NCAA Bowls

Military Bowl Plays:

SJSU - 7 -115 two units
First half under 22.5 -105 two units
Full game under 45 -110 one unit

I played SJSU earlier in the week when I didn't know this wind would be here. It is windy as shit here today. Not just gusts. A pretty steady howl of 20-30 mph. If you need more than that to play an under how about this - Bowling Green plays a shit schedule and they are still 119th in the NCAA in red zone offense. The schedule differential between these two just can't be ignored. Situationally, SJSU has been a TD or more fave 6 times this season and has covered in five of those games.
 
Thanks VK.... I didn't get to see anything but the fourth quarter. Thought for sure they'd pick up that 4th and 2 at the end the way they were moving the ball, but a win is a win. Good luck and happy new year bud...
 
scdoggy said:
Military Bowl Plays:

SJSU - 7 -115 two units
First half under 22.5 -105 two units
Full game under 45 -110 one unit

I played SJSU earlier in the week when I didn't know this wind would be here. It is windy as shit here today. Not just gusts. A pretty steady howl of 20-30 mph. If you need more than that to play an under how about this - Bowling Green plays a shit schedule and they are still 119th in the NCAA in red zone offense. The schedule differential between these two just can't be ignored. Situationally, SJSU has been a TD or more fave 6 times this season and has covered in five of those games.
Click to expand...

Yes ,Yes Yes,,,BG has seen nothing even close to Fales and Grigsby led passing attack with the Spartans, and the Falcons piss poor ''O'' doesn't have the weapons to keep pace

gettem doggy
 
Let's get em Blood. I think I'd play this number all the way down to a 42. I expect this total to drop today if this wind keeps up
 
Cincinnati -9.5 -110 three units

Cincy has gotten it done on the road this year, and is superior to Duke. 24 seniors on this Bearcat team most of whom are playing the last football game of their career. I expect maximum effort from the Cats and a thorough beatdown.

Nothing for me in the UCLA Baylor game. Lean Bruins but question their motivation, and see this one as a coin toss. Gun to the head I take the over, but UCLA defense can make stops and may stifle Baylor a bit more than expected.
 
Got extremely fortunate to get covers on both faves last night.

Ohio/LA-Monroe over 59.5 -110 two units.

Marrski and Jump mentioned the size advantage of Ohio's Oline in this one which should help them do their thing on the ground, and I think Monroe will be able to chuck it around without much trouble. Should be a shootout and a close game if the turnover battle doesn't get lopsided.
 
Minnesota +13.5 -105 two units
Minny +14 -115 one unit
Red Raiders haven't covered a game since before Halloween and they haven't been good at covering points all year. Their ground game won't allow them to control the game with a lead, and I question their motivation in this one. Minny's secondary should be good enough to allow them to hang around and T_Tech's turnover margin is as bad as it gets.
 
Rice + 1 three units

Leaned USAF earlier in the month, but look at a few key categories, and I think you'll agree:

Air Force in the Red Zone:

Offense ranked 102
Defense ranked 106
Turnover margin 109....
 
scdoggy, glad I saw the Red Zone stats before placing my AFA wager....flipped the script and going with the Owls now.
 
Damn JML - that QB injury hurts, and Rice a piece of shit so far. Hope things turn around second half but bad start....

WVU/Cuse over 70 - 110 three units
Sun Devils -13 -110 two units

Weather be damned, I see a ton of points in the Bronx today.

Navy won't have the horses to keep up in this one.
 
Total dropped right after I bet it at 70 in NY... sonofa..

First half over 34.5 -110 two units
 
Air Force in the Red Zone:

Offense ranked 102
Defense ranked 106
Turnover margin 109....

Thanks for the info:shake:
 
Nice hit with Rice, Doggy.

Counting on Geno getting most of those points in the Bronx...
 
Looking for some action tonight, and as tough as it is to play totals this low in college, I don't see much scoring between these two. I'll take OT out of the mix in what looks like a coin toss on the side.

TCU/MSU First half under 20 -110 two units
 
Happy New Year guys. Won't be around much next two days. Here's my plays today:

NCST +240 one unit
NCST +4.5 first half -110 one unit
GT +240 one unit
Iowa St -1 -110 three units

I should be putting more on GT here. I think they whip SC's ass today. USC doesn't wanna be here and they are a pack of quitters.

NCST will give Vandy hell all day.
 
We both playing with the house's money Silk. Win some lose some....
My head is still banging from last night. God bless Tony Romo... Should be a hell of a game next week. Cheers to 2013 bro
 
Great Rose Bowl. You guys no I love underdogs but this game tonight is a mismatch.

