NCAA week 4 plays

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Oklahoma -20 at -110 for 2 units

PSU -3 at -105 for 2 units

Florida -21 at -110 for 1 unit

USC -24 at -110 for 1 unit

CAL -16 at -110 for 1 unit

write ups to come during the week.

GL all.
 
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I put my thoughts on the nd-mich game in craftsy21 thread about the notre dame-mich game, i agree with your penn state, i am trying to get more info about pennstate and their team, after watching the past mich game, I may make a large play on penn state, I know its the big 10 and anything can happen, so trying to get more info about penn state.

any thoughts about their team would be great?
 
HUNT - Why the hell is the Penn St line dropping? About to jump on the Nittany Lions with you, but...this movement is puzzling.
 
Cash, saw your thoughts on UM..I agree bro. I would take this up to 6 or 7.

Aztec, Michigan has a huge alumni following and homers everywere....UM has gotten love from the books for years and will continue to do so. I truly belive this line is a gift...UM is that bad. Mallett only threw 13 times last week against a shitty defense...If Carr wasn't such an idiot he would have gotten more passing plays in for Mallett when they were kicking ND's ass so he would be prepared for this week becasue he will have to throw the ball.

I don't expect a freshman qb who has thrown 30 passes in his college career to beat a seasoned PSU defense.
 
I wanted to add...I'm tailing RJ on CAL...RJ knows his shit in case some of you haven't noticed.
 
Thanks for the feedback on the Penn St/Michigan line! :cheers:

Arizona @ Cal -16 also caught my eye, but I can't lay 16 with that defense. Tuitama has looked good the last two weeks (albeit his competition has been "bleh"). I do like RJ's take on this being a big revenge game for the Golden Bears, but...they have struggled somewhat against the pass, not to mention their defense has given up an average of 24 points/game thus far. Including their horrific first game against BYU, the Wildcats have averaged 23 points/game, while putting up 45 against Northern Arizona and 27 to New Mexico in their most recent contests.

Thus far, with the exception of Louisiana Tech, Cal has played to the level of their competition. And, even though this is a revenge game, Cal could still be looking ahead to a much bigger and better opponent (Oregon), who they have to face on the road next week.

Just some food for thought bro. GL as always!
 
Hunt...On Oky with you as well as UF. I think both teams should roll pretty good. I love seeing you on PSU, I am just waiting for this line to drop some. As far as the two PAC10 games go, after BYU-Arizona, I vowed to myself I would not touch an Arizona game the rest of the yr. I think USC can cover this spread whenever they want, the good thing about this yr is that with Oky, UF, LSU all dominating their opponents early, it is important to start blowing your competition out. GL
 
Mac, you talking me out of this one bro? lol..I agree with your points, I jsut think CAL is too much for AZ, too much firepower on O and the return game is ridiculous...it's another added dimension. I hope they don't take anyone lightly in the PAC 10 or I don't get the cover.

ETG, I have no idea what that PSU/UM line does....I would think it rises, I am surprised it hasn't moved much in PSU's favor honestly...I will ride these top 5 teams all year, they are all way above their competition imo. I don't fuck with Steve SPurrier getting almost 17 tho ;)
 
I liked Cal intially and agreed with RJ

What I don't like...and this is the thoughts of an unnamed poster...

1.) Three defensive injuries for Cal
2.) The defense in general
3.) Next week is basically a Pac 10 elimination game
 
Thanks for the feedback on the Penn St/Michigan line! :cheers:

Arizona @ Cal -16 also caught my eye, but I can't lay 16 with that defense. Tuitama has looked good the last two weeks (albeit his competition has been "bleh"). I do like RJ's take on this being a big revenge game for the Golden Bears, but...they have struggled somewhat against the pass, not to mention their defense has given up an average of 24 points/game thus far. Including their horrific first game against BYU, the Wildcats have averaged 23 points/game, while putting up 45 against Northern Arizona and 27 to New Mexico in their most recent contests.

Thus far, with the exception of Louisiana Tech, Cal has played to the level of their competition. And, even though this is a revenge game, Cal could still be looking ahead to a much bigger and better opponent (Oregon), who they have to face on the road next week.

Just some food for thought bro. GL as always!

OK, I'll weigh in as I'm either going to get blame or nothing (don't we all never get credit when people tail your plays ;) ).

