NCAAF Week 13

[CrimsonK]

Is it possible they keep lsu number 1 just to make it more likely there are 2 competitive games in the semis?

This is above my pay grade. For as big a college fan as I am, I don’t pay much attention to rankings until December. Instead I contemplate ways GT could give games away on prime time.

 

[CrimsonK]

MACtion vs GT/NCST .... hmmmmm

Which is more Degen

MACtion -120
Random ACC +110

I think the MAC champion would be -120 ML Over NC State.

 

[CrimsonK]

I usually don’t victory lap, but this one was personal. It felt like me vs MACtion and I answered the bell and he didn’t!

 

[2daBank]

IF LSU wins out how can you use an eye test to overcome a resume test? 2018 should have zero bearing on the rankings. LSU's D has looked awful when up 20+ in the 2nd half but the competition level up to this point is not in the same vicinity. Do I know LSU could beat both of them? Of course not but I do know that they have earned their #1 ranking. If LSU wins out, how do they lose ground by finishing the toughest schedule with another top 5 win?

How you saying osu resume isn’t as strong if they win out? Osu wins every metric, equally good wins, and the eye test.

Cincy only loss still was getting destroyed by osu. Psu been ranked as high as 4, assuming gophers win out to championship Game they will be ranked very high. Indiana on road i believe was good win, wiscy on road, Michigan boarder line top 10 team now. I believe osu sos at this point isn’t real far behind LSU and they gonna play at least 2 more top 15 teams, prob 3 with 2 of them possibly top 10 so LSU doesn’t really win the resume argument by more than a cunt hair if at all.

 

[2daBank]

I would agree about UGA getting in if they win out.

I think LSU would/should be less than a TD fav over either P12 foe. I would play +10 on either for multiple units.

I think LSU will remain number one if they win out. A win over the fourth team for an SEC title would influence enough recency bias to solidify that, IMO.

I don’t doubt they stay at one, just disagree with it. I’d be shocked if LSU wasn’t -10 vs pac12 champ. Certainly not saying I’d be on them just can’t see them not being well over a td. I could be wrong, it happens from time to time, lol.,no damn way they less than a td, I’m positive of that.

 

[CrimsonK]

I don’t doubt they stay at one, just disagree with it. I’d be shocked if LSU wasn’t -10 vs pac12 champ. Certainly not saying I’d be on them just can’t see them not being well over a td. I could be wrong, it happens from time to time, lol.,no damn way they less than a td, I’m positive of that.

I’ll ask the head guy at circa tomorrow morning and see if he could give us numbers.

 

[2daBank]

I’ll ask the head guy at circa tomorrow morning and see if he could give us numbers.

Awesome. Certainly interested. I’m almost positive I was listening to maybe RJ bell podcast last week and they were talking bout where the lines would be in playoffs and think they were saying LSU-10 vs pac12 champ. Those guys usually pretty sharp in that regard.

 

[2daBank]

And hell if one of ducks or utes destroys the other could certainly change things a little., don’t think under a td cause obviously if LSU 1 that means they just beat uga.

 

[CrimsonK]

Liberty/Virginia Under 56 -110 (1 unit)

Weather.

 

[CrimsonK]

I’ll ask the head guy at circa tomorrow morning and see if he could give us numbers.

Found his top 25 raw PRs on twitter:

LSU -6 v Utah
LSU -8.5 v Oregon

 

[CrimsonK]

Friday Prop:

Austin Conway Over 2 catches +105 (1 unit)

 

[jmm102]

WVU +8 v Oklahoma State -108 (2 units)

Take if you can above 7, I’m going to middle when/if it has a personnel related crash

Do you still plan to buy back on Ok State or let the 2u ride?

 

[CrimsonK]

Do you still plan to buy back on Ok State or let the 2u ride?

Thanks for reminding me to post.

Oklahoma State -5.5 @ WVU -108 (1 unit)

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for reminding me to post.

Oklahoma State -5.5 @ WVU -108 (1 unit)

Ditto here. Leggo 6-7-8.

 

[B.A.R.]

Friday Prop:

Austin Conway Over 2 catches +105 (1 unit)

Well done prop king.

