts on an Oregon/Utah PAC Championship. Do you think the winner of that should advance to the CFP? Could you see either knocking off a #1 seeded LSU?

Thanks
Click to expand...
I think it’s going to be a really good game. I would give Utah a slight edge in the game, but I imagine it’s lined less than 3 either way with a high 40’s total.

I think it would depend what happens elsewhere. I personally would prefer to see the winner make it as opposed to Georgia or Alabama. I think the stage is set for the winner to make it.

I think both teams could play LSU tough. They wouldn’t be big underdogs to them, I don’t think. The key to beating LSU is using a spread passing offense with good WRs, which neither team will come close to what Clemson, Ohio State, or Oklahoma offenses could offer in that regard. I would be concerned for Utah that they would put their corners on an island against LSU the way they did against USC and it could be ugly again. There are very, very few teams that can contain a spread passing attack with a pro QB and WRs.
 
twinkie13 said:
I like that Okie St QB
Click to expand...
He’s not a very good decision maker yet and is way too careless with the ball, but he will start for them for 2 more and probably 3 years. If he continues to get comfortable he will be Heisman candidate in 2021.

It’s not officially confirmed yet, but he should miss this weeks game. He’s got a good backup, Dru Brown from Hawaii. Will mean less QB run game and more passing.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Penn St D gonna rise up? Penn St O gonna struggle? Wondering about the under 60
Click to expand...
I think the answer would be both. Penn st has one really dynamic guy that is critical to their offense and that’s KJ Hamler. He’s kinda like Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs. He’s questionable this week. That would really hurt their ability to be explosive. I don’t think highly of penn state offense in general. I think if you can make Clifford stay in pocket and throw as opposed to run, this becomes a marginal offense. Their defense should help them though. Ohio State hasn’t faced very many teams with comparable athletes, and PSU is def a step below, but closer. At their core, OSU is a run offense. Penn State is super tough to run on. We haven’t seen Fields challenged too much yet in the pass game and he will be here. Usually when two teams with good defenses play late in year like this I lean to the Under. So many of these offensive numbers gets trumped up by beating up patsies.
 
I'm a big Spencer Sanders fan - just think he has outstanding upside. Been careless with the ball but has improved over the last 2 games w/ just a pick in each. Definitely needs to work on his ball security but every other facet of his game is very good and is only likely to get better. He's just a freshman.

Crimson - I read where Sanders was back at practice Sunday after leaving the game on Saturday with the hand injury. Are you seeing where his injury has worsened / been aggravated?
 
Frank Costanza said:
I'm a big Spencer Sanders fan - just think he has outstanding upside. Been careless with the ball but has improved over the last 2 games w/ just a pick in each. Definitely needs to work on his ball security but every other facet of his game is very good and is only likely to get better. He's just a freshman.

Crimson - I read where Sanders was back at practice Sunday after leaving the game on Saturday with the hand injury. Are you seeing where his injury has worsened / been aggravated?
Click to expand...
I was told early in week that he had surgery on it. I read the reports that he was at practice as well on sunday wearing a brace. If my info was good, he had thumb surgery Monday. If my info was bad, we have a QB wearing a brace on an injured thumb, which would prob be more advantageous for the WVU side than him actually missing. We may not know until game time. I’m starting Brown in every DFS lineup I make, so we shall see!
 
CrimsonK said:
He’s not a very good decision maker yet and is way too careless with the ball, but he will start for them for 2 more and probably 3 years. If he continues to get comfortable he will be Heisman candidate in 2021.

It’s not officially confirmed yet, but he should miss this weeks game. He’s got a good backup, Dru Brown from Hawaii. Will mean less QB run game and more passing.
Click to expand...
Agree on Heisman
 
CrimsonK said:
I think it’s going to be a really good game. I would give Utah a slight edge in the game, but I imagine it’s lined less than 3 either way with a high 40’s total.

I think it would depend what happens elsewhere. I personally would prefer to see the winner make it as opposed to Georgia or Alabama. I think the stage is set for the winner to make it.

