NCAA Week Two

SHSUHorn

SHSUHorn

Thief
Record over the years on here and the "other" site.

NCAA CFB 2002-2003
Sides 118-88 +70.28 UNITS

NCAA CFB 2003-2004
Sides 124-103 +75.42 UNITS
Teasers/Pleasers/Parlays 1-6 +10.00 UNITS
Total 125-109 +85.42 UNITS

NCAA CFB 2004-2005
Sides 111-109 –18.18 UNITS
Player Props - 62-44 +90.10 UNITS
Teasers/Pleasers/Parlays - 7-9 +4.60 UNITS
Total 173-153 +76.52 UNITS

NCAA CFB 2005-2006
Sides 60-50 +35.26 UNITS
Player Props 40-17 +79.37 UNITS
Total 100-67 +114.63 UNITS

NCAA CFB 2006-2007
Sides 79-54 +100.01 UNITS
Player Props 55-34 +54.35 UNITS
Total 134-88 +154.36 UNITS

NCAA CFB 2007-2008
Sides 9-8 -4.60 UNITS
Player Props 0-0 +0.00
Total 9-8 -4.60 UNITS

Future Plays

Chris Wells OVER 625.5 Rushing Yards (1 UNIT) – 46 yards
Chris Wells OVER 7 TDs (1 UNIT) – 1 TD
Jermichael Finley OVER 4 TDs (1 UNIT) – 0 TD
Jermichael Finley OVER 480 Passing Yards (1 UNIT) – 8 yards
Allen Patrick UNDER 950 Rushing Yards (1 UNIT) – 0 yards
Tim Tebow OVER 9.5 Rushing TDs (1 UNIT) – 1 TD
Quan Cosby UNDER 780 Receiving Yards (1 UNIT) – 29 yards
Malcolm Kelley UNDER 900 Receiving Yards (1 UNIT) – 118 yards

All plays 1-5 units occasional 8 unit super duper GOY mortal lock of century play (like Texas).

NC State @ BC –5 (5 UNITS)

BC is my ACC team that will give VT the best fight for the BCS berth. BC was only 12 points away from an undefeated season last year and return 7 on offense and 10 on defense.

One key I like going into this game is that BC opens with a tough game vs. Wake Forest so that should have them more prepared then an NC State squad that opens vs. a pansy.

Interesting game as BC faces their former coach in Tom O’Brien. New coach Jeff Jagodzinski and the great coaching staff he brought with him is going to make this team more potent on offense because of what he can bring to the run game. Jagodzinski did wonders for the Falcons running game before he went to Green Bay and now gets to work with a potent backfield with L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender.

The ground game was horrible last year to the surprise of many because of the talent and they will definitely be better then 92nd in rushing under Jags. All-ACC QB Matt Ryan returns as do most of his WRs and they should flourish under Jags who will rekindle those great offenses he orchestrated while BC OC in 97 & 98. While OC at BC his offenses both seasons avg. 400 ypg and his OL were the best in the Big East allowing the fewest sacks both years.

The defense will be fine defense under 10-year coordinator Frank Spaziani. They return 10 starters and majority of the reserves. The defense picked off 21 passes last year and should be licking their chops to face NC State QB Daniel Evans who was pretty bad last year completing only 53% of his passes and throwing for only 6 TDs and 11 picks.

NC State’s offense finished 96th overall last year and 101st in scoring. The Wolfpacks only bright spot on offense last year was the play of their OL and now that looks to be the teams weakness as they loss both tackles and its standout guard Leroy Harris. O’Brien’s teams flourish only when the OL has it going and this group looks like a mess and will need some time to gel.

BC with a home night game against NC State wins this one by more then a TD.
 
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Great write-up as always. Been trying to get a read more on Jagodzinski. I forgot about how potent they were 8-10 years ago. Good heads up there. Certianly have to like the play at that number.
 
No matter what anyone says ... this is the game the BC players circled when the schedule came out. love this spot for them too.
 