 

[2daBank]

Found his top 25 raw PRs on twitter:

LSU -6 v Utah
LSU -8.5 v Oregon

Interesting, are utes higher than ducks in your power rankings as well? I woulda thought they were close enough one wouldn’t be less than 7 with the other above.

I don’t think I could pass on LSU if it was less than a td, although their d is certainly suspect and normally I’m a defense kinda guy.

 

[s--k]

I see OkSt has regained a little, 6 currently where I look.

Surprised the Sanders out, Brown in dynamic didn't create more of a line shift. We've never seen Brown play meaningful football there I don't believe. The assumption must be as long as he is average just give Hubbard the ball more. No Sanders does make them easier to defend though.

 

[L8kersFan74]

See you obviously like Dru Brown a lot as a huge DFS value play today..... Any other DFS tips or anybody else you really like today, CK? Thanks

 

[CrimsonK]

Interesting, are utes higher than ducks in your power rankings as well? I woulda thought they were close enough one wouldn’t be less than 7 with the other above.

I don’t think I could pass on LSU if it was less than a td, although their d is certainly suspect and normally I’m a defense kinda guy.

I don’t make power ratings anymore. I can generally answer your question and say that I would favor Utah against Oregon and it would be by less than 3 as well.

 

[frattycapper22]

So you have 2u on WV +8.5 and 1u on OK State -5.5. Correct?

 

[CrimsonK]

See you obviously like Dru Brown a lot as a huge DFS value play today..... Any other DFS tips or anybody else you really like today, CK? Thanks

I would use Kelley Joiner for USF at $3,500 on DK. He’s listed as a WR but will be USF RB1 today. If you use him and Brown, you’ve got space for Hubbard, Proche, and other chalk. I like Buechele and stacking his WRs. Javian Hawkins and Breece Hall are other main Slate backs I like. I think on the night skate, KJ Jefferson and John Emery are valuable at QB and RB.

 

[jmm102]

Is there still any concern that Brown may be injured also?

 

[CrimsonK]

Is there still any concern that Brown may be injured also?

I’ve read some about that as well. I am under the assumption that he’s fine, but it’s only an assumption.

 

[CrimsonK]

So you have 2u on WV +8.5 and 1u on OK State -5.5. Correct?

2 on +8
1 on -5.5

 

[M.W.]

IF LSU wins out how can you use an eye test to overcome a resume test? 2018 should have zero bearing on the rankings. LSU's D has looked awful when up 20+ in the 2nd half but the competition level up to this point is not in the same vicinity. Do I know LSU could beat both of them? Of course not but I do know that they have earned their #1 ranking. If LSU wins out, how do they lose ground by finishing the toughest schedule with another top 5 win?

For a lot of us, and the oddsmakers, it wouldn't be losing ground. As for the Committee, the way LSU loses ground is that the Committee's rankings aren't really grounded in anything objective. They don't really know what they're doing, so son't expect consistency.

 

[CrimsonK]

Minnesota/NW Over 39 -113 (1 unit)

Morgan is a go at QB. Erased my angle.

 

[CrimsonK]

Samford/Auburn Under 64 -110 (1 unit)

 

[Timh]

BOL CK - appreciate all your sharing, great work on the season.

 

[twinkie13]

Interesting, are utes higher than ducks in your power rankings as well? I woulda thought they were close enough one wouldn’t be less than 7 with the other above.

I don’t think I could pass on LSU if it was less than a td, although their d is certainly suspect and normally I’m a defense kinda guy.

I don’t bet nearly as much as I used to. That Utah line I would have LSU for a Panerai

 

[CrimsonK]

Ian Book Over 234.5 pass yards -120 (1 unit)
Keaontay Ingram Over 76.5 rush & rec -120 (1 unit)

 

[B.A.R.]

2 on +8
1 on -5.5

+3. Thx you sir.

 

[CrimsonK]

UGA -4.5 2H -105 (1 unit)

 

[scottishgambler]

Could you share a quick opinion on Temple/Cincy?

 

[CrimsonK]

Could you share a quick opinion on Temple/Cincy?

Sorry, just saw this. I think it will be either 6-0 or 5-0 Cincy at half. Game prob finishes with that same exact score so I win em all.

 

[wiseplayer]

Sorry, just saw this. I think it will be either 6-0 or 5-0 Cincy at half. Game prob finishes with that same exact score so I win em all.

Lol