NCAA Football Analysis and Discussion thread for Saturday, September 23rd

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well fellas, Week 3 was one to remember for many of us. I know myself and Huntdog had a game circled for 6 months and it came to fruition Saturday in South Bend. When you cover a spread by 34 points then I guess it qualifies as a Game of The Year. Very happy about a lot of others ones. Stayed with gut on Clemson. The other huge bet UL won easily. Lots of help from cappers here on Nevada, Okie State and Navy. Getting the early line with Nebraska worked out nice and the pup in Knoxville was barking just enough.

I can say that the last two weeks have been the best run I have had in successive weeks in my CFB handicapping life. I honestly have put a lot of hard work into this year and most of all its the people of THIS FORUM that truly have helped myself and others have successful years so far.

Here's the records:

Last Week: 16-3-1 +17.67
Week 2: 11-4-0 +6.74
Week 1: 12-17-1 (-2.20)

Overall: 39-24-2 +22.21

Pretty happy hitting 60 percent. Mind you, I put all plays in there even quarter unit ML's...its a great start. Bottom line..a lot of great starts around here.

I have always said that September is the easiest time for college football other than Bowls. Well, we are slowly winding down the month and getting more into conference play. This means the cards get shorter for myself and the games get tougher.

I am treading light this week. The following plays are in for now but could be hedged at some point on a couple of them. Have a halftime line I will hammer as well when available.

Don't force anything this week. I think this is just an average board at best.

Louisville -11.5 -104
Wazzou -10 -109
Indiana -2.5 -105
WVU -20 +100
WMU -27 -105
Houston -3 +114 (2 units)
WVU -13 -105 1H (2 units)
LSU -20.5 -116 1H
Arizona +21.5 -106 (2 units)
Hawaii +14.5 -112 (2 units)
Iowa State +24.5 +103
Iowa -21 -101
Temple +30 -101
MSU +3 -111
MSU ML +135 .(50 units)

I will discuss more prolly later tonight. I will most likely ad a few during week and most likely omit one or two if need be.

:cheers:
 
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Im liking Indiana playa but last week is a little dissapointing
 
awesome run last few weeks BAR...

I do like your plays but haven't pulled the trigger on any except WVU, thanks for talking with me about that one.
 
I noticed that too....I am not a big fan of USC this year but Arizona is pretty effin horrible.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I noticed that too....I am not a big fan of USC this year but Arizona is pretty effin horrible.

Why not?? They will only get better bro. They were missing 3 starters on D and still shut down Nebraska. Their offense isnt as explosive but its a ton deeper imo. And JDB will be a better pro qb than leinart :shake:
 
en fuego, BAR:bow:


got-damned, did i miss the boat on that USC line. but i'm still gonna take them...AZ is that bad.
 
Houston Vs Oklahoma St.

Alright, I had this play targeted as the lines came out and thought it would be closer to a pk but the line indicates to me the respect the linesmakers are giving the Cougars. I can live with that.

First, lets summarize each teams season so far.

Oklahoma State has played three patsies so far. The list of Missouri St, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State isn't too intimidating. Of course they have won each game easily and sport a 3-0 record leading into this matchup. The quarterback play is still iffy at best for OK St. Reid has been less than spectacular against three mop up teams. He did have 4 TD's against Mizzou st but was just 8-17 passing in the game. He also threw 3 picks in the Arky St game. Thats not a good sign IMO. The Cowboys have pretty much run the ball the first three weeks. The unsteady QB play combined with weak opponents has led to some nice rushing totals for Okie. Games of 179,284, and 245 have resulted. The 179 was against ASU, the best of the first three teams they have played.

Houston has also started out 3-0 this season. Week one was the Rice debacle for many. Its a game they committed a lot of penalties and got bum-rushed in second quarter to tune of 27 points. The defense played solid the rest of the game. Once they were up 14-0 they seemed to relax a bit. They were lucky they got their composure back at halftime and rallied. The Cougars totally dominated Tulane in Week 2. Nearly 20 more FD's and over 600 yards of offense. The game was over before it started. Week 3 brought Grambling State in to town. Another efficient win for the Cougars. Kold has been particulary good the past few weeks. He has connected on 57 of his last 67 passes. The kid is in fine form as they head into big matchups the next few weeks.

