Been a crazy Holiday season for me too, so I hear ya on the time thing. I couldn't move yesterday until after the 1 pm games had come and gone. I think I turned my liver into Hoisin sauce yesterday. Thanks for the reminder - I'll definitely make that up next time I grill some kebabs. Cheers bro.
So here's my take on this Louisville thing:
First of all, I'm a Gators fan. But I honestly believe Louisville can win this game. If they can keep Gillislee from having a huge day, the Cardinals should be able to keep this game within reach. I like the fact that there are so many players from FLA playing on this Louisville roster, I like that Strong is coaching against his former team, and I like Bridgewater's ability to lead and bring his team from behind. Louisville has come back when trailing by 10 or more points to win three games this year (Rutgers - trailed by 11 at half, Cincy trailed by 10 in the 3rdQ, and Southern Miss - 11 in the second). While the Gators are a solid running team who you would think would be away to salt away the big leads, they have failed to do it all season. Gators just 1-4 ATS as double digit faves.
Sure, Florida has some mismatches in this game. The most glaring are:
1. Their running game vs. Louisville's run D - the Cards are going to have to stack the box and play man with the Gators WR's. But FLA has the 114th ranked passing offense in the country. I think Louisville can do this and keep FLA's running game from getting out of control.
2. Net punting - in a game that figures to be fairly low scoring by the posted total, the field position battle will go a long way towards deciding tonight's outcome. FLA is 7th in the country in net punting while LOU is 119th.... OUCH
3. FLA's defense - Gators have the 14th ranked red zone defense, and the 6th best third down defense in the country. It will be a real test tonight for Bridgewater and his offense.
A few things to like about Louisville:
1. Cards boast the number one red zone offense in the country. They get inside the 20 and come away with points. This is a number I LOVE when getting two TD's with a total in the mid forties.
2. Cardinals 14th in the country on offensive third down conversion. FLA is 83rd. Sure, much of this has to do with the opposition that each team has faced but don't forget about FLA's cupcakes this year. This number isn't a surprise because of the Gator's fairly one dimensional offense. Forcing them into 3rd downs will mean punts.
3. FLA is 107th in the country in penalty yardage this season.... Lack of discipline. Me gusta...
I'm still considering a few more units here on the Cards. This may end up as my biggest play of the bowl season. Good luck
