Funny, you ask, I was planning on writing up some thoughts.....here you go:
The big injury concerns first. Devin Street and James Conner are both gametime decisions. If you haven't seen Street, he's a stud.
On the other side, Taylor Heinicke got a concussion two weeks ago against Liberty. Did not leave the game and actually threw the game winning td late. With the bye week last week, he claims to be healthy, tho I heard he looked bad in Tuesday's practice. ODU is missing their senior LG, David Born and have shuffled around the line to move the starter RT (Morrell, with the most NFL potential) inside I'm guessing to deal with Donald. Morrell played guard last year. Nate Barnes, the best DT is back. Larry Alston, the best outside backer is back from suspension. Reid, a starting DE is back.
When Pitt has the ball:
Pitt's offense is not very impressive, imo. There big weakness is obviously the offensive line. They are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and only 117 rushing yards per game. Conner is a very talented back but has struggled with injuries and if he's out it is a big blow for them. They have 2 stud wide outs that do most of the damage for the offense. Savage is only completing 56% of his passes, but averaging 9 yards per attempt. THus, the offense can look bad for long stretches and then they hit Street for 40 yards. As I said earlier, the o-line is not good. TO go with the lack of running game, they are allowing 4.2 sacks per game and if not for Savage being a big strong guy that is good at shedding tackles, they may give up 5-6 sacks per game. The key for ODU is to slow down the wide outs.
ODU Defense. ODU defense is among the worst in the country. They give up 34 points per game (47 and 52 vs. BCS schools). I've seen every play and been to every home game. I can't pin the defense struggles on just one thing. They are small, they are young, and they make way too many mental mistakes. I can't even keep up with the number of freshman that start or play significant minutes on defense, its over 10. The are giving up 4.8 yards per carry and allowing passers to complete 69% of passes for 8.7 yards per attempt. The ODU D-line averages about 275 pounds vs. the PItt O-line averaging 320. Pitt is susceptible to teams that can match up with their WRs and get pressure on the QB with 4 down lineman. This is not something ODU will be able to do. Even at the FCS level, this defense struggles to get after the QB. On the bright side for ODU, they are getting 3 good players back in the fold. They have improved over the course of the season as well as they really shut down a good FCS offense in Liberty. They have started to bring more blitzes in the past couple games, my guess is the young guys are getting better at knowing their assignments.
On the bright side for ODU defense----off a bye, young team improving throughout the year. But, one thing that really catches my eye with them is they the type of offense that really hurts them is mobile QB's. Mainly through the triple option, but also through read options like Maryland runs with C.J. Brown. That isnt the case with Pitt. The defense will know where the QB is. Although Pitt will run successfull on them and they will likely be able to hit Street/Boyd at times, I think this defense will have more success vs. Pitt than they did vs. Maryland and ECU (which isn't saying much, I know)
When ODU has the ball:
ODU is lead by the FCS Walter Payton award winning Taylor Heinicke (as a soph). For his career, he's completed 70% (74% this year) for 341 yards per game and 83 td/20 int. He truly is a pleasure to watch and if he stayed in FCS, he may have every career record to himself. Very under rated runner, accurate passer, strong arm. They spread teams out and employ a quick strike offense. They no huddle and they really catch defenses on their heels. I don't think Pitt is going to be use to the tempo that ODU plays and getting in plays, changing coverage, rotating defense players is going to be tough for them. ODU features several capable wide outs and spread the ball out. The defenses you need to compare playing against Pitt to are ECU and Maryland. Against ECU, Heinicke was 39-52 for 370 yards, 3 td, 0 int. The difference in that game was that Heinicke ran into an OL and fumbled which was returned for a TD. ECU played a very aggressive defense and Heincked played the best game he's every played. They got a lot of pressure, but Heinicke was able to get away and either run for 10 yards or complete passes downfield. They weren't able to get the running game going as their backs only ran 12 times for 38 yards. (QB ran 11x for 52 yards) I do think ODU's struggles offensively against Maryland are overstated. They actually moved the ball fairly well, but a tipped pass and another couple bad throws really derailed the ability to put points on the board. Maryland used a different strategy than the attacking ECU. Maryland used 4 DE's and didn't bother with stopping the run. They played a Dime defense, often using cover 3 and cover 4 keeping ODU's WRs in front of them and then tackling them after the catch. They were very successful at this as they tackle very well. Liberty is a team that has 2 NFL corners and they employed the same strategy 2 weeks ago vs. ODU. Althought they gave up 550 yards, they stifled ODU in the red zone allowing only 7 points on 6 red zone possessions.
I expect Pitt to employ a similar strategy. I think they are going to put it on their D-Line to get pressure on ODU. (they have nations sack leader in Donald, a DT). They are probably going to play quarters defense to protect the secondary and keep ODU in front of them. This is something Heinicke has mentioned a lot.....he's gotten a lot better at taken what the defense gave them, but last week struggled in the red zone, something they are typically successful at.
I don't like Pitt's defense outside of Donald and their D-line to a lesser degree. Their secondary looks to me like it can be exposed. Playing against UVA and VT, which neither have a good offense nor a QB that can consistently put the ball where it needs to be probably over shadows the level of Pitt's defense. VT just shut the offense down as they knew Pitt couldn't do anything on offense vs. them.
The line this morning is 19.5 and 72.5. The first line I saw was 18.5 and 73.5 on Monday or Tuesday. Pitt is off 2 tough games winning at UVA and losing at VT. ODU is off a bye and this game along with UNC later are the games of the year for them. Pit has Navy next week so they couldn't possibly have different offense to prepare for back to back. I'm probably the wrong person to ask, I'm always going to be optimistic on ODU. What good offenses has Pitt faced?
FSU- they gave up 24 first downs and 533 yards.
Duke- they gave up 23 first downs and 532 yards.
I won't try to claim ODU's offense can match FSU's in any way shape or form. But, their offense is significantly better than New Mexico, UVA, and VT. I think ODU will be able to put points on the board. I think moving best OL inside to deal with Donald and the quick strike ability will limit the pressure Pitt can get on the offense. What they do in the red zone will be the difference in the game. On the other side, Pitt will score some points as well, but not 50. My score prediction, for what it's worth, is 38-31 Pitt.