One thing I really looked at going into this game was the Houston rush defense. I know going into the year they have 9 back on defense and the key is...2ND year in the 3-4. Last year was an adjustment period as it would be with any team. This year, the dividends are starting to show. Rice rushed for 150 but had to utilize 30 carries for that. In college, thats just an average day IMO. Tulane was shut down to 23-55 while GSU had 35-91. Forte is a solid back for Tulane. Thats a nice job by Houston defense. Obviously, UH was up big in these games but they also coulda let up on some of those carries w/big leads but did not. I think you will see improvement from Cougar defense all season long.

Yes, Houston is heading to Miami(FL) next week. I realize that the lookahead is possible. I also realize that beating a Big 12 opponent at home is huge for this program. They do not want to let this golden opportunity pass before going on road in a most likely losing situation against an angry club. I think that Houston gets out early and forces OkSt into more of a passing theme. This is bad news for Reid as he is not that good IMO. As long as Houston contains run they should win this rather easIly IMO.

Houston 30-17
 
Louisville Vs KState

Gonna make this one pretty short and simple.

One, this is an excellent play at the I GOT EARLY. This is now up to 13 and continuing to rise. I wouldn't play over 14 at all. I honestly prolly wouldn't have played if I didn't get the early number at Pinnacle.

Two, UL is a system that just works. People need to quit harping on the Big 2 in the Big East. These teams can play with anyone. I know a lot of people bet on Miami last week up at Pizza Palace just because they 'were Miami'. Or I also saw..'Miami getting points??' Thats not handicapping. Thats ASSumptions. This UL team just sytematically gets the job done. The backups at skill positions are just fine and they should be able to handle a very weak KSU team this season.

Lastly, if this game was a bit more down the line this year I wouldn't be suprised if it fell into 'trap' category. Those type of games tend to pop up more come October. The first 4 weeks are usually BS free for most part. Maybe Kstate will seize the opportunity w/o Brohm in there. Will they? I doubt it. I just don't think that KST offense can keep up. They just are not good enough and UL should coast come fourth quarter.

UL 33-16
 
West Virginia vs East Carolina

Alright, the Mountaineer train keeps rolling. They almost blew the cover the other night as they seemed to get bored in second half. This team just makes plays. They are not great on defesne but they make plays. On offense, its no contest against Slaton and White.

Mind you, I will play First half for 2 units when it comes out. Thats the best play in this game. I also think they cover game spread but as last week showed I almost got moosed by some garbage scores by Maryland late. This team explodes outta the gate. The 2 road games with Slaton and White at top form last year they won by combined 66-13.

Last years matchup doesn't count IMO. Slaton and White had not really played much yet and WVU had basically no offensive identity at the time.

ECU does play the dog role at home but this is a top 5-6 team coming into town. Will they be fired up? Of course. Can they do much about it? Nope. Once WVU starts rolling early it will take the crowd outta the game. I expect WVU to be up 14-17 at half and hopefully continue to roll in half number two.

WVU 44-20
 
Western Michigan Vs Temple

As far as this game goes I locked in the 27 early and will wait to decide what to do with it. I need to look at the Broncos a bit more. Two nice wins against TOL and UVA last 2 weeks. Temple is Temple. These teams played a close on last year if I remember right. I guess Temple is MAC bound next year as well.

No line movement as of yet which suprises me. I figure if I don't care for game that I may have a small middle opportunity by end of week.

More on this game later this week....
 
Washington St vs Stanford

This first comes as A Stanford fade. This team is horrific.

I also like this wazzou team this year. The struggle with Baylor does not scare me. Baylor is a much better football team this year that also held down TCU real well sans a huge bomb in 4th quarter of that game.

This one will be looked at more before i stay on it but I do like it a lot.
 
Quick Summary as of 9-18-06

Alright,

I will talk about the Hoosier game more indepth in next few days.

I did notice the UH line dropping to a -1. It was a real soft 3 and I didn't mind taking that with the nice payout on it. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose with line movements. Hell, 2 weeks ago some of us got screwed playing Rutgers early and look what happened in that game against Illinois.

I will add WVU 1st half asap.