Nobody seems to agree on the ACC Coastal Division. I know Steele has BC last, and I think CBS has them first; a lot of people like FSU; and I can't think of which magazine, but one of them picked Maryland. BC can definitely get a leg up on the rest of them, with those 3 conference games to start the season. While @GT and @ND will be tough, BC could conceivably be 7-0, coming off of a bye week going into Blacksburg. While the last 5 games are about as brutal as the ACC can get, I think both the O and the D will be improved; plus, they won't be so conservative under Jagodinski. Hopefully the player and assistant defections won't hurt them too much. I think O'Brien might have left a year too early, and he's definitely going to regret implying that BC can't win a conference championship, come Week 2. It's hard enough to understand why some players make stupid comments that fire up the opposition; but how could the former coach make that mistake?
 
If BC had fans that supported the coach then he would have never left. He wanted to go to a school where more players want to play (south vs North) and where the fans are passionate.

BC will be good this year and I think you are on the right side of this game...am still fired up about the coach we got as recruiting has been hot so far this year
 
I have BC as the #2 team to FSU in the Atlantic Division. Not a clear-cut #2 by an stretch of the imagination, but I do think they are the best of the rest. Its disappointing not to see that LB corp with Toal in there cause that group would really be a sight to behold, but they are so stacked at that particular position that it may just free up minutes for another talented player.

In the event that BC eeks one out against Wake or God forbid loses, the line would probably be lower than five, because you can bank on NCSU looking pretty good against UCF. But I suspect BC will win by at least a touchdown and that will keep this line at least where it is now. Probably anywhere from 3.5-7 depending on what transpires in week one.

GL this season Horn.
 
originally posted by Wolfpack17 :
If BC had fans that supported the coach then he would have never left. He wanted to go to a school where more players want to play (south vs North) and where the fans are passionate.


He actually left because academic restrictions hindered his ability to recruit at BC and he felt given the acadamic standards that he would never compete for a national title at that program. At nc state he can recruit any player out of high school. He will make nc state a major contender in the conference in a few years and this is a program on the rise.
 
I'm sure you have seen this, but just wanted to add it in there
BC's Toal could miss 2007 campaign

Posted: Monday July 30, 2007 07:34AM ET

Boston College could be without standout linebacker Brian Toal for the entire upcoming season. Toal's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has taken longer than expected, and he's considering redshirting this fall.
 
GL Horn - nice writeup, agreed BC should be very good offensively. They have a lot to work with.
 
ok you convinced me i was on the fence on this one and wanted to take cal you just justified this pick i think for me. bol
 
I think you're probably on the right side with this pick but the NCSU OL should be better than you're giving it credit for. Yes, we lose the 3 guys you mentioned but we return 7 of our top 10 guys from last year so we have quite a bit of experience...just not necessarily starting experience. BC will definitely be pumped up for this one. It also doesn't help that our stud TE Anthony Hill is now gone for the year with an ACL tear.
 
Miami +9 @ OU (4 UNITS)

Sportsbook GOY line

Miami still has some of the best athletes in the country but now finally might have a head coach that will get the most out of them unlike Larry Coker. The defense that returns 8 won’t miss a beat with Shannon still around. The defense last year despite a horrible offense still kept every team but 3 under 20 points.

The offense though has been the issue the last few years and that is why I expect Miami to surprise some people this year. They have 4 & 5 star talent at damn near every position on offense where they return 10 starters from last year. It make me wonder if it was the system and not the players.

They brought in Jeff Stoutland to coach a very talented but underachieving OL. Shannon also brought in former Auburn QB and GT OC Patrick Nix to improve the offense particularly former #1 HS QB Kyle Wright who’s window is closing fast being it his SR year.

I’ve talked up Miami as much as possible but the real reasoning behind this play is OU always starts slow under Stoops especially now that he has a brand new QB. Yes Paul Thompson was a new QB last year but he did spend his first 2.5 years at OU as a QB and he knew in the summer he would be the #1 QB and took all the snaps.

This season OU will have starting at QB either a JUCO player (Halzle) that put up some pretty awful numbers at his JUCO college, a 4 star true frosh (Nichol), or a RS freshman (Bradford) who wasn’t heralded out of HS. Sooner fans pray Bradford will pull a Colt Mccoy and blow up out of nowhere and he seems the front runner to win the job.

My issue is all three QBs have been splitting the snaps because noone has jumped ahead to take the job and their opening opponent North Texas won’t get the QB ready for what Shannon and the Hurricane defense will throw at them. As of today they still don’t know who the starter is as none of the three QBs have been overly impressive.

The last time this happened with Bomar and Thompson two years ago TCU walked right into Norman and beat them.

This game will be an ugly low scoring game so take the +9.
 