I looked ahead to check on Cal's schedule before I made this play. Yes, a big road trip to Oregon is on deck that will have big implications on the Pac-10 and probably the BCS at large pick. But...and you have to put yourself in Cal's shoes...Arizona did more harm and pain to Cal last year than either USC or Tennessee. USC is always a tough game and it wasn't surprising that Cal lost again. Tennessee embarrassed Cal. But Zona did oh so much worse.

Zona shocked Cal. Zona killed Cal. Zona destroyed Cal's 50+ year old dream of getting back to the Rose Bowl and winning the Pac-10.

The Rose Bowl is Cal's dream. It's their fans' dream. It's the next step in their progress. Sure they want to play in the MNC, but they realize they also need to get into the BCS or Rose Bowl before the MNC. And Zona took all that away last year...in a game Cal should have won.

Ok, let's take a look at this year. Zona has scored 3 (BYU), 45 (D-1AA NAU), and 27 (UNM); Zona has also allowed 20 (BYU), 24, (NAU), and 29 (UNM). None of these teams are in Cal's caliber and none have the revenge factor (except BYU--which also covered their number).

Zona has put up more than 200 yards passing its' first two games (223 and 295) before putting up over 400 yards against UNM--in a losing effort.

At the same time, Cal has put up 45 (Tenn), 34 (CSU), and 42 (La Tech), with margins of victory of 14, 6 (14 late 4th quarter points got the moose), and 20. Cal has averaged about 440 yards ppg of offense and 230 yards of rushing offense pg.

Also, Cal is 9-3 ATS against Zona since 1993.

Cal dominates and wins big at home.
 
Ok, let's hear it from a Cal blogger how the team is doing.

BTW, and to underscore my point about how much the Rose Bowl means to Cal and to its' fans, the name of the site is rbbid.blogspot.com.

What does "rrbid" stand for?

Rose Bowl Before I Die.

She's a Monet....



Beautiful from afar, but far from beautiful. That little bit of pop culture perfectly sums up the Bear's thirty point win over louisiana tech last Saturday. Luckily for the Bears, most of the country will only look at the win from afar (as evidenced by the jump in the AP polls to 6th). Because the game was televised on such a bootleg channel, hardly anyone got to see how disconcerting this "blow out" really was.

(The game recap that I wrote up got deleted by mistake...and honestly, the game wasn't interesting enough to do a re-write of the full game recap, sorry...on w/ my thoughts on the game & the Bears...)

Defense

The honor of getting mentioned first goes to the defense this week. It looks like the D is continuing to come together, and despite the rash of injuries, the defense did a good job this weekend. However, tackling still remains a major concern for the defense. The old bend but don't break came through again, but continually letting guys break tackles is the best way to ensure that bend leads to break in the future.

Anthony Felder led the team in tackles again this week, but there were also good performances across the board. Ezeff was a tackling machine, DeCoud had 6 solo's and was robbed of a forced fumble, Hampton and Peele had big int's, and the defense tallied 4 sacks on the day. The only downside of the defense's effort (aside from the tackling issues) are the injuries that we sustained on the D Line. Starters Matt Malele and Rulon Davis both went out with foot injuries; at this time Davis's injury looks to be the most serious. Luckily the backups did a pretty good job, but the last thing that the defense can afford right now is a hit to its depth and continuity. As far as I know, LB Zack Follet's injury was just a stinger and shouldn't cause him to miss any time.

I know that la tech isn't exactly a prolific passing team, and yes, we have given up a ton of passing yards in the previous two games...but I'm really starting to like the identity that our secondary is forming. Ezeff seems to be everywhere on the field. Syd'Quan Thompson continues to improve, and by the time he graduates I wouldn't be surprised to hear his name mentioned in the same breath with other Cal corners like Powell, Hughes, and Asomugha. Thomas DeCoud's big hitting reminds me of Donnie McCleskey (yes, I'm aware that they play different safety positions, but big hits are big hits). And Hampton's experience gives me (and obviously the coaches) confidence in his ability to hold down the other corner.

