NBA Plays (Conference SF's)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular Season: 78-62-1 (+27.07)

Playoffs: 10-7-1 (+4.3)

Overall: 88-69-2 (+31.10)

Mixed bag so far, plays have been predominantly square.

CSF's is usually the money round.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (Game 1)

The play...

Spurs -6 -107 (2.14 to win 2)

:popcorn:
 
Like to play the home team off a sweep first up to open the 2nd round, has worked out well most of the time (hitting at around 75%).

Also like Pops off extra prep v Billy D.

My spread (6.5) agrees with Vegas.

Spurs 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU) last 5 seasons in Game 1 of a series.
 
Thanks Hugh.

Those refs though. Was hoping this crew would be deployed for Game 2.
 
emkee said:
Like to play the home team off a sweep first up to open the 2nd round, has worked out well most of the time (hitting at around 75%).

Also like Pops off extra prep v Billy D.

My spread (6.5) agrees with Vegas.

Spurs 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU) last 5 seasons in Game 1 of a series.
Click to expand...

As always, I wish you luck emkee. This query pretty much backs up your 75% figure: http://killersports.com/nba/query?s...d+p:series+game=+4+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

I do have a misgiving when I look at it more closely, because the last 5 games in this scenario have gone 2-3 ATS...I think the Thunder's biggest issue is the players on that team aren't real bright (but God bless Westbrook for the heart he brings to the game), and their attention spans usually max out at 5 or 6 minutes tops, but I am afraid the Spurs' formidable reputation might increase the Thunder's attention spans to the point where the Thunder cover and/or win...
 
Thanks Pip.

Think the Thunder will get Game 2, always hard to work shit out straight away.

Spurs' defense is built on making you take bad shots and is slightly complex, after the layoff I think this affects the Thunder initially.

Spurs this season have one of the top 15 defenses of all-time (they are ranked 12th),

And it is the best defense the Thunder have faced in any of their previous playoff experiences.

Billy D's schemes are pretty basic and a guy like Pop has the upper hand in the 1st game.

Gonna be a pretty good series either way.
 
nbafan88 said:
thanks for that stat.. unfortunately the refs will keep me off
Click to expand...

Yep, the refs sure do suck if you're on the home team but they can only influence the game so much.

We'll know what's up when Kawhi picks up 2 fouls early in the 1st quarter.

League will be looking to make this round as competitively epic as they can after the shitfest that was the 1st round.
 
A big Spurs win in this game goes a long way to setting up a solid play in Game 2 with added value.
 
Issue for the Spurs is the Thunder have two heads (KD and Muss) and the Spurs only have one Kawhi.

But at the end of the day the Spurs' bench gives them the edge, Thunder bench had their struggles vs the Mavs.

Spurs in 6 or 7.
 
Spurs 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) on 4 or more days rest in the playoffs.

Home faves of 6 or more are 57-14 SU (45-26 ATS) in the 2nd Round since the 2007 season.
 
Thanks fellas.

12-8-1 (+6.74)

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (Game 2)

The play...

Spurs -7.5 (2 units)

No zig-zag here, Billy D needs more than a day to figure shit out.

Will take a look at the Thunder in Game 3 or 4.

Spurs in a solid proven spot either way.

:popcorn:
 
Thought you said the blowout would give us good value on the thunder?
 
I did say that but once the 'blowout' passes the 30-point threshold the 'advantages' go to the dominant team.

Anticipated around a 15-20 point win, it was a massacre in the end so OKC not worth a look until this thing goes to Oklahoma.

Spurs in a 90% spot over the last 8 seasons given last game's MOV.
 
You cannot make drastic defensive adjustments in 1 day, merely playing harder does not solve this.

Both teams will somewhat revert to the mean,

And I expect a better effort by the Thunder but I still see nothing less than another double digit win for the Spurs.
 
Last edited:
As for the Cavs v Hawks series,

My Game 1 line is 5.5, plus the Cavs swept the Hawks last season in a playoff series.

So it's Hawks or nothing in Game 1.
 
Akif said:
Do you see it going under?
Click to expand...

The Over/Under is split pretty even in such 'spots', so no solid indicators to predict it.

Gun to head would lean towards the Over based on the crispness of the Spurs' offense and softness of OKC's defense.
 
Hawks the 2nd best defense in terms of efficiency this postseason, Spurs the obvious 1st.

Cavs' defense on the other hand is down there with the Mavs, Rockets, Pistons, Grizz and Hornets - all eliminated teams.

The Cavs 2nd ranked offense is what's keeping them afloat and again, the Spurs are 1st.

There is value in this series with Atlanta but they're a noted mentally weak team.

