Ncaa Prop shop week 9

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Let’s jump right into it.


Ott (cal rb) ov 74.5 rush yards

Love this one, 1st and foremost should be a whole bunch of plays in this game. When Cal plays the faster paced teams we see lots of plays and higher scores. Usc has shown no ability to stop good backs, lot of ppl I respect like cal here and I think their path to victory is Ott running the ball 20+ times, I think he could seriously double this number as usc has not shown the ability to get physical at the point of attack. I actually think this a great spot for some alt numbers if you think Cal can stay in this game! 100+ Is +245 amd 120+ a hefty +550 I love that!!!
 
Think this finally gonna be the week I might have to play some unders and we just have to see how it goes as I see some nice value in a few unders. When I do play a under it will be smaller as im just not as comfy with those and gonna tread lightly. Not ready to fire at them yet but will post a few as I play them 2narro.
 
So kinda debating this one, only cause it a pretty high number. Havnt played this one yet but a strong lean.

Carson Steele ov 98.5 rush yards

Let’s face it here, this dude should get 25ish carry’s here. The game script should be perfect for bruins to really lean on this Buffs d. Steele is as big as most the buffs defenders, I could see ucla getting out to a lead here and just dropping the hammer w steele getting one run after another just dragging buffs defenders down the field! Since the bye he has been getting 20+ carry’s a game, I see no reason this doesn’t continue here and if he gets 20+ carry’s I think he could go for 150 agsinst a poor tacking and undersized buffs d!!
 
Few the under leans.

Okie st rb Gordon un 104.5 rush
Uk rb Davis un 90.5 rush

Cincy still has a very good front 7, the way to beat them is not running the ball as they only allow 3.1 per carry and less than 100 total per game on the ground. This a really big number, I think they can keep Gordon under this and have a shot at the upset.

I just think vols the better team and don’t think game script will be favorable for uk to be able to continue tryikh to run between the tackes against another solid run d that only allows a tick over 3 ypc. Between the 2 it tough to say. Think game script be more favorable here as I’m more confident vols have a several score lead that could limit uk ability to stick w the run. That said Davis scares me more than Gordon and cincy is just a much easier team to throw on. Of course Gordon has been putting up mister rush numbers so it will be a challenge but I expect cincy will make it priority number 1 to take him out the game., Again I hate unders but gun to head I lean both these.
 
Debating milton over rush yards. His number only 23.5 so not worried bout taking a sack or 2. 3 of his last 4 games he has smashed this number, last 2 against way better defenses than what uk offers.
 
Gtech qb king over passing yards another consideration. Game script should be very favorable here as I expect they down and throwing, I think he can get 250+ as long as unc run game doesn’t eat up the entire clock. Then in same game it very tempting to keep playing Tez walker even with the 100ish rec yards number, he making up for lost time and don’t see anyone stopping him. The issue is heels could run for 200+ here and not need to throw a lot.
 
I like the Sooners team total over 38.5. Think that might be better than trying to figure out a individual prop for them today as I think they will do whatever they want on ku d!!! Lean to nic anderson ov 51.5 rec if I was to play 1 guy but they have 3 wrs who could go off plus I expect they very effective running the ball in this one!
 
KJ said:
You get props in shit games?

Frank Gore Jr should feast today
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50-50,, so weird. Sometimes they will have like 1-2 players, sometimes none. Sometimes bunch for one team and not the other. Lol. I’ll check.
 
2daBank said:
Gtech qb king over passing yards another consideration. Game script should be very favorable here as I expect they down and throwing, I think he can get 250+ as long as unc run game doesn’t eat up the entire clock. Then in same game it very tempting to keep playing Tez walker even with the 100ish rec yards number, he making up for lost time and don’t see anyone stopping him. The issue is heels could run for 200+ here and not need to throw a lot.
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Good luck this week I did not have time to look at anything other than a couple of initial leans.

Walker may get 100, but based on Mack Brown's comments he said it was a mistake not to run more last week so I assume they will this week. If I can find Hampton under 100 yards, I will play it.
 
I think we in for a sneaky potential shootout in Waco today. Neither these teams are particularly good at running the ball, granted isu much better than baylor who is awful in this area. However I think both teams have underrated passing games. When Shapen has been healthy he has put up huge passing numbers! 293 or more in every game he has started, isu has pretty gaudy pass d numbers but let’s be honest, they have played against a bunch of teams w rather crappy pass offenses, isu does not get to the qb, if you give Shapen time he will find the holes in a defense and his total is only 247.5 here!!