B.A.R. said:
Most do man...best prop player I ever seen and one of the best ATS players too...pretty impresive for a Horn ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks fellas. I feel like a kid before xmas this week. Can't sleep waiting for Thursday kickoff and 3 NFL fantasy drafts.
 
Nebraska –3.5 @ Wake Forest (4 UNITS)

I don’t know if WF record last season was a fluke since they played a ton of close ball games with 5 of their wins coming by a score or less.

What I do know is they won those games off a salty defense that was the best in the ACC and 12th in the country in scoring defense. The defense also ranked 10th in the country in creating turnovers.

The ball control offense returns pretty much everyone from a conservative bunch who only averaged 21.6 ppg. The defense though is what I’m worried about with key losses across the board. They loss LB Jon Abbate early to the NFL who was their main run stuffer and heart and soul of the team.

Jyles Tucker their big time pass rush threat from last season is gone and lose 3 of 4 starters in the secondary including three-year starting safeties Josh Gattis and Patrick Ghee.

For an offense that relies on its defense to create turnovers and bend but not break could face some issues vs Nebraska’s attack led by Sam Keller now. Nebraska returns its entire 2 deep of WRs that all know what to do after the catch.

Callahan’s teams are getting better and better as they learn his system and last year they ranked 14th overall in offense. This is also year 4 for Callahan which means better talent that he recruited then the old regime sees more of the field.

I think Keller will be a stud for the Huskers this year and WF’s new defense will have issues trying to stop the Nebraska WRs and offense even at home.
 
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GL Horn. Love the BC line that you got. I dont know if im going tto play it at 13 but I love your number at 5 and defintly think you should be good there. Usually dont like the rivalry games that cause too much emotions. Who knows what happens. GL this week, ill be checking in often on the thread
 
Huge having that BC line now...

Nebraska as well..

Horn guesses right about 90 percent of the time on these GOY lines..lol
 
just saw this...line will skyrocket now, unless it's taken off

RALEIGH, N.C. -- North Carolina State star running back Toney Baker will miss the rest of the season after injuring a knee against Central Florida.
The junior was hurt Saturday night during the fourth quarter of a 25-23 loss. The school did not specify which knee was injured.
Cartilage damage was discovered Sunday during arthroscopic surgery. It has not been determined when Baker will have reconstructive surgery.
''This is a tough situation for Toney and for our football team,'' coach Tom O'Brien said. ''We wish him the best and will support him through his rehabilitation period.''
Baker was the team's leading rusher last season and has 1,272 yards rushing for his career. The school said he could be eligible for a medical redshirt.
N.C. State travels to Boston College in Week 2 to take on the Eagles.
 
Good stuff Horn I will be looking hard at a 1st half bet on BC, and maybe a 2nd half bet on Nebraska as I think their O-line really starts to grind on teams in the 2nd half. Good luck this week.
 
Wow Horn...just a tremendous early play there for you. Incredible value! Nice work as always!
 
The current record is a little misleading since I went 4-0 in the imaginary match-ups and 5-8 on regular sides losing about 20 units (16 on fuckin Texas game and 1H). I got so pumped for this weekend that I lost damn near every game I added that I shouldn’t have but I wanted action.

I definitely read Texas wrong as did everyone else and lost big for it. Some of my early GOY lines were huge in guessing right for this week.

Oregon St. –3.5 @ Cincy (4 UNITS)

Just like the Utah game last week I think Oregon St. just has too much firepower to lose to a lesser conference foe. Everyone wants to talk about the offense and running attack led by Bernard but that Beaver defense is downright nasty.

OSU held Utah to only 196 total yards and pressured the QB all day with 5 sacks. Yes I know the Utes had some injuries but I see the same kind of results here in this matchup with a team that returned pretty much everyone from a 10 win team the prior year.

MTNST. @ Louisville –39 (3 UNITS)

Louisville won this matchup last year 44-17 in Nashville and now gets the Blue Raiders at home where they have the second longest winning streak in the nation behind only USC.

Steve Kragthorpe put on a show last week for the Louisville crowd making sure the fans knew the offense was still in good hands even though Petrino bolted to the NFL.

Now he gets a national game to impress the voters as well, which is why I don’t mind laying another large number after last week’s big boys failed to cover larger spreads.

