NCAA Bowls

scdoggy

scdoggy

Moderator (Honorary)
Hey fellas - was away for a few weeks. Had some tough pills to swallow outside of the betting world and have left me short on time. Hopefully things turn around soon, and I'll have more chances to post. Glad to see the crew around here made it through the site crash. Anyhow, here's one play that I'll be on for more than a regular sized play:

Rutgers +2.5 two units

Took two of this now and will take more at 3, and a unit on the ML, but I'll wait and see what this line does. A few things to note here:

Motivation. VT can't be motivated here. This is their most lackluster bowl game in a long time, and while both teams had their sights set higher, I just don't see how the Hokies come in with any kind of gusto in this one.

Rutgers run defense will totally shut down VT's running attach. Many will point to Rutgers offense not being able to score much on VT and I can't make much of an argument against that. I see a low scoring, back and forth game where field position and turnovers decide the game.

Rutgers is 21st in the country in turnover margin. VT is 78th. Many say you can't cap turnovers, but if you look at what these two have done all season, Rutgers forces a TON of turnovers (10 more than VT this year). Virginia Tech also LOVES to turn the football over, and their special teams, which used to be a cornerstone of Beamer's teams, are now a glaring weakness of the 2012 Hokies.

In a game where the little things will make the difference, Rutgers looks to me to be the logical play...

Will edit and put all plays here, writeups down below in the thread:

UCF -7 -115 three units UCF - 7 -110 one unit - WIN 1-0 + 1 unit
UCF/BallSt first half over 30 -105 one unit - WIN 2-0 +2 units
Arizona -9 even 1.5 units - LOSS 2-1 +.5 units
BYU -3 -115 two units WIN 3-1 +2.5 units
BYU -165 one unit - WIN 4-1 +3.5 units
1H BYU/SDSt under 23 -110 one unit WIN 5-1 +4.5 units
Washington +195 one unit - LOSS 5-2 +3.5 units
Wash second half +2.5 -105 two units - WIN 6-2 +5.5 units
ULL/ECU Over 66.5 two units - WIN 7-2 +7.5 units
ECU +6.5 one unit = LOSS 7-3 +6.5 units
ECU +210 half unit - LOSS 7-4 +6 units
SMU +14 -125 one unit WIN 8-4 +7 units
Central Michigan +210 one unit WIN 9-4 +9.1 units
WKY/CMU Under 13 first Q -120 one unit LOSS 9-5 +7.9 units
SJSU - 7 -115 two units WIN 10-5 +9.9 units
SJSU/BG First half under 22.5 -105 two units WIN 11-5 +11.9 units
SJSU/BG under 45 -110 one unit LOSS 11-6 +10.8 units
Cincym -9.5 -110 three units WIN 12-6 +13.8 units
Ohio/La-Mon O 59.5 two units LOSS 12-7 +11.6 units
Rutgers +2.5 -110 two units LOSS 12-8 +9.4 units
Minny +13.5 -105 two units; +14 -115 one unit WIN +12.4 units
Rice +1 -110 three units WIN 14-8 +15.4 units
WVU/Cuse over 70 - 110 three units LOSS 14- 9 +12.1 units
WVU/Cuse 1st H over 34.5 two units LOSS 14-10 +9.9 units
Sun Devils -13 -110 two units WIN 15-10 +11.9 units
Ore St/Tex over 57 -110 four units WIN 16-10 +15.9 units
Ore St -160 one unit LOSS 16-11 +14.3 units
2nd half Ore St/Tex Und 27.5 -120 two units LOSS 16-12 +11.9 units
2nd half TT under 13 Tex -105 one unit LOSS 16-13 +10.85 units
TCU/MSU First half under 20 -110 two units WIN 17-13 +12.85 units
NCST +240 one unit LOSS 17-14 +11.85 units
NCST +4.5 first half -110 one unit LOSS 17-15 +10.85 units
GT +240 one unit WIN 18-15 +13.25 units
Iowa St -1 -110 three units LOSS 18-16 +9.95 units
Stanford -4 -110 two units WIN 19-16 +11.95 units
FSU -14.5 -110 one unit WIN 20-16 +12.95 units
FSU/NoIll 1st H over 29.5 -110 three units LOSS 20-17 +9.65 units
2nd H NoIll TT under 9 -125 two units WIN 21-17 +11.65 units
Louisville +14 -105 4 units WIN 22-17 +15.65 units
KSt +300 one unit LOSS 22-18 +14.65 units
Okla Over 72.5 three units LOSS 22-19 +11.35 units
Okla TT over 34.5 two units LOSS 22-20 +9.1 units
Okla +3 even one unit LOSS 22-21 +8.1 units
Okla -3.5 +200 one unit LOSS 22-22 +7.1 units
Okla +145 half unit LOSS 22-23 +6.6 units
First half TT Ark St over 16.5 -115 two units LOSS 22-24 +4.3 units
Notre Dame +10 -110 four units
ND +300 one unit
Prop - McCarron under 219.5 passing yds -130 two units

 
Last edited:
Glad to have you back buddy. This place just isn't the same without you. Hope everything is good.
 