On the other side I think Bect has shown improvement all season as a passer and baylor pass d allows over 8 yards per attempt and they havnt exactly played a who’s who of passing offenses either. Next has a incredibly generous number of only 207.5. It possible isu run game is good here which could limit his chances but I think baylor passing game capable of pushing isu to throw as well.
 
He Hate Me said:
Good luck this week I did not have time to look at anything other than a couple of initial leans.

Walker may get 100, but based on Mack Brown's comments he said it was a mistake not to run more last week so I assume they will this week. If I can find Hampton under 100 yards, I will play it.
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I think that one will come down to game script. Not sure what im gomma do on that one yet. Gtech has gotten out fast on a few teams, if unc tries to establish run early and tech can hit them in the passing game where we have a tight game or Gtech even leading at half then I have no doubt Maye/tez would light Gtech up in 2nd half as Gtech has allowed damn near everyone to pass all over them in 2md half of games. I like quite a few others this week and still working on this one. Night game so lots of time to dig more in here and see if I can get a good feel for how I think it plays out.
 
2daBank said:
I think we in for a sneaky potential shootout in Waco today. Neither these teams are particularly good at running the ball, granted isu much better than baylor who is awful in this area. However I think both teams have underrated passing games. When Shapen has been healthy he has put up huge passing numbers! 293 or more in every game he has started, isu has pretty gaudy pass d numbers but let’s be honest, they have played against a bunch of teams w rather crappy pass offenses, isu does not get to the qb, if you give Shapen time he will find the holes in a defense and his total is only 247.5 here!!

On the other side I think Bect has shown improvement all season as a passer and baylor pass d allows over 8 yards per attempt and they havnt exactly played a who’s who of passing offenses either. Next has a incredibly generous number of only 207.5. It possible isu run game is good here which could limit his chances but I think baylor passing game capable of pushing isu to throw as well.
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So scratch this one, fucking flash flood warnings till 2marro with chances of “torrential downpours”! My hour to hour weather was showing starting at 3-4 but now it shows later, I really like the passing games on both sides here but damn sure not if we get 5 inches of rain during the fucking game!! I guess maybe we wait and see what it looks like and forecast says closer to game time before totally forgetting bout cause man I see passing yards here! For now we just put it on back burner. Maybe we get lucky and numbers get bet down and then rain holds off? Never know but not gonna risk making a play with that kinda rain which could be more than strong enough to totally take away the pass.
 
2daBank said:
I like the Sooners team total over 38.5. Think that might be better than trying to figure out a individual prop for them today as I think they will do whatever they want on ku d!!! Lean to nic anderson ov 51.5 rec if I was to play 1 guy but they have 3 wrs who could go off plus I expect they very effective running the ball in this one!
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GREAT play
 
Coleman (fsu) 80+ rec yards +165

I thought bout going 100+ but why be greedy! Lol. Wake has beaten fsu a bunch of times in a row so I can’t imagine noles take them lightly here. Nobody on wake can stop this dude, Wilson left last week (again) so not sure If he plays? Coleman should have big game, if noles come out strong he gets this by halftime!
 
He was freaking 51,5 but kept going up wken I tried to bet. He got his 1st start last week replacing a injured guy who out again today, played 78% of snaps, this kid is Uber talented, if he on field that much he bound to hit a big play.
 
DapperDan said:
Good posts bud - loving the prop action too. Ott should get big numbers against usc’s 84 ranked rush defense and 100 in tackling according to pff
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I already hit his ov 74.5 pretty hard but gonna get me some fat plus money alt numbers on him also! Prob play 90+, 100+, 120+
 
Well the one thing that worried me bout Sooners seems to be a issue early. They not liking the chilly temps. This football weather yoi pussies!!
 
DapperDan said:
deions kid under 316.5 yards passing? This is 9th ranked in coverage in pff and 35th in tackling
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I played steele over 98.5 rush +105. Kinda go hand and hand. I expect bruins to get lead and drop the hammer w this kid. I just don’t like playing under props, I swear, my under leans typically good but the minute I play one dudes goes over in 3 plays! Lol. I been a under totals better my whole life, guess this my chance to be square. So many choices if I don’t like over I just move on!! Kicked myself for weeks not playing Milroe under rush, they were setting him in the 40s and he was going -20/-30 or more every week! Dude runs backwards on his sacks! Lol

I was very interested in Sooners running back under 104.5 today vs Cincy solid run d but just passed, lol
 
If Fucking Gabriel was apparently to big a pussy to throw in 40 degree weather I woulda hit monster parlay. Sorry little bitch, I don’t recall him ever even attempting a pass over 10 yards!! 40s little wet is great football weather!! Man I can’t believe he couldn’t throw in that!!!!! Didn’t even try!!!
 