FSU -14.5 one unit
FSU/NoIll first half over 29.5 -110 three units
 
Louisville +14 -105 three units

I may get more of this later today. I think Louisville has a decent shot at winning this game outright. Will try to get a writeup in here this afternoon.
 
some great calls lately and I'm too wrapped up to even look at bowl games, I'll grab some Cards on a tail. GL and make that Hoisin bbq sauce already
 
Been a crazy Holiday season for me too, so I hear ya on the time thing. I couldn't move yesterday until after the 1 pm games had come and gone. I think I turned my liver into Hoisin sauce yesterday. Thanks for the reminder - I'll definitely make that up next time I grill some kebabs. Cheers bro.

So here's my take on this Louisville thing:

First of all, I'm a Gators fan. But I honestly believe Louisville can win this game. If they can keep Gillislee from having a huge day, the Cardinals should be able to keep this game within reach. I like the fact that there are so many players from FLA playing on this Louisville roster, I like that Strong is coaching against his former team, and I like Bridgewater's ability to lead and bring his team from behind. Louisville has come back when trailing by 10 or more points to win three games this year (Rutgers - trailed by 11 at half, Cincy trailed by 10 in the 3rdQ, and Southern Miss - 11 in the second). While the Gators are a solid running team who you would think would be away to salt away the big leads, they have failed to do it all season. Gators just 1-4 ATS as double digit faves.

Sure, Florida has some mismatches in this game. The most glaring are:

1. Their running game vs. Louisville's run D - the Cards are going to have to stack the box and play man with the Gators WR's. But FLA has the 114th ranked passing offense in the country. I think Louisville can do this and keep FLA's running game from getting out of control.
2. Net punting - in a game that figures to be fairly low scoring by the posted total, the field position battle will go a long way towards deciding tonight's outcome. FLA is 7th in the country in net punting while LOU is 119th.... OUCH
3. FLA's defense - Gators have the 14th ranked red zone defense, and the 6th best third down defense in the country. It will be a real test tonight for Bridgewater and his offense.


A few things to like about Louisville:

1. Cards boast the number one red zone offense in the country. They get inside the 20 and come away with points. This is a number I LOVE when getting two TD's with a total in the mid forties.
2. Cardinals 14th in the country on offensive third down conversion. FLA is 83rd. Sure, much of this has to do with the opposition that each team has faced but don't forget about FLA's cupcakes this year. This number isn't a surprise because of the Gator's fairly one dimensional offense. Forcing them into 3rd downs will mean punts.
3. FLA is 107th in the country in penalty yardage this season.... Lack of discipline. Me gusta...


I'm still considering a few more units here on the Cards. This may end up as my biggest play of the bowl season. Good luck
 
Man, I thought I had kidney failure yesterday morning...4 straight blurry days...On Lou w/you.
 
I like that Strong is coaching against his former team
Click to expand...

How about going against the SEC who clearly snubbed him from a Head Coaching position for being a black man married to a white woman? Possible hidden motivation for Strong?

Good luck Doggy.
 
Play - thanks.

Mac - good to hear from you. Go Skins.
XY - It will be a few days until I can function normally.
Blood - Thanks

VK - Motivation is something that won't be in doubt tonight. Just hope the Cards can show some strength on defense and keep the Gators from picking up 5-6 per carry on the ground.


Getting one more for a total of four units on LOU at -105 +14
 
I like it. I hope teddy b throws 50x cuz that run game will be stifled. I think we see a few points here. Gl bro.
 
Hunt, Lex - thanks guys. In addition to winning a nice sized wager, that game had to be the feel good story of the 2012 campaign. Despite his sometimes wreckless decisions during the course of a game, Charlie Strong has always been a guy I liked a ton. Nice to see him let the dogs out on the program that put him on the map. Great win for their program, and a hell of a performance all around

Tonight I'm sitting on a KSt +300 for one unit, and have decided that's all I'll do here. I think Kst has an outside shot at winning this game, but if I had to bet the spread, I'd probably go Ducks. Just a value play on a game that has a lot of angles to it and they are all a bit blurry to me. I'll be waiting for better games to throw money at, but the fan in me is excited as hell about seeing how this one plays out.

Speaking of:

Shhhhh.... ND +300 one unit
 
Let's go nuts tonight. A few things that really favor the Sooners here:

A&M has the 80th ranked pass D in the land, and Oklahoma's rush D is 79th in the country.
Both offenses should exploit the oppositions D.
Oklahoma is 6th in punt returns 4th in KO returns.

GOn be some points tonight, and I think the wrong team is favored

Over 72.5 three units
Okla TT over 34.5 two units
Okla +3 even one unit
Okla -3.5 +200 one unit
Okla +145 half unit
 
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