I know I told a few of you guys if you like Michigan State to wait and sure enough the line has risen already. I am still thinking about that game. If ND had beaten UM and MSU had lost or won close last week I was all over MSU +7 in this game. Spartans will run all over them and should be able to score 30 or so. Its all about the Spartan defense. Can they make plays? We'll see.

Notre Dame is gonna be mad and imma sure Weis has team bounce back. Weis made some comments on a blog that he would never lose to MSU again as coah at ND and Sparty players are not to happy. Conversely, last year MSU planted flag at midfield of Notre Dame stadium. This should be a war indeed.
 
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Great minds think alike.


Already on...

WVU -27.5 1/2 UNIT
LOUISVILLE -12.5 1 UNIT
WVU -20 1/2 UNIT (Prolly add to 3/4, 1 unit on full game)
WVU -11 1H 1/4 UNIT
NEVADA -7 -120 1 UNIT

I'm riding the Nevada @ home streak... you prolly know Northwestern better than me so let me know what you think about it. I just know since Week 1 that NW has looked extremely lackluster... at home too. Nevada's offense should prevail and put up enough points here IMO. Plus you got to like a team going for 2-2, rather than 1-3... big mental game there.

I agree about re-thinking things... I just took out a substantial withdrawl and need to re-engergize because things are going to become that much tougher... We are on the "grind" as I put it.

GL bro:shake:
 
A lot of you guys liking Nevada and I have to say I cannot disagree. Basically Week one against Miami Ohio they won that game on emotion. Wasn't impressed them winning against EMU whatsoever. Nevada is one of the best 1-2 teams you will find. I think they take care of business here and I most likely will add. This game kinda slipped umnder radar for myself.
 
B.A.R. said:
Alright, the Mountaineer train keeps rolling. They almost blew the cover the other night as they seemed to get bored in second half. This team just makes plays. They are not great on defesne but they make plays. On offense, its no contest against Slaton and White.

Mind you, I will play First half for 2 units when it comes out. Thats the best play in this game. I also think they cover game spread but as last week showed I almost got moosed by some garbage scores by Maryland late. This team explodes outta the gate. The 2 road games with Slaton and White at top form last year they won by combined 66-13.

Last years matchup doesn't count IMO. Slaton and White had not really played much yet and WVU had basically no offensive identity at the time.

ECU does play the dog role at home but this is a top 5-6 team coming into town. Will they be fired up? Of course. Can they do much about it? Nope. Once WVU starts rolling early it will take the crowd outta the game. I expect WVU to be up 14-17 at half and hopefully continue to roll in half number two.

WVU 44-20

Do you know when Pinny releases 1st half plays? I really think WVU blows them out. Memphis was killing them in the 1st half and basically just imploded to lose the game in the 2nd half. Hankins threw 4 picks in the 2nd half (2 returned for TD's) to give the game away. Memphis (spread offense - half as dangerous as WVU) racked up over 300 yards of total offense in the 1st half before the melt down and had a 20-7 lead. WVU should lead by at least 21 in the 1st half here.

I want to jump on the 1st half play as well!

Card looks good BAR, have a lot of the same plays, just missed out on So Cal, but still took them at -19. Late on L'Ville as well at -13, but still feel comfortable with that one too. I'd be shocked if the Cards don't roll by more than 20.

GL this week bro...:cheers:
 
BAR,

Nice run you are on !!!

With ya on the Ville. Not a Louisville fan at all, but the back up QB behind Brohm, is pretty fucking good, they will not miss a beat. He had some good #s last year when Brohm blew out his knee.:cheers:
 
CATSFAN said:
BAR,

Nice run you are on !!!

With ya on the Ville. Not a Louisville fan at all, but the back up QB behind Brohm, is pretty fucking good, they will not miss a beat. He had some good #s last year when Brohm blew out his knee.:cheers:

Yeah, he sure did CatsFan. I totally agree with yas and think they will be just fine. BTW, thanks for the compliment. :cheers:
 
smo1a said:
Do you know when Pinny releases 1st half plays? I really think WVU blows them out. Memphis was killing them in the 1st half and basically just imploded to lose the game in the 2nd half. Hankins threw 4 picks in the 2nd half (2 returned for TD's) to give the game away. Memphis (spread offense - half as dangerous as WVU) racked up over 300 yards of total offense in the 1st half before the melt down and had a 20-7 lead. WVU should lead by at least 21 in the 1st half here.