Will see how Game 1 plays out before getting involved, hopefully the Hawks upset tonight.
 
emkee said:
I did say that but once the 'blowout' passes the 30-point threshold the 'advantages' go to the dominant team.

Anticipated around a 15-20 point win, it was a massacre in the end so OKC not worth a look until this thing goes to Oklahoma.

Spurs in a 90% spot over the last 8 seasons given last game's MOV.
Click to expand...

I was hoping for some value on OKC as well, but the line is the same as it was for Game 1. I was anticipating the line going up a few points, which may have given that "value" we were looking for.

On the Spurs as well tonight, good luck Em.
 
Thanks Lareux.

Vegas never adjusts the spread more than 1-1.5 points off a Game 1 blowout,

fact they've added a lone point to where Game 1 opened is telling imo.

You only see multiple point adjustments in elimination games.

Average MOV for a home fave that won it's previous playoff game by 30+ is 12 points over the last 8 seasons,

Only team that failed to win and cover off a 30+ point win over that time,

was this 2015/16 Thunder team vs the Mavs in Game 2 of the 1st Round.
 
emkee said:
Thanks Lareux.

Vegas never adjusts the spread more than 1-1.5 points off a Game 1 blowout,

fact they've added a lone point to where Game 1 opened is telling imo.

You only see multiple point adjustments in elimination games.

Average MOV for a home fave that won it's previous playoff game by 30+ is 12 points over the last 8 seasons,

Only team that failed to win and cover off a 30+ point win over that time,

was this 2015/16 Thunder team vs the Mavs in Game 2 of the 1st Round.
Click to expand...


Bingo,

Unless injuries this is par for course in playoffs.
 
I only got to watch the 2nd half in full, choppy first half but man the first 6 minutes of1st, 3rd and 4th quarters are what killed the Spurs. They simply could not score.

1st = 4 pts
2nd = 18 pts
3rd = 9 points
4th = 6 points


37 points for half of the game starting quarters.

19 points for 38% of gametime.

That is what lost this game for them.
 
Yep, sure did.

Bad read on my part. Surprised the Spurs let home advantage slip given they're a better team than 2013 and OKC is an actual threat.

First time in playoff history that 2 home teams have won by 30+ in Game 1 and lost straight-up in Game 2,

Ironically both by 1 point (First Thunder, now Spurs).

Just a strange night, Thunder had the FT advantage by a decent margin but their bench got completely owned by SA's bench.
 
Worth noting that Adams messed up Timmay, never seen Duncan rattled.

Game 3 is huge.
 
emkee said:
Worth noting that Adams messed up Timmay, never seen Duncan rattled.

Game 3 is huge.
Click to expand...

real real big

i expect a good one and physical play

most anticipated game of the playoffs for me so far.....even more than those shitty game 7s in the Least
 
Raps and Meat both coming off Game 7's, so both technically in a bad spot.

Dubs playing at an unsustainable level right now, they are due to hit a wall.

Still looking.
 
adding...

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (Game 2)

The play...

Trail Blazers +9.5 (2 units)

:popcorn:
 
Contradicts my line, yeah. They're more a guide than anything else and don't really factor the overall impact of injuries.

Trust my predictive sims more and they're telling me the Dubs hit a wall, hard to feel confident fading GS either way.
 
Doesn't help that the Blazers are 3-13 SU (3-12-1 ATS) since 2010 on the road in the playoffs.

Raps v Heat is a hard one given both teams are off a Game 7.

Home teams off a Game 7 are 1-4 ATS (1-4 SU) last 5, Road teams off a Game 7 are 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) last 5.

And I don't trust the Heat vs the Raps with Carroll. Need to see how it plays out.

Lean Raps if anything.
 
never have i seen such gross endings then in this league

each time gets worse then the next and it doesnt surprise me

had 9.5 ....puke
 
Last night is officially my worst bad beat ever in my entire NBA betting career.

adding...

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 2)

The play...

Cavaliers -7 (2 units)

Random thoughts a bit later.

:shake2:
 
Yeap, thinking the same way. Doubt I will take it, but if there is the right team here, it's Cavs, no doubt.
Good luck!
 
emkee said:
Last night is officially my worst bad beat ever in my entire NBA betting career.

adding...

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 2)

The play...

Cavaliers -7 (2 units)

Random thoughts a bit later.

:shake2:
Click to expand...

Damnit! All the best MK
 
Hawks just don't match-up well with the Cavs, needed to watch Game 1 to again verify that.

Thought their new defensive structure could maybe cause issues, it can't.

Thompson owns them, LeCramps owns them.

Fact is the Hawks threw their best shot at Cleveland in Game 1 and still lost by double-digits.

Hawks a proven bad playoff road team, 6-28 SU (10-24 ATS) overall in this spot.
 
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