The Blue Raiders lost 27-14 last week to FAU and couldn’t do anything on offense. QB Joe Craddock in his first start was harassed all night as soon as FAU knew they could run the ball (Blue Raiders had 18 rushing yards on the night). Craddock was sacked 4 times and they turned the ball over four times as well.

If the Blue Raiders were out gained 217 yards to 417 by FAU what do you think Louisville might do here?

West Virginia –24 @ Marshall (5 UNITS)

Marshall lost to Miami 31-3 last week due to a bad offense that kept giving the Canes great field position. The one stat that sticks out to me in this game is Miami only had to attempt 9 passes all game long and ran it down Marshall’s throat for 260 yards on 40 attempts.

I can only imagine what White & Slaton are going to do.

Rice @ Baylor –6 (3 UNITS)

Rice pulled a Michigan and lost to FBC opponent Nicholls St. while TCU blasted Baylor. I really don’t want to dive to deep into this matchup because I can’t believe I’m betting on such a shitty game.

If Baylor can’t beat Rice at home they should turn in their Big 12 card or stick to women’s basketball.

BYU @ UCLA –7 (4 UNITS)

UCLA is going to be a very dangerous team this year if Olsen & Bell play like they did last week vs Stanford. I know it was Stanford but Olsen threw 5 TD passes and spread the ball around hitting 9 different receivers while Bell who missed most of last season as well rushed for 195 yards.

UCLA didn’t score more then 31 points all last season as their defense led them. They scored 31 points in the second half vs Stanford.

While I do like BYU this year I think the 7 is too low against a UCLA team that has won 12 of its last 13 at home.

TCU +9.5 @ Texas (2 UNITS)

I made this a monster play when it first opened but did hedge it off a bit because I just don’t know how Texas will react after one of the worst performances in the Mack Brown era. Plus TCU looks like they will be without their best player on both offense and defense as rumors are flying that both DE Blake and RB Brown will not play in this game. Those are huge losses if they are going to pull the upset.

You can almost flip a coin to decide who will win this game but I do think it’ll be very low scoring so I’m going to go with TCU and the points.

South Florida @ Auburn –6.5 (3 UNITS)

South Florida seems to be everyone’s sleeper pick to surprise folks this year and maybe they were looking ahead to this game after a woeful performance last week vs FBC opponent Elon in their 28-13 win.

While Auburn has some issues with its OL they still have a fast nasty defense that South Florida will not be able to handle.

This will probably be another ugly game for Auburn like last week but only having to give less then a TD? I’ll take it.

Missouri –6 @ Ole Miss (5 UNITS)

Missouri scared the crap out of me last week but the Illini impressed me in their comeback with some of the young offensive weapons they had.

Ole Miss doesn’t have that type of firepower on offense and will not be able to keep up with one of the better offenses in the country.

Even though they won last week vs Memphis they were out gained 467 to 275 including giving up 343 passing yards and a whopping 30 first downs.

Chase Daniels is about to have a field day vs this defense.

S.Miss @ Tennessee –10 (-120) (4 UNITS)

Cal lit the UT defense up last week but I also believe Cal is going to be doing that to a lot of teams this year with the talent they have on offense. Ainge and the no-huddle offense was almost just as explosive as he hit 14 of his first 15 passes 32-47 for 271 yards, 3 TDs, and no picks.

S.Miss doesn’t have the talent on offense like Cal to keep up and Fulmer knows damn well he better impress in front of the home crowd especially with Florida up next.
 
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Recap of plays

Thursday

Oregon St. –3.5 @ Cincy (4 UNITS)
MTNST. @ Louisville –39 (3 UNITS)

Saturday

West Virginia –24 @ Marshall (5 UNITS)
Rice @ Baylor –6 (3 UNITS)
BYU @ UCLA –7 (4 UNITS)
TCU +9.5 @ Texas (2 UNITS)
South Florida @ Auburn –6.5 (3 UNITS)
Missouri –6 @ Ole Miss (5 UNITS)
S.Miss @ Tennessee –10 (-120) (4 UNITS)
NC Sate @ BC –5 (5 UNITS)
Miami +9 @ OU (4 UNITS)
Nebraska –3.5 @ WF (4 UNITS)
Hawaii -28 @ La Tech (5 UNITS)
Alabama -3 (-125) @ Vanderbilt (3 UNITS)
ND @ Penn St. -17 (5 UNITS)
 
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