GL on the bowl season Doggy, glad to see you back and hope everything is going to be ok.
 
Keep in mind that if Rutgers had won 1 of the last 2 games they would be in the Orange Bowl. Not too mention they had a 21-3 lead taken back on a penalty in the last game. Do these kids care? Va Tech in the other hand squeezed into their Bowl game by winning the last game. Maybe there's more of a feel good leading up to the game which usually means better practices.
id be careful with Rutgers state of mind here. They completely blew a huge opportunity to be in the BCS. Just my opinion.
 
Appreciate all the responses guys. Looking forward to Bowl Season...

Wise - good points on Rutgers. Its always hard to cap motivation this time of year, and you could be totally right about Rutgers. There could be all kinds of storylines going on behind the scenes that we don't even know about. If I had to hang my hat on one thing with this game, its the turnovers. Think back to games this year when VT was forced to throw, and look at the turnovers they committed in those games. I just see Logan Thomas getting impatient and trying to force the ball into tight coverages leading to turnovers. With a 41.5 total being posted, this looks to be the slow paced kind of game Rutgers has been used to playing all season. I think they'll be more comfortable in low gear and patiently wait for VT to fuck up and hand them the game.
 
i like where your heads at scdoggy. and after the way rutgers started the season, i don't think i'll ever count out Nova and those huge WRs. Special teams has been something of an issue for beamer this year as well.
 
Central Florida -7 -115 three units

Ball State has played well overall this season and made backers some coin along the way with their 9-3 ATS record, but their run defense really scares me in this matchup. UCF is a team that has capitalized on turnovers all season (16th in the country in turnover margin, 22nd in turnovers gained, and 17th in turnovers lost). Bottom line, they take it away and take care of it. Also, the Knights are the 8th least penalized team in the country. Ball St is 105th in turnovers gained, and 107th in run defense. What's the point of all this? We've got a team that takes the ball away, takes care of the ball, doesn't take stupid penalties, runs the football well - up against a shitty run defense. I see them taking advantage of turnovers, getting a lead and eating up clock against a piss poor Ball St run D. The cherry on top is that this game is being played 90 minutes from Orlando....

Notre Dame +10 -110 four units

I don't have a ton that hasn't been already discussed here. This is just too many points in this matchup. Teams are very similar in the way they play the game. Two strong defenses who rely on the run heavily to setup the pass. Lots of talent on both sides. If you look at all the categories in this one and see where each team ranks, you'll see the Tide, and just behind them comes the Irish (usually right on their heels). I see this game playing out the same way. I'd make this Alabama by 6, and I don't think it ever gets out of reach for the Irish. One other thing I will mention is that I think Saban's decision making during games is suspect at times. There's no denying this guy's results, and his ability to recruit is phenomenal. But his "in game" decisions sometimes leave me scratching my head. I actually like Kelly better in this aspect of the game. I personally think this is going to be one hell of a football game that comes right down to the wire. I'll probably throw a little chunk at the ML as well.
 
love it scdoggy..good thought on the game!....yea Saban hasn't impressed me on his decision making...leaves some points off the board for sure...
 
Thanks Galt. I may add more to Rutgers but want to wait and see if a +3 shows up without paying for it.

Arizona -9 even 1.5 units
 
Against you on Zona & probably against you again on UCF, but as always good luck to you Doggy. Do damage this bowl season
 
BYU -3 -115 two units
BYU -165 one unit
BYU SDSU first half under 23 -110 one unit

I don't get the Aztec love I'm seeing around here. I just don't see them scoring much at all. Some numbers to look at from the BYU side:

BYU rush defense #2 in NCAA
BYU red zone defense #1 in NCAA
BYU third down defense #3 in NCAA
BYU pass defense #13 in NCAA
BYU net punting #2 in NCAA
BYU time of possession #15 in the land

The Cougars are playing against a very one dimensional offense that likes to run the football. I just do not see how the Aztecs are going to win this game tonight. The above numbers tell a story of a game in which BYU will play the field possession game, start out slow and win this one when SDST's defense is gassed from being on the field too long later in second half. The concern for me is turnovers. If BYU can hang on to the football (they give it up a fair amount, and don't force many turnovers) they should win this game rather easily.
 
Like a boss.

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emkee - Nice when one turns out the way it looks on paper. I'm in the city of brotherly love tonight. Tearing this town sideways DC style

Tough luck on your boys tonight Aztec. Get em tomorrow on UCF. GL brol
 
Tear that shit up, bro.

Wish I was there, miss the Delph like a mutha f**ka, my 1st Christmas outside Philly. Can't complain about the ass and sunshine here in SD though.

You need to make it out here sometime...
 
Hah. You won't get any argument from me bro. Lived in La Jolla for a hot minute before I went bananas and got married to a DC girl with roots in town.

More ass than a toilet seat out there. Give my regards to them titties like only the most skilled of surgeons can create. God bless.

woof woof Hunt.
 