I want to jump on the 1st half play as well!

Card looks good BAR, have a lot of the same plays, just missed out on So Cal, but still took them at -19. Late on L'Ville as well at -13, but still feel comfortable with that one too. I'd be shocked if the Cards don't roll by more than 20.

GL this week bro...:cheers:

Thanks a lot bro. I would like to thank your for giving that information about last weeks ECU-Memphis game. I omitted that from my write-up as I am a bit sluggish this morning(lol). That looks very promising indeed.

As far as Pinny goes, I usually don't think about half plays so early in week so I guess thats why I really don't know when they come up. I am trying to find out as we speak.

Best of luck this week bro.:cheers:
 
Lemme add...

I will state again that I hate playing chalk so much. That being said, early in yyear is time for it. I won't just try and find dogs to balance out the card. I am sure a few pups will intrigue me by week's end but I cannot force it.
 
I agree with your assessments on Louisville and I have money on the -13 and feel confident about it.

I don't agree with the WVU bet and I'm leaning toward an East Carolina play catching +21 at home right now . . . .

Be careful fading Okie State here, I agree with your write-up, but remember that Okie State QB, Reid, is from the Houston area and this is an opportunity for him to play in front of his former home crowd.

Good luck on all the rest.
beer.gif
 
B.A.R. said:
I will state again that I hate playing chalk so much. That being said, early in yyear is time for it. I won't just try and find dogs to balance out the card. I am sure a few pups will intrigue me by week's end but I cannot force it.

same thinking as me bro...dont force anything, take it easy, use the jelly if it makes it go in easier!
 
smo1a said:
Do you know when Pinny releases 1st half plays? I really think WVU blows them out. Memphis was killing them in the 1st half and basically just imploded to lose the game in the 2nd half. Hankins threw 4 picks in the 2nd half (2 returned for TD's) to give the game away. Memphis (spread offense - half as dangerous as WVU) racked up over 300 yards of total offense in the 1st half before the melt down and had a 20-7 lead. WVU should lead by at least 21 in the 1st half here.

I want to jump on the 1st half play as well!

Card looks good BAR, have a lot of the same plays, just missed out on So Cal, but still took them at -19. Late on L'Ville as well at -13, but still feel comfortable with that one too. I'd be shocked if the Cards don't roll by more than 20.

GL this week bro...:cheers:

Judging by yards, first down and time of possession The game was pretty much even. And some people i guess dont take into account turnovers in games which is key when capping. Suprisingly ECU held memphis in check with rushing yards. This game is just begging everyone to take WVU. We shall see
 
BAR,

Trying to get a feel for this MSU game...the more and more I look into it I do like the lame dame though....It will be a war and Weiss is probably showing that flag being planted at midfield over and over to the players.
 
new poster here, but wanted to inject some thoughts

ND/MSU Over. game has 34-31 written all over it. Week 4 is here and ND offense is getting a little bit more rythmic if you will. Spartans have always put up points at home, but I do not see them stopping or having any answers for ND.
 
doc32-totally agree that the game goes over. Both teams will pass against each other well. MSU will definitely run well against Irish. Should be a shootout.

Goose-Thanks bro. I think it could be a drubbing so lets get it done.
 
Louisville KState

Wow, this line actually Opneed 7!!

09/175:01pmLOUIS-300 KANST+220 LOUIS-7.0 KANST+7.0 09/186:17pmLOUIS-700 KANST+500 LOUIS-14.0 KANST+14.0
 
College...the only way its a concern is I couldn't buy of any of it now. I still love the game. This game is huge for Houston program and they are better team IMO. I never expected that movement to tell you the truth.

At the top of thread I have added two dogs in. I will talk in more detail tomorrow night about those.

I amy still add CAL and have a play on the Primetime game Saturday evening.
 
Uncle Lloyds presser this week.

