Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Baskets
NYK @ CLE (ADD : Cavs -9 -110 (2x) ) Loss -2.20 didnt know Q was playing would have only been over play.
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)LOSS -16.10
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)WIN +13.96
- Thanks to the NJ cold streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at +3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NJ but this is hard to pass up valuewise. Especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is there bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with a similiar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston. Boston has issues with there big men as Jefferson working his way back and Perkins is battling a nagging knee..
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x) Loss -3.18
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)Loss -6.85
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)Loss -8.89
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x) Loss -5.4
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)Loss -4.90
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)WIn +6.00
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)PUSH (would have played 2nd Over )
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x) L -1.2
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x) L -7.62
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206(1/2x) Win +6.03
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x) middled -6 -131 2nd H (2x)Loss -1.80
Ark St +25 -105 (4x) Loss -4.20 (one freakin pt)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)PUSH
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x) Loss -3.15 )2 damn points and would have played th 2nd H over)
Over 131.5 -110 WF (3x)Win +3.00
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)Loss -5.25
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x) Win +5
Marist ML -135 (4x)Win +4
Purdue -2 -106 (3x)PUSH
:cheers:
Baskets
NYK @ CLE (ADD : Cavs -9 -110 (2x) ) Loss -2.20 didnt know Q was playing would have only been over play.
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)LOSS -16.10
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)WIN +13.96
- Thanks to the NJ cold streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at +3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NJ but this is hard to pass up valuewise. Especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is there bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with a similiar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston. Boston has issues with there big men as Jefferson working his way back and Perkins is battling a nagging knee..
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x) Loss -3.18
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)Loss -6.85
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)Loss -8.89
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x) Loss -5.4
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)Loss -4.90
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)WIn +6.00
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)PUSH (would have played 2nd Over )
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x) L -1.2
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x) L -7.62
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206(1/2x) Win +6.03
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x) middled -6 -131 2nd H (2x)Loss -1.80
Ark St +25 -105 (4x) Loss -4.20 (one freakin pt)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)PUSH
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x) Loss -3.15 )2 damn points and would have played th 2nd H over)
Over 131.5 -110 WF (3x)Win +3.00
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)Loss -5.25
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x) Win +5
Marist ML -135 (4x)Win +4
Purdue -2 -106 (3x)PUSH
:cheers:
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