Special Teams

I missed the opening kickoff by one stinking red light, but I did catch it on the radio and on the replays. It seems like it's just been a matter of time before Hawkins finally took one to the house, and hopefully it's just the first of many. Superman backup kicker finally stumbled, but hey, he came through huge against tennessee and colorado state so he deserves a pass. DeSean definitely looks like he's pressing, and it nearly cost the Bears when he coughed one up on a punt return. I know that the guy is banged up and that he probably doesn't have another year to make a heisman run (since he'll probably leave after this year) but I'm worried that DeSean's need to make College Football Final is going to screw us badly in an important game. That being said, I trust that Tedford knows how to manage his players, and that he won't let things get out of hand.

Offense

Well, I hate to say I told you so...but, yeah, you know. Run Forsett Run. I am a big believer in the running game, and I would be even if we had a defense like the baltimore ravens or a quarterback playing like Tom Brady is right now. But the fact of the matter is, we don't have either of those things, so let's just run run run our opponents off the field (see usc's performance against the cornheads). I've been hearing/reading some disturbing things about fans wanting Jahvid to be the starter...thank goodness Tedford's making the choices and not the fans. Jahvid's got incredible talent...I'm excited as hell every time I see number 4 line up on offense...but this team is a legitimate contender for the Rose Bowl and an outside contender for a freakin national championship. There's no way that the burden of those expectations should be placed on the shoulders of a true freshman; especially not when there's a seasoned veteran who had almost a 1000 yards as a backup in 2005, and averages just under 7 yards a carry for his career. Calm down people!

As far as the passing game goes, I've still got faith that Nate will get it together. Hawkins has come a loooooooong way since his first year where he was continually in Tedford's doghouse. He's clearly the most complete reciever we've got, and he's shown it on the field every game. Big TE Craig Stevens finally got in the mix this year with his first TD catch, Cameron Morrah has shown that he's also a threat in the passing game, and Robert Jordan is an excellent third receiver.

DeSean is the man. Anyone who's ever read this blog knows how much we think of this guy's talent. But for the second week in a row he had some drops, looked like he was having trouble holding onto the balls he did catch, and he fumbled again. The drops partly get put on Longshore, but the real #1 brings in those balls. DeSean, to me, is kind of like Barry Sanders in that I don't mind when he tries to make plays that other people shouldn't make because I know he can break one at any time...but unlike Barry, DeSean's starting to develop a habit of fumbling. I can't believe that I'm saying it, but I think the time has come for Tedford to give tha chosen 1 a little time on the bench. First, it'll send a good message to the rest of the team, just like when Tedford benched Arrington and Lynch in the past. Second, and this is the most important point, I think DeSean's thumb is too gimpy for him to play the way he's capable of playing. It's great that he's playing through the pain, but best case, he costs himself the heisman, worst case, he costs us our shot at a BCS game. I say, sit him against Arizona and let his thumb heal up. Oh wow, I can't believe I really think that...

Bottom line for the passing game is that we're beyond freaking loaded at the receiver positions, and our O-line is real real solid as usual. Our running backs are consistently gaining 200+ yards per game, so there's no need for the passing game to feel any pressure. All that remains to be seen is whether or not Tedford can work his magic on the inconsistent Longshore...smart money says he can and will.
 
I always like games with a lot of chalk, so I can't say anything about the big favorites. But PSU looks like a tossup to me. Michigan didn't start the year at #5 just because they have a lot of fans. They finally won last week against a shitty team, but I think that they can take the game to PSU. GL on all your picks.
 
thanks fellas..appreciate it.

Adding:

Oklahoma -13.5 at -125 first half for 2 unit

Oklahoma is SERIOUS, and they will show why Friday in every facet of the game.
 
Hunt,
Liking the OK 1st half play, nit sure about FLA, The state of Mississippi has not been good to the gators historically, plus an early game and alot of new starters that have never traveled before, i am staying away, but I'll be pulling for you cause I want them Gators undefeated when they hit the BAYOU in 2 weeks. BOL, Knock em dead-
 
thanks tigator..appreciate it...I just think UF is a different animal on offense..hope I'm right.

u know it BAR

jump...sorry bro, got school like crazy..I will tomorrow and friday tho...

I don't mind laying chalk with the best teams in the country..hope it pays off.
 
Always nice going into Saturday already up on the book.

Now come on Gators!!!!!!!!!

Also on USC and CAL


Looking Good Hunt !




:cheers:
 
:tiphat:
Too easy on Oklahoma. Nice to have a game pegged that correctly. sets up for a nice weekend for you. Best of luck today huntdog !
:cheers::cheers::cheers:
 
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