I think both teams could play LSU tough. They wouldn’t be big underdogs to them, I don’t think. The key to beating LSU is using a spread passing offense with good WRs, which neither team will come close to what Clemson, Ohio State, or Oklahoma offenses could offer in that regard. I would be concerned for Utah that they would put their corners on an island against LSU the way they did against USC and it could be ugly again. There are very, very few teams that can contain a spread passing attack with a pro QB and WRs.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the feedback. I have Utah to win the PAC at +465 and to win the NC at +7000, so I'm just weighing out my options and your insight is always appreciated.
 
louie0122 said:
Thank you for the feedback. I have Utah to win the PAC at +465 and to win the NC at +7000, so I'm just weighing out my options and your insight is always appreciated.
Click to expand...
You’re in the catbird seat on the PAC12 ticket and your prob slightly better than 70/1 but can’t see how you could profit from that at this stage. Just gotta ride it and pray.
 
CrimsonK said:
I think it’s going to be a really good game. I would give Utah a slight edge in the game, but I imagine it’s lined less than 3 either way with a high 40’s total.

I think it would depend what happens elsewhere. I personally would prefer to see the winner make it as opposed to Georgia or Alabama. I think the stage is set for the winner to make it.

I think both teams could play LSU tough. They wouldn’t be big underdogs to them, I don’t think. The key to beating LSU is using a spread passing offense with good WRs, which neither team will come close to what Clemson, Ohio State, or Oklahoma offenses could offer in that regard. I would be concerned for Utah that they would put their corners on an island against LSU the way they did against USC and it could be ugly again. There are very, very few teams that can contain a spread passing attack with a pro QB and WRs.
Click to expand...

If Uga wins out pac-12 winner is pretty much fucked you gotta assume. Would expect they jump bama assuming both utes and ducks win out up to that game.

Agree either could give LSU a Game but curious what you consider not “big underdogs”? I’d guess it be LSU-10 at least. Not saying I think tigers would cover just where I think spread would be.. do we think it a forgone conclusion tigers stay 1 if the win out? I think osu the best team and would deserve the 1 spot if they manage to run the table vs psu/Michigan, and big10 championship, that will make their resume every bit as strong as LSU, all the metrics I’ve ssen favor osu, plus they win the eye test imo. I think it be kinda a joke to make osu/Clemson the 2/3 game cause imo they the best 2 teams in the country. I think it obviously be better for pac12 champ for LSU to remain 1 cause I would give them a much better chance vs LSU defense than osu or Clemson.
 
IF LSU wins out how can you use an eye test to overcome a resume test? 2018 should have zero bearing on the rankings. LSU's D has looked awful when up 20+ in the 2nd half but the competition level up to this point is not in the same vicinity. Do I know LSU could beat both of them? Of course not but I do know that they have earned their #1 ranking. If LSU wins out, how do they lose ground by finishing the toughest schedule with another top 5 win?
 
2daBank said:
If Uga wins out pac-12 winner is pretty much fucked you gotta assume. Would expect they jump bama assuming both utes and ducks win out up to that game.

Agree either could give LSU a Game but curious what you consider not “big underdogs”? I’d guess it be LSU-10 at least. Not saying I think tigers would cover just where I think spread would be.. do we think it a forgone conclusion tigers stay 1 if the win out? I think osu the best team and would deserve the 1 spot if they manage to run the table vs psu/Michigan, and big10 championship, that will make their resume every bit as strong as LSU, all the metrics I’ve ssen favor osu, plus they win the eye test imo. I think it be kinda a joke to make osu/Clemson the 2/3 game cause imo they the best 2 teams in the country. I think it obviously be better for pac12 champ for LSU to remain 1 cause I would give them a much better chance vs LSU defense than osu or Clemson.
Click to expand...
I would agree about UGA getting in if they win out.

I think LSU would/should be less than a TD fav over either P12 foe. I would play +10 on either for multiple units.

I think LSU will remain number one if they win out. A win over the fourth team for an SEC title would influence enough recency bias to solidify that, IMO.
 
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