Opening statement: "After watching the film, it verified what I felt coming out of the game. It was truly a team victory. I thought we played with great intensity; we were focused, and by far played our best game. I thought our special teams were much improved, particularly our kick coverage. We kicked the ball off 10 times. Steve Breaston did an excellent job fielding punts, getting the ball back up the field and reducing the net punting they had because, certainly they punted the football very, very well.

"Garrett Rivas kicked the ball well. The one extra point, Notre Dame has concentrated efforts to push inside and get guys up. I thought the ball maybe was a little low, but with that exception, I thought Garrett continued to kick the ball very well.

"Defensively and offensively we did the things we needed to do to win. The only negative was late in the fourth quarter, the three personal foul penalties … I don't think any of those were flagrant, but we've got to be able to pull off on the sideline because those penalties really aided their last touchdown.

"We're excited to go into the Big Ten season, and to play a Wisconsin team that is 3-0. It's the same basic Wisconsin team that beat Auburn in their bowl game, and they beat us a year ago. They have an outstanding defensive football team. They play with great intensity, they pursue the ball extremely hard, they are physical and talented up front. The linebacker [Mark Zalewski] is one of the better players in the league. Offensively they are a big, strong team that wants to run the football, control the football, play action pass, throw the quick game and of course [quarterback] John Stocco has been around forever."

On playing Wisconsin after the win in South Bend: "I told our team before the season I felt this would be one of the greatest challenges of the season for them because of where it falls in the schedule and the kind of team Wisconsin is. We'll see. I don't have all the answers, but I know if fundamentally, your preparation or intensity isn't the same week in and week out in this conference, you're not going to be successful."

On offensive lineman Justin Boren's health: "Justin Boren ran yesterday (Sept. 17). He will resume practice tomorrow. I don't know how he'll respond, but he's made a lot of progress. There is going to be a point here, hopefully soon, that he'll be back in the two-deep."

On the response from former players after the win: "Yeah, I've talked to quite a few of them. [Jeff] Backus, I talk to him pretty regularly because he's gotten involved in the development effort for Mott Children's and Women's Hospital. I talked to Hutch [Steve Hutchinson] last week.

"Aaron Shea called me after the game. I had a call this morning from Desmond Howard. I get a lot of notes and voice messages, wishing us all the best. It always means a lot.

"We always tell them that these guys are watching. There is no question they are."

On how important the victory was: "Every winning game is a win for the program. I've taken four teams down there as the head coach, and I've been down there a lot of other times. I know how hard it is to win there.

"So did it mean a lot? You're damned right.

"When you're dealing with two great traditions – the two winningest programs in the history of this game – that's big. But I'm not overdoing it, either.

"We've got a long way to go here. The really sad thing is, there is no time to celebrate. There's no time really to enjoy it. You get a few minutes on the way home where you can really just relax and enjoy what happened, and appreciate it. But when you get up on Sunday morning, it's over. You've got to move on – that's what we have to do."

On who dumped Gatorade on him: "I'm researching that. Nobody will tell me."​
 
Good lookin card Big Al! With you on Louisville, and I will join you on Hawaii at some point (thought the line was going to keep climbing :-/ ).

GL this week!
 
BDK,Aztec and Rexy...thanks fellas.

The updated card is in first post. I may still omit IU and WMU. Doing ome last second looking over. If I did with WMU would have a solid midle to play with.

One more play to be added...just watching the line for a few hours.

GL to ALL today.
 
Bar, on board with most of them. Keep up the great work bro...what ever you're doing is obviously working!

:bow:
 
Canceled out the WMU play. I like fading Temple but should be sloppy weather and a 28-0 game would be a sweet middle..

Sparty on tonight. No matter the bounceback or revenge or Fat Weis...I think in this enviroment this evening State gets it doen.

Spartans 37-31

GL all....should be a great afternnon.

Louisville got it done early...Iowa late play add on didn't...ah well..its good
 
Well, weird day but a good one at same time.

7-6-1 w/Houston pending(they just stopped Cowboys on 4th and 2 :) in red zone) +2.37 units.

Either way going to be up for day which is great for this Saturday scared me a lot.

Mooses in PSU and MSU today(didn't post PSU but played it small) never help but hit Killas play as well that cancelled out PSU. Either way, happy if Houston comes in to have a pretty good day.

Hope all is well for everyone today. Can't wait to get started on next weeks games.
 
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