2daBank said:
So kinda debating this one, only cause it a pretty high number. Havnt played this one yet but a strong lean.

Carson Steele ov 98.5 rush yards

Let’s face it here, this dude should get 25ish carry’s here. The game script should be perfect for bruins to really lean on this Buffs d. Steele is as big as most the buffs defenders, I could see ucla getting out to a lead here and just dropping the hammer w steele getting one run after another just dragging buffs defenders down the field! Since the bye he has been getting 20+ carry’s a game, I see no reason this doesn’t continue here and if he gets 20+ carry’s I think he could go for 150 agsinst a poor tacking and undersized buffs d!!
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I went ahead and grabbed this, +105 I couldn’t resist! Only real issue is silly Ott was 24 yards lower than him but I think he goes well over 100 on Buffs, if they get him into the second level he will be running guys over!! I gotta assume ucla will do what they often do against these high flying offenses and totally control the game. No better way than handing this beast the ball 25+ times!! Think he goes for 120ish and a couple tds.
 
Milton (vols) ov 21.5 rush yards

Think they gonna need him to pull a few times and get to the edge to loosen up the interior of uk d. Don’t think he will take many sacks here as I expect vols run game to wear down the uk front.,
 
King (Gtech) ov 233.5 pass yards

I think these guys can hang in this game, to do so king gonna have to have a good passing day, unc pretty stout against the run but all the better qb’s they have faced have been able to get them thru the air. I think king and this tech passing game fits the bill. Tough to play heels props cause I expect they will want to establish the run. Their main rb just to rich for my blood since they have so many options. Plus I think there a world tech can get a early lead then it would turn into the Maye to Tez show. Wouldn’t fault anyone for playing Tez walker ov 100 rec yards, he could hit that a bunch of ways, off play action he goes for 70+ on one play! If the run game isn’t working or if tech gets a 1st half lead teams have carved them in 2nd thru the air, lot of ways Tez can go for 100+ amd don’t think tech has any corners who can deal with him!! I might go ahead and play Tez for a half unit also.
 
B.A.R. said:
Get after it King.

Loved the Ott play.

Never in my life thought that was a 3:30 game, dozed for a bit.

Great call.
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I dozed thru all the night games, lol. Looks like mostly pretty good. I knew I wasn’t thrilled w the 98 on Steele but why in the world did he only get 11 Carry’s when he was going for almost 7 per? The way it looks like that game went sure seems like he shoulda had 20+ And prob gotten over 100 pretty easy. Kinda confused by that one, gonna have to read a update or catch replay there cause everything points to a game he shoulda gotten more touches. At least milton and king both hit. Yea that Ott play was just one them rare ones you know cashing long as dude don’t get hurt!! plenty I hit before half but hitting his +550
Alt number before half don’t happen that often! Safe to say that was a pretty goofy number! Lol .
 
No clue why Harfen got 20 carry’s even tho he only averaged 3.9 and way less you take out his 23 yard long. Makes no sense, sure seems like shoulda been reversed and steele got 20 and harden only 11, did he get banged up? That one annoys me! I tend to dwell on the losses more than the wins, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I dozed thru all the night games, lol. Looks like mostly pretty good. I knew I wasn’t thrilled w the 98 on Steele but why in the world did he only get 11 Carry’s when he was going for almost 7 per? The way it looks like that game went sure seems like he shoulda had 20+ And prob gotten over 100 pretty easy. Kinda confused by that one, gonna have to read a update or catch replay there cause everything points to a game he shoulda gotten more touches. At least milton and king both hit. Yea that Ott play was just one them rare ones you know cashing long as dude don’t get hurt!! plenty I hit before half but hitting his +550
Alt number before half don’t happen that often! Safe to say that was a pretty goofy number! Lol .
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lost two fumbles
 
survive&advance said:
lost two fumbles
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Ah. Ain’t that a bitch, I sure the hell couldn’t figure out why he would only have 11 touches compared to 20 for the other back when his numbers were much better, in a game that looks like pretty much went perfectly for him to really control it. Guess I’ll stop cussing out chip Kelly now, lol. What a prick, he shoulda been running over that buff d all night.

1st freaking Gabriel couldn’t handle a little bit of chilly weather then this prick putting ball on the ground, both that ou team total and steele rushing prop cost me really fat paying parlays. Hate when I have a pretty good day but left feeling like I shoulda made way more money!! Lol.
 
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