Doggy,

I could be completely off on Ball/UCF. But Even with HFA in St Pete I made UCF 6.5. These teams seem really even in alot of areas. Obviously UCF is a better defensive team and that counts for something. But when a team passes just under 30x/gm like UCF You cant have either a sack or Int every 12.6 attempts. That against an efficient offense like Ball St means keeping them in the game.Where Ball State's whole philosphy is to go score for score with you and hope they're the last 1 standing, UCF wants to slow down the pace, hold the ball and limit your opportunities. Which they can do if they dont have to pass it over 30x/gm.

So pulling some of that together Ball st is efficient enough on offense to make UCF hav eto stay efficient on offense. The problem is this will mean UCF prolly passes more than 30x. In which case I feel extremely confident in Ball St. UCF is 2-4 in games in which they have had to pass 30+ times. The 2 wins were by 7 over So Miss and 13 over FIU in a game FIU went 3/13 23% on 3rd down.Basically Id need only for Ball St to perform at any reasonable facsimile to how they have during the season and they shouldn't lose by more than 7.

I do have a range that includes the possibility of a 9pt UCF win (35-26) but my stuff points to 34-28 to 32-29 being the where the game falls with UCF winning. Hope that helps some on explaining my thinking. There's alot more but dont wanna clog thread with inane details.

Good luck
 
Silkydiamonds said:
Doggy,

I could be completely off on Ball/UCF. But Even with HFA in St Pete I made UCF 6.5. These teams seem really even in alot of areas. Obviously UCF is a better defensive team and that counts for something. But when a team passes just under 30x/gm like UCF You cant have either a sack or Int every 12.6 attempts. That against an efficient offense like Ball St means keeping them in the game.Where Ball State's whole philosphy is to go score for score with you and hope they're the last 1 standing, UCF wants to slow down the pace, hold the ball and limit your opportunities. Which they can do if they dont have to pass it over 30x/gm.

So pulling some of that together Ball st is efficient enough on offense to make UCF hav eto stay efficient on offense. The problem is this will mean UCF prolly passes more than 30x. In which case I feel extremely confident in Ball St. UCF is 2-4 in games in which they have had to pass 30+ times. The 2 wins were by 7 over So Miss and 13 over FIU in a game FIU went 3/13 23% on 3rd down.Basically Id need only for Ball St to perform at any reasonable facsimile to how they have during the season and they shouldn't lose by more than 7.

I do have a range that includes the possibility of a 9pt UCF win (35-26) but my stuff points to 34-28 to 32-29 being the where the game falls with UCF winning. Hope that helps some on explaining my thinking. There's alot more but dont wanna clog thread with inane details.

Good luck
Click to expand...
please do so in the discussion thread...i'm interested
 
Junk - thanks.
Thanks Bull. Good luck the rest of the way.
Play - we're bound to disagree sometimes. Went back over my numbers and still like this one quite a bit.
Grind - get em bro.
Emkee - always a good thing when we see things alike. Should be a good one to watch. Lotta guys I respect on the other side but sticking to my guns.
Silk - you never clog threads bro - your input around here is as valued as anyones. Appreciate the insight. I guess what this boils down to for me is that I've got Ball's defense ranked a lot lower than most around here. I see UCF getting into the upper 30's easy tonight, as they have against most of the similar defenses they've gone up against this season. I'm not sure they'll have to throw much to get there. Really looking forward to this one.

One of my favorite plays of the bowl season:

UCF -7 -110 one more unit - bringing me to a total of 4 units here.
First half over 30 -105 one unit

Won't be around much tomorrow but make take a bite on the under in the Boise/Wash game. Lean Boise but may be too many points.

Have a good Xmas everybody.
 
I gotta agree with UCF here as well doggy.

Ball st gives up 254 yards passing a game and gives up 205 yards rushing a game. I see UCF being more than able to do whatever they want on offense and if that is dictating the pace they should be more than equipped to do so. On defense they are pretty similar across the board to NIU and I would not be surprised with a very similar outcome to the NIU/Ball st game which ended in a 12 pt Ball St loss.

GL tonight
 
Merry Xmas to you too.

Hopefully Philly will recover from your whirlwind tour.

Get some, bro...
 
Thanks Silk - you're as classy as they come. Get em tomorrow.

I see too much value on a solid defense tomorrow to pass on this price:

Washington +195 one unit

ECU/ULL over 66.5 two units

Shit defensesthis one should fly over
 
I'm not impressed by ULL. This line doesn't make sense to me:

ECU +6.5 one unit
ECU +210 half unit
 
Thanks fellas. Like what I see from the Huskies. Getting more at half

Wash second half +2.5 -105 two units
 
Central Michigan +210 one unit
WKY/CMU Under 13 first Q -120 one unit

Don't get the WKY love. Lots of butterflies, D coordinator calling plays, and they don't have enough for me to make them much of a fave here - if one at all....
 
like that 1st q under - I ended up playing 1st half under 28-1/2 for a good sized play - hope we both see it the same.
BOL
J
 
All Taggart called were basic run plays or I would agree that guidry calling plays hurts. GL doggy .. WKU showed they could lose to anyone the last month of the year ....of course CMU qualifies as "anyone" better than most. Both teams are best served by running so if they can stop it at all then you should be ok on that under.
 
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